1. Report Type and Date - Report Type: Black Metal Weekly Report [1] - Date: January 23, 2026 [2] 2. Research Team - Black Variety Research Team: Researchers include Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, and Feng Zeren [4] 3. Investment Strategy Recommendations 3.1 Unilateral Strategies | Strategy Type | Target | Latest Price | Direction | Dominant Factors | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Unilateral | RB2605 | 3142 | Oscillating Strongly | Global financial market risk appetite rebounds, energy prices spill over to metal markets, five major steel products output rises for four consecutive weeks, demand falls, coke price increase acceptance rises, steel mills replenish iron ore, and Mongolian coal customs volume rebounds [6] | | Unilateral | HC2605 | 3305 | Oscillating Strongly | National electricity load hits winter record, coke enterprises are in continuous losses, steel mills replenish coke, positive news on demand and energy supply, and fundamental supply - demand balance [6] | | Unilateral | J2605 | 1722 | Oscillating Strongly | National electricity load hits winter record, coke enterprises are in continuous losses, steel mills replenish coke, positive news on demand and energy supply, and fundamental supply - demand balance [6] | | Unilateral | JM2605 | 1157 | Oscillating Strongly | National electricity load hits winter record, Mongolian coal customs volume rebounds, coke enterprises replenish coking coal, positive news on demand and energy supply, and fundamental supply - demand balance [6] | 3.2 Spread Strategies | Strategy Type | Target | Latest Price | Direction | Dominant Factors | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Inter - period Spread | I2605 | 795 | Rebound | Decline in Australian and Brazilian shipments and arrivals, increase in five major steel products output, slight rise in daily hot - metal output, improvement in steel mill profitability, pre - holiday inventory replenishment, and high port inventory [6] | 3.3 Cross - Variety Spread Strategies - RB05 - 07, J05 - 09, JM05 - 09, I05 - 09, RB/I, HC - RB, J/JM: Specific trading directions are not provided [6] 4. Logic Basis for Strategies 4.1 RB2605 and HC2605 - Message: Global financial market risk appetite rebounds, and energy prices spill over to metal markets [7] - Fundamentals: Five major steel products output rises, demand falls, and inventory increases. Iron ore price rebounds, and coke price increase acceptance rises. Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments fall, arrivals rise, port inventory is high, and steel mills replenish iron ore. Mongolian coal customs volume rebounds, and supply - demand is balanced [7][8] - Forecast: Prices are expected to be oscillating strongly, and medium - to - long - term long positions can be established on dips [8] 4.2 J2605 and JM2605 - Message: National electricity load hits winter record, and energy prices rise due to geopolitical tensions [9] - Fundamentals: Coke enterprises are in continuous losses, coke output falls, port and steel mill coke inventories rise, Mongolian coal customs volume rebounds, and coking coal inventory in coke enterprises rises [10] - Forecast: Prices are expected to be oscillating strongly, and long positions can be tried on dips [10] 4.3 I2605 - Message: BHP accepts lower prices, and Rio Tinto and BHP plan joint development, causing price drops. But fundamentals are improving [13] - Fundamentals: Australian and Brazilian shipments fall, arrivals are expected to decline. Five major steel products output and hot - metal output rise, steel mill profitability improves, port inventory is high, and steel mills are in pre - holiday inventory replenishment [11][12] - Forecast: Prices are expected to rebound after a decline, but the upside is limited due to high port inventory [13] 5. Steel Market Analysis 5.1 Fundamentals - Price: Main rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices fall [14] - Production and Capacity: Blast furnace capacity utilization and key steel enterprises' crude steel output rise. Daily hot - metal output rises, and EAF capacity utilization falls. Rebar output rises, and hot - rolled coil output falls. Steel mill and social inventories change in different directions [14][17][22] - Downstream Demand: Real estate investment declines, while automobile, metal - cutting machine tool, and household appliance production increase [22] - Apparent Consumption and Profit: Rebar and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption fall, and rebar contract loss narrows [26] - Spot Profit: Long - process and short - process rebar spot profit shows different trends [31] 5.2 Conclusions and Recommendations - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Prices are expected to be oscillating strongly, and medium - to - long - term long positions can be established on dips [33][36] - Basis: Rebar basis is