1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Narrow - range oscillation [1] - Iron ore: High - level oscillation [1] - Coking coal: Oscillation with a weakening trend [1] - Coke: Oscillation with a weakening trend [1] - Manganese silicon: Oscillation [1] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillation [2][4] 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel market is affected by factors such as the decline in coal - coke prices and the recovery of manufacturing PMI. The fundamentals of rebar have no prominent contradictions and weak driving forces, so it is expected to oscillate in the short term. The iron ore market is influenced by supply - demand changes and geopolitical factors, with a high - level oscillation trend. The coking coal and coke markets are affected by factors like production, demand, and macro - disturbances, showing an oscillating and weakening trend. The manganese silicon and ferrosilicon markets are affected by cost, production, and external factors, and are expected to oscillate in the short term [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures price fell, the spot price decreased slightly, and the trading volume declined. The manufacturing PMI in March rose, but the coal - coke price drop affected the black commodity sentiment. The rebar fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and it is expected to oscillate narrowly in the short term. The iron ore futures price dropped, the supply was affected by the hurricane in Australia and the increase in Brazil's shipments, the demand (hot metal output) increased, and the inventory decreased. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [1] - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures price dropped, the spot price decreased, the supply was basically normal with improved shipments, and the demand was supported by the increase in hot metal output. However, the delay in coke price increase and limited profit space made the procurement more cautious. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [1] - **Coke**: The coke futures price dropped, the spot price was stable, the supply was relatively stable, and the demand was rigid but the procurement willingness was average. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon futures price weakened, the spot price in some areas decreased, and many production enterprises planned to reduce production due to cost issues. The supply is expected to decrease, and the cost provides support, but the inventory is still high. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures price weakened, the spot price in some areas decreased, the production in March increased compared to the previous month but decreased compared to the same period last year, the demand had a purchase price from a steel mill, the cost increased, and the inventory decreased. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the Middle East situation and cost changes need to be continuously monitored [2] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads**: Different contracts of various varieties have different spread values and changes, such as the 5 - 10 and 10 - 1 spreads of rebar, hot - rolled coil, etc. [3] - **Basis**: The basis values and their changes of different contracts of various varieties are presented, for example, the basis of the 05 and 10 contracts of rebar [3] - **Spot Prices**: The latest spot prices and their changes in different regions of various varieties are shown, like the spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou [3] - **Profits and Spreads**: Information on the profits (such as rebar's disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit) and spreads (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc.) of different varieties is provided [3] 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: Charts show the closing prices of main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2021 to 2026 [6][7][9][13] - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts display the basis of main contracts of various varieties over different contract periods [16][17][20][22] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts present the spreads of different inter - period contracts of various varieties, such as the 05 - 10 and 10 - 01 spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil [25][26][30][31][32][34][36] - **Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: Charts show the spreads between different varieties, like the coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc. [37][39][41] - **Rebar Profits**: Charts illustrate the disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit of rebar from 2021 to 2026 [42][46] 3.4 Black Research Team Members - Qiu Yuecheng: Current Assistant Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and Director of Black Research, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [48] - Zhang Xiaojin: Current Director of Resource Product Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience in the futures field [48] - Liu Xi: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [48] - Zhang Chunjie: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures operations [49]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Iron ore: Slow resumption of hot metal production, and ore prices are under pressure [2][4] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Weak market sentiment, with repeated fluctuations [2][8] - Ferrosilicon: Fluctuations in market trading sentiment, with the futures market showing weak oscillations [2][13] - Silicomanganese: Tightening demand expectations at the ore end, with the futures market showing weak oscillations [2][13] - Coke and coking coal: Oscillating weakly [2][16][17] - Logs: Improving demand, with prices oscillating at a high level [2][20] 3. Summary by Category Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the I2605 futures contract was 808.0 yuan/ton, down 5.0 yuan or 0.62%. The trading volume was 353,624 lots, a decrease of 17,797 lots. Among spot prices, PB (61.5%) was 777.0 yuan/ton, down 9.0 yuan [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Previous structural contradictions drove iron ore prices to a relatively high level. Recently, there are expectations of easing in negotiations, and the driving force is expected to weaken, leading to a decline in ore prices. The 2026 government work report focuses on stabilizing expectations, with the GDP growth rate adjusted from "around 5%" to "4.5%-5.0%", and an increase in the scale of policy-based financial instruments. The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel enterprises was 231.09 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.94 tons [4][5]. - **Trend Intensity**: -1, indicating a bearish outlook [6]. Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the RB2605 futures contract was 3,294 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan or 0.33%. The trading volume was 477,403 lots, and the open interest was 901,052 lots, a decrease of 75,389 lots. Among spot prices, the Shanghai rebar price was 3,220 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In February 2026, China exported 783.8 tons of steel, a month-on-month increase of 1.1%, with an average export price of 729.0 US dollars/ton, a month-on-month increase of 6.7%. From January to February, the cumulative steel exports were 1,559.2 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.1%. In March, the output of rebar decreased by 5.46 tons, and the output of hot-rolled coil increased by 5.4 tons [9][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral outlook [10]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the ferrosilicon 2605 futures contract was 5,874 yuan/ton, down 192 yuan. The trading volume was 166,212 lots, and the open interest was 158,901 lots. The spot price of ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia was 5,630 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In March, the silicon - manganese production in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia increased. However, starting from April 1, many enterprises announced production cuts. A steel mill in Jiangsu set the silicon - manganese price at 6,580 yuan/ton in late March [13][15]. - **Trend Intensity**: -1 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, indicating a bearish outlook [15]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the JM2605 coking coal futures contract was 1,148.5 yuan/ton, down 65.5 yuan or 5.4%. The trading volume was 863,734 lots, and the open interest was 396,170 lots, a decrease of 3,810 lots. The spot price of Linfen low - sulfur primary coking coal was 1,580 yuan/ton, unchanged [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On March 31, the CCI metallurgical coal index showed certain trends. The online auction of coking coal had a high rejection rate, and the market sentiment was weak [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: -1 for both coke and coking coal, indicating a bearish outlook [19]. Logs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2605 contract was 820.5 yuan, with a daily decline of 0.7%. The trading volume was 4,637 lots, a decrease of 15.2%. The open interest was 11,027 lots, a decrease of 3.2%. The spot price of 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in the Shandong market was 790 yuan/m³, unchanged [20]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The 2026 government work report focuses on stabilizing expectations, with the GDP growth rate adjusted from "around 5%" to "4.5%-5.0%", and an increase in the scale of policy - based financial instruments [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral outlook [23].

Report Summary - **Report Date**: March 30, 2026 - **Research Institute**: Shenyin Wanguo Futures Research Institute 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The weekend market was dominated by geopolitical conflicts and policy games. Energy and precious metals fluctuated violently. The escalation of the Middle East situation pushed up the risk premium of crude oil, and the price of domestic refined gold jewelry approached 1,400 yuan/gram. Macro - policies showed differentiation: overseas, the Fed's dot - plot implied only one interest - rate cut in 2026, which suppressed risk assets; domestically, the central bank maintained reasonable and sufficient liquidity, and the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size from January to February increased by 15.2% year - on - year, showing the resilience of the industrial fundamentals [1]. - In 2026 Q1, the global capital market was characterized by global differentiation, technology re - evaluation, and policy disturbances. In Q2, as the earnings reports are released, the market logic will shift from "speculating on expectations" to "looking at performance realization" [4][11]. 3. Summary of Each Section Key Varieties - **Crude Oil**: The sc night - session rose 2.67%. The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran shows no sign of stopping. Iran responded to the US cease - fire proposal and put forward strict conditions. The US Department of Defense is formulating military options against Iran [2][14]. - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals are in shock consolidation. The current adjustment is driven by the downward revision of interest - rate cut expectations and liquidity shocks. In the long - term, the price center will continue to rise due to geopolitical risks, concerns about US fiscal sustainability, and the de - dollarization process [3][20]. - **Stock Index**: The US three major indexes fell. The previous trading day, the stock index opened low and closed high. In Q2, the market logic will change, and high - valuation growth stocks face pressure, while low - valuation, high - dividend, and cash - flow - stable assets have stronger defensive properties [4][11]. Daily News Focus - **International News**: US President Trump claimed to control the Strait of Hormuz, and Vice - President Vance said the US would withdraw from Iran after completing its goals and that the rise in oil prices was a short - term reaction [6]. - **Domestic News**: On the occasion of the 25th anniversary of the Boao Forum for Asia, Hainan Free Trade Port made its first global appearance after the whole - island customs closure [7]. - **Industry News**: From January to February, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 15.2% year - on - year, with significant growth in the non - ferrous, chemical, and semiconductor industries [8][9]. Overseas Market Daily Returns - The S&P 500 fell 1.67%, the European STOXX 50 fell 0.79%, the FTSE China A50 futures rose 0.70%, the US dollar index rose 0.26%, ICE Brent crude oil rose 8.14%, and precious metals such as London gold and silver also rose [10]. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial**: The stock index has the same situation as mentioned before. Treasury bonds have mixed performance. The central bank's operations keep the capital market relatively stable, but long - term treasury bond futures prices may face pressure due to factors such as the Middle East situation and inflation expectations [11][12][13]. - **Energy and Chemical**: Methanol night - session rose 4.29%, with an increase in the operating rate of coal - to - olefin plants and a decrease in coastal inventories. Rubber is in the low - production season, with new supply pressure expected, but the price is supported by the strong synthetic rubber. Polyolefins rebounded, and attention should be paid to the conflict situation and device operation. Glass and soda ash futures are weak, with high inventories and supply - demand imbalances [15][16][17][19]. - **Metals**: Copper and zinc prices may fluctuate in the short - term, affected by factors such as supply, downstream demand, and the US dollar. Aluminum prices may rise due to supply risks caused by the Middle East conflict [21][22][23]. - **Black Metals**: The double - coking market was weak on Friday night, but the decline is expected to be limited due to the recovery of rigid demand and the impact of the geopolitical conflict on the coal market [25]. - **Agricultural Products**: Protein meal is affected by the Brazilian soybean harvest and the expected increase in US soybean exports. Oils are expected to be in high - level shock due to bio - fuel policies and oil price risks. The pig price is expected to remain low due to oversupply and weak demand. Sugar is affected by the Middle East situation and ethanol prices. Cotton is expected to be in shock in the short - term and supply may be tight in the long - term [26][27][28][29][30]. - **Shipping Index**: The container shipping European route fell on Friday. The price is affected by supply - demand and geopolitical factors, and is expected to be in a shock pattern in the short - term [32].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current steel fundamentals are still in a "weak balance" state, with marginal improvement in demand and gradual inventory reduction, but no strong trend - driving force has been formed. For iron ore, the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the future market is affected by the overall sentiment of the black sector and cost - related issues. For coking coal and coke, the short - term price rebound lacks sufficient fundamental support, and the long - term outlook for coking coal is optimistic. For industrial silicon, the price is expected to fluctuate, and for polysilicon, the price is expected to continue to search for the bottom. For glass and soda ash, both are expected to show a narrow - range shock pattern [2][5][10][14][17][20][23][25] Summary by Directory Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3,124 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (-0.12%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 83,113 tons, a net increase of 1,525 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.0762 million lots, a net decrease of 91,050 lots. The spot market prices in Tianjin and Shanghai remained unchanged. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3,299 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (-0.18%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 539,561 tons, a net increase of 5,882 tons. The position of the main contract was 919,500 lots, a net decrease of 42,727 lots. The spot price in Lecong decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while that in Shanghai remained unchanged [1] Strategy Viewpoints - The new construction starts still showed a large decline in the context of the low base in the same period last year, indicating that the recovery momentum of the real - estate investment side is still insufficient. The short - term support from real estate for steel demand is limited, and the terminal demand is likely to remain weak. The demand for hot - rolled coils has recovered rapidly, production has increased slightly, and inventory has entered the destocking stage. Rebar shows both supply and demand growth, with a slight reduction in inventory, presenting a neutral overall performance [2] Iron Ore Market Information - The main iron ore contract (I2605) closed at 812.00 yuan/ton, with a change of -0.61% (-5.00), and the position changed by -20,782 lots to 387,200 lots. The weighted position was 900,800 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 786 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 22.85 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 2.74% [4] Strategy Viewpoints - On the supply side, the overseas ore shipments continued to rise. Australian shipments increased to a relatively high level, while Brazilian shipments declined slightly, and shipments from non - mainstream countries remained stable. The near - end arrivals increased month - on - month. On the demand side, the average daily hot - metal output increased by 29,400 tons to 231,090 tons. The blast furnaces that were shut down for maintenance due to production restrictions have basically resumed normal production, and the hot - metal output is expected to continue to rise. The steel mills' profitability continued to improve slightly. In terms of inventory, the port inventory continued to decline from a high level, and the steel mills' imported ore inventory decreased from a low level. Overall, the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [5] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On March 27, the main manganese silicon contract (SM605) closed up 2.27% at 6,580 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 6,350 yuan/ton, with a discount of 40 yuan/ton to the futures. The main ferrosilicon contract (SF605) closed up 0.50% at 6,012 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 6,050 yuan/ton, with a premium of 38 yuan/ton to the futures. Last week, the manganese silicon price fluctuated at a high level, reaching a new high of over 6,700 yuan/ton during the week, and then declined, with a weekly increase of 184 yuan/ton or +2.87%. The ferrosilicon price rose at the beginning of the week and then fluctuated downward, with a weekly increase of 96 yuan/ton or +1.61% [7][8] Strategy Viewpoints - The geopolitical situation continues to affect the market. The black sector may be supported by the withdrawal of funds that previously long - held non - ferrous metals and short - held black metals. The "energy substitution" property of coal may support the price of alloys. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is still not ideal, but most factors have been priced in. The fundamentals of ferrosilicon are good. The future market for both is affected by the overall sentiment of the black sector and cost - related issues [9][10] Coking Coal and Coke Market Information - On March 27, the main coking coal contract (JM2605) closed down 0.89% at 1,219.0 yuan/ton. The spot prices of different types of coking coal in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia had different premiums to the futures. The main coke contract (J2605) closed down 0.51% at 1,752.0 yuan/ton. The spot prices of coke in Rizhao Port and Lvliang also had different premiums or discounts to the futures. Last week, the coking coal price rose sharply at the beginning of the week and then fluctuated at a high level, with a weekly increase of 64 yuan/ton or +5.29%. The coke price followed the coking coal price up at the beginning of the week and then declined, with a weekly increase of 24.5 yuan/ton or +1.39% [12][13] Strategy Viewpoints - The geopolitical situation continues to affect the market. The black sector may be supported by the withdrawal of funds. The "energy substitution" property of coal may support the coal price. In terms of the varieties themselves, the short - term supply - demand structure of coking coal and coke is still relatively loose. There is not enough fundamental support for a sharp price rebound in the short term. It is recommended to take short - term long - side operations or wait and see in the short term, and be optimistic about the coking coal price in the medium - to - long term [14] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - For industrial silicon, the main contract (SI2605) closed at 8,625 yuan/ton on Friday, with a change of -1.26% (-110). The weighted contract position changed by -1,903 lots to 368,620 lots. The spot prices of different grades of industrial silicon in East China remained unchanged. For polysilicon, the main contract (PS2605) closed at 35,680 yuan/ton on Friday, with a change of +0.39% (+140). The weighted contract position changed by +1,047 lots to 52,531 lots. The spot prices of different types of polysilicon remained unchanged [16][18] Strategy Viewpoints - Industrial silicon prices are expected to fluctuate. The supply is stable, and the demand is weak, with insufficient improvement in demand to drive prices. Polysilicon continues to be in a negative - feedback adjustment state, with high inventory and weak downstream demand. The price is expected to continue to search for the bottom [17][20] Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - For glass, the main contract closed at 1,036 yuan/ton on Friday, down 1.99% (-21). The spot prices in North China and Central China remained unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises decreased by 814,000 boxes (-1.09%). The top 20 long - position holders reduced their positions by 32,418 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their positions by 45,523 lots. For soda ash, the main contract closed at 1,225 yuan/ton on Friday, down 1.53% (-19). The spot price in Shahe remained unchanged. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 190,000 tons (-1.09%), with an increase in heavy - soda ash inventory and a decrease in light - soda ash inventory. The top 20 long - position holders reduced their positions by 12,455 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their positions by 26,503 lots [22][24] Strategy Viewpoints - The glass market performed poorly last week. The spot trading was light, and the terminal demand recovery was less than expected. The market is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range, with the main contract reference range of 1,015 - 1,050 yuan/ton. The soda ash market is in a game between short - term supply tightening and weak demand, with prices showing a narrow - range adjustment. The main contract reference range is 1,200 - 1,250 yuan/ton [23][25]

Core Viewpoint - The macro market is influenced by geopolitical tensions and policy dynamics, with energy and precious metals experiencing significant volatility due to the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East and differing monetary policies between the U.S. and China [1]. Group 1: Energy Market - The WTI crude oil price surged past $100 due to increased risk premiums from Middle Eastern tensions, particularly the conflict involving Iran and Saudi Arabia [1]. - The domestic energy and chemical sectors showed strength as a result of rising oil prices, while the gold price approached 1400 yuan per gram due to safe-haven demand and hawkish expectations from the Federal Reserve [1]. - Indonesia's approval of export tariffs on coal and nickel, along with Russia's planned ban on gasoline exports starting in April, has added uncertainty to the prices of related commodities [1]. Group 2: Precious Metals - Precious metals are experiencing volatility, primarily driven by a dual pressure from revised interest rate expectations and liquidity shocks, with a decrease in rate cut expectations leading to an increase in the U.S. dollar index and real interest rates [3]. - Long-term trends indicate that geopolitical risks are likely to elevate the price center for precious metals, with ongoing concerns about U.S. fiscal sustainability and a continued push for de-dollarization, leading to increased gold reserves by global central banks [3]. Group 3: Stock Indices - U.S. stock indices fell, with the market showing a shift from "trading on expectations" to "looking for actual results" as the earnings season approaches [4]. - The first quarter of 2026 is characterized by global market differentiation, technology reassessment, and policy disruptions, with the Federal Reserve signaling a prolonged hawkish stance [4]. - High-valuation growth stocks, particularly in technology, face ongoing pressure from rising risk-free rates, while low-valuation, high-dividend assets are expected to exhibit stronger defensive characteristics amid external uncertainties [4]. Group 4: Industrial Profit Data - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 15.2% year-on-year in January and February, reflecting a recovery in industrial performance [9]. - Notable profit growth was observed in the non-ferrous metals and chemical industries, with specific sectors like aluminum processing and inorganic salt manufacturing seeing profit increases of 264.0% and 518.5%, respectively [9].

