南华期货天然橡胶产业周报 ——多头情绪旺，供需仍承压，宏观与地缘政治扰动加强 边舒扬（投资咨询证号：Z0012647） 研究助理： 黄超贤（期货从业证号：F03147169） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年3月2日 中国干胶周度社会库存季节性 source： 上海钢联,南华研究 万吨 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 01/01 03/01 05/01 07/01 09/01 11/01 100 120 140 160 固定资产投资完成额与分项累计增速 source： 同花顺,南华研究 亿元 % 固定资产投资完成额当月值 基础设施建设投资累计同比(右轴) 房地产业累计同比(右轴) 交通运输、仓储和邮政业累计同比(右轴) 制造业累计同比(右轴) 23/06 23/12 24/06 24/12 25/06 25/12 25000 50000 75000 -20 0 ∗ 近端交易逻辑 RU仓单偏低，有助于近月合约估值偏强运行，05合约前国内处于停割期，价格较多锚定宏观情绪，且目 前现货去库，估值偏强将带来一定支撑。 一、核心矛盾及策略建议 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current weak La Nina phenomenon may last until February 2026 and gradually transition to ENSO neutral, with a probability of over 45% of turning into a weak El Nino phenomenon between June and August, which may intensify weather disturbances in the rubber - producing areas [1]. - There are precipitation and temperature issues in various rubber - producing areas around the world. For example, there are low - temperature and less - rain conditions in China's Yunnan and Hainan, which may lead to drought and forest fire risks; some areas in Thailand, Vietnam, and other countries also face different degrees of precipitation and temperature problems that affect rubber production [2][4]. - The supply of global natural rubber has obvious seasonality, with the high - yield period from September to November and the low - yield period from February to March. The production cycle of each producing area is affected by geographical and climate characteristics, and different weather factors need to be focused on [215]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Important Meteorological Warnings - **Climate Dynamics**: The Nino3.4 index is - 0.5 (- 0.1), and the weak La Nina phenomenon continues. It may last until February 2026 and gradually transition to ENSO neutral, with over 45% probability of turning into a weak El Nino between June and August. The DMI index of the Indian Ocean Dipole is - 0.63, and the Madden - Julian Oscillation is in the third - stage area with an increasing trend [1]. - **Chinese Producing Areas**: Yunnan is in the off - season, with low precipitation and normal soil humidity. Low - temperature and less - rain conditions lead to thorough leaf - falling of rubber trees, and the risk of powdery mildew spread is low. In Hainan, rainfall is less than the same period, soil humidity is decreasing, and there may be large - scale meteorological drought in spring, with high forest fire risks [2]. - **Foreign Producing Areas**: Thailand is out of the rainy season, with low soil humidity and less rainfall recently. Vietnam has less rain, and the glue output in high - altitude areas is affected by low - temperature at night. Cambodia is at the end of the tapping season with less rain. Myanmar has a risk of drought due to less rain. Laos has less rain and decreasing soil humidity. Indonesia has increased rain disturbances, and Malaysia is in the peak rainy season [4][5]. 3.2 Producing Area Rainfall Data Summary - The report provides the weekly precipitation data of major natural rubber producing areas, including monthly cumulative precipitation, monthly year - on - year percentage, weekly cumulative precipitation, weekly difference, this - week forecast precipitation, and next - week forecast precipitation [7][9]. 3.3 Producing Area Sudden Disaster Monitoring - There is a tropical depression in the south - west Indian Ocean, which may slightly affect the southeastern Indian and Sri Lankan producing areas. Thailand's main producing areas have less rain, and most river water levels are low. Yunnan and Hainan have less precipitation, high forest fire risks, and the weak El Nino from June to August may affect the first - half - year output if there is still less rain in the second quarter [10]. 