现货端,随着焦企启动补库,叠加部分中间环节入场买货,焦煤整体成交氛围改善,线上竞拍几乎全线上涨。港口贸易准 () 湿熄焦1490(-10),准一于熄焦1680(-20),炼焦煤价格指数1258.6(+8.5);蒙煤方面,口岸通关维持高位,口岸 易企业报价暂稳,市场成交明显放量,现甘其毛都口岸:蒙5原煤1068(-1),蒙5精煤1197(-3),河北唐山:蒙5精像 1305(-)。期货端:资本市场情绪共振,多有反复,波动较大,不过整体依然是以做多为主,媒焦有所回调,不过现货表 现依然较好。基本面来看,市场进入淡季,产业数据表现较弱,本周钢材表需出现超季节性转弱(可能和节假有关),而钥 材产量增加,导致钢材库存转增,煤矿供给也随着新的一年增加,不过产量对比往年依然偏低。接下来关注下游补库是否 逐渐开启。具体到行情上,随着01交割博弈结束,黑色进入淡季讲"预期"的阶段。板块后续主要看能不能找到足够的" 预期"利好,吸引资金拉涨盘面,让期现入场把现货锁住,形成期现联动上涨。参照过往经验,这种行情在旺季前一 直接下跌,项多涨不动陷入震荡,因此偏向于逢低做多,短期内盘面大幅上涨后需要消化情绪,波动加剧, 外要注意天气回暖 ...

国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026年01月14日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：估值偏高，谨慎追多 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：震荡反复 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：震荡反复 | 3 | | 硅铁：宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：高位震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：高位震荡 | 7 | | 动力煤：供需矛盾不突出，短期价格窄幅调整 | 8 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 9 | 商 品 研 究 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | | | 819. 5 | -3.0 | -0. 36% | | | I 2605 | | | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | | | 653. 307 | -1.527 | | | | | 昨日价格(元/吨) | 前日价格(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | | | 进口矿 | 卡粉(65%) ...

中国统计信息服务中心 卓创资讯 据对全国流通领域9大类50种重要生产资料市场价格的监测显示，2026年1月上旬与2025年12月下旬相 比，27种产品价格上涨，20种下降，3种持平。 | 2026年1月上旬流通领域重要生产资料市场价格变动情况 | | --- | | 产品名称 | 单位 | 本期价格 | 比上期 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | （元） | 价格涨跌 | (%) | | | | | （元） | | | 一、黑色金属 | | | | | | 螺纹钢（Φ20mm，HRB400E） | 吨 | 3191.6 | 7.0 | 0.2 | | 线材（Φ8—10mm，HPB300） | 吨 | 3385.9 | 6.8 | 0.2 | | 普通中板（20mm，Q235） | 吨 | 3341.7 | -10.6 | -0.3 | | 热轧普通板卷（4.75—11.5mm，Q235） | 吨 | 3275.3 | 2.2 | 0.1 | | 无缝钢管（219*6，20#） | 吨 | 4051.3 | -13.7 | -0.3 | | 角钢（5#） ...

| | | | SDIC FUTURES | 操作评级 | 2026年01月13日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 | 女女女 | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热着 | な女女 | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | な女女 | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆☆ | | | 證硅 | ★★☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★★☆ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面震荡为主。淡季螺纹表需继续下滑，产量小幅回升，库存开始累积。热卷需求回落，产量继续小幅回升，库存缓慢去 化，压力仍有待缓解。钢厂利润边际修复，高炉逐步复产，铁水短期继续回升，持续性有待观察。从下游行业看，地产投资降 幅继续扩大，基建、制造业投资增速持续回落，内需整体依然偏弱，钢材出口维持高位。市场 ...

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2026 年 1 月 12 日 | 股指期货：春季行情确立 3 | | --- | | 国债期货：债市情绪或有缓和 4 | 0 / 48 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 蛋白粕：供应整体充足 盘面继续承压 5 | | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价震荡收跌，国内糖价小幅震荡 5 | | 油脂板块：关注今日 mpob 报告 6 | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：小麦和玉米持续拍卖，现货稳定 7 | | 生猪：出栏压力好转 现货偏强运行 8 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面底部震荡 9 | | 鸡蛋：需求有所改善，蛋价稳中有涨 10 | | 苹果：冷库库存偏低，苹果价格坚挺 10 | | 棉花-棉纱：大宗商品下调，棉价价格大跌 11 | | 钢材：钢材转向累库，钢价延续震荡 13 | | --- | | 双焦：资金与情绪推动上涨，仍需关注基本面变化 13 | | 铁矿：市场预期反复，矿价高位偏空对待 14 | | 铁合金：成本端推动下，价格震荡偏强 15 | | 金银：非农数据矛盾交织叠加地缘风险 金银价格强势上行 16 | | --- | | 铂钯：宏观总体偏紧，232 ...