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates a significant increase in industrial enterprises' profits and revenues in January-February 2026, with state-owned enterprises showing the most notable recovery in profit growth and private enterprises experiencing the fastest profit growth [1] Group 1: Profit and Revenue Growth - Industrial enterprises' profits and revenues have shown a marked increase in early 2026, supported by improvements in "volume-price-profit margin" [1] - The recovery in profits is significantly influenced by the unexpected improvement in the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the rebound in profit margins [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - Both upstream and midstream sectors have experienced substantial marginal recovery in profit growth, with upstream sector profits turning positive [1] - The positive shift in upstream profits is primarily attributed to a narrowing decline in profits within the oil and black metal industries, alongside high profit growth in the non-ferrous sector [1] - High-tech manufacturing profits have seen rapid growth, enhancing its leading role in the overall industrial profit recovery [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The overall trend for industrial enterprise profits indicates a clear recovery; however, future developments will need to consider geopolitical trends, the pace of price recovery, and the progress of domestic demand recovery [1]

Core Insights - In January and February 2026, industrial enterprises in China experienced significant increases in both profits and revenues, with state-owned enterprises showing the most notable recovery in profit growth, while private enterprises recorded the fastest profit growth [1] - Improvements in "volume-price-profit margin" dynamics collectively supported the rebound in industrial enterprise profits, with unexpected improvements in the Producer Price Index (PPI) and recovery in profit margins being key factors [1] - Profit growth rates in both upstream and midstream industries showed substantial recovery, with upstream industries turning positive in profit growth, primarily due to a narrowing decline in profits in the oil and black metal sectors, alongside high profit growth in the non-ferrous metals sector [1] - High-tech manufacturing profits grew rapidly, enhancing its leading role in the overall industrial profit landscape [1] - Looking ahead, the overall profit recovery of industrial enterprises is evident, but future developments will need to consider geopolitical trends, the pace of price recovery, and the progress of domestic demand recovery [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall, the tone of the Two Sessions is positive, laying a foundation for the good development of the domestic economy. The changing situation in the Middle East has led to a sharp rise in crude oil and chemical products, which may affect the cost and sentiment of other commodities, as well as economic factors such as interest rates. Due to cost increases and the relatively low valuation of the black industry, it may have an impact on the bottom - up of black prices, but the overall fundamentals of the black industry are average, and the actual impact is not significant [141] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01 Weekly Report Thinking Explanation - **Valuation**: It addresses the static issue of whether a commodity is expensive or not. By comparing with history, production costs, spot prices, and import/regional price differences, an objective judgment can be made. When the situation is clear, there are usually good investment opportunities and strategies [8] - **Driver**: It is about how future valuations will change. The biggest driver comes from changes in the industrial pattern and capacity. Inventory changes are worthy of attention as they reflect recent changes in demand, production, and imports/exports [8] - **Other**: The formation of the final view and the expression of strategies are the result of multiple factors. Valuation and driver provide a basis for analysis, but additional thinking may be needed to achieve better results. The weekly report explores investment opportunities in the black industry from these three aspects and uses key data for verification [9] 02 Main Logic Summary of Each Variety Threaded Rods and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Bullish Logic**: The Two Sessions set a positive tone. Steel mill profits are average, and there may be pressure to reduce supply due to the 2026 capacity replacement policy. The upcoming demand season and better - than - expected exports, along with rising energy prices and a strong overall commodity atmosphere [13] - **Bearish Logic**: The era of real estate and infrastructure is over, and the export license system is implemented. Profits have improved, raw materials are in oversupply, inventory is large, and cost increases are limited [14] - **Viewpoint**: The price will continue to fluctuate within a range in the later period [15] - **Strategy**: Buy low and sell high [16] Ore - **Bullish Logic**: The ore basis still has an advantage, steel mill profits have improved. The comprehensive cost of newly -投产 ore is high, the rhythm is highly uncertain, and many are in non - traditional regions. Indian steel production is rising, Iranian ore exports are blocked, the progress of Simandou may be weaker than expected, and the price of crude oil has risen, increasing freight costs [57] - **Bearish Logic**: Ore production capacity is expected to increase, Simandou will enter the market. The cash cost of new production capacity is low, future steel demand is unlikely to improve significantly, and ore inventory is high [57] - **Viewpoint**: The supply - demand situation of ore has marginally improved due to factors such as Iran, but the overall pattern remains unchanged [58] - **Strategy**: Wait for the price of far - month ore to rise before making a decision [59] Coking Coal and Coke - **Bullish Logic**: Domestic coal supply may be affected by future environmental protection factors. Rising crude oil prices have a price - comparison pulling effect on coal, and the demand for coal in the coal - chemical industry is expected to increase. The current valuation is not high, and sea - coal imports have stopped due to price issues [79] - **Bearish Logic**: Domestic