3.4 Weather Conditions in Each Producing Area - **Chinese Producing Areas**: It includes 7 - day and 30 - day precipitation forecasts, 7 - day and monthly deep - soil average humidity forecasts for Hainan and Yunnan, as well as various meteorological indicator tracking data such as daily precipitation distribution, monthly precipitation distribution, annual cumulative precipitation, soil humidity anomaly, temperature comparison, and average wind speed [12][16]. - **Indochina Peninsula Producing Areas**: It provides 7 - day and 30 - day precipitation forecasts, 7 - day and monthly deep - soil average humidity forecasts, and meteorological indicator tracking data for Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, Myanmar, and Laos [62][64]. - **Malay Archipelago Producing Areas**: It includes 7 - day and 30 - day precipitation forecasts, 7 - day and monthly deep - soil average humidity forecasts, and meteorological indicator tracking data for Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines [128][135]. - **South Asian Producing Areas**: It provides 7 - day and 30 - day precipitation forecasts, 7 - day and monthly deep - soil average humidity forecasts, and meteorological indicator tracking data for India and Sri Lanka [162][164]. - **West African Producing Areas**: It includes 7 - day and 30 - day precipitation forecasts, 7 - day and monthly deep - soil average humidity forecasts, and meteorological indicator tracking data for the Cote d'Ivoire producing area [193][194]. 3.5 Appendix - **Appendix 1**: Global natural rubber is mainly planted in Southeast Asia, accounting for about 80%. Thailand's planting area accounts for about 1/4, and Indonesia's about 1/5. In terms of output, Thailand accounts for over 30% globally, Indonesia about 15%, and Cote d'Ivoire over 10% [203]. - **Appendix 2**: The phenological period of rubber trees is divided into five stages, and the new - leaf growth period is sensitive to weather and prone to diseases and pests. Long - term natural rubber output depends on planting area and tree - age structure, while short - term output is affected by weather [212][213]. - **Appendix 3**: The supply of global natural rubber has obvious seasonality, with the high - yield period from September to November and the low - yield period from February to March. The production cycle of each producing area is affected by geographical and climate characteristics [215].

橡胶与商品指数走势对比 橡胶与原油及石化指数走势 source： wind,南华研究,同花顺 南华工业品指数 南华橡胶指数(右轴) 南华商品指数(右2轴) 点 24/06 24/12 25/06 25/12 3500 4000 4500 5000 150 175 200 225 250 2200 2400 2600 2800 3000 source： 同花顺,南华研究 元/吨 RU主力收盘价 INE原油主力收盘价(右轴) 南华石油化工指数(右2元轴/桶) 24/06 24/12 25/06 25/12 10000 12500 15000 17500 20000 400 500 600 700 800 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 . 南华期货天然橡胶产业周报 ——节前基本面驱动有限，随情绪区间波动为主 边舒扬（投资咨询证号：Z0012647） 研究助理： 黄超贤（期货从业证号：F03147169） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年2月9日 一、核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 目前橡胶基本面支撑与压力并存。上游原料进入低产季，库存与进口偏多，下游长假开 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Agricultural Products Industry Overview - The conference focused on the agricultural products sector, particularly on major grains, soybeans, and corn, amidst significant price fluctuations in international commodities [1][17]. Key Points on Soybean Meal - Recent volatility in soybean meal prices, with the main contract reaching a high of 2800 RMB per ton before declining due to macroeconomic sentiment [1][2]. - Brazilian soybean harvest is progressing well, with production estimates raised from 1.7 million tons to 1.8 million tons, contributing to bearish sentiment in soybean meal prices [2][4]. - As of January 31, Brazil's soybean harvest was 11.4% complete, slightly behind the five-year average of 11.8% [2][4]. - Brazilian soybean freight rates have decreased, indicating a potential increase in supply, although internal transport costs remain high due to truck demand [3][4]. - The impact of La Niña weather patterns on soybean production is significant, particularly for Argentina, where adverse conditions could lead to reduced yields [6][8][9]. Key Points on Corn - Domestic corn production is expected to be higher than last year, but quality issues in North China due to weather have led to a shortage of high-quality corn for feed [18][19]. - Low inventory levels in the supply chain have been noted, with trade sentiment being bearish prior to December, leading to lower stocking rates [36]. - The overall corn market is characterized by a balance between supply and demand, with prices expected to remain stable despite potential tightening in April [22][23]. - The influence of external factors, such as weather patterns and import policies, is crucial in determining future corn prices [22][26]. Additional Insights - The conference highlighted the importance of monitoring weather patterns, particularly La Niña and El Niño, as they significantly affect agricultural yields and market dynamics [6][8][34]. - The relationship between corn and soybean prices is complex, with potential for substitution depending on price differentials and market conditions [29][30]. - The overall sentiment in the agricultural sector remains cautious, with expectations of stable prices unless significant weather events occur [34][35]. Conclusion - The agricultural products sector is currently experiencing fluctuations driven by macroeconomic factors, weather conditions, and supply chain dynamics. Investors are advised to monitor these variables closely for potential opportunities and risks in the market [1][34].