Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current climate is in a weak La Niña state, which is significantly weakening and transitioning to ENSO neutral. The probability of neutrality from March to May is about 60%, the probability of the continuation of weak La Niña is about 30%, and the probability of El Niño is about 10% [1] - Affected by La Niña, the overall precipitation in the central - southern part of Brazil is low, the temperature is high, and the soil humidity is low. It is expected that the precipitation in the central - southern part of Brazil will fall to a seasonally low level in late March, with low soil humidity and falling temperature. As La Niña fades, precipitation in Brazil is expected to increase and the temperature to fall [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Sugarcane Growth Conditions and Stages - Different growth stages of sugarcane have different temperature, precipitation, and light requirements. For example, the germination stage requires a soil moisture content of 20% - 30% and a temperature of 26 - 32°C; the tillering - elongation stage requires a daily average temperature of ≥25°C and a large amount of water, accounting for 55% - 60% of the whole growth period [10] - Different countries and regions have different sugarcane growth seasons. In Brazil, the central - southern region is in the tillering - elongation stage in 2 - 7 months and the harvesting - pressing stage in 7 - 10 months; in India, the sowing - germination stage is from July to September, and the tillering - elongation stage is from September to December [10] Sugarcane Production and Trade in Different Regions - Brazil is the country with the largest sugarcane planting area in the world. About 50% - 60% of its sugarcane is used to produce ethanol, and its sugar production depends on the profit comparison between sugar and ethanol. It is also the largest sugar exporter, with sugar exports accounting for 75% - 80% of its production [17] - India is the second - largest sugar - producing country, with its production affected by natural factors. It is also the largest sugar - consuming country, and its production determines whether it exports sugar [17] - Thailand is the second - largest sugar exporter most of the time, with an annual production of about 10 million tons and exports accounting for 70% - 85% of its production [17] Sugarcane Production in China - In China, the sugarcane planting area in the south is relatively stable, while the beet planting area in the north is determined by farmers according to planting income. Guangxi is the largest sugar - producing area in China, accounting for more than 60%, and Chongzuo is the "Sugar Capital" of China, accounting for 9% of the national sugar - producing area [15] Weather Conditions in Brazilian Sugarcane Producing Areas - The central - southern part of Brazil is in the sugarcane tillering stage, which requires a continuous high - temperature environment (effective accumulated temperature of 5000 - 6500°C) and a water - holding capacity of 65% - 70%. Drought can lead to fewer tillers and insufficient effective seedlings [1] - The precipitation in the central - southern part of Brazil has improved recently, and the soil humidity has also improved [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybean: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Palm Oil: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Soybean Meal: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Corn: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Live Pigs: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear downward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Eggs: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias, with a driving force for an upward trend, but poor operability on the market [1] Core Views - The prices of domestic soybeans are weak, and the marginal supply has increased due to continued auction on the policy side. The futures contracts are likely undergoing position transfer operations. The subsequent price guidance depends on the impact of the Middle - East situation on energy prices, as well as macro - expectations and capital trends [2] - The US is expected to increase the soybean planting area in 2026. The domestic soybean crushing volume in March is expected to increase year - on - year. The prices of soybeans and soybean meal are affected by multiple factors such as the US - Iran situation, energy and fertilizer markets, Trump's visit to China, and climate changes [3] - The US EPA's new regulations on renewable fuels have been implemented, and the market has taken profit. The Middle - East situation has different impacts on biodiesel in the US and Indonesia. The supply chain risks of agricultural products are still uncertain, and the subsequent price guidance depends on the Middle - East situation and macro - expectations [4] - After the US biodiesel policy details are clear, the focus of the rapeseed market may return to the supply side. The supply of rapeseed and rapeseed products is expected to increase, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [6] - The prices of corn in some ports are stable or slightly down. The increase in wheat auction volume may impact corn prices. The futures are mainly weak [7] - The far - month contracts of live pigs are weak, and the industry's over - capacity needs to be reduced. The supply - demand situation is loose this year, and the pig prices have no reversal logic [8] - The egg futures show a volatile trend. The egg - laying hen inventory is expected to decline in the next five months, and the spot prices have the basis to strengthen [9] Summary by Category Soybean - The price of domestic soybeans is weak, and the policy - side auction has increased marginal supply. The futures contracts are likely in the process of position transfer. The previous week, 104,000 tons of soybeans were auctioned, with 64,900 tons actually traded at a base price of 4,500 yuan/ton and an average transaction price of 4,505 yuan/ton [2] Soybean and Soybean Meal - The US is expected to plant 85.549 million acres of soybeans in 2026, higher than the previous value and the USDA's February forecast. The domestic soybean crushing volume in March is expected to be about 8.