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广发期货日评-20250926
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 03:05
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - After the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, the market quickly digested the expectation and turned to shock. With the approaching holiday, the activity of the capital market decreased, and short - term style switching and partial withdrawal would occur [2]. - Without incremental negative news, the 1.8 - 1.83% range may be the high - level range for the 10 - year Treasury bond yield, but in the absence of strong positive factors, the short - term decline in interest rates is also limited [2]. - As the end of the quarter approaches, the liquidity of derivative contracts for gold tightens, and the risk of volatility is relatively large. The silver price is driven by both financial and industrial attributes, with high upward elasticity [2]. - The shipping index on the EC (European line) is rising on the disk, and the steel exports support the black valuation, with steel prices continuing to fluctuate [2]. - The geopolitical risk premium drives the oil price up, but the expected recovery of supply in the Kurdish region limits the rebound height, with short - term shock as the main trend [2]. - The supply of urea remains loose in the short term, and the demand side lacks strong drivers, so the market is weak [2]. - For agricultural products, the supply prospects of overseas sugar are broad, and new cotton is gradually coming onto the market, increasing supply pressure [2]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Financial Stock Index - TMT continues to lead the market, and most stock indices close higher. It is recommended to sell put options on the MO2511 contract with an execution price near 6600 when the index pulls back to collect premiums [2]. Treasury Bond - The MLF is renewed with an increased amount, and the overall trend of Treasury bond futures is volatile. It is recommended to operate within the range for the unilateral strategy and pay attention to quick entry and exit. For the basis spread strategy, the basis of the TL contract fluctuates at a high level, and one can appropriately participate in the basis narrowing strategy [2]. Precious Metals - For gold, maintain the idea of buying on dips or buying out - of - the - money call options. For silver, keep a low - buying strategy as its price fluctuates above $43 [2]. Black Steel - Steel exports support the black valuation, and steel prices continue to fluctuate. Try short - buying on pullbacks and narrow the spread between the January contract of hot - rolled coil and rebar [2]. Iron Ore - The decline in shipments, the increase in molten iron, and the replenishment demand support the high - level shock of iron ore prices. The 2601 contract of iron ore is regarded as volatile, with a reference range of 780 - 850 [2]. Coal - The coal prices in coal - producing areas are stable with a slight upward trend. It is recommended to short the coking coal 2601 contract at high prices, with a reference range of 1150 - 1250, and short the coke 2601 contract at high prices, with a reference range of 1650 - 1800 [2]. Energy and Chemical Crude Oil - The geopolitical risk premium drives the oil price up, but the expected recovery of supply in the Kurdish region limits the rebound height. It is recommended to adopt a unilateral band - trading strategy, with the WTI operating range at [60, 66], Brent at [64, 69], and SC at [471, 502] [2]. Other Chemicals - For various chemicals such as urea, PX, PTA, etc., different trading strategies are proposed according to their supply - demand situations, such as short - selling urea on rallies, and paying attention to the pressure levels for PX and PTA long positions [2]. Agricultural Products - For different agricultural products like soybeans, pigs, corn, etc., different trends and trading suggestions are given. For example, for sugar, conduct short - selling on rebounds; for cotton, short in the short term [2]. Special Commodities - For glass, due to news - driven factors, the glass futures market has risen sharply, and it is recommended to watch cautiously. For rubber, the impact of the typhoon is limited, and the rubber price has fallen slightly, so it is recommended to watch [2]. New Energy - For polysilicon, the market sentiment is repaired, and the futures market rebounds, so it is recommended to watch temporarily. For lithium carbonate, driven by the sector sentiment, the futures market strengthens slightly, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan [2].