coal is in the process of resuming production, and the probability of further tightening in the later period is low. Coal imports from Mongolia and Russia will remain high in 2026, and the previous high prices have attracted hedging positions [79] - **Viewpoint**: It is highly likely that coking coal and coke will fluctuate within a range [80] - **Strategy**: The coking coal spot - futures arbitrage has shrunk significantly. Choose the right time to shift positions to far - month contracts and operate in a rolling manner [81] Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron - **Bullish Logic**: The price is not high, and production profits are low. The variety is small, and volatility can be easily amplified. Manganese ore prices have risen significantly due to factors such as Australian weather and diesel. Silicon manganese production has decreased. There are rumors that South Africa will impose an export tax on manganese ore. Iron - water production is expected to rise, there is an expectation of an increase in differential electricity prices, and rising crude oil prices boost sentiment and raise cost expectations [104] - **Bearish Logic**: It is expected that demand will not grow significantly in 2026, production capacity is loose and new capacity is added. Silicon manganese inventory is high, and ferromanganese inventory is also not low. If the futures price continues to rise, the spot - futures price difference will be favorable [105] - **Viewpoint**: The rise in manganese ore prices has led to some performance of silicon manganese. Pay attention to the spot - futures price difference [106] 03 Strategy Tracking and Summary - **Summary**: The overall situation is affected by the positive tone of the Two Sessions and the rise in crude oil and chemical products. The black industry's fundamentals are average, and the real impact on prices is not significant [141] - **Strategy**: The spot - futures arbitrage of coking coal, glass, and soda ash has performed well. Choose the right time to shift positions to far - month contracts and operate in a rolling manner. Wait for the improvement of ore. Glass and soda ash remain in a bearish pattern, and short positions can be taken on rallies and operated in a rolling manner [142]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the text. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, there are doubts about the so - called US - Iran peace talks. The US is reported to be formulating a "fatal blow" military plan against Iran, and Iran believes the US negotiation stance is a "third deception" plan. Oil prices have risen again, the Fed's interest - rate hike expectations have resurfaced, the US dollar index and US Treasury yields have strengthened significantly, and global risk appetite has cooled significantly. Domestically, the Chinese economy rebounded better than expected from January to February, exports far exceeded expectations, and inflation continued to recover. The goals and policy intensity in the government work report for 2026 are lower than those in 2025. The short - term trading logic of the market focuses on Middle - East geopolitical risks. In the short term, the domestic economy is better than expected, but due to the mixed geopolitical news in the Middle East, the stock index fluctuates weakly and with increased volatility. [3][4] - For assets, the stock index fluctuates weakly and with increased volatility in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously; government bonds fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously; in the commodity sector, black metals fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously; non - ferrous metals fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously; energy and chemical products fluctuate significantly in the short term, and it is advisable to go long cautiously; precious metals fluctuate significantly and weaken in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - Overseas, doubts about the US - Iran peace talks, rising oil prices, resurgent Fed interest - rate hike expectations, strengthening of the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, and cooling of global risk appetite. Domestically, the economy and inflation are better than expected in January - February, and the goals and policy intensity in 2026 are lower than in 2025. The short - term stock index fluctuates weakly and with increased volatility. [3] - Asset suggestions: short - term cautious wait - and - see for stock indices, government bonds, black metals, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals; short - term cautious long - position for energy and chemical products. [3] 3.2 Stock Index - Affected by sectors such as insurance, communication services, and photovoltaics, the domestic stock market continued to decline significantly. The economy and inflation are better than expected from January to February, and the goals and policy intensity in 2026 are lower than in 2025. The short - term trading logic focuses on Middle - East geopolitical risks, and the stock index fluctuates weakly and with increased volatility. It is advisable to wait and see cautiously in the short term. [4] 3.3 Precious Metals - The precious metals market fell on Thursday night. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed at 980.08 yuan/gram, down 2.83%; the main contract of Shanghai silver closed at 16841 yuan/kilogram, down 5.66%. Spot gold restarted its decline, and finally closed down 2.85% at 4377.95 US dollars/ounce; spot silver finally closed down 4.32% at 68.11 US dollars/ounce. Precious metals fluctuate significantly and weaken in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously. [5] 3.4 Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel futures and spot markets declined slightly on Thursday, and the trading volume was low. The real demand improved marginally, the apparent consumption of five major steel products increased by 19.49 tons week - on - week, and the inventory decline continued to expand. The supply decreased slightly this week, but the molten iron output increased. The steel market will follow the cost in the short term, and attention should be paid to the price adjustment risk after the cost decline. [6][7] - **Iron Ore**: The spot price of iron ore rebounded significantly on Thursday, and the futures performance was relatively strong. There are rumors of setbacks in iron ore negotiations. The demand for iron ore is still resilient, and the supply has increased. It is expected that the room for further price increase is limited, and attention should be paid to the phased adjustment risk after the energy price weakens. [7] - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese rebounded on Thursday, and the futures continued to fluctuate. The alloy prices were supported by the rebound of crude oil prices. The operating rate of silicon manganese increased slightly, and the daily output decreased slightly. The steel procurement in March has basically ended, and the market is waiting for the situation in April. It is advisable to treat the futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese with a slightly bullish and fluctuating mindset. [8] 3.