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2 million tons. Multiple factors affect the prices of soybeans and soybean meal [3] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - The US EPA has raised the production and consumption of renewable fuels. The market has taken profit after the policy is implemented. The Middle - East situation has different impacts on biodiesel in the US and Indonesia. The supply chain risks of agricultural products are uncertain [4] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - After the US biodiesel policy is clear, the focus of the rapeseed market may return to the supply side. The supply of rapeseed and rapeseed products is expected to increase, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [6] Corn - The prices of corn in some ports are stable or slightly down. The increase in wheat auction volume may impact corn prices. The futures are mainly weak, and attention should be paid to the grain - selling progress in the Northeast, state - reserve auction information, and futures capital trends [7] Live Pigs - The far - month contracts of live pigs are weak, and the industry's over - capacity needs to be reduced. The supply - demand situation is loose this year, and the pig prices have no reversal logic. The current pig prices need to remain low to promote capacity reduction [8] Eggs - The egg futures show a volatile trend. The egg - laying hen inventory is expected to decline in the next five months, and the spot prices have the basis to strengthen. The futures are at a premium to the spot, and attention should be paid to whether the futures prices stabilize and rise at low levels [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The commodity market declined 0.25% last week, with precious metals leading the decline at 2.75%, while non - ferrous and black metals rose 2.14% and 0.55% respectively. The market may continue to oscillate due to factors such as the Middle East situation and liquidity tightening [2][7]. - The short - term commodity market is expected to be mainly volatile as the market repeatedly assesses the Middle East war situation, with high oil prices potentially lasting longer, a relatively strong US dollar, and continued liquidity tightening [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Overall Performance**: The commodity market fell 0.25% last week. Precious metals led the decline at 2.75%, agricultural products and energy - chemical products dropped 1.15% and 0.12% respectively, while non - ferrous and black metals increased 2.14% and 0.55% [2][7]. - **Volatility**: The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market increased significantly last week. Energy - chemical varieties mostly had obvious volatility increases, and gold and coking coal also saw large volatility increases [2][7]. - **Fund Flow**: The overall market scale continued to decline, with only the black sector having a small net inflow of funds, and the main outflow coming from the precious metals sector [2][7]. 3.2 Outlook for Different Sectors - **Precious Metals**: There is a huge difference in the cease - fire demands between the US and Iran, and the war is unlikely to end in the short term. The market sentiment fluctuates with information about the US - Iran war, and the sector will oscillate until the war situation becomes clearer [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The Middle East situation dominates trading. The strong US dollar index exerts pressure, but the resource attributes of non - ferrous varieties are prominent. With the price decline, downstream replenishment and production are active, and inventory inflection points appear, supporting prices. The short - term sector may oscillate [3]. - **Black Metals**: The apparent demand for rebar continued to pick up, production decreased, and inventory continued to decline. Blast furnaces are in the seasonal resumption of production, and hot metal output is rising, but poor steel mill profits limit the upward space. Iron ore shipments may be affected by the hurricane in Australia, and domestic port inventories are seasonally decreasing. Geopolitical conflicts support coking coal prices. The short - term sector may be stable [3]. - **Energy**: It is difficult for Iran and the US to reach a cease - fire agreement in the short term, and the situation escalated over the weekend. There is a large gap between the capacity of alternative oil pipelines in the Middle East and the normal transportation volume of the Strait of Hormuz. In the short term, oil prices have high two - way volatility risks, and in the long term, the key variable for oil price trends is the smooth passage of the Strait of Hormuz [3]. - **Chemical Industry**: The turmoil in the Middle East strongly supports the cost side of the chemical sector. Asphalt and methanol may have strong upward elasticity and limited downward space. For olefins, high prices squeeze downstream profits, and demand is expected to weaken. For aromatic varieties, downstream polyester, printing and dyeing, and textile industries have slight capacity increases, but terminal follow - up is slow [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: Agricultural products fluctuate with crude oil. The expected El Niño climate model and the undetermined time of Trump's visit to China increase the sector's uncertainty. During the new crop planting period, the fertilizer market's contradictions need time to be observed, and the planting structure and crop yields need to be monitored. The short - term sector may oscillate [4]. 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - **Gold ETFs**: Most gold ETFs had negative weekly returns, with an average decline of about 4% and a combined scale decline of 3.89%. The trading volume also decreased significantly [37]. - **Other ETFs**: The energy - chemical ETF had a 3.35% return, the feed bean粕 ETF declined 2.82%, the non - ferrous metal ETF rose 1.43%, and the silver futures (LOF) declined 1.28% [37].