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国债期货日报:债市开门红,国债期货全线收涨-20251010
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 05:59
国债期货日报 | 2025-10-10 债市开门红,国债期货全线收涨 市场分析 宏观面:(1)宏观政策:2025年8月1日,财政部与税务总局发布公告称,自2025年8月8日起,对在该日及以后新 发行的国债、地方政府债券和金融债券的利息收入将恢复征收增值税。此前已发行的上述债券(包括8月8日后续 发行的部分)仍享受免征增值税政策,直至到期;关税方面,中美发布斯德哥尔摩经贸会谈联合声明,自2025年8 月12日起再次暂停实施24%的关税90天;国务院第九次全体会议强调,采取有力措施巩固房地产市场止跌回稳态势, 培育壮大服务消费,加力扩大有效投资;9月10日,财政部长明确表示,"持续发力、适时加力实施更加积极有为 的宏观政策";发改委也表示"不断释放内需潜力" 和 "推进重点行业产能治理"。(2)通胀:8月CPI同比下降0.4%。 资金面:(3)财政:财政:8月末,M2同比增长8.8%,M1同比回升至6%,剪刀差连续收窄,显示资金活性增强, 企业经营活力改善。前八个月人民币贷款增加13.46万亿元,社融增量累计26.56万亿元,政府债券融资占比高企, 反映企业中长期融资需求仍偏弱。存款同比增长8.6%,信贷和存款增 ...
国债期货:长假后债市开门红 期债各品种均走暖
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-10-10 01:36
【操作建议】 基本面而言,9月经济前瞻指标呈现旺季回升迹象,但是供需结构性矛盾仍存,内需回升偏慢仍是约 束,货币政策当前以抓执行为主,如果三季度GDP弱于预期货币政策有加力可能。短期节后债市一方面 关注基金赎回费新规落地情况,二是关注市场风险偏好变化,10月中旬以前政策预期可能继续驱动股 牛,这种情形下债市情绪仍有可能受到风偏压制,如果出现超预期冲击也不排除出现超调。不过当前资 金面基调宽松和长短期限利差回归正常水平也制约长债下跌的幅度,如果10年期国债利率上行至1.8% 以上区间配置价值有所回升。短期期债预计继续区间震荡,T2512震荡区间可能在107.4-108.3,建议以 观望为主等待超调机会。 免责声明:本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料,但广发期货对这些信 息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。在任何情况下,报告内容仅供参考,报告中的信息或所表达的意见 并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价,投资者据此投资,风险自担。本报告的最终所有权归报告的来源 机构所有,客户在接收到本报告后,应遵循报告来源机构对报告的版权规定,不得刊载或转发。 央行公告称,10月9日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 ...
每日债市速递 | 央行公开市场单日净回笼1.45万亿
Wind万得· 2025-10-09 22:39
1. 公开市场操作 央行公告称, 10 月 9 日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 6120 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作,操作利率 1.40% ,投标量 6120 亿元,中标量 6120 亿元。 Wind 数据显示,当日 20633 亿元逆回购到期,据此计算,单日净回笼 14513 亿元。 (*数据来源:Wind-央行动态PBOC) 2. 资金面 资金面方面,长假后首个交易日,银行间市场资金面较为宽松,周四存款类机构隔夜回购利率降约 6bp 报在 1.32% 附近;匿名点击( X-repo )系统上, 隔夜报价小降至 1.32% 左右。非银机构以信用债借入隔夜报价也有所下行,但仍在 1.5% 上方,尚未回到流动性特别宽松时的水平。交易员称, 央行 开 展的逾万亿买断式逆回购,缓解了公开市场巨量 逆回购到期 压力。 海外方面,最新美国隔夜融资担保利率为 4.14% 。 (IMM) // 债市综述 // 3. 同业存单 全国和主要股份制银行一年期同业存单最新成交在 1.66% 附近,较上日降超 1bp 。 6. 国债期货收盘 30 年期主力合约涨 0.46% 10 年期主力合约涨 0.15% 5 年期主力合约涨 0. ...
