来源：中国新闻网 2026年宁夏灌区春小麦适宜播种期将自2月下旬开启 中新网银川2月10日电 (记者 杨迪)记者10日从宁夏气象局与宁夏农业农村厅召开的宁夏春播联合会商会 上获悉，2026年宁夏灌区春小麦适宜播种期将自2月下旬开启。 据宁夏气象科学研究所介绍，根据气候预测，预计宁夏今年灌区各地稳定通过0℃初日为2月23日-3月1 日，中部干旱带各地为2月25日-3月5日；灌区各地起潮时间为2月下旬至3月上旬，盛潮期在3月中旬， 落潮期在3月底，春潮强度吴忠市利通区及中卫市所辖县区正常，其他地区春潮强度偏强。 综合分析，预计宁夏2026年灌区春小麦适宜播种期为：石嘴山市2月26日-3月10日，银川市2月25日-3月 12日，吴忠市2月23日-3月13日，中卫市2月23日-3月15日；中部干旱带同心县2月25日-3月17日，海原县 3月5日-3月27日。 气象部门建议，各地农户应抓紧做好农机检修、物资准备及整地、施肥等备耕工作，密切关注气象信 息，根据实际适时早播，确保在适播期内完成播种工作；冬季气温偏高病虫越冬基数大，建议相关部门 指导农户做好药剂拌种，减轻病虫危害，组织技术人员深入田间地头，指导农户适期播种， ...

1月气温为历史同期第9高位 四川省气候中心提醒，预计2月全省除盆地北部外的其余大部地区降水仍然偏少，相关农区应密切关注 后期季节性冬干发展趋势，做好农田抗旱保墒工作和小春病虫害监测防治。 2026年1月，四川省平均气温5.7℃，相比常年同期偏高0.8℃，排历史同期第9高位；全省平均降水量6.4 毫米，偏少40%，排历史同期第9少位。 据川观新闻 预计2月，全省平均降水量为10.5毫米至12.5毫米，较常年同期（13.4毫米）偏少。其中，盆地北部平均 降水量较常年同期偏多一至二成，甘孜州、攀西地区平均降水量较常年同期偏少两成至五成，省内其余 地区平均降水量较常年同期偏少一成至两成。预计2月9日至28日，全省还将有1次降温降水天气过程， 出现在16日至18日。 气象监测显示，截至1月31日，四川全省156个国家级气象观测站中，有48站气象干旱持续，其中轻旱13 站、中旱21站、重旱10站、特旱4站（九寨沟、崇州、邛崃、荥经），中度及以上气象干旱主要分布在 甘孜州北部、阿坝州北部、凉山州中南部和盆地西部部分地区。 记者2月8日从四川省气象局获悉，2月四川延续1月偏暖、偏干的气候趋势，部分地区季节性冬干可能继 续发展 ...

"提前给出天气气候的变化信息，直接关系到每一个人的用电安全，更是国家能源决策的重要依据。"国 家气候中心主任巢清尘指出。据了解，今年的报告不仅优化了算法、提升了精度，更首次将水电纳入全 球年度预测体系，完成了从"风光"到"风光水"三位一体的关键拓展。 2月5日，中国气象局国家气候中心与全球能源互联网发展合作组织联合发布《全球风光水发电能力年景 预测2026》。报告显示，全球2026年风电平均可发电小时数约为2310，风电发电能力将增加6%；光伏 平均可发电小时数约为1340，光伏发电能力将增加约25%；水电发电能力相比2025年总体呈"稳中有 升"态势，将增长约7%。 中国风电平均可发电小时数为2100，总发电能力将提高约2%；光伏平均可发电小时数为1320，总发电 能力将提高约25%；预计全年西北地区来水将增多，西南来水可能减少。 跨学科合作精准"预见"发电量 "气候预测"和每个人的"用电安全"之间有什么关系？巢清尘举例，预测到夏季持续高温干旱，电网可提 前安排火电备用或省间电力互济，防止因空调负荷激增或水电出力不足导致停电；预测到寒潮大风，可 优化风电并网方案，避免频率波动。对社会用户而言，这意味着更稳定 ...