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Positive Outlook (★★★)**: Soybean No. 1, Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, Corn [1] - **Slightly Positive Outlook (★☆☆)**: Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Live Pigs, Eggs [1] Core Views - The overall performance of agricultural products futures is affected by multiple factors including macro - economic trends, supply - demand dynamics, and international relations. Different varieties show different trends and investment opportunities [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Soybean No. 1 - The main contract of domestic soybeans has increased in positions and risen strongly. The re - inflation trading of commodities has a spill - over effect. The spot market is stable, with tight supply but improved marginal supply from policy auctions. Demand may improve marginally with the approaching festival [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - Drought in Argentina and a weak US dollar have led to a bottom - oscillating and slightly stronger trend in US soybeans. China has completed a high proportion of soybean purchases for 2 - 3 month shipments. Attention should be paid to Brazilian soybean harvest and Canadian rapeseed imports which may impact domestic soybean meal prices. Short - term bottom - oscillating pattern is expected [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The overall strength of commodities and re - inflation trading have a spill - over effect. Due to multiple positive drivers, they are more favored. The oil - meal ratio has fallen back, and the palm oil has performed more strongly. High - frequency data shows an improvement in palm oil's supply - demand. Indonesian policies and the rise of RIN prices in the US are beneficial for the prices [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed products have generally risen. Domestic coastal oil mills have zero rapeseed crushing, and there is support from pre - Spring Festival stocking. Geopolitical factors and US biofuel policies are positive, but imports are expected to be more relaxed after March, limiting the short - term rebound space [6] Corn - Spot prices in Northeast China and North Ports are stable. Some Shandong deep - processing enterprises have raised purchase prices. The Dalian corn futures are expected to oscillate in the short term [7] Live Pigs - The live pig futures have continued to decline, with a supply - strong and demand - weak situation. With the approaching Spring Festival, there is an acceleration of slaughter. There is a possibility of a second bottom - hitting in pig prices in the medium - to - long term [8] Eggs - The egg futures have continued to be weak. The spot price is stable, but there is a risk of a decline after the festival. The futures price reflects the expected weakening of the spot market, and the improved profit has increased the pressure on the 2026 far - month contracts. However, there is still a basis for egg prices to strengthen in the first half of 2026 [9]

【豆油&棕榈油】 今日商品整体表现偏强,宏观方面大宗商品再通胀交易呈现扩散状态,对豆油棕榈油也有一定的溢出效应,由 于油脂驱动偏多，因此更受到青睐。美豆走强，美元偏弱以及市场担心阿根廷大豆产区温度偏高，豆粕也呈现 反弹状态，油粕比冲高回落，豆棕价差下跌，棕榈油表现更为强势。棕榈油高频数据显示供需面边际转好。另 外印尼方面的种植园国有化政策,利于增强政策的定价权。美豆油方面RIN价格继续上涨,利于美国生物质柴油 行业利润转好，利于支撑美豆油价格。2026年气象模型预计夏季发生厄尔尼诺概率大，总体来看，利于油脂表 现偏强。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据，转载请注明出处 | | | | '/ V SDIC FUTURES | | 2026年01月29日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 豆一 | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | ☆☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | な女女 | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | な女女 | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 標｜油 | ななな | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜粕 ...