债市情绪偏弱,国债期货全线收跌
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 05:16
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market sentiment is weak, with all treasury bond futures closing lower. The bond market is volatile between the expectations of stable growth and monetary easing, and short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month. The recovery of risk preference suppresses the bond market, and the expectation of the Fed's continued interest rate cuts and the increase in global trade uncertainty add to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows [1][3]. 3. Summary According to Catalogues I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) has a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 0.40% year - on - year change; China's PPI (monthly) has a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 2.90% year - on - year change [9]. - Monthly economic indicators: The social financing scale is 433.66 trillion yuan, with a monthly increase of 2.40 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.56%. M2 year - on - year is 8.80%, with no change. The manufacturing PMI is 49.40%, with a 0.10% increase and a growth rate of 0.20% [10]. - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index is 97.94, down 0.25 or 0.25%. The US dollar against the offshore RMB is 7.1237, down 0.017 or 0.24%. SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.52, up 0.03 or 1.74%. DR007 is 1.59, up 0.03 or 2.04%. R007 is 1.51, down 0.05 or 3.26%. The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.58, down 0.01 or 0.43%. The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with a - 0.43% change [11]. II. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market - Relevant figures include the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of treasury bond futures, the price change rate of each variety of treasury bond futures, the precipitation funds trend of each variety of treasury bond futures, the position ratio of each variety of treasury bond futures, the net position ratio of the top 20 in each variety of treasury bond futures, the long - short position ratio of the top 20 in each variety of treasury bond futures, the spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds, and the issuance of treasury bonds [15][16][18]. III. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - Relevant figures include the Shibor interest rate trend, the yield - to - maturity trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the transaction statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and the issuance of local government bonds [33][27]. IV. Spread Overview - Relevant figures include the inter - period spread trend of each variety of treasury bond futures, the spread between the spot bond term spread and the futures cross - variety spread (4*TS - T), (2*TS - TF), (2*TF - T), (3*T - TL), (2*TS - 3*TF + T) [31][35][36]. V. Two - year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant figures include the implied interest rate of the main contract of two - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TS main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TS main contract [48][42][51]. VI. Five - year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant figures include the implied interest rate of the main contract of five - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TF main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TF main contract [53][58]. VII. Ten - year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant figures include the implied yield of the main contract of ten - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the T main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the T main contract [60][65][62]. VIII. Thirty - year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant figures include the implied yield of the main contract of thirty - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TL main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TL main contract [67][72][73]. Strategies - Unilateral strategy: The repurchase rate is volatile, and the price of treasury bond futures is also volatile. - Arbitrage strategy: Pay attention to the decline of the basis of the 2512 contract. - Hedging strategy: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].
中债策略周报-20250929
Zhe Shang Guo Ji· 2025-09-29 15:34
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July, before the central bank's policy direction becomes clearer, the bond market is unlikely to see significant movements. However, with the injection of incremental funds from insurance, wealth management, and banks, interest rates may gradually approach previous lows, accompanied by some structural market trends. Therefore, pre - arranging for the to - be - allocated varieties of incremental funds is a dominant strategy. Good choices include ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds favored by the "cost - reduction" of insurance in July and sinking credit varieties with a maturity yield in the 2.0% - 2.2% range for betting on the growth of wealth management scale [5]. - In June and the second half of the year, aside from the uncertainty of tariffs, there are few foreseeable negative factors in June. The fundamental data is still mixed, and its indication of the interest rate direction is not strong. Even if long - term interest rates retreat, the amplitude may be relatively controllable. The smooth downward trend of long - term interest rates may occur after the cross - quarter period. High - cost - performance varieties such as ultra - long local bonds, long - term agricultural development bonds, and export - import bank bonds can be preferentially selected [41]. Summary by Directory Bond Market Performance Review - The change in the central bank's statement on reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in the monetary policy draft this week dampened market expectations of easing. The yields of 10 - year and 30 - year active Treasury bonds increased by 0.5 and 2.3 bps respectively, while the yield of 1 - year Treasury bonds decreased by 1.5 bps [2][11]. - In the interest - rate bond market, yields of bonds with a maturity of 5 years and below generally decreased by 3 - 4 bps, with the 1 - year Treasury bond yield breaking through the 1.40% resistance line to 1.36%. The yields of 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bonds remained stable at 1.65% and 1.85% respectively. In the credit - bond market, the market continued the idea of spread mining, and long - term varieties became the focus. Yields of some credit - bond varieties decreased to different extents [14]. Bond Market Primary Issuance Situation - This week, 4223 billion yuan of local bonds were issued, and 508 billion yuan are scheduled to be issued from June 30 to July 4. As of June 27, 21635 billion yuan of new special bonds have been issued, an increase of 6542 billion yuan year - on - year, accounting for 49% of the 4.4 - trillion - yuan quota. 