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of natural rubber is expected to increase while demand remains stable in the second quarter. The price of natural rubber may maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern. The supply of butadiene rubber is expected to contract while demand remains stable, with increased cost - side disturbances. The prices of natural rubber and synthetic rubber may further diverge [62]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Price: Futures Market Fluctuates Widely - The uncertainty of weather in the rubber - producing areas will increase the volatility of rubber prices. International trade tariff barriers may lead to a slowdown in external demand, while domestic demand aims to keep car sales stable in the second quarter under the guidance of the stable - growth work plan [62]. 3.2 Supply: El Niño Event, Increased Uncertainty in Weather - **Global Natural Rubber Production**: In the second quarter of 2026, global natural rubber production will increase quarter - on - quarter. For example, in January 2026, the production of ANRPC members was 1,055.9 thousand tons, with a year - on - year increase of 8.3% [5][7]. - **Overseas Main - producing Countries' Exports**: The total exports of overseas main - producing countries increased year - on - year [9]. - **Demand in Europe, America, Japan, and South Korea**: The demand for natural rubber in Europe, America, Japan, and South Korea is limited [10]. - **China's Rubber Imports**: From January to February 2026, China imported a total of 1.404 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. However, the import volume in February was 601,000 tons. The import volume of China's rubber is expected to show an increasing trend in the second quarter [13]. - **Supply of Butadiene and Butadiene Rubber**: The capacity utilization rate of butadiene decreased. The net import of butadiene rubber turned into net export. In February 2026, the export volume of butadiene rubber was 24,896 tons, exceeding the import volume of 24,106 tons [16][22][23]. 3.3 Demand: Supported by Stable Growth - **Tire Demand**: The demand growth momentum of semi - steel tires is restricted. The start - up rate of all - steel tires increased and the inventory decreased slightly, while the start - up rate of semi - steel tires slowed down and the inventory remained high. From January to February, the cumulative export volume of rubber tires reached 1.55 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.5% [26][31][35]. - **Automobile Production and Sales**: Automobile production and sales are stable with a slight increase. The demand for heavy - duty trucks decreased seasonally in February [36][37]. 3.4 Inventory: Inflection Point in the Accumulation of Natural Rubber Inventory - **Qingdao Natural Rubber Inventory**: The inventory in Qingdao is accumulating. As of March 13, 2026, the total inventory was 692,100 tons [39][40]. - **Exchange Inventory of Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: As of March 27, the warehouse receipt of natural rubber was 125,410 tons, and the total exchange inventory was 137,630 tons. The warehouse receipt of No. 20 rubber was 43,646 tons, and the total exchange inventory was 45,763 tons [44]. 3.5 Position: Low Position - **RU Contract Position**: The position of the RU contract is presented in the form of charts, showing the position changes of different contracts over time [45]. - **NR and BR Positions**: As of March 20, 2026, the total position of natural rubber was 209,074 lots, the total position of No. 20 rubber was 93,261 lots, and the total position of BR was 114,718 lots [47]. 3.6 Options - **Natural Rubber Options**: The historical volatility and the ratio of put - to - call positions and trading volumes of natural rubber options are presented [50][52]. - **Butadiene Rubber Options**: The historical volatility and the ratio of put - to - call positions and trading volumes of butadiene rubber options are presented [56][59].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q2 2026, Zhengzhou cotton has strong bottom support, but there are short - term callback risk factors in the fundamentals. Further upward breakthrough requires the implementation of policies and continuous follow - up of downstream demand. The global cotton supply is difficult to increase significantly, and the slow depletion of the previous surplus inventory will improve the global supply - demand pattern. The domestic demand has certain resilience, but the export growth rate may gradually decline [3][114][115]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Zhengzhou Cotton**: In Q1 2026, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton traded around "production reduction expectation" and "demand recovery". The adjustment of Xinjiang's cotton planting area and the recovery of downstream demand supported the upward movement of the center of gravity. Although there were short - term suppressions, the overall upward trend was obvious [8]. - **US Cotton**: In Q1 2026, the main contract of US cotton showed a "V" - shaped trend. The market logic shifted from "terminal demand concerns" to "supply contraction expectation + marginal improvement in exports". The expectation of reduced planting area and the improvement of export conditions drove the price to rebound [9]. 3.2 Overseas Cotton Market Supply - Demand Analysis - **Global Supply - Demand Balance Overview**: In the 2025/2026 cotton year, the global cotton output increased slightly, consumption decreased slightly, imports and exports increased slightly, and the ending inventory and inventory - to - consumption ratio increased. The adjustment of this report has a slightly bearish impact on the global market [11][12][13]. - **Global Climate Overview**: In 2026, the climate will change from La Nina to El Nino. El Nino may lead to a significant increase in the risk of production reduction in the Northern Hemisphere and a relatively favorable situation in the Southern Hemisphere. The global cotton output may decline slightly [17][18]. - **US Market Supply - Demand Situation**: - **Area and Yield**: The new - year planting area is expected to decline, and the drought in the main producing areas will restrict the yield. The total output in 2026/27 is expected