(原油) 隔夜夜盘铜价震荡调整，但美盘铜尾盘随贵金属收回跌势。昨日美伦价差盘中反转，LME现货贴水扩 至93美元。贵金属短线波动大，市场焦点转向地缘、美国政府月底"停摆"、甚至美国内部冲突风 险。关注短期均线位置强弱,延续铜价高位震荡且倾向调整的看法。 【铝】 夜盘油价大幅反弹，Brent原油涨至接近67美元/桶，NTI接近63美元/桶。冬季风暴天气导致美国能 源基础设施和电网承压，石油生产商在上周末损失的产量最高达200万桶/日，约占全国产量的 15%。据悉Tengiz油田在2月7日之前恢复不到一半的正常产量，该油田自火灾和停电事故后恢复始 终不及预期。API库存数据显示原油去库,数据偏利多。美元指数连续走弱亦提振油价表现。意外天 气导致原油供应受限的因素迅速得到计价，然目前三大机构平衡表显示202601全球原油市场库存压 力显著，市场谨慎对待天气和地缘因素带来的短期供应犹动，供需宽松始终是压制油价上行空间的 长期因素。 【责金属】 隔夜美元指数刷新近四年新低，贵金属延续强势运行，黄金逻辑稳固，银铂兜波动风险较高。特朗 普称美国已向伊朗方向派遣了一支庞大的海军舰队，但希望最终无需动用武力。关注中东局势演绎 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Palm oil is affected by multiple factors and is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term; soybean oil lacks US soybean themes, and the oil - meal ratio is rising [1] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: Palm oil主力 closed at 8,944 yuan/ton (daily session) with a 1.27% increase and 8,914 yuan/ton (night session) with a - 0.34% change; soybean oil主力 closed at 8,084 yuan/ton (daily and night sessions) with a 0.50% and 0.00% change respectively; rapeseed oil主力 closed at 9,002 yuan/ton (daily session) with a 0.61% increase and 8,966 yuan/ton (night session) with a - 0.40% change; Malaysian palm oil主力 closed at 4,198 ringgit/ton (daily session) with a 1.06% increase and 4,178 ringgit/ton (night session) with a - 0.45% change; CBOT soybean oil主力 closed at 53.74 cents/pound with a - 0.50% change [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Palm oil主力 had a trading volume of 502,993 lots with a change of 15,880 lots and an open interest of 467,244 lots with a change of 21,301 lots; soybean oil主力 had a trading volume of 262,334 lots with a change of 34,073 lots and an open interest of 755,020 lots with a change of 27,775 lots; rapeseed oil主力 had a trading volume of 208,357 lots with a change of 5,655 lots and an open interest of 258,788 lots with a change of 7,475 lots [1] - **Spot Prices**: Palm oil (24 - degree, Guangdong) was at 8,980 yuan/ton with a 130 - yuan increase; first - grade soybean oil (Guangdong) was at 8,700 yuan/ton with a 70 - yuan increase; fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil (Guangxi) was at 9,980 yuan/ton with a 100 - yuan increase; Malaysian palm oil FOB was at 1,055 dollars/ton with a 15 - dollar increase [1] - **Basis**: Palm oil (Guangdong) basis was 36 yuan/ton; soybean oil (Guangdong) basis was 616 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil (Guangxi) basis was 978 yuan/ton [1] - **Price Spreads**: The rapeseed - palm oil futures主力 spread was 58 yuan/ton (previous trading day) and 115 yuan/ton (two trading days ago); the soybean - palm oil futures主力 spread was - 860 yuan/ton (previous trading day) and - 788 yuan/ton (two trading days ago); the palm oil 5 - 9 spread was 46 yuan/ton (previous trading day) and 38 yuan/ton (two trading days ago); the soybean oil 5 - 9 spread was 86 yuan/ton (previous trading day) and 96 yuan/ton (two trading days ago); the rapeseed oil 5 - 9 spread was 29 yuan/ton (previous trading day) and 9 yuan/ton (two trading days ago) [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - SGS data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from January 1 - 20, 2026 are estimated to be 658,379 tons, a 2.70% decrease compared to the same period last month [2] - The USDA reported that private exporters sold 192,350 tons of soybeans for delivery in the 2025/2026 marketing year to unknown destinations [3][4] - ABIOVE expects Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/2026 season to reach 1.77124 billion tons, up from 1.71481 billion tons in the previous year, and exports in 2026 to reach 1.115 billion tons, up from 1.082 billion tons in 2025 [4] - Hedgepoint estimates Brazil's 2025/2026 soybean production at 1.795 billion tons, higher than the previous estimate of 1.78 billion tons. As of January 16, the soybean harvest rate in Brazil was 3%, up from 1% the previous week [4] - The Australian Bureau of Meteorology's latest weekly report indicates that as of the week of January 18, the relative Nino 3.4 sea - surface temperature index was - 0.91°C, indicating La Nina. However, warming of the subsurface seawater suggests it is in the early stage of weakening. Tropical Pacific SST may return to ENSO - neutral by the end of February and remain so from March to May. El Nino may occur from June, which usually brings drought to Asia, but the prediction accuracy is low at this stage. MJO forecasts show that trade winds may weaken in the next two weeks, accelerating the decline of La Nina [4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity is 0, and soybean oil trend intensity is 0 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the