广发期货日评-20250923
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 02:50
Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - After the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, the market quickly digested the expectation and shifted to a volatile state. The technology sector still dominates the market. With the holiday approaching, capital activity has declined [2]. - Without incremental negative factors, 1.8% may be the high point for the 10 - year Treasury yield, but in the absence of strong positive factors, the short - term downward movement of the yield is also limited, with resistance around 1.75% [2]. - Gold remains in a high - level volatile state, and its volatility may rise again. Silver has high upward elasticity driven by突发事件 but the sentiment fades quickly [2]. - The EC futures contract continues to decline, and the main contract is weakly volatile [2]. - Steel exports support the valuation of the black commodity sector, and the spread between hot - rolled and rebar contracts is narrowing [2]. - The decline in iron ore shipments, the rebound in molten iron production, and the restocking demand support the strong price of iron ore [2]. - Coal prices at production areas are stable with a slight upward trend, and downstream restocking demand supports the upward trend of coal futures [2]. - The copper market is in a volatile consolidation phase, and the spot trading volume is good below 80,000 [2]. - There are more supply - side disturbances in Guinea for aluminum, and it is expected to fluctuate widely around the bottom of 2900 in the short term [2]. - The supply of tin ore imports remained low in August, providing fundamental support [2]. - Concerns about marginal increases in oil supply have led to a downward shift in short - term oil prices, but geopolitical factors still provide some support [2]. - The high supply pressure of urea persists, and the progress of urea factory orders before the National Day needs attention [2]. - The supply - demand outlook for PX has further weakened, and the cost side is also weak, putting short - term pressure on prices [2]. - The supply - demand situation of PTA has improved slightly but remains weak in the medium term, with limited driving forces [2]. - The short - fiber market has no obvious short - term drivers and follows the raw material price fluctuations [2]. - The demand for bottle - grade polyester chips has improved temporarily, but the supply - demand pattern remains loose, with limited upside for processing fees [2]. - The new ethylene glycol plant commissioning expectation and the weak terminal market put pressure on the upside of MEG [2]. - With the holiday approaching, the mid - stream of caustic soda is in a wait - and - see mode, and the spot price is under pressure [2]. - The spot procurement enthusiasm for PVC is average, and the market is in a volatile state [2]. - The supply - demand outlook for pure benzene has weakened, and the price driving force is limited [2]. - The weak oil price expectation puts pressure on the absolute price of styrene [2]. - The cost and supply - demand drivers for synthetic rubber are limited, and it may follow the trends of natural rubber and other commodities [2]. - The sentiment in the LLDPE spot market has weakened, and the basis remains stable [2]. - The number of PP plant overhauls has increased, and the trading volume is average [2]. - The port inventory of methanol has been accumulating, and the price is weak [2]. - After Argentina取消 the export tax, the two -粕 market is under pressure again [2]. - The pig slaughter pressure is high, and the spot price is unlikely to improve before the National Day [2]. - Under the bearish expectation, the corn futures price continues to decline [2]. - The Sino - US talks did not release incremental positive factors, and the oilseed market is in a volatile adjustment phase [2]. - The overseas sugar supply outlook is broad [2]. - With new cotton gradually coming onto the market, the supply pressure is increasing [2]. - The local domestic sales in the egg market still provide some support for demand, but the long - term trend is bearish [2]. - The early Fuji apples are traded at negotiated prices, and the sales volume is acceptable [2]. - The spot price of red dates fluctuates slightly, and the futures market is in a volatile state [2]. - The overall sentiment in the soda ash market has declined, and the price is trending weakly [2]. - The production and sales of glass have weakened, and the futures price has declined [2]. - Affected by typhoon weather, the rubber price is strongly volatile in the short term [2]. - The market sentiment for industrial silicon has weakened, and the price has declined [2]. - Affected by fundamental sentiment, the polysilicon price has dropped significantly [2]. - With no new news, the market sentiment for lithium carbonate is temporarily stable, and the fundamentals are in a tight balance during the peak season [2]. Summaries by Categories Equity Index Futures - Recommend selling short - term put options on the IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and MO2511 contracts near the strike price of 6600 when the index pulls back to collect option premiums [2]. Treasury Futures - The T2512 contract is expected to fluctuate between 107.5 and 108.35. For single - side strategies, investors are advised to