1. Report Type and Date - Report Type: Black Metal Weekly Report [1] - Date: January 23, 2026 [2] 2. Research Team - Black Variety Research Team: Researchers include Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, and Feng Zeren [4] 3. Investment Strategy Recommendations 3.1 Unilateral Strategies | Strategy Type | Target | Latest Price | Direction | Dominant Factors | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Unilateral | RB2605 | 3142 | Oscillating Strongly | Global financial market risk appetite rebounds, energy prices spill over to metal markets, five major steel products output rises for four consecutive weeks, demand falls, coke price increase acceptance rises, steel mills replenish iron ore, and Mongolian coal customs volume rebounds [6] | | Unilateral | HC2605 | 3305 | Oscillating Strongly | National electricity load hits winter record, coke enterprises are in continuous losses, steel mills replenish coke, positive news on demand and energy supply, and fundamental supply - demand balance [6] | | Unilateral | J2605 | 1722 | Oscillating Strongly | National electricity load hits winter record, coke enterprises are in continuous losses, steel mills replenish coke, positive news on demand and energy supply, and fundamental supply - demand balance [6] | | Unilateral | JM2605 | 1157 | Oscillating Strongly | National electricity load hits winter record, Mongolian coal customs volume rebounds, coke enterprises replenish coking coal, positive news on demand and energy supply, and fundamental supply - demand balance [6] | 3.2 Spread Strategies | Strategy Type | Target | Latest Price | Direction | Dominant Factors | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Inter - period Spread | I2605 | 795 | Rebound | Decline in Australian and Brazilian shipments and arrivals, increase in five major steel products output, slight rise in daily hot - metal output, improvement in steel mill profitability, pre - holiday inventory replenishment, and high port inventory [6] | 3.3 Cross - Variety Spread Strategies - RB05 - 07, J05 - 09, JM05 - 09, I05 - 09, RB/I, HC - RB, J/JM: Specific trading directions are not provided [6] 4. Logic Basis for Strategies 4.1 RB2605 and HC2605 - Message: Global financial market risk appetite rebounds, and energy prices spill over to metal markets [7] - Fundamentals: Five major steel products output rises, demand falls, and inventory increases. Iron ore price rebounds, and coke price increase acceptance rises. Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments fall, arrivals rise, port inventory is high, and steel mills replenish iron ore. Mongolian coal customs volume rebounds, and supply - demand is balanced [7][8] - Forecast: Prices are expected to be oscillating strongly, and medium - to - long - term long positions can be established on dips [8] 4.2 J2605 and JM2605 - Message: National electricity load hits winter record, and energy prices rise due to geopolitical tensions [9] - Fundamentals: Coke enterprises are in continuous losses, coke output falls, port and steel mill coke inventories rise, Mongolian coal customs volume rebounds, and coking coal inventory in coke enterprises rises [10] - Forecast: Prices are expected to be oscillating strongly, and long positions can be tried on dips [10] 4.3 I2605 - Message: BHP accepts lower prices, and Rio Tinto and BHP plan joint development, causing price drops. But fundamentals are improving [13] - Fundamentals: Australian and Brazilian shipments fall, arrivals are expected to decline. Five major steel products output and hot - metal output rise, steel mill profitability improves, port inventory is high, and steel mills are in pre - holiday inventory replenishment [11][12] - Forecast: Prices are expected to rebound after a decline, but the upside is limited due to high port inventory [13] 5. Steel Market Analysis 5.1 Fundamentals - Price: Main rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices fall [14] - Production and Capacity: Blast furnace capacity utilization and key steel enterprises' crude steel output rise. Daily hot - metal output rises, and EAF capacity utilization falls. Rebar output rises, and hot - rolled coil output falls. Steel mill and social inventories change in different directions [14][17][22] - Downstream Demand: Real estate investment declines, while automobile, metal - cutting machine tool, and household appliance production increase [22] - Apparent Consumption and Profit: Rebar and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption fall, and rebar contract loss narrows [26] - Spot Profit: Long - process and short - process rebar spot profit shows different trends [31] 5.2 Conclusions and Recommendations - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Prices are expected to be oscillating strongly, and medium - to - long - term long positions can be established on dips [33][36] - Basis: Rebar basis is expected to oscillate and narrow, with a range of 90 - 160 yuan/ton. Hot - rolled coil basis is expected to oscillate within - 50 to 20 yuan/ton [36][38] 6. Coke and Coking Coal Market Analysis 6.1 Fundamentals - Price: Coke prices are stable, and coking coal prices rise [40] - Production and Capacity: Coke output from independent coking plants falls, and that from steel enterprises rises. Coking plant capacity utilization falls, and steel enterprise capacity utilization rises [40] - Inventory and Profit: Coke port, steel mill, and coking plant inventories change in different directions. Coking enterprises are in continuous losses. Sample mine output,开工率, and inventory rise. Coking coal imports decline, and coking plant and steel mill inventories rise [43][48] - Monthly Output: