1. Report Type and Date - Report Type: Black Metal Weekly Report [1] - Date: January 23, 2026 [2] 2. Research Team - Black Variety Research Team: Researchers include Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, and Feng Zeren [4] 3. Investment Strategy Recommendations 3.1 Unilateral Strategies | Strategy Type | Target | Latest Price | Direction | Dominant Factors | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Unilateral | RB2605 | 3142 | Oscillating Strongly | Global financial market risk appetite rebounds, energy prices spill over to metal markets, five major steel products output rises for four consecutive weeks, demand falls, coke price increase acceptance rises, steel mills replenish iron ore, and Mongolian coal customs volume rebounds [6] | | Unilateral | HC2605 | 3305 | Oscillating Strongly | National electricity load hits winter record, coke enterprises are in continuous losses, steel mills replenish coke, positive news on demand and energy supply, and fundamental supply - demand balance [6] | | Unilateral | J2605 | 1722 | Oscillating Strongly | National electricity load hits winter record, coke enterprises are in continuous losses, steel mills replenish coke, positive news on demand and energy supply, and fundamental supply - demand balance [6] | | Unilateral | JM2605 | 1157 | Oscillating Strongly | National electricity load hits winter record, Mongolian coal customs volume rebounds, coke enterprises replenish coking coal, positive news on demand and energy supply, and fundamental supply - demand balance [6] | 3.2 Spread Strategies | Strategy Type | Target | Latest Price | Direction | Dominant Factors | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Inter - period Spread | I2605 | 795 | Rebound | Decline in Australian and Brazilian shipments and arrivals, increase in five major steel products output, slight rise in daily hot - metal output, improvement in steel mill profitability, pre - holiday inventory replenishment, and high port inventory [6] | 3.3 Cross - Variety Spread Strategies - RB05 - 07, J05 - 09, JM05 - 09, I05 - 09, RB/I, HC - RB, J/JM: Specific trading directions are not provided [6] 4. Logic Basis for Strategies 4.1 RB2605 and HC2605 - Message: Global financial market risk appetite rebounds, and energy prices spill over to metal markets [7] - Fundamentals: Five major steel products output rises, demand falls, and inventory increases. Iron ore price rebounds, and coke price increase acceptance rises. Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments fall, arrivals rise, port inventory is high, and steel mills replenish iron ore. Mongolian coal customs volume rebounds, and supply - demand is balanced [7][8] - Forecast: Prices are expected to be oscillating strongly, and medium - to - long - term long positions can be established on dips [8] 4.2 J2605 and JM2605 - Message: National electricity load hits winter record, and energy prices rise due to geopolitical tensions [9] - Fundamentals: Coke enterprises are in continuous losses, coke output falls, port and steel mill coke inventories rise, Mongolian coal customs volume rebounds, and coking coal inventory in coke enterprises rises [10] - Forecast: Prices are expected to be oscillating strongly, and long positions can be tried on dips [10] 4.3 I2605 - Message: BHP accepts lower prices, and Rio Tinto and BHP plan joint development, causing price drops. But fundamentals are improving [13] - Fundamentals: Australian and Brazilian shipments fall, arrivals are expected to decline. Five major steel products output and hot - metal output rise, steel mill profitability improves, port inventory is high, and steel mills are in pre - holiday inventory replenishment [11][12] - Forecast: Prices are expected to rebound after a decline, but the upside is limited due to high port inventory [13] 5. Steel Market Analysis 5.1 Fundamentals - Price: Main rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices fall [14] - Production and Capacity: Blast furnace capacity utilization and key steel enterprises' crude steel output rise. Daily hot - metal output rises, and EAF capacity utilization falls. Rebar output rises, and hot - rolled coil output falls. Steel mill and social inventories change in different directions [14][17][22] - Downstream Demand: Real estate investment declines, while automobile, metal - cutting machine tool, and household appliance production increase [22] - Apparent Consumption and Profit: Rebar and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption fall, and rebar contract loss narrows [26] - Spot Profit: Long - process and short - process rebar spot profit shows different trends [31] 5.2 Conclusions and Recommendations - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Prices are expected to be oscillating strongly, and medium - to - long - term long positions can be established on dips [33][36] - Basis: Rebar basis is expected to oscillate and narrow, with a range of 90 - 160 yuan/ton. Hot - rolled coil basis is expected to oscillate within - 50 to 20 yuan/ton [36][38] 6. Coke and Coking Coal Market Analysis 6.1 Fundamentals - Price: Coke prices are stable, and coking coal prices rise [40] - Production and Capacity: Coke output from independent coking plants falls, and that from steel enterprises rises. Coking plant capacity utilization falls, and steel enterprise capacity utilization rises [40] - Inventory and Profit: Coke port, steel mill, and coking plant inventories change in different directions. Coking enterprises are in continuous losses. Sample mine output,开工率, and inventory rise. Coking coal imports decline, and coking plant and steel mill inventories rise [43][48] - Monthly Output: National raw coal and coke output increase [50] 6.2 Conclusions and Recommendations - Coke and Coking Coal: Prices are expected to be oscillating strongly, and long positions can be tried on dips [53][54] 7. Iron Ore Market Analysis 7.1 Fundamentals - Price: 62% Platts iron ore index and Qingdao Port PB powder price fall. High - grade and low - grade ore price spreads change [55] - Inventory and Shipping: Port iron ore inventory rises, and daily shipping volume falls. Steel mill inventory and inventory days increase [59] - Shipment and Arrival: Australian and Brazilian shipments fall, and arrivals are expected to decline [61] - Domestic Production: Domestic iron ore output declines, and mine capacity utilization rises. Market transactions improve, but environmental risks exist [68] - Port Transactions and Cost: Port iron ore transactions increase, and steel mill iron water cost rises [70] - Hot - Metal Output and Steel Production: Hot - metal output rises, and steel mill profitability improves [72] - Steel Output and Inventory: Five major steel products output rises, consumption falls, and inventory increases [74][75] - Transportation Cost: Iron ore freight rates mostly rise [77] 7.2 Conclusions and Recommendations - Iron Ore: Prices are expected to rebound after a decline, but the upside is limited due to high port inventory. The basis is expected to oscillate within 40 - 100 yuan/ton [83][84]