欢迎关注微信公众号 【每日精选观点】 品种 合約 观点 层汤偏强 锌 ZN2603 震荡偏强 甲醇 MA2605 偏弱调整 焦煤 JM2605 标调油 短线偏强 P2605 责金 偏强震荡 AU2604 【全品种日评】 板块 品种 主力合约 点评 操作建议 A股持续放量上行后回落,市场交易分歧较大,成 IF2603 大小盘分化持续,板块轮动加速 IH2603 交开始缩量,市场情绪降温,预计进入震荡走势。 股指 IC2603 建议做好组合风险控制,适时止盈部分获利合约, 降低多头仓位,等待再入场机会。 IM2603 昨日资金面边际收敛,央行增加MLF投放,,体现 了在一季度时点央行对资金面的阿护态度明显。目 T2603 资金面阶段性收敛,央行增加MLF投放 前债市仍缺乏交易主线,市场定价仍较为谨慎, TF2603 国债 10年期国债利率在1.8%-1.82%附近或触及下行 TS2603 阻力位,关注T2503合约在108.3附近阻力,短 TI 2603 期仍以震荡看待。单边策略上建议区间操作,不建 金 议追高。期现策略上关注正套以及做阔基差策略。 腰 市场受到宏观地缘事件影响反复支撑金价保持偏强 震荡但波动有所 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report [2] Group 2: Core Views - The A-share market is expected to enter a volatile trend after a continuous upward movement followed by a decline, with trading volume shrinking and market sentiment cooling. For the bond market, the short - term capital is relatively loose, and the long - end of the bond futures is strengthening, but there are still some resistance levels. The precious metals market is supported by macro - geopolitical events and shows a relatively strong trend. The steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the prices are oscillating. Other commodity markets also have different trends based on their own supply - demand fundamentals and market factors [2] Group 3: Summaries by Categories Financial Products - **Stock Index Futures**: A - shares have different trends such as a decline after a rally and a weak rebound. It is recommended to control portfolio risks, take profits on some profitable contracts, reduce long positions, and wait for re - entry opportunities [2] - **Bond Futures**: The capital is stable and loose, and the long - end of bond futures is strengthening. It is advisable to temporarily watch on the unilateral strategy and not chase the high. For the spot - futures strategy, pay attention to the positive spreads of TS, T, and TF contracts and the strategy of widening the basis [2] - **Precious Metals**: Gold can be bought at dips above the 20 - day moving average and sell out - of - the - money call options to lock in risks. Silver is in a high - level oscillation, and it is advisable to participate cautiously. Platinum can be bought at dips when it touches the 20 - day moving average, and an option straddle strategy can be used within a certain price range [2] Industrial Products - **Steel and Iron**: Steel has weak supply and demand, with steel prices oscillating. Iron ore supply is in the off - season and ports are accumulating inventory. For coking coal and coke, the market has over - anticipated, and they are expected to be in a downward - biased oscillation. For silicon - related products, the supply - demand situation is improving, and they are in a wide - range oscillation [2] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper prices are oscillating and inventories are accumulating. Aluminum products are affected by macro factors, and there are different trading strategies for different varieties. Zinc prices are oscillating and falling back, and tin is in a wide - range oscillation. Nickel is in an oscillating adjustment, and stainless steel is in a relatively strong oscillation [2] - **New Energy**: Industrial silicon futures are oscillating, polycrystalline silicon is in a weak - biased oscillation, and lithium carbonate is in a strong - biased operation [2] Energy and Chemical Products - Most products have different trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals. For example, PX is in a short - term high - level oscillation, PTA is oscillating and following raw materials, and some products such as short - fiber and bottle - chip are also affected by supply - demand and raw material factors. Some products like ethylene glycol and pure benzene have specific trading strategies based on their inventory and supply - demand situations [2] Agricultural Products - Different agricultural products have different trends. For example, soybean meal has strong bottom support, palm oil may try to break through the annual resistance level, and products like sugar are in a weak - biased oscillation, while cotton needs to pay attention to the support level [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - A-share market has large trading divergence, small and medium - cap indices have a supplementary decline, market sentiment cools down, and volatility converges. A - shares may enter a shock period. It is recommended to control portfolio risks, reduce long positions, and wait for re - entry opportunities [2] - Due to the cooling of the stock market and the influence of the stock - bond seesaw, the bond futures fluctuate and rise. The bond market trend may mainly depend on the policy strength and supply - demand situation in the first quarter, and it may remain in a shock pattern in the short term. The 10 - year bond interest rate may fluctuate in the range of 1.82% - 1.88%, and the T2603 contract may fluctuate in the range of 107.6 - 108.3. Unilateral strategies still maintain range operations, and pay attention to the positive spread of TS, T, and