National raw coal and coke output increase [50] 6.2 Conclusions and Recommendations - Coke and Coking Coal: Prices are expected to be oscillating strongly, and long positions can be tried on dips [53][54] 7. Iron Ore Market Analysis 7.1 Fundamentals - Price: 62% Platts iron ore index and Qingdao Port PB powder price fall. High - grade and low - grade ore price spreads change [55] - Inventory and Shipping: Port iron ore inventory rises, and daily shipping volume falls. Steel mill inventory and inventory days increase [59] - Shipment and Arrival: Australian and Brazilian shipments fall, and arrivals are expected to decline [61] - Domestic Production: Domestic iron ore output declines, and mine capacity utilization rises. Market transactions improve, but environmental risks exist [68] - Port Transactions and Cost: Port iron ore transactions increase, and steel mill iron water cost rises [70] - Hot - Metal Output and Steel Production: Hot - metal output rises, and steel mill profitability improves [72] - Steel Output and Inventory: Five major steel products output rises, consumption falls, and inventory increases [74][75] - Transportation Cost: Iron ore freight rates mostly rise [77] 7.2 Conclusions and Recommendations - Iron Ore: Prices are expected to rebound after a decline, but the upside is limited due to high port inventory. The basis is expected to oscillate within 40 - 100 yuan/ton [83][84]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trends, resistance levels, and support levels of various futures contracts on January 21, 2026, and the trends of futures main continuous contracts in January 2026 [2]. - The report also provides macro - economic information and commodity - related information that may impact futures prices [5][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Outlook 3.1.1 January 21, 2026 Futures Main Contracts - Stock index futures (IF2603, IH2603, IC2603, IM2603) are expected to fluctuate weakly, with specific resistance and support levels provided [2]. - Gold futures (AU2604) are expected to fluctuate strongly, with resistance at 1080.0 and 1100.0 yuan/gram, and support at 1060.1 and 1054.3 yuan/gram, and may hit a new high [2]. - Silver futures (AG2604) are expected to have a strong and wide - range fluctuation, with resistance at 23800 and 24200 yuan/kilogram, support at 22763 and 22392 yuan/kilogram, and may hit a new high [2]. - Other metal futures such as copper (CU2603), aluminum (AL2603), nickel (NI2602), tin (SN2602), and non - metal futures like lithium carbonate (LC2605), steel products, and coal products also have their respective predicted trends, resistance, and support levels [2]. 3.1.2 January 2026 Futures Main Continuous Contracts - Stock index futures (IF, IH, IC, IM) are expected to fluctuate strongly, with the IM main continuous contract likely to hit a new high [2][4]. - Gold, silver, copper, aluminum, tin futures main continuous contracts are expected to fluctuate strongly and may hit new highs, with specific resistance and support levels provided [4]. - Lithium carbonate futures main continuous contract is expected to fluctuate strongly, and steel products (RB2605, I2605) and coking coal (JM2605) futures main contracts are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [4]. 3.2 Macro Information and Trading Tips - Chinese government officials attended international meetings and held economic and trade consultations, and introduced 2026 macro - policies, including expanding domestic demand, maintaining fiscal spending, and promoting domestic investment through financial policies [5][6]. - The 1 - month LPR remained unchanged, and there were international news such as the US president's remarks on tariffs, the EU's response to US trade threats, and global bond market sell - offs [7][8]. 3.3 Commodity Futures - Related Information - On January 20, domestic commodity futures markets closed with mixed results. Lithium carbonate hit the daily limit, precious metals were strong, base metals were divided, and coking coal futures led the decline [9]. - Shanghai introduced measures to enhance the influence of non - ferrous metals in the global market, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted margin ratios and price limits for some contracts [9]. - International precious metals, oil, and base metals futures markets had different price trends on January 20, affected by factors such as trade frictions and supply expectations [9][10]. 3.4 Futures Market Analysis and Outlook 3.4.1 Stock Index Futures - On January 20, major stock index futures contracts (IF2603, IH2603, IC2603, IM2603) opened slightly higher, then fell back after hitting resistance, with varying degrees of decline and changes in short - term trends [12][13]. - The A - share market adjusted on January 20, with a style shift from high - valuation growth sectors to value sectors. Hong Kong stocks and US and European stock markets also closed down [14][15]. 3.4.2 Gold Futures - On January 20, the gold futures main contract (AU2604) opened slightly lower, then rose after an initial decline, hitting a new high since its listing in 2008. The main continuous contract also showed a strong upward trend [34]. - It is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly in January 2026 and on January 21, 2026, and may hit new highs [34][35]. 3.4.3 Silver Futures - On January 20, the silver futures main contract (AG2604) opened slightly lower, then fell back after a rebound, with short - term upward momentum weakening. The main continuous contract showed a strong upward trend and hit a new high [38]. - It is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly in January 2026 and on January 21, 2026, and may hit new highs [39]. 