La Niña phenomenon on global commodity markets, highlighting the increasing uncertainty in pricing due to climate changes and geopolitical factors. It emphasizes the historical correlation between extreme weather events and commodity price fluctuations, indicating that the current weak La Niña may still disrupt supply chains and affect prices across various sectors [3][4][10]. Weather Outlook - A weak La Niña has been established, expected to transition to neutral conditions by spring 2026. The current La Niña is not anticipated to cause widespread cold winters due to global warming trends, but it may still influence global circulation patterns and lead to unusual precipitation anomalies [5][11][16]. - The probability of transitioning to El Niño conditions by the third quarter of 2026 has risen to over 60%, which could increase the frequency of extreme weather events [5][12][22]. Commodity Impact - Weather disturbances are expected to affect different commodity sectors in varied ways, with energy, metals, and agricultural products each responding differently to temperature and precipitation changes [6][35]. Energy Sector - In North America, natural gas prices are expected to rise due to increased heating demand, with NYMEX prices projected to range between $4-5 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) during the off-season [6][36][37]. - European natural gas prices are anticipated to decrease due to low inventory levels despite a warm winter, with TTF prices expected to drop to $9-10 per MMBtu [6][40][42]. Metals Sector - Heavy rainfall may disrupt production and transportation in key mining regions, particularly in Indonesia and South America, leading to increased costs and production interruptions [7][49][50]. - The impact of La Niña on aluminum prices may arise from increased electricity costs due to reduced hydropower generation in affected regions [7][53]. Agricultural Sector - The La Niña phenomenon is expected to have a limited impact on South American soybean production, with Brazil's soybean yield projected to reach 178 million tons, a 4% increase from the previous year [8][66][67]. - Palm oil production in Southeast Asia is also expected to remain stable, with short-term bullish expectations despite some localized weather disturbances [8][72].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - A weak La Niña phenomenon has formed and is expected to last until early 2026, currently having limited impact on palm oil - producing areas [1]. - Recent rainfall in the Malay Archipelago has increased, with significant improvement in soil moisture in southern Peninsular Malaysia and some areas in Indonesia. However, the rainfall is not persistent, and there is a risk of soil drying in 2026 [1]. - Short - term catastrophic weather disturbances are insufficient, but continuous attention should be paid to areas with low soil moisture. If the situation does not improve, it may affect palm oil production in the second half of next year [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 El Niño and Southern Oscillation Index - Since October, the Southern Oscillation Index has exceeded the threshold of 1, and the El Niño index was - 0.55 as of the end of November, indicating the formation of a La Niña phenomenon [1]. 3.2 Precipitation Forecast in Producing Areas - Recent rainfall has improved, and rainfall in southern Peninsular Malaysia has increased [3]. 3.3 Soil Moisture in Producing Areas - **Indonesia** - In Jambi, soil moisture has improved year - on - year at the end of the year [22]. - In West Kalimantan, soil moisture has increased, but cumulative precipitation is lower year - on - year [28]. - In Central Kalimantan, the soil moisture level is higher year - on - year [34]. - In East Kalimantan, precipitation is abundant, and the soil is moist [41]. - In Riau, rainfall has slightly improved at the end of the year, but soil moisture is still slightly behind the same period in previous years [47]. - In South Sumatra, soil moisture is currently low, but it is expected to exceed last year's level at the end of the year [54]. - In North Sumatra, rainfall is limited at the end of the year, and soil moisture remains low [58]. - **Malaysia** - In Johor, rainfall has increased, and soil moisture has improved [65]. - In Pahang, rainfall has returned to a low level, and the increase in soil moisture is insufficient [71]. - In Perak, rainfall has decreased at the end of the year, and soil moisture has declined [78]. - In Sabah, cumulative rainfall is abundant, and the soil is relatively moist [83]. - In Sarawak, cumulative rainfall is insufficient, and soil moisture is the same as last year [89].