TF contracts and the strategy of widening the basis in the spot - futures strategy [2] - Affected by macro - geopolitical events, the weakening of assets such as the US dollar supports the strong shock of gold prices, but the domestic price is weaker than the overseas market due to the appreciation of the RMB. Hold long positions of gold above the 20 - day moving average; be cautious in participating in silver unilaterally and sell out - of - the - money options to earn volatility reduction benefits; platinum fluctuates strongly above the 20 - day moving average, and an option double - selling strategy can be adopted. Gold performs weaker than platinum and can sell out - of - the - money call options above 510 yuan [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Sector Stock Index Futures - The A - share market has large trading divergence, small and medium - cap indices have a supplementary decline, and market sentiment cools down. It is recommended to control portfolio risks, reduce long positions, and wait for re - entry opportunities [2] Bond Futures - Due to the cooling of the stock market, bond futures fluctuate and rise. The bond market may remain in a shock pattern in the short term. The 10 - year bond interest rate may fluctuate in the range of 1.82% - 1.88%, and the T2603 contract may fluctuate in the range of 107.6 - 108.3. Unilateral strategies maintain range operations, and pay attention to the positive spread of TS, T, and TF contracts and the strategy of widening the basis in the spot - futures strategy [2] Precious Metals - Gold is supported by geopolitical events and maintains a strong shock, but the domestic price is weaker due to RMB appreciation. Hold long positions above the 20 - day moving average. For silver, be cautious in unilateral participation and sell out - of - the - money options. Platinum fluctuates strongly above the 20 - day moving average, with a fluctuation range of 587 - 640 yuan, and an option double - selling strategy can be used. Gold performs weaker than platinum and can sell out - of - the - money call options above 510 yuan [2] Non - Ferrous Metals and Building Materials Sector Steel and Iron Ore - Raw material prices weaken, which may drag down the steel price center. The fluctuation range of rebar is 3000 - 3200, and that of hot - rolled coil is 3150 - 3350. Iron ore prices are weak, and it is recommended to hold long positions in the steel - ore ratio and long positions in the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread. Iron ore is in the off - season of supply, and ports are continuously accumulating inventory, with a wide - range shock in the range of 770 - 830 [2] Coal and Coke - The coal price in Shanxi origin rises more and falls less, and the Mongolian coal price falls from a high level. The coking coal futures price has over - anticipated. It is considered to be in a weak shock unilaterally, with a range of 1000 - 1150. Mainstream coke enterprises start to raise prices, while the port trade price falls. The coke futures price has over - anticipated, with a weak shock in the range of 1600 - 1750 [2] Other Non - Ferrous Metals - For aluminum oxide, the spot accumulates 7.9 tons weekly, and the futures price fluctuates and falls. The main contract runs in the range of 2600 - 2900, and it is recommended to sell short at high prices. For aluminum, the spot trading is cold, and there is a risk of emotional correction in the short term. The main contract runs in the range of 23000 - 25000, and it is recommended to lay out long positions after the correction [2] Energy and Chemical Sector Petrochemical Products - PX has a near - term weak and long - term strong supply - demand situation, with a short - term high - level shock in the range of 7000 - 7500, and a rolling low - buying strategy can be adopted. PTA has a seasonal inventory accumulation expectation, with a short - term shock in the range of 4900 - 5300, and it is recommended to buy low below 5000 and conduct a low - level positive spread for the 5 - 9 contract [2] Other Chemical Products - Ethanol has a seasonal inventory accumulation, and the near - term supply - demand expectation is weak. It is recommended to conduct a high - level reverse spread for the 5 - 9 contract and sell out - of - the - money call options. Pure benzene has improved supply - demand but is restricted by high inventory. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities for BZ2603 and shrink the EB - BZ spread at high levels [2] Agricultural Products Sector Grains and Oils - Bean meal lacks market drivers and runs weakly in a shock. Palm oil is boosted by exports and tries to break through the annual - line resistance, and may try to break through 8900 [2] Livestock and Poultry Products - The price of pork belly has difficulty rising, and the futures price of live pigs is under pressure, running in a shock range. The egg price continues to adjust and runs in a shock range [2] Other Agricultural Products - At the end of the sugar stocking period, the terminal demand is lower than expected, and the price runs weakly in a shock. The cotton price continues to adjust and runs at a high level in a shock. The apple futures price stops falling and stabilizes, and it is recommended to buy put options [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed continued to cut interest rates by 25bp, with an unexpectedly dovish stance, improving short - term global liquidity expectations, but the market lacks upward momentum due to the impact of the Bank of Japan's interest - rate hike expectations [3] - The bond market continued to recover, with ultra - long bonds making up for losses, and the upper - limit expectation of interest rates will not deviate significantly from 1.85% [3] - Precious metals saw value reshaping driven by funds, with silver hitting a new high, but caution is needed due to potential over - bought conditions and regulatory risks [3] Summaries by Related Catalogs Daily Selected Views - Tin (SN2601) and methanol (MA2605) are expected to be oscillating strongly in the short - term; coking coal (JM2605) is expected to rebound from the bottom; palm oil (P2605) is recommended to be shorted on rallies; platinum and lithium (PT2606/PD) are recommended to be bought on dips [3] Full - Variety Daily Reviews Financial Sector - **Stock Index**: The A - share market rebounded led by pro - cyclical stocks, but the market lacks upward momentum and has limited downside space. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously [3] - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market continued to recover, with ultra - long bonds making up for losses. It is recommended to view it as an oscillation, and for trading, fast entry and exit with timely profit - taking are advised. For the 10 - year variety, the upper - limit expectation of interest rates will not deviate significantly from 1.85%, and attention should be paid to the support level of T2603 around 107.6 - 107.8. Short - term attention should be paid to the central bank's MLF injection and end - of - month treasury bond trading. Unilateral strategies suggest short - term waiting and seeing, and for the futures - spot strategy, attention can be paid to the positive spread of the 2603 contract and the opportunity to widen the basis [3] - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals saw value reshaping driven by funds, with silver hitting a new high. Unilateral long positions can be held, but caution is needed when chasing highs and timely profit - taking is recommended. For platinum and lithium, it is recommended to take profit on long positions on rallies or lock positions [3] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The EC main contract oscillated narrowly, and short - term oscillation is expected [3] Commodity Sector - **Steel**: Steel prices maintained an oscillating range. In May, rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to trade in the ranges of 3000 - 3200 yuan and 3200 - 3350 yuan respectively [3] - **Iron Ore**: With a decline in hot - metal production and an increase in port inventory, iron ore oscillated and rebounded, and it is recommended to view it as oscillating upward, with a reference range of 730 - 800 [3] - **Coking Coal**: The spot price of coal in the production area continued to decline, and the Mongolian coal price fluctuated with the futures. The futures price rebounded from an oversold level, and it is recommended to view it as an oscillating rebound, with a reference range of 1000 - 1200 [3] - **Coke**: The second round of price cuts for coke in December was implemented, and the port trading price led the decline. It is recommended to view it as an oscillating rebound, with a reference range of 1450 - 1600 [3] - **Copper**: The inventory in three locations increased, and spot trading was average. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, and pay attention to the support level of the main contract at 90000 - 91000 [3] - **Alumina**: The price oscillated at the bottom, and short - term volatility may increase. Short - term traders can lightly build long positions on dips to bet on an emotional rebound [3] - **Aluminum**: After the interest - rate cut expectation was fulfilled, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 21700 - 22400, and it is recommended to buy on dips [3] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price oscillated following the aluminum price, and the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum narrowed slightly. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 20700 - 21400, and an arbitrage strategy of going long on AD03 and shorting AL03 can be considered [3] - **Zinc**: The center of the zinc price declined, and spot trading improved. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level of the main contract at 22850 - 22950, and continue to hold the cross - market reverse spread [3] - **Tin**: Fundamentals are strong, and the tin price oscillated at a high level. It is recommended to continue holding previous long positions and buy on dips on pullbacks [3] - **Nickel**: The expected quota in Indonesia decreased, and the price repaired from a low level. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 112000 - 116000 [3] - **Stainless Steel**: The price adjusted slightly upward, and the supply - demand imbalance had limited driving force. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 12200 - 12800 [3] - **New Energy**: - **Industrial Silicon**: The expectation of production cuts increased, and the futures price rose and then fell. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 8000 - 8800 [3] - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon futures continued to rise to a new high, and it is recommended to wait and see with a bullish - oscillating view [3] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Market sentiment was stimulated by news, and the price rose sharply. It is recommended to wait and see and reduce long positions appropriately [3] - **Chemical Industry**: - **PX**: The medium - term supply - demand expectation is tight, and there is support at low levels. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 6600 - 7000 in the short - term, and it is recommended to buy on dips [3] - **PTA**: The supply - demand expectation is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term, with limited driving force. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 4500 - 4800 in the short - term, and it is recommended to buy on dips; a positive spread strategy for TA5 - 9 at low levels can be considered [3] - **Short - Fiber**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the processing fee is mainly compressed. The unilateral strategy is the same as that of PTA, and it is recommended to narrow the processing fee on rallies [3] - **Bottle Chip**: The decline in bottle - chip inventory supports the processing fee, and attention should be paid to the progress of device restart and production. It is recommended to sell PR2602 - P - 5500 on rallies; the main - contract processing fee is expected to be strong in the short - term, fluctuating in the range of 300 - 450 yuan/ton [3] - **Ethanol**: Domestic supply is gradually shrinking, but the long - term supply - demand expectation is still weak. It is recommended to sell EG2605 - C - 4100 on rallies to obtain time value [3] - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the price driving force is weak. BZ2603 is expected to oscillate in the range of 5300 - 5600 [3] - **Styrene**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the driving force is limited. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 6400 - 6700 in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the support level around 6400 [3] - **LLDPE**: The North China region maintained a risk - free basis, and trading weakened. It is recommended to wait and see [3] - **PP**: The spot price remained stable, and the basis weakened slightly. Attention should be paid to the expansion of PDH profits [3] - **Methanol**: Both the spot price and the basis strengthened, and trading improved. It is recommended to reduce the MTO spread for the 05 contract [3] - **Caustic Soda**: There is still pressure on supply and demand, and inventory continues to accumulate. It is recommended to take a bearish view [3] - **PVC**: A foreign device was permanently shut down, triggering a sharp rebound in the futures price. It is recommended to take a bearish view on the rebound [3] - **Soda Ash**: Production is at a high level, with prominent over - supply, and there is no continuous driving force for a rebound. It is recommended to wait for a rebound to short [3] - **Glass**: The spot price temporarily stopped falling and stabilized, with no upward positive driving force. It is recommended to stop loss on previous short positions [3] - **Natural Rubber**: There is a stalemate between bulls and bears, and the rubber price oscillates in a range. It is recommended to wait and see [3] - **Synthetic Rubber**: The cost side is strong, and BR continued to rise. Attention should be paid to the pressure level of BR2602 around 11200 [3] Agricultural Products - Soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to have narrow - range adjustments; the pig market has a sentiment of holding back sales, and it is in a bottom - grinding phase; corn is in a narrow - range oscillation; vegetable oils rebounded in the short - term due to US sanctions on Venezuelan oil tankers, and the P main contract may test the support level of 8200 - 8300 in the short - term; sugar is expected to oscillate weakly; cotton's upward trend slowed down and faces hedging pressure, and attention should be paid to the resistance level around 14050 - 14100; egg prices are mostly stable, with a slight decline in inventory in the circulation link, and are expected to oscillate weakly; apple's stocking is less than expected, and it is recommended to exit long positions opportunistically; jujube's new - year supply decreased slightly, and it is recommended to buy low and sell high [3]