to decrease by about 2.3% [28][29]. - **Exports**: As of March 19, the signing volume was lower than the same period, but the shipment volume was higher. In the future, with the improvement of global textile demand and China's procurement willingness, the export prospects are expected to improve [32][33]. - **Inventory**: In the 2025/26 cotton year, the US cotton is still in a state of inventory accumulation, but there is room for marginal improvement in the inventory - to - consumption ratio [35][36]. - **Brazilian Market Supply - Demand Situation**: In the 2026/27 cotton year, the planting area is expected to decrease by 5%, and the yield is expected to decrease by 6.9%. The export is in a downward channel, but the new - season supply contraction will support the price [39][40]. - **Indian Market Supply - Demand Situation**: In the 2026/27 cotton year, the output is expected to be the same as the previous year. The domestic textile consumption is recovering, but the export is under pressure. The overall supply - demand pattern is expected to remain relatively loose [43][44]. 3.3 Domestic Cotton Market Supply - Demand Situation - **China's Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: According to the USDA and BCO, in the 2025/26 cotton year, China's cotton output increased, consumption increased slightly, and imports increased slightly. In the 2026/27 cotton year, the output is expected to decline, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is expected to converge [45][46][47]. - **Industrial Progress**: As of late March, the cotton inspection was nearing completion, and the sales rate of new cotton had reached over 74%. The core contradiction is the inventory depletion rate of ginning mills and the purchasing willingness of downstream spinning mills [50]. - **Output**: In the 2026/27 cotton year, the output is expected to decline. The actual implementation of the production reduction task may face challenges, and the actual reduction in 2026 may be 5 - 8% [53][54]. - **Imports**: In the early stage of 2026, cotton imports were strong, but the annual import volume is expected to be relatively low. Imported yarn may suppress the domestic cotton price. The import tariff of US cotton has been reduced, but there are still uncertainties [64][65][66]. - **Inventory**: China's cotton commercial inventory is at a high level, but the year - on - year increase has been significantly alleviated. The inventory depletion expectation is relatively optimistic, but the potential release of state - reserve cotton needs to be noted [78][79]. - **Demand**: - **Load and Profit**: As of March 21, the operating rates of spinning and weaving mills were higher than the same period. The profit of spinning mills showed a V - shaped trend. However, there may be some demand front - loading factors, and the high operating load may face a decline pressure [86][87][89]. - **Retail and Consumption**: In January - February 2026, the retail sales of clothing and textiles increased significantly. After the Spring Festival, the growth rate is expected to slow down. In the long - term, the consumption structure is still restricted by population and debt [90][91][94]. - **Exports**: In January - February 2026, China's textile and clothing exports increased significantly. However, the subsequent replenishment order space in the US is limited, and the export growth rate may decline [105][106][113]. 3.4 Market Outlook - In the short term, the new - cotton inventory pressure and the issuance of import quotas will suppress the cotton price. In the long term, with the implementation of Xinjiang's target price subsidy policy and the start of downstream replenishment demand, the supply - demand situation will improve, and the cotton price is expected to rise. However, it is necessary to pay attention to potential risks such as macro - environment changes, policy implementation, and abnormal weather [114][115][117].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand drive for natural rubber is weakening, but the strengthening of synthetic rubber limits the downside space and momentum of natural rubber. The price range of Shanghai rubber at the beginning of the year is raised to the range of 15,000 - 19,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to go long at the lower edge of the range on a single - side basis and pay attention to arbitrage opportunities such as going long on NR and short on RU, as well as going long on NR and short on mixed rubber [8][80] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In Q1 2026, Shanghai rubber showed a trend of "rising first, then falling, and oscillating downward", with the price center gradually moving down. The core contradiction shifted from tight supply to an expectation of loose supply. The main contract price fluctuated between 15,885 yuan/ton and 17,600 yuan/ton. In the early stage (January - February), it rebounded due to seasonal supply tightness, and in March, it declined as the supply was expected to increase [14][15] - The spread structure of Shanghai rubber RU2609 - RU2605 changed from near - month premium to near - month discount. The RU - NR spread first widened and then narrowed. Synthetic rubber BR changed from a large discount to a large premium over natural rubber [19] 3.2 Macroeconomic Fundamentals - The US - Iran war may drag down global economic growth. The conflict has led to a significant increase in oil and gas prices, with the INE crude oil price rising by over 58% from March 2nd to March 23rd, and the Brent crude oil spot price reaching a record high at the end of March. It is expected that the global oil supply will decrease by 8 million barrels per day in March. The growth of major global economies is expected to slow down in 2026 [27][29] - Inflation pressure is transmitted through three channels, compressing the space for monetary policy easing. Central banks around the world face difficult choices, and there is a risk of recession or stagflation in the world economy [30][32][33] 3.3 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream 3.3.1 Upstream Supply and Raw Materials - ANRPC predicts that in 2026, global natural rubber production