expected to oscillate and narrow, with a range of 90 - 160 yuan/ton. Hot - rolled coil basis is expected to oscillate within - 50 to 20 yuan/ton [36][38] 6. Coke and Coking Coal Market Analysis 6.1 Fundamentals - Price: Coke prices are stable, and coking coal prices rise [40] - Production and Capacity: Coke output from independent coking plants falls, and that from steel enterprises rises. Coking plant capacity utilization falls, and steel enterprise capacity utilization rises [40] - Inventory and Profit: Coke port, steel mill, and coking plant inventories change in different directions. Coking enterprises are in continuous losses. Sample mine output,开工率, and inventory rise. Coking coal imports decline, and coking plant and steel mill inventories rise [43][48] - Monthly Output: National raw coal and coke output increase [50] 6.2 Conclusions and Recommendations - Coke and Coking Coal: Prices are expected to be oscillating strongly, and long positions can be tried on dips [53][54] 7. Iron Ore Market Analysis 7.1 Fundamentals - Price: 62% Platts iron ore index and Qingdao Port PB powder price fall. High - grade and low - grade ore price spreads change [55] - Inventory and Shipping: Port iron ore inventory rises, and daily shipping volume falls. Steel mill inventory and inventory days increase [59] - Shipment and Arrival: Australian and Brazilian shipments fall, and arrivals are expected to decline [61] - Domestic Production: Domestic iron ore output declines, and mine capacity utilization rises. Market transactions improve, but environmental risks exist [68] - Port Transactions and Cost: Port iron ore transactions increase, and steel mill iron water cost rises [70] - Hot - Metal Output and Steel Production: Hot - metal output rises, and steel mill profitability improves [72] - Steel Output and Inventory: Five major steel products output rises, consumption falls, and inventory increases [74][75] - Transportation Cost: Iron ore freight rates mostly rise [77] 7.2 Conclusions and Recommendations - Iron Ore: Prices are expected to rebound after a decline, but the upside is limited due to high port inventory. The basis is expected to oscillate within 40 - 100 yuan/ton [83][84]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market may experience a certain degree of restorative rebound. The implementation of export license management for some steel products is expected to have limited impact on steel exports next year. The supply - demand situation is weak, but the support from the raw material side reappears. [7][8][37] - The contradiction of oversupply in the coal market has been significantly improved by expected factors. The coal - coke futures prices may turn stronger, and investors should adjust their operation ideas. [11][58] - The iron ore market is under pressure. Supply is expected to increase while demand remains weak. Although the iron ore price has rebounded due to the sentiment in the black sector, it may weaken again after the rebound. [13][91] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Black Variety Strategy Recommendations | Strategy Type | Target | Latest Price | Strategy Direction | Dominant Factors | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Single - side Strategy (RB2605, HC2605) | RB2605, HC2605 | 3119, 3269 | Oscillate Strongly | Policy on export license management for steel products, low production of five major steel products, low social inventory, low consumption, and support from the raw material side. [6] | | Single - side Strategy (J2605, JM2605) | J2605, JM2605 | 1740, 1108 | Oscillate Strongly | Indonesia's coal export tariff, potential suspension of coal imports, low coke production, and concerns about supply and cost. [6] | | Cross - period Arbitrage (I2605) | I2605 | 780 | Weaken after Rebound | Increase in Australian and Brazilian shipments, decline in steel production and iron - water output, and increase in port inventory. [6] | | Cross - variety Arbitrage (RB01 - 05, J01 - 05, JM01 - 05, I01 - 05, RB/I, HC - RB, J/JM) | - | - | - | - | [6] | 3.2 Steel 3.2.1 Fundamental Analysis - **Price**: The prices of major rebar and hot - rolled coil in the spot market rebounded in the week of December 19. [14] - **Blast Furnace and Crude Steel**: The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills decreased for 5 consecutive weeks, while the average daily output of crude steel of key large and medium - sized enterprises increased slightly. [14] - **Iron - water and Electric Furnace**: The national average daily iron - water output decreased for 5 consecutive weeks, and the capacity utilization rate of 87 independent electric arc furnace steel mills increased. [18] - **Output and Inventory of Five Major Steel Products**: The weekly output of rebar increased slightly, while the weekly output of hot - rolled coil decreased significantly. The inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil in steel mills decreased. [18] - **Social Inventory**: The social inventory of rebar in 35 cities and hot - rolled coil in 33 cities decreased. [22] - **Downstream Demand**: From January to November, the real estate development investment decreased, while the output of automobiles, metal - cutting machine tools, and some home appliances increased, but the growth rates of some products narrowed. [24] - **Apparent Consumption and Disk Profit**: The apparent consumption of rebar increased, while that of hot - rolled coil decreased. The disk profit of rebar 2605 contract showed a continuous widening of losses. [28] - **Spot Tonnage Steel Gross Profit**: The loss of long - process steel mills' rebar spot tonnage steel gross profit narrowed, and the short - process steel mills' rebar spot tonnage steel gross profit (flat electricity) decreased after turning profitable. [33] 3.2.2 Conclusions and Suggestions - **Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil**: The steel market may experience a restorative rebound. The impact of export license management is expected to be limited, and the support from raw materials reappears. [37][38][39] - **Basis**: The rebar basis is expected to oscillate and narrow, and the hot - rolled coil basis is expected to oscillate within a range. [39][41] 3.3 Coke and Coking Coal 3.3.1 Fundamental Analysis - **Price**: The main coke spot prices were stable, and some coking coal prices fluctuated. [43] - **Output and Capacity Utilization**: The daily output and capacity utilization of independent coking plants and steel enterprises' coke decreased. [43] - **Inventory and Profit**: The port coke inventory decreased, the steel enterprise coke inventory decreased slightly, the independent coking plant coke inventory increased, and the profit of independent coking enterprises decreased. [46] - **Mine Output,开工率 and Inventory**: The daily output and开工率 of 523 sample mines increased, and the inventory of refined coal and raw coal increased. [47] - **Coking Coal Import and Inventory**: The import of coking coal from January to October decreased, and the inventory of coking coal in ports, independent coking plants, and steel enterprises changed differently. [52] - **Raw Coal and Coke Output**: From January to November, the output of raw coal and coke increased, but the growth rates narrowed. [52] 3.3.2 Conclusions and Suggestions The contradiction of oversupply in the coal market has been improved by expected factors. The coal - coke futures prices may turn stronger, and investors should adjust their operation ideas. [56][57][58] 3.4 Iron Ore 3.4.1 Fundamental Analysis - **Price and Spread**: The 62% Platts iron ore index and the price of 61.5% PB powder in Qingdao Port increased, and the spreads between some ore varieties changed. [59] - **Inventory and Unloading Volume**: The inventory of 45 ports increased, the daily average unloading volume decreased, the inventory of steel mills decreased, and the available days increased due to reduced consumption. [64] - **Shipping and Arrival**: The Australian and Brazilian shipments and the arrival volume at 45 ports increased. It is expected that the shipments will remain at a high level at the end of the year. [69] - **Domestic Ore Output and开工率**: From January to November, the domestic iron ore output decreased, and the capacity utilization rate of 186 domestic mines decreased. Some mines will have maintenance in December. [72] - **Port Transaction Volume and Iron - water Cost**: The 5 - day moving average of the main port iron ore transaction volume decreased, and the average iron - water cost of 64 sample steel mills increased slightly. [74] - **Average Daily Iron - water Output, Blast Furnace开工率 and Capacity Utilization**: The average daily iron - water output, blast furnace capacity utilization rate, and开工率 of 247 sample steel mills decreased, and the profitability of steel enterprises was weak. [78] - **Output and Inventory of Five Major Steel Products**: The actual weekly output and consumption of five major steel products decreased, and the inventory of steel mills and society decreased. The output of hot - rolled coil decreased significantly, while that of rebar increased. [80][82] - **Transportation Cost**: The main iron ore freight prices fluctuated, and the Baltic Dry Index and the Capesize Freight Index decreased. [84] 3.4.2 Conclusions and Suggestions - **Iron Ore**: The supply of iron ore is expected to increase, the demand is weak, and the price may weaken again after the rebound. [90][91] - **Basis**: The iron ore basis is expected to oscillate and narrow. [91]

