在"2025年厄尔尼诺及气候预测会商会"上，大屏幕上闪烁着一条代表厄尔尼诺演变的曲线，它正被最新 的海气耦合预测系统精准描绘。这条曲线并非完全依赖国外模式，而是由河海大学研发的自主可控的海 气耦合同化与预测系统生成的。研发团队通过对未来9个月热带太平洋海温的集合预报，展示了对海洋 与大气演变过程的深度洞察能力。通过这一系统，科研人员能够更加清晰地把握海气相互作用对气候异 常事件的驱动机制，为政策制定者提供更科学、精准的决策依据。 十年攻坚：从跟跑到并跑 "过去，我国的气候预测在很大程度上依赖国外数值模式，这带来了显著的'卡脖子'风险。"河海大学海 洋学院唐佑民教授坦言。为打破这一局面，2015年起，他带领团队集中攻关海气耦合同化技术，这一领 域长期被视为全球气候预测的难题。团队从理论研究入手，结合多源观测数据和数值模式，系统推进技 术攻关。经过多年努力，他们在三方面取得关键突破：一是创建了多源海气观测资料耦合同化技术，实 现卫星、浮标和船舶等数据的高效融合，解决了观测数据难以直接融入模式的问题；二是研发集合滤波 同化方法，将预测结果从单一值转化为带概率区间的集合输出，提高了预测的不确定性量化能力；三是 建立参 ...

Core Insights - A recent study reveals a persistent cold water zone in the North Atlantic that has resisted overall warming trends for over a century, linked to the long-term weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) [1][2] - The study enhances future climate predictions related to Europe, as AMOC significantly impacts European weather patterns [1] Group 1: AMOC and Climate Impact - The AMOC is a large ocean current system that regulates climate by transporting warm, salty water northward and cold water southward, acting like a conveyor belt [1][2] - The weakening of AMOC results in less warm, salty water reaching subpolar regions, leading to observed cooling and freshwater influx in the southern Greenland area [1][2] Group 2: Research Methodology - Researchers analyzed sea temperature and salinity data over the past century to reconstruct changes in the AMOC, comparing it with nearly 100 different climate models [2] - Only models simulating the weakening of AMOC aligned with real-world data, indicating the significance of this phenomenon [2] Group 3: Broader Implications - The cold water zone near southern Greenland is crucial as it is one of the most sensitive areas to ocean circulation changes, affecting weather patterns in Europe, altering rainfall, and modifying jet streams [2] - The slowdown of ocean currents may disrupt marine ecosystems due to changes in salinity and temperature affecting species habitats [2][3]