trade within the range, and consider going long lightly when the price pulls back to the low level if the market sentiment stabilizes, but should pay attention to taking profits in time. For the spot - futures strategy, the basis of the TL contract is oscillating at a high level, and investors can appropriately participate in the basis narrowing strategy [2]. Precious Metals - For gold, consider buying at low levels or buying out - of - the - money call options instead of going long. For silver, sell out - of - the - money put options when the price is high [2]. Freight Index Futures (EC) - Consider the spread arbitrage between the December and October contracts [2]. Black Commodities - For steel, try to go long on pullbacks and narrow the spread between the January hot - rolled and rebar contracts. For iron ore, go long on the 2601 contract at low levels, with the reference range of 780 - 850, and consider a long - iron - ore short - hot - rolled strategy. For coking coal, go long on the 2601 contract at low levels, with the reference range of 1150 - 1300, and consider a long - coking - coal short - coke strategy. For coke, go long on the 2601 contract at low levels, with the reference range of 1650 - 1800, and consider a long - coking - coal short - coke strategy [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - For copper, the main contract reference range is 79,000 - 81,000. For aluminum, the main contract reference range is 20,600 - 21,000. For aluminum alloy, the main contract reference range is 20,200 - 20,600. For zinc, the main contract reference range is 21,500 - 22,500 [2][3]. Energy and Chemicals - For crude oil, temporarily observe on the single - side, with the support range of WTI at [60, 61], Brent at [63, 64], and SC at [467, 474]. For urea, wait for the implied volatility to rise and then narrow it. For PX, short on rebounds following the crude oil trend and pay attention to the support around 6500. For PTA, short on rebounds following the crude oil trend, pay attention to the support around 4500, and consider a rolling reverse spread strategy between the January and May contracts. For short - fiber, the single - side strategy is the same as PTA, and the processing fee oscillates between 800 - 1100. For bottle - grade polyester chips, the single - side strategy is the same as PTA, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500. For ethylene glycol, sell call options on rallies and consider a reverse spread strategy between the January and May contracts. For caustic soda, adopt a short - selling strategy. For PVC, observe. For pure benzene, it will follow the benzene - ethylene and oil price fluctuations in the short term. For benzene - ethylene, short on absolute price rebounds and widen the spread between the November benzene - ethylene and November pure - benzene contracts. For synthetic rubber, pay attention to the support around 11,400. For LLDPE, observe near the previous low. For PP, observe in the short term. For methanol, observe as the downward space is currently limited [2]. Agricultural Products - For soybeans and rapeseed meal, adjust weakly in the short term. For live pigs, pay attention to the reverse spread opportunities between the January - May and March - July contracts. For corn, it is in a weak trend. For oils, the main palm oil contract adjusts weakly in the short term. For sugar, hold short positions. For cotton, adopt a short - selling strategy in the short term. For eggs, control the short - position size. For apples, the main contract runs around 8300. For red dates, it is bearish in the medium - to - long term. For soda ash, observe. For glass, observe. For rubber, observe. For industrial silicon, the main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton. For polysilicon, observe temporarily. For lithium carbonate, the main contract is expected to run between 70,000 - 75,000 [2].
南华期货集运周报:9月初现货报价转升为降-20250825
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 07:33
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot index of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFIS) for European routes continued to decline, while that for the US West routes rebounded. The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI), Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), and Ningbo Containerized Freight Index (NCFI) all continued to fall, with slightly wider declines. The futures price was mainly affected by the current cabin quotes on European routes. The current cabin quotes of major shipping companies at the beginning of September turned from rising to falling, pulling down the futures price valuation. For the future market, one can continue to focus on the changes in the current cabin quotes of shipping companies on European routes and the fundamentals of the European route market. The current cabin quotes on European routes and the SCFI European routes both continued to decline, and the futures price was more likely to maintain a slight downward trend in oscillation, showing a trend relay state. The near - month contracts might experience a short - term rebound after falling to a low level [1]. - Traders are advised to temporarily observe in the spot - futures (basis) strategy and remain on the sidelines in the arbitrage (inter - period) strategy [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Abstract - The Shanghai Export Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for European routes of the current - period futures target continued to decline, while that for US West routes rebounded. The CCFI, SCFI, and NCFI all continued to fall, with slightly wider declines. The futures price was mainly affected by European route current - cabin quotes. The current - cabin quotes of major shipping companies at the beginning of September turned from rising to falling, pulling down the futures price valuation. For the future, pay attention to European route quotes and market fundamentals. The futures price may oscillate slightly downward, and near - month contracts may rebound after hitting lows [1]. 