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The copper spot TC is close to - 70 US dollars/ton, a new low. The by - product income makes up for the smelting profit. The refined copper production growth rate is high. The core contradiction lies in the mine end. The inventories at home and abroad are accumulating, and the social inventory has decreased significantly. The sustainability of inventory reduction needs to be observed. [9] - **Aluminum**: On Thursday, due to Iran's opposition to the US proposal, the risk appetite decreased, but the aluminum price was supported. The domestic primary aluminum production increased significantly from January to February, and the pattern of weak domestic and strong overseas may change temporarily. The domestic primary aluminum import remains high, and the supply pressure still exists. [9] - **Zinc**: The domestic zinc ingot inventory continued to decline to 21.44 tons on Thursday, but it is still at a high level in recent years. The zinc ore processing fees in some regions have rebounded, and the domestic smelting output remains relatively high. The demand is not optimistic. [9][10] - **Lead**: The imports of refined lead and crude lead increased significantly from January to February. The production of primary lead and secondary lead increased seasonally. The demand is entering the off - season, and the social inventory of primary lead has decreased. The LME lead inventory is at a high level in the same period in recent years. [11] - **Nickel**: Indonesia may levy a windfall tax on nickel from April 1. The core contradiction lies in the mine end. The RKAB quota in 2026 has decreased significantly, and the MHP supply may decline. The nickel price has support below, but the upside is limited due to high inventories at home and abroad. [12] - **Tin**: The imports of tin ore from Myanmar increased significantly in the first two months, and the import sources are more diversified. The demand is not good overall, but the social inventory has decreased due to downstream replenishment. [13] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract of lithium carbonate fell 0.64% on Thursday. The supply and demand are both strong, and the social inventory is continuously decreasing. It is expected to fluctuate in the support range, and it is advisable to lay out positions at low prices. [14] - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract of industrial silicon rose 0.58% on Thursday. The supply and demand are both weak, the production capacity is surplus, and the inventory is at a high level. It is priced close to the cost, and it is advisable to operate within the range. [15] - **Polysilicon**: The main contract of polysilicon fell 2.78% on Thursday. The inventory is continuously accumulating at a high level, and the spot price is falling. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is advisable for short - sellers to hold positions cautiously or take profits in a timely manner. [15] 3.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The US sent mixed signals, and the market is not sure if the US - Iran negotiation will end the Middle - East conflict quickly. Trump postponed the strike on Iran's energy facilities by 10 days. The short - term oil price will face a pattern of a slightly rising center and increased volatility. [16] - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price follows the rising oil price, but the downstream is in the off - season, and the demand is affected by high prices. The supply is low, and the short - term absolute price will fluctuate significantly with the oil price. [16] - **PX**: The PX price follows the rising oil price, but the downstream start - up recovery is slow, and it is affected by negative feedback. It is likely to fluctuate in the short term. [17] - **PTA**: The PTA price follows the rising oil price, but the downstream negative feedback is obvious, and the rebound space is limited. It will remain slightly bullish and fluctuating before the oil price rises significantly. [17] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol price rebounds slightly with the rising oil price. The port inventory reduction is limited, and the export expectation is increasing. The basis has strengthened slightly and is likely to fluctuate after a decline. [18] - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber price remains slightly bullish and fluctuating with the rising oil price. The downstream production reduction suppresses the recovery space, but it can be supported by the cost in the later stage. [18] - **Methanol**: The inland methanol market is strong, and the port basis has strengthened. The inventory at the port and production enterprises has decreased. The supply has tightened, and the fundamentals have been repaired. The price is still firm, but attention should be paid to the marginal changes caused by geopolitical relaxation and downstream negative feedback. [19] - **PP**: The price of PP is supported by the continuous inventory reduction. The market is expected to remain strong, and the navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz is the main uncertainty. [20] - **LLDPE**: The LLDPE price is firm. The supply is decreasing, the demand is increasing, and the inventory is being reduced rapidly. It is expected to continue to operate strongly, and geopolitical dynamics are the key variables affecting the external supply. [21] - **Urea**: The domestic urea market is stable. The supply has decreased slightly, the demand shows a pattern of "weak agricultural and strong