1110 billion yuan of Treasury bonds were issued this week, with a net issuance of 1110 billion yuan, including 710 billion yuan of special Treasury bonds. 1150 billion yuan of policy - financial bonds were issued this week, with a net issuance of 109 billion yuan [19]. Funds Market Situation - During the cross - quarter period, the upward pressure on funds was relatively controllable. Despite tax - period disturbances, the overnight funds remained stable, while the 7 - day interest rates rose significantly. The R007 and DR007 increased by 24 bp and 13 bp respectively compared with the previous week. The overnight and 1 - week Shibor rates closed at 1.37% and 1.67% respectively, with changes of +0.3 and +13.9 bps compared with last week. The overnight and 1 - week CNH Hibor rates closed at 2.02% and 2.06% respectively, with changes of +37.7 and +19.8 bps compared with last week [23][25]. - In the context of the tightening of the end - of - quarter funds, the overall trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase decreased, and the weighted issuance period of inter - bank certificates of deposit was compressed [28]. China's Bond Market Macro - environment Tracking and Outlook - In June, the manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from May. The performance of major industries remained strong, with improvements in both supply and demand. The production index rose 0.3 percentage points to 51%, and the new order index was 50.2%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [31]. - From January to May, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 27204.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1%, and the profit growth rate slowed down compared with January - April. Although new - energy industries contributed significantly to profit growth, industrial product prices remained low, and there was still a large space for increasing effective demand [33]. - The US dollar index has been below 100 in the past week, and the offshore RMB has continued to appreciate. The central bank may maintain a loose tone in the second half of the year. This week, the central bank's net open - market injection was 12672 billion yuan, the second - highest single - week net injection this year [38]. China's Bond Market Weekly Summary and Outlook - The economic data in May was mixed. The GDP under the production method remained high, while the terminal demand under the expenditure method was differentiated. The annual 5% real growth target is likely to be achieved. In the future, policies may focus on structural short - board compensation and improving nominal growth [42]. - Monetary policy will continue to be loose to cooperate with fiscal bond issuance, and the liquidity is likely to remain loose. In June and the second half of the year, high - cost - performance bond varieties can be preferentially selected [40][41].
10月债市调研问卷点评:投资者看多情绪上升
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-09-29 10:28
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Standing at the end of September and looking forward to October, investors' judgments on the bond market in the next stage are quite divided. There is a consensus on maintaining a preference for medium - short - term and long - term interest - rate bonds, and the proportion of bullish sentiment has increased. The funding situation, the equity market, and institutional behavior have become the core concerns of investors, and their preference for convertible bonds and low - grade urban investment bonds has marginally weakened [1]. - According to the bond market survey questionnaire results released at the end of September, there are four mainstream expectations for the bond market in October: 1) The expected range of the upper and lower limits of long - term treasury bond yields is relatively concentrated, and long - term treasury bond yields still show a state of "capped on the upper end and floored on the lower end"; 2) The bullish sentiment in the bond market has slightly increased, and the proportion of those who think it's time to increase positions has significantly risen, while expectations for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts are divided; 3) Investors' overall expectations for the economy in September have changed. Monetary policy, the funding situation, and the performance of the equity market are the core issues that investors focus on, and the game of institutional behavior has returned to the focus of investors; 4) Looking forward to October, investors unanimously expect to maintain their positions in medium - short - term interest - rate bonds and increase their preference for long - term interest - rate bonds, while their preference for convertible bonds has declined [2][10]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Investor Bullish Sentiment Rises - A bond market survey questionnaire "What to Expect from the Bond Market in October?" was released on September 25, 2025. By 00:00 on September 28, 204 valid questionnaires were received, covering various institutional investors and individual investors such as bank self - operations, securities firm self - operations, and public funds/special accounts [9]. 