国泰君安期货-黑色金属周报合集 国泰君安期货研究所 黑色金属团队 | 林小春 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000526 | linxiaochun@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 李亚飞 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 | liyafei2@gtht.com | | 张广硕 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 | zhangguangshuo@gtht.com | | 刘豫武 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023649 | liuyuwu2@gtht.com | | 金园园 | （联系人）从业资格号：F03134630 | jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com | 2026年01月11日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 1、钢材观点：原料强于成材，钢厂利润延续压缩 2、铁矿周度观点：定价脱离供需，宏观支撑偏强 3、煤焦：供需微妙修复，矛盾仍在积累 4、铁合金观点：多空情绪扰动，盘面交易或回归基本面 Special report on Guota ...

报告导读： 12 月通胀维持稳中有升的态势，其中食品价格的低基数、金价重拾升势、全 球工业金属的狂飙是核心贡献，内需相关的分项价格（如：服务价格、黑色金属）相对稳 定。往后看，核心通胀的韧性预有望延续，但物价弹性的打开仍需内需政策的积极发力。 12月CPI同比增速+0.8%，环比+0.2%；PPI同比增速-1.9%，环比回升至0.2%。 12月通胀保持稳步回升。食品价格低基数是CPI的主要贡献，核心通胀环 比依然处于季节性上沿，同比维持稳定（+1.2%）。12月的金价重拾涨势是核心通胀维持韧性的关键，但中长期回升依然需要居民资产负债表的持续修复。 PPI环比在12月小幅回升，有色金属是主要的贡献。 CPI：食品拖累减轻，服务贡献抬升 PPI：有色延续强势，黑色链条稳定 总体来看，12月的通胀维持稳中有升的态势，其中食品价格的低基数、金价重拾升势、全球工业金属的狂飙是核心贡献，内需相关的分项价格（如：服务价 格、黑色金属）相对稳定。 往后看，核心通胀的韧性预有望延续，但物价弹性的打开仍需内需政策的积极发力。 风险提示： 地产尾部压力依然存在、消费修复动能不及预期。 法律声明 12月PPI同比-1.9%，环比回升 ...