Report Information - Report Type: Black Metal Weekly Report [1] - Date: December 12, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Variety Research Team [4] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [4] Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Views - The steel market is in a state of weak supply and demand, with prices expected to fluctuate weakly. Suggest considering selling hedging or investment strategies on rebounds [8][33][37]. - The coke and coking coal markets are under pressure from both supply guarantee and imports, with prices likely to continue their downward trend. Investors should prepare for prices to return to levels before mid - July [10][55]. - The iron ore market has an expected increase in supply and weak demand, with prices expected to continue weak and fluctuate. Consider shorting coke and coking coal while going long on iron ore for arbitrage [13][83][84]. Summary by Directory Steel Fundamental Analysis - **Price**: The prices of major rebar and hot - rolled coil spot markets declined significantly in the week of December 12 [14]. - **Blast Furnace and Crude Steel**: The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills decreased for 4 consecutive weeks, and the average daily crude steel output of key enterprises decreased in late November [15]. - **Hot Metal and EAF**: The national average daily hot metal output decreased for 4 consecutive weeks, and the capacity utilization rate of 87 independent EAF steel mills declined [19]. - **Output and Inventory**: The weekly output of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased, the rebar inventory in major steel mills decreased, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased [20]. - **Social Inventory**: The social inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil continued to decline [23]. - **Downstream Demand**: The real estate investment decreased year - on - year, while the output of automobiles, metal - cutting machine tools, and some home appliances increased [23]. - **Apparent Consumption and Margin**: The apparent consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased, and the rebar 2605 contract margin showed an expanded loss [27]. - **Spot Rebar Margin**: The long - process rebar spot margin loss expanded, while the short - process margin turned profitable and increased slightly [32]. Conclusion and Suggestions - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Expected to fluctuate weakly. Consider selling hedging or investment strategies on rebounds. Monitor the impact on steel mill profits, port iron ore inventory, and the decline cycle of the coke and coking coal markets [33][37]. - **Basis**: The rebar basis is expected to narrow with a range of 120 - 240 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil basis is expected to fluctuate in the range of - 40 - 50 yuan/ton [37][39]. Coke and Coking Coal Fundamental Analysis - **Price**: The prices of major coke and coking coal spot markets declined [40]. - **Output and Capacity Utilization**: The daily output and capacity utilization rate of independent coking plants and steel enterprises' coke production decreased after rising [40][41]. - **Inventory and Profit**: The port coke inventory decreased, while the steel enterprises' and coking plants' coke inventories increased. Independent coking enterprises had continuous profits [45]. - **Mine Output and Inventory**: The daily output and开工 rate of 523 sample mines decreased, and the inventory increased [46]. - **Import and Inventory**: The import of coking coal decreased from January to October, and the port and coking plants' coking coal inventories increased, while the steel enterprises' inventory decreased [50]. - **Output**: The national coal and coke production increased from January to October [50]. Conclusion and Suggestions - Expected to continue the downward trend. Investors should prepare for prices to return to levels before mid - July [55]. Iron Ore Fundamental Analysis - **Price and Spread**: The 62% Platts iron ore index and the price of 61.5% PB powder in Qingdao Port decreased. The spreads between different ore grades changed [56]. - **Inventory and Unloading**: The port iron ore inventory increased to a new high since April 2022, and the unloading volume increased. The steel mills' inventory days increased [60]. - **Shipping and Arrival**: The shipping volume from Australia and Brazil changed, and the arrival volume decreased. It is expected that the shipping volume will increase later [64]. - **Domestic Output and Operation**: The domestic iron ore output decreased from January to October, and the capacity utilization rate of mines decreased [68]. - **Port Volume and Cost**: The 5 - day moving average of port iron ore trading volume decreased, and the average hot metal cost remained unchanged [70]. - **Hot Metal Output and Utilization**: The average daily hot metal output decreased to a new low since March, and the demand for iron ore is expected to remain weak [72]. - **Steel Output and Inventory**: The actual weekly output of five major steel products decreased, the consumption decreased, the steel mill inventory increased, and the social inventory decreased [74][75]. - **Transportation Cost**: The main iron ore freight rates mostly decreased, and the Baltic Dry Index declined [77]. Conclusion and Suggestions - **Iron Ore**: Supply is expected to increase, demand remains weak, and prices are expected to continue weak and fluctuate. Consider shorting coke and coking coal while going long on iron ore for arbitrage [83][84]. - **Basis**: The basis between Qingdao Port iron ore spot and the 2605 contract is expected to narrow, with a range of 50 - 110 yuan/ton [84].