3.2 Expectations for Treasury Bond Yields 10 - year Treasury Bond Yields - Regarding the lower limit, 44% of investors think it will likely fall in the range of 1.70% - 1.75% (inclusive), 30% think it will be in the range of 1.75% - 1.80% (inclusive), 14% think it will fall below 1.70%, and about 12% think it will exceed 1.80%. Regarding the upper limit, 49% of investors think it will likely fall in the range of 1.85% - 1.90% (inclusive), about 29% think it will be below 1.85%, and 11% each think it will be in the range of 1.90% - 1.95% (inclusive) and above 1.95%. Current investors' expectations for the rise of 10 - year treasury bond interest rates have gradually increased compared with the August survey results, but they remain cautious about the judgment of breaking through key points [11]. 30 - year Treasury Bond Yields - Regarding the lower limit, 34% of investors each think it will fall in the ranges of 1.95% - 2.00% (inclusive) and 2.00% - 2.05% (inclusive), about 19% think it will be above 2.05%, and only 13% think it will be below 1.95%. Regarding the upper limit, about 35% of investors think it will fall in the range of 2.10% - 2.15% (inclusive), 33% think it will be in the range of 2.15% - 2.20% (inclusive), and about 19% think it will break through 2.20%. Since September, the 30 - year treasury bond yield has continued to rise, and investors are quite cautious about the expectation that it may further increase [13]. 3.3 Expectations for the Economic Situation in September - 54% of investors think the economy in September will show a situation of "both supply and demand weakening", 29% think it will be "demand weakening, supply strengthening", 9% think it will be "both supply and demand strengthening", and 8% think it will be "demand strengthening, supply weakening". In September, 83% of investors think the demand side has generally weakened, and only 38% expect the supply side to strengthen, indicating that the market is relatively cautious about the expectation of supply expansion [14][17]. 3.4 Expectations for Reserve Requirement Ratio Cuts and Interest Rate Cuts - Regarding reserve requirement ratio cuts, 36% of investors think there will be no more cuts this year, 27% think the next cut may occur in October, 23% think it will be in November, and 15% think it will be in December. Regarding interest rate cuts, 53% of investors think there will be no more cuts this year, 19% think the next cut may occur in October, 13% think it will be in November, and 15% think it will be in December. Compared with the August survey results, investors' expectations for reserve requirement ratio cuts have slightly increased, while their expectations for interest rate cuts have slightly decreased [18]. 3.5 Impact of the Fed's 25bp Interest Rate Cut on the Domestic Bond Market - 64% of investors think the Fed's 25bp interest rate cut has limited impact on the domestic bond market, and the domestic fiscal and supply rhythm still need to be considered. 13% think it is beneficial for the repair of the Sino - US interest rate spread and can ease the pressure on RMB depreciation. 12% think the interest rate cut signal strengthens the downward movement of the global interest rate center, which is beneficial for the long - duration trend in the domestic market. Another 12% think the external disturbance is difficult to determine. Most investors think the interest rate cut is not a significant surprise, and its impact on the domestic bond market is relatively limited [22]. 3.6 Expectations for the Bond Market in October - 32% of investors think the bond market in October will strengthen overall, among which 20% expect the yield curve to be bull - flattened (a slight decrease compared with the August survey results), and 12% expect the yield curve to be bull - steepened. 29% of investors think the bond market will be weak. 20% of investors think the bond market may show a differentiation between the short - end and long - end, favoring a strong short - end and a weak long - end, and 6% think the short - end will be weak and the long - end will be strong. Investors' expectations for the bond market are divided, and there is no obvious trend [24]. 3.7 Bond Market Operation Suggestions - 31% of investors think they should hold cash and wait for the market to correct to the expected level before increasing positions. 29% of investors think it's time to start increasing positions. 16% of investors think they should reduce the duration to control risks. 10% of investors think they should appropriately reduce positions, and about 15% of investors think they should keep their positions basically stable. Most investors' actual operations in October are relatively neutral, and the proportion of those who think it's time to start increasing positions has significantly increased [27]. 3.8 Preferred Bond Types in October - Compared with the August survey results, investors' preference for long - term interest - rate bonds, medium - short - term interest - rate bonds, and high - grade urban investment bonds has increased, while their preference for convertible bonds and low - grade urban investment bonds has significantly decreased. Looking forward to October, investors unanimously expect to maintain their positions in medium - short - term interest - rate bonds and increase their preference for long - term interest - rate bonds. Their preference for local government bonds, inter - bank certificates of deposit, and secondary capital bonds has slightly decreased [29]. 3.9 Main Logic of Bond Market Pricing in October - Monetary policy, the funding situation, and the performance of the equity market have become the core concerns of bond investors. Investors' attention to the game of institutional behavior has significantly increased. Their attention to fundamental data such as real estate and PMI remains basically the same, and their attention to the disturbance of US tariff policies has significantly decreased [32].
流动性跟踪周报-20250929
HTSC· 2025-09-29 09:23
证券研究报告 固收 流动性跟踪周报(2025.9.22-9.26) 2025 年 9 月 29 日│中国内地 流动性周报 SAC No. S0570518110002 SFC No. AMB145 华泰研究 张继强 研究员 zhangjiqiang@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 吴宇航* 研究员 SAC No. S0570521090004 wuyuhang@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 仇文竹* 研究员 SAC No. S0570521050002 qiuwenzhu@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 SAC No. S0570525070010 ouyanglin@htsc.com 欧阳琳* 研究员 +(86) 10 6321 1166 存单利率和 IRS 收益率上行 上周存单合计到期 9692.1 亿元,发行 7918.7 亿元,净融资规模-1773.4 亿 元。截至上周最后一个交易日,存单到期收益率(1 年期 AAA)为 1.69%, 较前一周上行。本周存单单周到期规模在 1688.4 亿元左右,到期压力较前 一周减小。利率互换 ...