3.2. Trading Strategies - Spot - futures (basis) strategy: Traders should temporarily observe [2]. - Arbitrage (inter - period) strategy: Traders can temporarily remain on the sidelines [2]. 3.3. Market Review - As of Friday, except for EC2508, the closing prices and settlement prices of other monthly contracts declined. For example, the closing price of EC2510 fell 4.70% from the previous week to 1309.0 points, and the settlement price dropped 3.57% to 1324.0 points. The main influencing factor was the European route current - cabin quotes [3]. 3.4. Spot Information - Freight Rates - As of August 18, the SCFIS European route continued to decline with a 2.47% month - on - month decrease (previous value - 2.71%), while the US West route rebounded with a 2.23% increase (previous value - 4.25%). As of August 22, the CCFI, SCFI, and NCFI continued to fall with wider declines. In terms of routes, the North American routes' declines widened, and the European route decline also expanded [8]. 3.5. Spot Information - Demand Side - There are data on the week - on - week and year - on - year changes in the deployed capacity of different routes, as well as the latest shipping regional trade capacity and its month - on - month changes [20][23][24]. 3.6. Spot Information - Supply Side - As of August 23, the global container ship idle capacity ratio was 4.0%. The idle capacity of 17000TEU+ container ships was 37954TEU, accounting for 0.8% of this type of ships; the idle capacity of 12000 - 16999TEU container ships was 82977TEU, accounting for 1.0% of this type of ships. The congestion index of Shanghai Port increased by 34.4 thousand TEU to 609.7 thousand TEU; Rotterdam Port decreased by 41.3 thousand TEU to 199.5 thousand TEU; Antwerp Port increased by 9.4 thousand TEU to 93.7 thousand TEU; Hamburg Port decreased by 3.8 thousand TEU to 109.8 thousand TEU [27][30]. 3.7. Spread Analysis - The current - period SCFIS European route continued to decline with a stable 2.47% month - on - month decrease, closing at 2180.17 points. The basis of the main contract EC2510 first narrowed slightly from last week and then widened slightly. The European route current - cabin quotes of major shipping companies continued to decline, leading the futures price trend. As the container shipping market is about to exit the traditional peak season, demand support is gradually decreasing. The basis remains at a relatively high level compared to the previous period. Traders should temporarily observe in the spot - futures aspect. The spreads of the container shipping European route inter - period contract combinations such as EC2508 - EC2510, EC2508 - EC2512, and EC2510 - EC2512 are given, and traders can temporarily remain on the sidelines [35][37][38].
液化石油气日报:原油端支撑稳固,但基本面驱动仍偏弱-20250711
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-11 02:46
Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Weak and oscillating; Inter - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [2] Core Viewpoint - Although the crude oil price was strong this week, its boost to the LPG market was limited. The price trends of domestic and foreign LPG were relatively flat, and the market lacked driving forces. The supply was sufficient, while the demand was weak, especially in the civil sector, and the growth space for deep - processing was limited [1] Market Analysis - On July 10, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4550 - 4610; Northeast market, 4160 - 4330; North China market, 4425 - 4650; East China market, 4380 - 4650; Yangtze River market, 4570 - 4690; Northwest market, 4050 - 4350; South China market, 4570 - 4700 [1] - In the second half of July 2025, the CIF price of propane in East China was 577 dollars/ton, up 6 dollars/ton, and butane was 552 dollars/ton, up 3 dollars/ton. In RMB, propane was 4542 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton, and butane was 4346 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton [1] - In the first half of August 2025, the CIF price of propane in South China was 577 dollars/ton, up 3 dollars/ton, and butane was 552 dollars/ton, up 3 dollars/ton. In RMB, propane was 4542 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton, and butane was 4346 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton [1] - The prices in Shandong and the Yangtze River region decreased yesterday, while other regions remained stable. Overseas supply was abundant, and domestic commercial volume increased, with overall sufficient supply. Civil demand was in the off - season and remained low. PDH profit in deep - processing recovered, and the load increased, but the growth space was limited [1] Figures - There are figures showing the spot prices of civil LPG in Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Northeast, and the Yangtze River regions, the spot prices of ether - post carbon four in Shandong, East China, North China, Northeast, the Yangtze River, and Northwest regions, and the closing prices, month - to - month spreads, and trading volume and open interest of PG futures contracts [3]