3.4.4 Other Futures - Copper, aluminum, nickel, tin, lithium carbonate, steel products (including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore), and coking coal futures all have their respective price trends on January 20 and predicted trends for January 2026 and January 21, 2026 [45][48][54][58][62][66][70][74][79].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analyses, the report predicts the trends of various futures contracts on December 16, 2025, and gives resistance and support levels for each contract. Some futures like platinum, palladium, and polysilicon are expected to reach new highs [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: On December 16, 2025, stock index futures are likely to oscillate weakly. For example, IF2512 has a resistance at 4575 and 4600 points and a support at 4511 and 4500 points. In December 2025, IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts are expected to oscillate strongly in a wide range [2][19]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On December 16, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract T2603 is likely to oscillate weakly and test the support at 107.75 and 107.61 yuan. The 30 - year Treasury bond futures main contract TL2603 is likely to oscillate weakly and test the support at 111.1 and 110.4 yuan [2][39][42]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: - **Gold**: On December 16, 2025, the gold futures main contract AU2602 is likely to oscillate weakly and test the support at 970.6 and 963.3 yuan/gram. In December 2025, it is expected to oscillate strongly in a wide range [45]. - **Silver**: On December 16, 2025, the silver futures main contract AG2602 is likely to oscillate strongly and attack the resistance at 15200 and 15600 yuan/kilogram. In December 2025, it is expected to reach a new high [53][54]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: On December 16, 2025, platinum and palladium futures main contracts PT2606 and PD2606 are likely to oscillate strongly and reach new highs [3][59][60]. - **Base Metal Futures**: - **Copper**: On December 16, 2025, the copper futures main contract CU2602 is likely to oscillate in a wide range. In December 2025, it is expected to reach a new high [63]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: On December 16, 2025, the aluminum futures main contract AL2602 is likely to oscillate weakly, while the alumina futures main contract AO2601 is also likely to oscillate weakly. In December 2025, the aluminum continuous contract is expected to oscillate strongly, and the alumina continuous contract is expected to reach a new low [70][71][75]. - **Nickel and Tin**: On December 16, 2025, nickel and tin futures main contracts NI2601 and SN2601 are likely to oscillate weakly. In December 2025, the nickel continuous contract is expected to oscillate weakly in a wide range, and the tin continuous contract is expected to oscillate strongly [79][82]. - **Energy and Chemical Futures**: - **Polysilicon and Lithium Carbonate**: On December 16, 2025, polysilicon and lithium carbonate futures main contracts PS2605 and LC2605 are likely to oscillate strongly in a wide range. The polysilicon contract is expected to reach a new high [88][89][90]. - **Steel - related Futures**: On December 16, 2025, rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coking coal, glass, and soda ash futures main contracts RB2605, HC2605, I2605, JM2605, FG605, and SA605 are expected to have different trends. For instance, rebar and hot - rolled coil are likely to oscillate in a wide range, iron ore is likely to oscillate strongly, and the rest are likely to have weak or wide - range oscillations [4][6][95][98]. - **Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, PTA, Methanol**: On December 16, 2025, crude oil, fuel oil, PTA, and methanol futures main contracts SC2602, FU2603, TA605, and MA605 are likely to oscillate weakly [6][120][124][126]. - **Agricultural Futures**: - **Soybean Meal and Palm Oil**: On December 16, 2025, soybean meal and palm oil futures main contracts M2605 and P2605 are likely to oscillate weakly [7][131][133]. Macro - information and Trading Tips - **Domestic News**: - The article "Expanding Domestic Demand is a Strategic Move" by General Secretary Xi Jinping is published in Qiushi Journal, emphasizing the importance of domestic demand [8]. - China's economic data for November shows that industrial added - value, service production index, and retail sales have different growth rates, while fixed - asset investment and real - estate development investment decline [8]. - The housing price data of 70 cities in November shows that the second - hand housing prices decline, and the new - housing prices have different trends in different - tier cities [9]. - Six departments issue a plan to promote the high - quality development of service outsourcing [9]. - The National Energy Work Conference deploys key tasks for 2026, including increasing wind and solar power generation capacity [9]. - The State Council Food Safety Office deploys food safety work during festivals and important meetings [9]. - **International News**: - European leaders plan to form a "multinational force" to support Ukraine [10]. - There is resistance to the potential appointment of Kevin Hassett as the new Fed Chairman [10]. - Fed officials express their views on the economy, inflation, and unemployment rate [10]. - International commodity futures have different price trends, such as platinum and palladium rising, and crude oil falling [11]. - The exchange rates of major currencies fluctuate, including the US dollar index falling [13].