报告类型 黑色金属周报 日期 2026 年 1 月 9 日 021-60635736 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3033782 交易咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 交易咨询证书号： Z0023472 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 黑色品种研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 请阅读正文后的声明 周度报告 请阅读正文后的声明 - 2 - 黑色品种策略推荐 |  | | 黑色品种策略推荐 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1：黑色品种投资策略（仅供参考） | | | | | | | 标的 | 最新 | 策略 | 主导因素 | | | | 价格 | | 方向 | | | | | 单 RB2605 | 3144 | | | | | | 边 | | 震荡 | 板块轮动下的再通胀循环+价 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - All varieties in the black commodity market are rated as "Oscillating" [1] Core View of the Report - The black commodity market is currently in a state of oscillation, with different varieties showing different supply - demand situations and price trends. The cost factors and supply - demand relationships of each variety jointly affect their short - term price movements [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Steel Products (including rebar and hot - rolled coils)** - Rebar: The rebar futures price slightly declined, with the 2605 contract closing at 3168 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton or 0.6%. The spot price was stable, and the trading volume decreased. The supply increased, inventory turned from decreasing to increasing, and the apparent demand significantly declined. However, cost factors provided support, and it is expected to oscillate narrowly in the short term [1] - Iron Ore: The futures price of the main contract i2605 decreased to 813 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton or 1.8%. The global shipping volume decreased, while the iron - making water output increased, and the port and steel mill inventories accumulated. The price is expected to oscillate due to the combination of long and short factors [1] - Coking Coal: The coking coal futures price rose, with the 2605 contract closing at 1190 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton or 2.23%. The supply increased as mines resumed production, and the market sentiment improved. The demand was resilient, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [1] - Coke: The coke futures price declined, with the 2605 contract closing at 1765 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton or 0.45%. The spot price increased. The production of coke enterprises was relatively stable, and the demand from steel mills increased, but the consumption in the off - season limited the increase in iron - making water output. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [1] - Manganese Silicon: The manganese silicon futures price weakened, with the main contract closing at 5892 yuan/ton, down 1.77%. The market price was between 5650 - 5850 yuan/ton. The cost provided support, and the inventory was accumulating. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [1] - Silicon Iron: The silicon iron futures price weakened, with the main contract closing at 5668 yuan/ton, down 3.18%. The market price was about 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton. The supply was expected to decrease, the demand was supported during the steel procurement period, and the inventory was at a high level. It is expected to oscillate widely in the short term [3] Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads**: Different contracts of various varieties showed different spread changes. For example, the 5 - 10 spread of rebar was - 45.0, up 3.0; the 5 - 9 spread of iron ore was 21.0, down 2.5 [4] - **Basis**: The basis of each variety also changed. For instance, the 05 contract basis of rebar was 152.0, up 19.0; the 05 contract basis of iron ore was 60.0, up 2.9 [4] - **Profit and Cross - variety Spreads**: The profit of rebar showed different trends, such as the rebar futures profit being - 98.9, up 9.8. The cross - variety spreads, like the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread, were also provided [4] Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: Charts showed the historical price trends of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron from 2021 to 2026 [6][10][12] - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts presented the historical basis trends of the main contracts of various varieties [16][18][21] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts displayed the historical spread trends between different contracts of each variety [25][31][32] - **Cross - variety Contract Spreads**: Charts showed the historical spread trends between different varieties, such as the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread and the rebar to iron ore ratio [42][44][45] - **Rebar Profit**: Charts presented the historical profit trends of rebar, including futures profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [47][49][50] Black Research Team Members - The black research team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, Zhang Chunjie, etc., each with different professional backgrounds and expertise [52][53] Company Information - The company is located at No. 6, Building 1, Lujiazui Century Financial Plaza, 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company phone is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [54]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The steel market has weak weekly data, with supply rising and demand seasonally weakening. The weakening basis is beneficial for cash-and-carry arbitrage entry, and short-term sentiment has more pricing power than industrial contradictions [2]. - The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese have large fluctuations due to changing market sentiment. Demand is poor and supply is excessive, and the risk of a decline under pressure in the future is relatively large [3]. - After a sharp rise, coking coal and coke have undergone adjustments. The market is in the off-season, and the subsequent trend mainly depends on whether there are sufficient "expectations" to attract funds. It is advisable to go long on dips, but caution is needed due to intensified fluctuations [5]. - Iron ore prices have fallen back after reaching the pressure level. The valuation is moderately high, and it is not recommended to chase long. It is advisable to wait and see [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - On January 8, the closing prices of far-month and near-month contracts of various steel products and their changes are provided, including price, basis, spread, ratio, and profit data [1]. - The weekly data of steel is weak, with supply rising and demand seasonally weakening. The weakening basis is beneficial for cash-and-carry arbitrage entry, and short-term sentiment has more pricing power than industrial contradictions [2]. - It is recommended to participate in long positions with stop-loss, and conduct rolling operations for hot-rolled coil cash-and-carry arbitrage or use option strategies to assist spot procurement [7]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Recently, market sentiment has been changeable, and the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese have fluctuated greatly. Demand is poor, and the weekly apparent demand has dropped to the lowest point of the year. Supply is excessive, and the pressure of supply overhang in the medium term remains [3]. - It is recommended that industrial customers hedge on rallies [7]. Coking Coal and Coke - On January 8, the closing prices of far-month and near-month contracts of coking coal and coke and their changes are provided, as well as spot price data [1]. - The spot market is active, but the downstream's willingness to accept high-priced Mongolian coal is not strong. After a sharp rise, the market has adjusted, and the market is in the off-season. It is advisable to go long on dips, but caution is needed due to intensified fluctuations [5]. - It is recommended to go long on dips [7]. Iron Ore - Iron ore prices have fallen back after reaching the pressure level. The valuation is moderately high, and it is not recommended to chase long. It is advisable to wait and see [6].