广发期货日评-20250613
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-13 05:51
Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The report provides operation suggestions for various futures contracts across different sectors, including stock index, treasury bond, precious metal, shipping, steel, energy, chemical, agricultural products, and new energy, based on their respective market conditions and trends [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - A-share market opened lower, oscillated, and showed differentiation, with finance and consumption sectors performing better. Index futures have stable lower support but face upward breakthrough pressure, and are affected by tariff negotiations and news in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Treasury Bond - Treasury bond futures showed differentiated trends, with ultra-long bonds performing strongly. Attention should be paid to tax periods and cross - half - year liquidity. For the 10 - year bond, 1.6% is the downward resistance level. In the unilateral strategy, it is advisable to appropriately allocate long positions on dips, and in the cash - futures strategy, pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy of TS2509 [2]. Precious Metal - Gold is in a short - term range - bound oscillation, with a possibility of hitting the $3400 mark. A double - selling strategy for gold options can be used to earn time value. Attention should be paid to the flow of speculative funds in silver, and long positions should temporarily exit [2]. Shipping - The main contract of the container shipping index (European line) is oscillating. It is considered to buy on dips or focus on the 12 - 10 reverse arbitrage opportunity [2]. Steel - Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. For steel, unilateral operation should wait and see, and pay attention to the long - steel short - raw material arbitrage operation. Iron ore is in a range - bound oscillation, and attention should be paid to the marginal change in terminal demand [2]. Energy and Chemical - For crude oil, consider buying on dips for the main contract or focus on the 12 - 10 reverse arbitrage opportunity. For various chemical products, different operation suggestions are given according to their supply - demand and price trends, such as short - selling on rallies for some products and range - bound operation for others [2][3]. Agricultural Products - Different agricultural product futures have different trends. For example, sugar is recommended to be short - sold on rallies, and palm oil may test the 7800 support level [3]. New Energy - Polysilicon futures increased in positions and declined, and short positions should be held. Lithium carbonate futures are under pressure and are expected to run in the range of 56,000 - 62,000 [4].
石油沥青日报:市场支撑稳固,现货挺价意愿偏强-20250604
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-04 03:01
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The asphalt market has a solid short - term support, with the spot market showing a strong willingness to hold prices. However, the improvement in the consumption side is still insufficient, and the increase in rainfall in the south will limit project construction and terminal demand, restricting the market's upward space. The supply - demand weakness pattern continues, but due to the low pressure on regional traders at the beginning of the month, the average domestic asphalt price has increased [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Analysis - On June 3, the closing price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2507 in the afternoon session was 3482 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan/ton or 1.22% from the previous day's settlement price. The position was 95984 lots, down 4606 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 196526 lots, down 98818 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast, 3780 - 4091 yuan/ton; Shandong, 3470 - 3870 yuan/ton; South China, 3410 - 3450 yuan/ton; East China, 3530 - 3620 yuan/ton. Prices in Shandong, North China, and East China markets rose yesterday, while prices in other regions remained stable [1]. - The supply - demand weakness pattern of asphalt continues. The rigid demand for asphalt is generally poor, but due to the low shipment pressure of regional traders at the beginning of the month, the willingness to hold prices is strong, leading to an increase in the average domestic asphalt price. Currently, the increase in market supply is limited, and both the overall operating rate and inventory are at low levels, resulting in limited market pressure and a solid short - term support. However, the improvement in the consumption side is still insufficient [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation [2]. - Inter - delivery: Go long on the spread of BU2507 - 2509 at low prices (positive spread trading) [2]. - Inter - commodity: None [2]. - Futures - cash: None [2]. - Options: None [2].