will increase by 2.2% to 15.324 million tons, and consumption will increase by 1.4% to 15.602 million tons. In Q2, domestic and overseas production areas will enter the tapping season. If there is no abnormal climate, the overall supply in the market is expected to increase, and the downward pressure on costs due to increased supply may become more obvious after Q2 [34][40] 3.3.2 Imports and Inventory - In 2026, the domestic import volume decreased slightly year - on - year. In February, the import volume of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) was 601,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25.16%. As of March 22, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was at a medium - to - high level, and it may enter a destocking process after Q2 [43][45] 3.3.3 Downstream Demand - In the first two months of 2026, the tire industry showed a "weak domestic demand, strong export, and structural differentiation" pattern. Tire exports increased by 12.1% year - on - year. The automobile market was "cold domestically, hot overseas, with overall pressure and structural differentiation". Exports were the core support, with a year - on - year increase of 48.4%. The heavy - truck market was "stable domestically, strong in exports, and with structural upgrading", with exports increasing by 30.98% year - on - year [51][53][56] 3.4 Cost - Profit and Spread Analysis 3.4.1 Cost - Profit Analysis - In Q1, the raw material prices of natural rubber in Thailand showed an upward trend, with the price of glue reaching a quarterly high of 76 Thai baht/kg in March. The processing profit of natural rubber in Thailand was under pressure, with STR20 standard rubber in continuous loss and RSS3 smoked sheet rubber remaining profitable [63][64][66] 3.4.2 Spot - Futures Spread Analysis - In Q1, the non - standard spot - futures spread of Shanghai rubber first widened and then narrowed. Due to the low number of Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts and the uncertainty of state reserve purchases, it is recommended to conduct phased trading in non - standard operations [70] 3.4.3 Disk Spread Analysis - The RU - NR spread first widened and then narrowed in Q1, and it is still at a relatively high level compared to the same period in history. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to the opportunity to narrow the RU - NR spread. The strengthening of synthetic rubber limits the downside space and momentum of natural rubber [74]

Group 1 - The article discusses the unexpected decline of gold as an asset during the recent conflict, contrasting with the historical notion that gold benefits from war [2][4] - It highlights a market shift from inflation concerns to growth concerns, indicating that investors are now more worried about economic recession rather than inflation itself [5][6] - The article notes a collective hawkish shift among central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve, which has led to a collapse of rate cut expectations, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold [6][7] Group 2 - The article examines the potential for agricultural products to take over from declining chemical products, emphasizing rising planting costs and the impact of weather patterns on crop yields [15][16] - It discusses the dynamics of different agricultural products, noting that while chemical products are influenced by oil prices, agricultural products have their own growth cycles that may provide more sustained price increases [18][19] - Specific agricultural products are analyzed, such as cotton, which is supported by rising costs and government subsidies, and sugar, which is influenced by oil prices and Brazilian production decisions [21][24] Group 3 - The article outlines the volatility in the methanol market driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the impact of supply disruptions from Iran [73][76] - It presents data showing a significant reduction in methanol imports and rapid depletion of port inventories, indicating a tightening supply situation [78][79] - The domestic supply of methanol is constrained, with high operating rates limiting the ability to compensate for reduced imports, raising concerns about future availability [80][82] Group 4 - The article highlights the complexities of the apple market, noting low inventory levels but also a lack of quality fruit available for delivery, leading to price discrepancies [58][60] - It discusses the impact of consumer behavior and competing fruits on apple demand, suggesting that while there may be short-term spikes in demand, long-term pressures could emerge [62][66] - The article emphasizes the uncertainty surrounding weather conditions in April, which could significantly affect future apple production and pricing [67][70]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Buy**: 豆一 (★★★), 豆油 (★★★), 标油 (★★★), 薬油 (★★★), 豆粕 (★★★), 菜粕 (★★★), 玉米 (★★★), 生猪 (★★★), 鸡蛋 (★☆☆) [1] Core Views - The prices of domestic soybeans are weak, and the marginal supply will increase due to the continued auction next week. The futures contract is likely undergoing a rollover operation. The price guidance needs to focus on the impact of the Middle - East situation on energy prices, as well as macro - expectations and capital trends [2]. - The international crude oil price fluctuates greatly. The planting area and inventory of US soybeans are expected to increase. The soybean and soybean meal market needs to pay close attention to multiple factors such as the US - Iran situation, energy and fertilizer markets, Trump's visit to China, and climate changes [3]. - The prices of soybean oil and palm oil rise following the increase in crude oil prices. The Middle - East situation affects the biodiesel market, and the supply chain risk of agricultural products is uncertain. The price guidance depends on the Middle - East situation, macro - expectations, and capital trends [4]. - The vegetable oil and meal market shows an oil - strong and meal - weak trend. The supply of rapeseed meal is expected to be abundant, and the oil - meal ratio of rapeseed is expected to fluctuate at a high level [6]. - The Dalian corn futures continue to fluctuate weakly. The increase in the auction volume of state - supported wheat may impact corn prices [7]. - The spot price of live pigs continues to decline, and the industry's over - capacity needs to be reduced. The medium - term reversal of pig prices is difficult to achieve [8]. - The spot price of eggs generally rises. The egg - laying hen inventory is expected to decline in the next five months, and a long - position strategy at low prices is recommended [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans - Domestic soybeans decline, and the marginal supply will increase due to the auction. The futures contract may be rolling over. The price is affected by the Middle - East situation and macro - factors [2]. - The international crude oil price fluctuates, and the US soybean planting area and inventory are expected to increase. Multiple factors affect the soybean and soybean meal market [3]. Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - The prices rise with the increase in crude oil prices. The Middle - East situation affects the biodiesel market, and the supply chain risk of agricultural products is uncertain [4]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The market shows an oil - strong and meal - weak trend. The supply of rapeseed meal is expected to be abundant, and the oil - meal ratio is expected to fluctuate at a high level [6]. Corn - The Dalian corn futures fluctuate weakly. The increase in wheat auction volume may impact corn prices [7]. Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs declines, and the industry's over - capacity needs to be reduced. The medium - term reversal of pig prices is difficult [8]. Eggs - The spot price of eggs rises. The egg - laying hen inventory is expected to decline, and a long - position strategy at low prices is recommended [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - In late February 2026, the Southern Oscillation Index was 11, a typical La Niña atmospheric signal, but the oceanic La Niña state ended in January 2026, entering the ENSO neutral state. There is a mismatch between the ocean and the atmosphere, and it is possible to enter the El Niño state in the late spring [1] - This week, rainfall in the Malay Archipelago was unevenly distributed, mainly concentrated in most parts of Indonesia and eastern Malaysia. The soil humidity in some areas of Malaysia and Indonesia is poor and may face drought risks [2] - In the next two weeks, overall rainfall in the production areas will be limited [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weather and Climate Index - The Southern Oscillation Index value at the end of February 2026 was 11, indicating a typical La Niña atmospheric signal. The El Niño index as of the end of January 26 was -0.39, higher than the La Niña threshold, meaning the oceanic La Niña state ended in January and entered the ENSO neutral state [1] - There is a mismatch or lag in the coupling between the ocean and the atmosphere, which is a common scenario during the transition from La Niña to neutral (and possibly eventually to El Niño) in the ENSO cycle. El Niño may occur as early as April or as late as late summer or early autumn [1] Rainfall Conditions - This week, rainfall in the Malay Archipelago was unevenly distributed, mainly concentrated in most parts of Indonesia and eastern Malaysia. The rainfall in Jambi and Central Kalimantan in Indonesia was relatively less, and the rainfall in the Malay Peninsula remained scarce [2] - In the next two weeks, overall rainfall in the production areas will be limited [4] Soil Humidity Conditions - The soil humidity in Johor and Pahang in Malaysia is poor. In Indonesia, the soil in Riau, Jambi, the southeastern part of North Sumatra, the northeastern part of South Sumatra, a small part of West Kalimantan, and the southern part of Central Kalimantan is relatively dry. If the deep - soil humidity continues to decline, there will still be a drought risk in the future [2] - The monthly situation shows that the situation in the Malay Peninsula in April is expected to be slightly worse, but there may be a slight improvement after May [2] - The soil humidity in most parts of Indonesia improved in March, but the soil in the Malay Peninsula remained dry [14] Conditions of Each Production Area - **Jambi, Indonesia**: Rainfall increased at the end of the season, but the improvement in soil humidity was limited [24] - **West Kalimantan, Indonesia**: Rainfall was average, and the soil moisture decreased at the end of the month [30] - **Central Kalimantan, Indonesia**: Rainfall showed an increasing trend, and the soil humidity was restored [37] - **East Kalimantan, Indonesia**: Heavy rain occurred at the end of February, and the soil humidity continued to be restored [45] - **Riau, Indonesia**: Rainfall increased limitedly, and the soil humidity continued to decline [53] - **South Sumatra, Indonesia**: Rainfall increased, but the soil moisture remained at a low level [60] - **North Sumatra, Indonesia**: Rainfall was limited, and the soil humidity did not improve [66] - **Johor, Malaysia**: Rainfall was scarce in the first quarter, and the soil moisture was poor [72] - **Pahang, Malaysia**: The rainfall was still scarce, and the increase in soil humidity was insufficient [79] - **Perak, Malaysia**: Rainfall was generally limited in the first quarter, and the soil humidity was insufficient [86] - **Sabah, Malaysia**: The cumulative rainfall was abundant, and the soil was relatively moist [92] - **Sarawak, Malaysia**: Rainfall was acceptable, and the soil humidity continued to rise [98]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report The report focuses on the impact of the Iran - US situation on various financial and commodity markets. The tense situation in the Middle East, especially the potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, has led to significant fluctuations in multiple markets. It has affected the prices of precious metals, foreign exchange, stocks, bonds, and various commodities, and different markets show different trends and investment opportunities based on their own fundamentals and geopolitical factors [2][3][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Iran's new supreme leader calls for continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a nearly 2% drop in gold prices. The two - year US Treasury yield has been rising, and funds are flowing to more certain crude oil and chemical products, putting pressure on precious metals. Short - term liquidity tightening expectations increase, and precious metals are under pressure [3][12]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the risk of decline [13]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US Treasury Secretary says the US Navy will escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, and is not worried about the fiscal cost of the Iran war. Trump's positive attitude towards the Iran war reduces the short - term possibility of TACO, weakens market risk appetite, and causes the US dollar to rise [14][15]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index will continue to strengthen [16]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Iran's new leader states that it will not give up revenge and will continue to close the Strait of Hormuz. The US energy minister says the navy is not ready for escort. The short - term situation in the Middle East is still uncertain, and the high oil price has led to inflation concerns and a decrease in the expectation of interest rate cuts this year, putting pressure on the US stock market [17][18]. - Investment advice: The US stock market will continue to be under pressure in the short term, and it is recommended to take a risk - averse and wait - and - see approach [19]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Tax data shows that the sales of high - tech industries in the first two months have increased well. The US has launched a "301" clause investigation against 16 countries and regions. The tense situation between the US and Iran has led to high energy prices, affecting the stock market. Energy and coal - chemical stocks are strong, while technology stocks are weak [20][21]. - Investment advice: For the stock index, it is recommended to go long on dips for the unilateral strategy and go long on IM and short on IF for the hedging arbitrage strategy [22]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 24.5 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net investment of 1.5 billion yuan. The reduction of inter - bank deposit interest rates is a short - term disturbance. Inflation is likely to be the main factor in the bond market. As time goes by, the probability of an increase in the oil price center is rising. After the market digests the news of the reduction of inter - bank deposit interest rates, the cost - performance of short - term short - selling is slightly higher than that of long - buying [23]. - Investment advice: After the market digests the positive news, the cost - performance of short - term short - selling is slightly higher [24]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - On March 12, the price of low - calorie steam coal in Indonesia remained stable. The market trading was cold, and the downstream purchasing intention was poor. As the conflict continues, the probability of the domestic port spot price rising after 1 - 2 months is increasing [25]. - Investment advice: Continuously pay attention to overseas energy and oil and gas changes [25]. 2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - Due to the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, several iron ore ships originally bound for the Middle East have changed their routes to China. The BHP long - term contract negotiation has affected the market, and the iron ore price has been impacted by factors such as rising crude oil costs and negotiation disturbances in the past week, but the market trading sentiment is not high [26][27]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see [27]. 2.3 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - From January to February, the production and sales of commercial vehicles increased. As of March 12, the inventory of five major varieties increased slightly, with the inventory of building materials increasing and the inventory of coils starting to decrease slightly. The cost is supported by energy prices, but the high inventory and weak demand limit the upward space of steel prices [28][29]. - Investment advice: Steel prices may fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the fundamentals still limit the upward space [30]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - La Nina is about to end, and El Nino may come in the middle of the year. The increase in crude oil prices, CBOT soybean futures prices, and shipping costs has increased the cost of imported soybeans in China. The market is worried about the shortage of imported soybeans from March to April, and the near - month futures price of soybean meal has reached a new high [5][31][33]. - Investment advice: Soybean meal may remain strong in the short term. Pay attention to the Middle East situation, US biofuel policy, Sino - US relations, China's purchase of US soybeans, domestic reserves, customs policies, and the actual arrival of Brazilian soybeans from March to April [33]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - As of March 12, the average inventory of feed enterprises decreased slightly. The supply of corn is expected to increase as the weather warms up, and the port inventory in the south is accumulating. The downstream demand has support, but there are still risks such as concentrated grain sales in the Northeast and potential disturbances from wheat auctions [34]. - Investment advice: In the short term, the market is affected by multiple factors. In the medium and long term, the price is expected to stabilize and rebound, but the upward range is limited. Pay attention to weather, corn reserve purchase policies, and wheat auction dynamics [35]. 