央行维持呵护投放,跨季窗口下资金利率跳升的概率不大
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-09-29 09:06
Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 288.6 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous rate, resulting in a net injection of 48.1 billion yuan after 240.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured on the same day [1] - In the previous week, the PBOC's net injection in the open market was 640.6 billion yuan, with a net injection of 300 billion yuan through Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) [1] - The liquidity situation shifted from loose to tight, with overnight funding rates rising from 1.46% to 1.52% and 7-day funding rates increasing significantly from 1.52% to 1.80% [1] Group 2 - The upcoming week will see a decrease in the scale of reverse repos maturing to 516.6 billion yuan, while government bond net payments will rise to 192.7 billion yuan, primarily concentrated on Monday [2] - Despite the approaching quarter-end, the current pace of institutions in crossing the quarter is relatively fast, and the limited scale of government bond payments and reverse repos maturing is expected to result in stable liquidity [2] - The liquidity is likely to return to a loose state after the "Double Festival" holiday, supported by high fiscal spending levels at the end of the month [2] Group 3 - The PBOC's monetary policy committee meeting indicated a shift from "implementing a moderately loose monetary policy" to "implementing detailed moderately loose monetary policy," emphasizing the execution of monetary policy measures [3] - The focus remains on implementing existing policies without mentioning rate cuts, indicating a continued emphasis on supporting consumption and small and micro enterprises [3] - The monetary policy attitude is still "moderately loose," with expectations for potential fiscal stimulus in the fourth quarter due to weak demand [3] Group 4 - Guotai Junan Securities anticipates that the PBOC will enhance liquidity in the interbank market through measures such as reserve requirement ratio cuts or increasing the volume of monetary policy tools [4] - Following the capital increase of four major state-owned banks, other types of banks are also expected to prioritize capital replenishment [4]
如何应对跨节?
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-09-28 10:07
近期市场波动较大,当前临近长假,在较大不确定性情况下,市场关注如何应对跨 节。 从季节性来看,国庆前后长债并不存在明显的季节性,而资金在节后则往往会季 节性宽松。从过去 4 年经验来看,国庆节后利率上升压力不大,国庆后首周 10 年 国债平均下行在 0.9bp,而整个 10 月相对于 9 月底,利率平均下行 0.2bp,其中 2022 年和 2024 年长债利率在 10 月均有所回落。而从资金状况来看,节后资金首 周或有季节性回落,往年经验来看,10 月资金也未有明显收紧。结合当前融资需 求不足,且央行对流动性保持呵护的情况,整体资金预计将继续保持宽松,R007 有望继续保持 1.4%-1.5%附近运行。 虽然说往年季节性如此,但每一年都有自己的特殊情况,因而也不好完全照搬。 从目前情况来看,宽松的资金面和偏弱的基本面依然是债市中期的安全保障。近 几个月融资需求偏弱,信贷保持同比少增,并且社融增速放缓。结合后续相对有限 的资产统计,即使考虑到 4 季度可能提前发行再融资债,如果假定提前增发 1 万 亿,那么政府债券供给也较去年少 0.7 万亿左右,因而预计资金将保持持续宽松, 资产荒有望加剧。同时,近期基本面 ...
国债期货周报:政策预期反复与资金面波动交织,期债震荡走跌-20250928
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-28 09:42
国债期货周报 | 2025-09-28 政策预期反复与资金面波动交织,期债震荡走跌 市场分析 宏观面:(1)宏观政策:2025年8月1日,财政部与税务总局发布公告称,自2025年8月8日起,对在该日及以后新 发行的国债、地方政府债券和金融债券的利息收入将恢复征收增值税。此前已发行的上述债券(包括8月8日后续 发行的部分)仍享受免征增值税政策,直至到期;关税方面,中美发布斯德哥尔摩经贸会谈联合声明,自2025年8 月12日起再次暂停实施24%的关税90天;国务院第九次全体会议强调,采取有力措施巩固房地产市场止跌回稳态势, 培育壮大服务消费,加力扩大有效投资;9月10日,财政部长明确表示,"持续发力、适时加力实施更加积极有为 的宏观政策";发改委也表示"不断释放内需潜力" 和 "推进重点行业产能治理"。(2)通胀:8月CPI同比下降0.4%。 资金面:(3)财政:8月末,M2同比增长8.8%,M1同比回升至6%,剪刀差连续收窄,显示资金活性增强,企业经 营活力改善。前八个月人民币贷款增加13.46万亿元,社融增量累计26.56万亿元,政府债券融资占比高企,反映企 业中长期融资需求仍偏弱。存款同比增长8.6%,信贷 ...