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新濠国际发展(00200.HK):预期春节期间表现强劲
Ge Long Hui· 2026-02-14 14:01
Performance Review - The company reported 4Q25 net revenue of $1.293 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 1%, recovering to 89% of 4Q19 levels [1] - Adjusted property EBITDA was $331 million, up 12% year-on-year but down 13% quarter-on-quarter, recovering to 81% of 4Q19 levels, which was below the Visible Alpha consensus estimate of $341 million [1] - The performance was primarily impacted by rising operational costs and underperformance of overseas properties [1] Development Trends - Management indicated a strong start for 2026, with market share growth in Macau's gaming revenue, expecting strong performance during the 2026 Chinese New Year [1] - The marketing rebate environment in Macau's gaming industry remains competitive but is stabilizing, with no signs of intensified competition [1] - Details of the licensing fee contract with Melco International Development (200.HK) were disclosed: a 10-year term starting January 2024, with fees set at 1.5% of gross revenue from City of Dreams Macau (excluding the Hyatt Hotel), with no upper limit [1] - The average daily operational cost for the company's Macau business in 4Q25 was $3.3 million, primarily due to one-time expenses from various events, with expectations to decrease to $3.2 million in 1Q26 due to activities during the Chinese New Year and new brand promotion plans [1] - Management anticipates the renovation of the Nüwa Hotel at City of Dreams Macau to be completed by 3Q26, along with upgrades to the retail area [1] - The property sale plan for City of Dreams Manila has been paused, with the company waiting for valuation recovery before reassessment [1] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company has raised its EBITDA forecasts for 2026 and 2027 by 1% to HKD 8.754 billion and HKD 9.946 billion, respectively [2] - The current stock price corresponds to 7.2 times the 2026 EV/EBITDA [2] - The company maintains an outperform rating and a target price of HKD 5.60, reflecting a 21% discount to net asset value and a 16% upside potential from the current stock price [2]