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - After the steel price rebounded last week, there are signs of weakness again. Finished steel production has decreased significantly, apparent demand continues to decline, and inventory is approaching the inflection point of accumulation. It is recommended to take a short - position operation, and the previously suggested short positions in hot - rolled coils and rebar should be held [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The global iron ore shipment volume has continued to increase, reaching a high level this year. The arrival volume is also rising. The demand for molten iron has slightly declined, and the inventory has increased. In the short term, there is obvious suppression on the iron ore price, and the 09 contract should be treated with a short - position mindset. The price range may move down to 670 - 720 [4]. Coke Industry - The coke futures first rose and then fell last week, and the spot market is weakly stable. There are still expectations of 1 - 2 rounds of price cuts. The supply has decreased due to environmental protection, and the demand has slightly declined. The inventory in various sectors is decreasing. It is recommended to short the coke 2509 contract at 1380 - 1430 and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Coking Coal Industry - The coking coal futures first rose and then fell last week, and the spot market is still weak. The supply is at a relatively high level, and the demand has a certain resilience. The inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to short the coking coal 2509 contract at 800 - 850 and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - For ferrosilicon, the production has slightly declined, the demand is weak, and the inventory has increased. The cost may decline, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom. For ferromanganese, the supply pressure still exists, and the price is also expected to fluctuate at the bottom [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in most regions have declined or remained stable, while futures prices have mostly increased. The basis and spreads have also changed [1]. Cost and Profit - The cost of some steel products has changed, and the profit of most steel products has decreased, except for the rebar profit in North China, which has increased [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average molten iron production remains unchanged, the production of five major steel products has decreased by 2.4%, and the inventory of five major steel products has decreased by 0.7% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of some iron ore varieties have changed, and the basis of the 09 contract has generally decreased. The spreads between different contracts have also changed [4]. Supply and Demand - The global shipment volume and arrival volume of iron ore have increased, while the demand for molten iron has slightly decreased, and the inventory has increased [4]. Coke Industry Prices and Spreads - The spot prices of coke are stable, while the futures prices have increased. The basis has decreased, and the coking profit has decreased [6]. Supply and Demand - The supply of coke has decreased due to environmental protection, and the demand has slightly declined. The inventory in various sectors has decreased [6]. Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - The spot prices of coking coal are mostly stable, while the futures prices have increased. The basis has decreased, and the coal mine profit has decreased [6]. Supply and Demand - The supply of coking coal is at a relatively high level, and the demand has a certain resilience. The inventory is accumulating [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Prices and Spreads - The futures prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese have increased, and the spot prices of some varieties are stable. The basis and spreads have changed [7]. Cost and Profit - The production cost of some regions has changed slightly, and the profit situation is not optimistic [7]. Supply and Demand - The production of ferrosilicon has decreased, and the demand is weak. The production of ferromanganese has increased slightly, and the demand has also declined [7]. Inventory - The inventory of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese has increased [7].