Climate Forecast for Guangxi in 2026 - The climate in Guangxi is expected to be generally average to subpar in 2026, with significant temperature fluctuations at the beginning of the year and potential low-temperature events [1] - The average annual temperature is projected to be between 20.5℃ and 21.5℃, which is higher than the historical average, with the possibility of high-temperature weather in summer and autumn [1] - The total annual precipitation is estimated to be between 1450mm and 1650mm, close to the historical average, with northern Guangxi receiving 10% to 30% more rainfall, while central and southern regions may see 10% to 20% less [1] Rainfall and Extreme Weather Events - The peak period for heavy rainfall is expected to occur mainly in May and June, with coastal areas experiencing it in July and August, leading to a high risk of flooding [1] - The first flood season (April to June) is anticipated to have 20% to 40% more rainfall in northern Guangxi, with risks of heavy rainfall and extreme precipitation events [1] - The second flood season (July to September) is projected to have 10% to 30% more rainfall in southern Guangxi, while northern regions may see 10% to 30% less, with higher average temperatures and increased number of high-temperature days [2]

Core Insights - The article highlights the advancements made by Hohai University in developing a self-controlled ocean-atmosphere coupling prediction system, which has significantly improved climate forecasting capabilities in China [1][2][3]. Group 1: Technological Advancements - The ocean-atmosphere coupling prediction system was developed to reduce reliance on foreign numerical models, addressing significant "bottleneck" risks in climate prediction [2]. - Key breakthroughs include the creation of multi-source ocean-atmosphere observation data assimilation technology, which efficiently integrates satellite, buoy, and vessel data [2]. - The development of ensemble filtering assimilation methods has enhanced the quantification of prediction uncertainties by converting single-value outputs into probabilistic ranges [2]. - A parameter estimation and correction system was established to optimize model parameters, significantly reducing model errors [2]. Group 2: Predictive Accuracy - In 2023, the system successfully predicted a moderate-strength El Niño event nine months in advance, with a prediction accuracy improvement of over 15% compared to international mainstream models [3]. - The system is capable of accurately forecasting other critical climate phenomena, such as the Indian Ocean Dipole, providing reliable climate support for major events like the Beijing Winter Olympics [3]. Group 3: Practical Applications - The prediction system has become an integral part of the national marine environment forecasting center, contributing to decision-making for flood prevention, drought relief, water resource management, food production, energy supply, and major engineering projects [4]. - The system has received national recognition, including certification from the China Meteorological Administration and a first-class award from Jiangsu Province for marine science and technology [4]. - Over the past decade, the team has transitioned from reliance on foreign models to developing a complete set of assimilation technologies, achieving a leap in China's marine environment forecasting capabilities [4].

Core Insights - A recent study reveals a persistent cold water zone in the North Atlantic that has resisted overall warming trends for over a century, linked to the long-term weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) [1][2] - The study enhances future climate predictions related to Europe, as AMOC significantly impacts European weather patterns [1] Group 1: AMOC and Climate Impact - The AMOC is a large ocean current system that regulates climate by transporting warm, salty water northward and cold water southward, acting like a conveyor belt [1][2] - The weakening of AMOC results in less warm, salty water reaching subpolar regions, leading to observed cooling and freshwater influx in the southern Greenland area [1][2] Group 2: Research Methodology - Researchers analyzed sea temperature and salinity data over the past century to reconstruct changes in the AMOC, comparing it with nearly 100 different climate models [2] - Only models simulating the weakening of AMOC aligned with real-world data, indicating the significance of this phenomenon [2] Group 3: Broader Implications - The cold water zone near southern Greenland is crucial as it is one of the most sensitive areas to ocean circulation changes, affecting weather patterns in Europe, altering rainfall, and modifying jet streams [2] - The slowdown of ocean currents may disrupt marine ecosystems due to changes in salinity and temperature affecting species habitats [2][3]