欢迎关注微信公众号 【每日精选观点】 品种 合約 观点 层汤偏强 锌 ZN2603 震荡偏强 甲醇 MA2605 偏弱调整 焦煤 JM2605 标调油 短线偏强 P2605 责金 偏强震荡 AU2604 【全品种日评】 板块 品种 主力合约 点评 操作建议 A股持续放量上行后回落,市场交易分歧较大,成 IF2603 大小盘分化持续,板块轮动加速 IH2603 交开始缩量,市场情绪降温,预计进入震荡走势。 股指 IC2603 建议做好组合风险控制,适时止盈部分获利合约, 降低多头仓位,等待再入场机会。 IM2603 昨日资金面边际收敛,央行增加MLF投放,,体现 了在一季度时点央行对资金面的阿护态度明显。目 T2603 资金面阶段性收敛,央行增加MLF投放 前债市仍缺乏交易主线,市场定价仍较为谨慎, TF2603 国债 10年期国债利率在1.8%-1.82%附近或触及下行 TS2603 阻力位,关注T2503合约在108.3附近阻力,短 TI 2603 期仍以震荡看待。单边策略上建议区间操作,不建 金 议追高。期现策略上关注正套以及做阔基差策略。 腰 市场受到宏观地缘事件影响反复支撑金价保持偏强 震荡但波动有所 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not explicitly provided in the report 2. Core Views - Short - term negative factors are exhausted, and the index has rebounded continuously. The broad - based ETF has also clearly flowed back recently, with limited downside space. The volatility is showing signs of recovery, and the robot concept has led the market. The RMB exchange rate has risen significantly, and core assets are expected to rise. A bull spread strategy can be attempted on the CSI 300 index [2] - The 10 - year bond varieties are relatively stable, and the upper limit of the interest rate is not expected to deviate significantly from 1.85%. The T2603 contract should pay attention to the support around 107.6 - 107.8. For the 30 - year bond, the active bond yield around 2.28% may be the stage top, and the bottom of the TL contract may gradually become clear. Short - term attention should be paid to the central bank's MLF injection and the end - of - month treasury bond trading. In the unilateral strategy, it is advisable to buy the T contract varieties on dips. In the spot - futures strategy, appropriate participation in the 2603 contract cash - and - carry arbitrage and basis widening strategy can be considered [2] - Follow - up attention should be paid to the changes in the US economic and monetary policies and the adjustment of the new - year market asset allocation. For gold, the idea of buying on dips is the main strategy for unilateral long positions; silver's high volatility continues to give upward impetus to the price, and it is recommended to hold long positions. Attention should be paid to the repair of the domestic premium, and positions can be reduced or locked in at high prices before the Spring Festival. Palladium may continue to correct under the weak fundamentals, while platinum is relatively strong, and it is advisable to buy the platinum - palladium ratio on dips [2] - The container shipping index is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Equity Index Futures - The short - term negative factors are exhausted, and the index has rebounded continuously. The broad - based ETF has also clearly flowed back recently, with limited downside space. The volatility is showing signs of recovery, and the robot concept has led the market. The RMB exchange rate has risen significantly, and core assets are expected to rise. A bull spread strategy can be attempted on the CSI 300 index [2] Treasury Bond Futures - The 10 - year bond varieties are relatively stable, and the upper limit of the interest rate is not expected to deviate significantly from 1.85%. The T2603 contract should pay attention to the support around 107.6 - 107.8. For the 30 - year bond, the active bond yield around 2.28% may be the stage top, and the bottom of the TL contract may gradually become clear. Short - term attention should be paid to the central bank's MLF injection and the end - of - month treasury bond trading. In the unilateral strategy, it is advisable to buy the T contract varieties on dips. In the spot - futures strategy, appropriate participation in the 2603 contract cash - and - carry arbitrage and basis widening strategy can be considered [2] Precious Metals - Follow - up attention should be paid to the changes in the US economic and monetary policies and the adjustment of the new - year market asset allocation. For gold, the idea of buying on dips is the main strategy for unilateral long positions; silver's high volatility continues to give upward impetus to the price, and it is recommended to hold long positions. Attention should be paid to the repair of the domestic premium, and positions can be reduced or locked in at high prices before the Spring Festival. Palladium may continue to correct under the weak fundamentals, while platinum is relatively strong, and it is advisable to buy the platinum - palladium ratio on dips [2] Container Shipping Index - The container shipping index is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2] Steel and Iron Ore - Steel production is cut and inventories are reduced, and the price maintains a range - bound trend. The May rebar and hot - rolled coil should pay attention to the price ranges of 3000 - 3200 yuan and 3200 - 3350 yuan respectively. The decline of hot - metal output may be limited, and the steel mills' restocking expectation supports the price. Short - term range - bound operation is the main strategy, with the reference range of 760 - 810 [2] Coking Coal and Coke - The coking coal prices at the production areas rise and fall alternately, and the Mongolian coal price fluctuates with the futures. The rebound space of the futures price is limited. It should be regarded as a range - bound market, and short positions can be established on rallies, with the reference range of 1000 - 1200. In December, the third round of coke price cuts was implemented, and the port trading price fluctuates with the futures. It should be regarded as a range - bound market, and short positions can be established on rallies, with the reference range of 1650 - 1800 [2] Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - Production cuts alleviate the supply - demand contradiction, and the cost is stable. It is in a bottom - range - bound market, with the reference range of 5500 - 5700. High inventories suppress the price rebound, and the cost side provides support. Short - term operation is recommended, and short positions can be tried when the price rebounds above the Ningxia spot cost [2] Non - ferrous Metals - The copper futures price has risen sharply, and the domestic spot discount has continued to widen. Short - term observation is recommended, and the main contract should pay attention to the support around 95500; the protective put option combination can continue to be held. The warehouse receipts of alumina are continuously decreasing, and the futures price fluctuates at a low level around the cash cost. The main contract operates in the range of 2600 - 2800, and short - term traders can lightly establish long positions on dips to bet on an emotional rebound. The social inventory of aluminum has increased by 35,000 tons, and the negative feedback of the off - season fundamentals has deepened. The main contract operates in the range of 21800 - 22600, and long positions can be established on dips [2] Energy and Chemicals - After the sharp rise of PX, the current PX price should be treated with caution. Long positions can be reduced at high prices, and it is not recommended to chase the rise; in the medium term, it can be treated with a low - buying strategy; the PX 5 - 9 low - level cash - and - carry arbitrage is the main strategy. PTA has risen sharply following PX, and the current price should be treated with caution. Long positions can be reduced at high prices, and it is not recommended to chase the rise; in the medium term, it can be treated with a low - buying strategy; the TA 5 - 9 low - level cash - and - carry arbitrage is the main strategy [2] Agricultural Products - The Brazilian sugarcane harvest is expected to be bountiful, and the impact of domestic policies should be noted. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly. The demand supports the market, and the price difference between fat and standard pigs has widened. The price is expected to be stable and slightly strong. The long - and short - term game continues to be deadlocked, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of supply. The price is expected to fluctuate narrowly [2]