国债期货:资金面均衡偏松 期债窄幅波动
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-06-04 01:56
Market Performance - The majority of government bond futures closed lower, with the 30-year main contract up by 0.03%, while the 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year main contracts fell by 0.03%, 0.04%, and 0.04% respectively [1] - The yields on major interbank bonds decreased across the board, with the 30-year government bond yield rising by 1.25 basis points to 1.9315%, the 10-year bond yield up by 0.1 basis points to 1.676%, and the 3-year bond yield increasing by 1 basis point to 1.49% [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 454.5 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with the same amount being the bid and winning amount [2] - A total of 830 billion yuan in reverse repos matured on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 375.5 billion yuan [2] - The interbank market showed a balanced and slightly loose funding condition, with overnight weighted rates around 1.40% and non-bank institutions borrowing at approximately 1.55% [2] Operational Suggestions - Concerns over certificate of deposit supply and funding conditions may lead to slight weakness in the bond market [3] - June is a critical month for exports, with high-frequency data indicating downward pressure but overall resilience, supporting industrial production [3] - Short-term bond yields are expected to face resistance near previous lows, while long-term yields may rise due to potential pressures from external demand [3] - The forecast for bond market yields suggests a range for the 10-year bond yield between 1.6% and 1.75%, and for the 30-year bond yield between 1.8% and 1.95% [3] - Investment strategies include range trading and attention to the TS2509 contract for potential opportunities [3]
国债期货:期债全线下行 短期难摆脱窄幅震荡
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-05-28 02:03
Market Performance - Treasury futures closed lower across the board, with the 30-year main contract down 0.26% at 119.460, the 10-year main contract down 0.11% at 108.735, the 5-year main contract down 0.03% at 106.030, and the 2-year main contract down 0.02% at 102.408 [1] - Major interbank bond yields rose, with the 30-year government bond yield increasing by 0.8 basis points to 1.9180%, the 10-year government bond yield rising by 1.4 basis points to 1.7090%, and the 3-year government bond yield up by 0.50 basis points to 1.4925% [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a fixed-rate reverse repurchase operation of 448 billion yuan for 7 days at an interest rate of 1.40%, with a net injection of 91 billion yuan for the day [2] - Liquidity remains loose, with overnight and 7-day pledged repo rates declining, the former down over 6 basis points and the latter down over 3 basis points [2] - The one-year interbank certificates of deposit rates are around 1.71%, showing little change from the previous day, indicating pressure on banks' liabilities [2] Operational Suggestions - The bond market is expected to continue a narrow range of fluctuations, with limited risk of a significant decline in the short term due to the central bank's support for liquidity [3] - Short-term 10-year government bond yields are anticipated to fluctuate between 1.65% and 1.7%, while 30-year government bond yields are expected to range between 1.85% and 1.95% [3] - A single strategy of observation is recommended, focusing on high-frequency economic data and liquidity dynamics, while a spread strategy is suggested for the 2509 contract [3]
液化石油气日报:进口码头货源充裕,低价出货好转-2025-03-25
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-03-25 05:18
Group 1: Market Analysis - On March 24, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market 4740 - 4820 yuan/ton, Northeast market 4430 - 4510 yuan/ton, North China market 4800 - 4850 yuan/ton, East China market 4950 - 5150 yuan/ton, Yangtze River market 5120 - 5230 yuan/ton, Northwest market 4650 - 4880 yuan/ton, South China market 5000 - 5150 yuan/ton [1] - In the second half of April 2025, the CIF prices of refrigerated cargo in East China were propane at 618 US dollars/ton (up 1 US dollar/ton) and butane at 608 US dollars/ton (up 1 US dollar/ton), equivalent to RMB prices of propane at 4884 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton) and butane at 4805 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton); in South China, propane was 614 US dollars/ton (up 1 US dollar/ton) and butane was 604 US dollars/ton (up 1 US dollar/ton), equivalent to RMB prices of propane at 4852 yuan/ton (up 9 yuan/ton) and butane at 4773 yuan/ton (up 9 yuan/ton) [1] - The mainstream transaction price in the South China civil gas market yesterday was 5000 - 5150 yuan/ton, up from the previous working day. The small quantity of major refineries supported the price increase. The refinery in Beihai, Guangxi is about to undergo maintenance, with a small quantity and little sales pressure, and some low - priced products had more sales than production. The mainstream transaction price in the Pearl River Delta imported gas market was 5060 - 5120 yuan/ton. There were many arriving ships at the import terminals, the market supply was relatively abundant, and the low - price shipments were acceptable [1] - The PG futures price has rebounded continuously recently. After the cancellation of the March warehouse receipts, the upward resistance in the market will be reduced, but the fundamentals may lack continuous driving force [1] Group 2: Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation - Inter - period: None - Inter - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [2]