2.6 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The lithium production guidance of Australian Liontown in the 2026 fiscal year remains unchanged. The inventory of lithium carbonate shows different trends in different sectors. The supply is affected by multiple factors, and the demand in March has increased as expected. In the short term, the demand is supported, but there are uncertainties in the long term [36][37][38]. - Investment advice: In the short term, the spot is relatively loose, but the direct demand is still supported. In the long term, there is a high - level logic of new energy replacing old energy. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips after the price correction [39]. 2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Platinum) - The prices of platinum and palladium have declined slightly, mainly following the fluctuations of precious metals. The geopolitical situation is still tense, and the supply and demand fundamentals of platinum and palladium have changed. In the short term, they may fluctuate, and platinum may perform better than palladium [40][41][42]. - Investment advice: For the unilateral strategy, wait and see in the short term and manage positions well; for the arbitrage strategy, use the reverse - spread idea for the month - spread, wait and see for the internal - external spread, and pay attention to the opportunity of going long on platinum and short on palladium in the medium term [42]. 2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead shows a discount, and the domestic social inventory of lead ingots has increased. The import of refined lead has increased, and the consumption of lead is weak. The price of lead may continue to be weak, but there is support at the cost of recycled lead [43][44]. - Investment advice: For the unilateral strategy, pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips in the medium term; for the arbitrage strategy, wait and see [45]. 2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc shows a discount, and the domestic social inventory of zinc ingots has increased. The geopolitical situation affects the zinc market, and the domestic supply and demand are weak. The zinc price has priced in the previous disturbances, and the risk of recession trading is increasing [46][48]. - Investment advice: For the unilateral strategy, wait and see in the short term and manage positions well; for the arbitrage strategy, wait and see for the month - spread and maintain the internal - external positive - spread idea in the medium term [49]. 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Harmony Gold has achieved copper production, and the environmental assessment of Peru's Trapiche copper project has been approved. The new situation in the Middle East has reignited concerns about rising energy prices, and the short - term copper price will be affected by negative sentiment. The domestic inventory accumulation has slowed down, and the spot is expected to maintain a premium [50][51][53]. - Investment advice: For the unilateral strategy, wait and see in the short term; for the arbitrage strategy, pay attention to the internal - external positive - spread operation [53]. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Tin) - The LME tin shows a discount, and the domestic warehouse receipts of tin futures have increased. The supply of tin ore has eased in the short term, but there are uncertainties in the long term. The demand is currently weak [54][55][56]. - Investment advice: Affected by the situation in the Middle East, it will mainly operate in a weak and volatile manner [57]. 2.12 Energy Chemicals (Fuel Oil) - The fuel oil inventory in Singapore has increased. The price difference between low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oil has reversed, and the low - sulfur fuel oil is stronger. As long as the escort operation in the Strait of Hormuz does not make a breakthrough, the price difference is expected to continue to widen [58][59][60]. - Investment advice: There is still an upward risk in the short - term price of low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oil [61]. 2.13 Energy Chemicals (PX) - On March 12, the PX price increase expanded. The supply of PX is affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and the downstream polyester factories' willingness to reduce production has increased. Due to the shortage of raw materials and the expectation of continuous inventory reduction, PX is expected to remain strong in the short term [62][63]. 2.14 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The weekly output of styrene has decreased. The trading logic of styrene is related to the recovery of the Strait of Hormuz. If the flow rate cannot recover to more than 25% of the normal level by the end of March or early April, there is a risk of a short squeeze in April. The long - term impact may lead to an increase in the price center of mid - stream chemicals [64][65][66]. - Investment advice: The high volatility of the absolute price of styrene is expected to continue. In a high - volatility state, it is recommended to use light positions. Be vigilant against the potential short - squeeze risk [66]. 2.15 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - This week, the inventory of float glass manufacturers has decreased. The glass market is affected by the rise in crude oil prices, but the fundamentals are under pressure. The follow - up inventory reduction is difficult [67]. - Investment advice: The glass futures may fluctuate greatly in the short term due to the impact of the energy market and its own low price [67]. 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - As of March 12, the inventory of soda ash manufacturers has decreased slightly. The soda ash market is affected by energy prices, but the supply is still in a state of over - capacity. There is short - term support, and it is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the energy price inflection point [68][69]. 2.17 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - COSCO Shipping has stopped all services at a port in Panama. The spot market has both positive and negative factors. The cost of long - term contracts is rising, but the short - term cargo - booking pressure is still large. Affected by the geopolitical situation, the market is expected to fluctuate widely [70][71][72]. - Investment advice: The market is expected to maintain a wide - range volatile pattern [72].