industrial", and the export policy window is closed. The price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. [22][23] 3.7 Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The 05 - month soybean contract on the CBOT market closed down 0.06% overnight. The US soybean export sales increased significantly in the week ending March 19. Attention should be paid to the revised biofuel blending target and the end - of - month planting area report on Friday. [24] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The inventory of imported soybeans and soybean meal is decreasing rapidly, supporting the soybean meal basis. The risk of delayed shipment and arrival of Brazilian soybeans still exists. The rapeseed meal inventory has increased, and it fluctuates with the soybean meal. [24] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic soybean oil inventory is decreasing rapidly, and the supply is tight in the short term, supporting the basis. The supply pressure of rapeseed oil may increase, and it is under pressure along with soybean and palm oil. [25] - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil futures rose 0.35% overnight, supported by the strong Chicago soybean oil price, rising crude oil price, and strong export data. The domestic palm oil import is affected by the inverted profit, and the market transaction is light. [25] - **Corn**: The national corn price adjusts within a narrow range. The futures price fluctuates strongly, supporting the spot market. The sales of grassroots grain sources in the producing areas have slowed down, and the inventory at ports and deep - processing enterprises is low. However, the acceptance of high - priced corn by downstream feed enterprises is decreasing, and the possible rice auction in early April may have a negative impact. [26] - **Hogs**: The pig production capacity is in the pain period of adjustment, the demand is slightly improving but still in the off - season, and the breeding loss is increasing. The short - term futures and spot prices may continue to fall, and there are risks in the futures market. [27][28]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - For steel, the market sentiment has cooled, and there is an opportunity to go long on the basis of hot-rolled coils. The supply and demand pattern is still good, but the cost support logic has loosened, and a sideways trading strategy is recommended. Consider basis trading or cash-and-carry arbitrage, with hot-rolled coils being the optimal choice [1]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the market is experiencing repeated sentiment and increased price volatility. The cost is supported by coal and manganese ore, but the demand from steel mills recovers slowly, and supply pressure is emerging. The market is in a range-bound state [2][4]. - For coking coal and coke, the situation remains volatile, and risk control is the main focus. The first price increase for spot goods may be postponed to the end of the month. The futures market is dominated by the Middle East situation, and the price may rise or fall depending on the development of the situation. The 05 contract is weaker than the 09 contract [4]. - For iron ore, the price is mainly trading in a high-range. Due to the undetermined negotiation between CITIC Metal and BHP, the price is unlikely to decline significantly in the short term, nor is it likely to break through upward. It is recommended to trade within the range rather than chasing high or shorting [5]. Summary by Content Steel - On March 26, the closing prices of far - month contracts such as RB2610, JM2609, etc., and near - month contracts like RB2605, JM2605, etc., showed different price changes. For example, the far - month RB2610 closed at 3313.00 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 9.00 yuan and a decline rate of - 0.28%. The near - month RB2605 closed at 3128.00 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 14.00 yuan and a decline rate of - 1.13%. The spot prices of Tianjin, Guangzhou, Tangshan, and Shanghai also had corresponding changes [1]. - The market sentiment has cooled, the production and sales data improved marginally on Thursday, and the supply - demand pattern is still good. The peak of plate demand has been reached, while the building materials still have room to grow, with the expected peak in April. Due to geopolitical issues, the cost support logic has loosened, and a sideways trading strategy is recommended. Consider basis trading or cash - and - carry arbitrage, with hot - rolled coils being the optimal choice [1]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Although the impact of geopolitical conflicts on ferrous alloys is mainly through sentiment, coal price increases may support costs. The power cost accounts for a relatively high proportion, and the supply of manganese ore is affected by the typhoon in Australia. The demand from steel mills recovers slowly, and new production capacity in the north is being put into operation, increasing supply pressure. The futures market is strong due to sentiment, but the spot market lags behind, and the basis weakens. The market is in a range - bound state [2][4]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the spot side, the first price increase may be postponed to the end of the month, but the market atmosphere is still positive. The prices of coking coal in auctions are rising, and the prices of port - traded coke and coking coal index have increased. The downstream market is reluctant to accept high - priced Mongolian coal, and the trading atmosphere is cold. On the futures side, the Middle East situation dominates the market. The oil price is in an unstable state, and there are two possible trends, which will directly affect the price of coking coal. The 05 contract is weaker than the 09 contract, mainly due to the delivery logic [4]. Iron Ore - This week, the iron ore price is trading in a high - range. Due to the undetermined negotiation between CITIC Metal and BHP, the price is unlikely to decline significantly in the short term, nor is it likely to break through upward because of the high port inventory and oversupply. The change of BHP's CEO may affect the negotiation. It is not recommended to chase long positions on the futures market. The price is likely to trade in a high - range, and it is recommended to trade within the range [5].