【笔记20251124— 债农日渐神经衰弱（-股市微涨+央行增量续作MLF+资金面均衡偏松=涨跌互现)】 资金面均衡偏松，长债收益率涨跌不一。 央行公开市场开展3387亿元7天期逆回购操作与2000亿元国库现金定存招投标，今日有2830亿元逆回购到期，合计净投放2557元。此外，央行将于明日以 固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展10000亿元MLF操作，期限为1年期。本月MLF到期9000亿元。 不要去纠结于日内行情的波动，或者一两天行情的波动， 时间空间越小，市场的随机性越强，混沌状态越大，参考意义越小 。 ——笔记哥《交易》 今天看到一个魔幻现实：马斯克曾领导的政府效率部提前8个月解散。这证明：你能用第一性原理把火箭送上天，但无法用同样的方法运行政府。在政治 的舞台上，最高效的部门，往往也是最早领盒饭的那个。 资金面均衡偏松，资金利率平稳，DR001在1.32%附近，DR007在1.47%附近。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025. 11. 24) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 资金面先紧后松，存单利率下行受阻 ——流动性和机构行为周度观察 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 11 月 17 日-11 月 21 日，央行净 7 天逆回购净投放资金，国库现金定存到期 1200 亿 元。2025 年 11 月 17 日-11 月 23 日，政府债净缴款规模较前一周小幅下降，同业存单到期收 益率整体平稳，银行间债券市场杠杆率均值基本平稳。2025 年 11 月 24 日-11 月 30 日，政府 债预计净缴款 2338 亿元，同业存单到期规模约为 8020 亿元。2025 年 11 月 21 日，测算中长 期、短期利率风格纯债基久期中位数周度环比分别下降 0.60 年、下降 0.20 年。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 马月 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490525080001 SFC：BVN394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 基于测算结果，中长期纯、短期利率纯债基久期均边际下行。2025 年 ...

华西宏观 （四）票据市场：利率转为上行，大行转为净卖出 截止11月21日，1M票据较前一周上行28bp至1.08%，3M上行18bp至0.58%，6M上行14bp至0.77%。在此 期间（11月17-20日），大行净卖出235亿元，11月累计净买入774亿元（去年同期累计净买入2058亿 元）。 （五）政府债：11月24-28日，净缴款2237亿元 （一）概况：税期，资金面起波澜 11月17-21日，资金面波澜再起，周初（17-18日）受税期、政府债缴款及北交所打新等因素影响，资金 面显著承压，R001迅速攀升至1.57%，R007也升至1.53%。周三起，随着央行持续加力投放，且税期走 款即将结束，资金利率迎来下行。直至周五，资金利率才回归合理定价，R001回落至1.39%，低于 OMO利率，R007也逐步下行至1.50%水平。 （二）展望：跨月周，资金面风浪依旧未平 下周（11月24-28日）进入跨月周，资金面风浪依旧未平。周一（24日）起，拆借7天利率可跨月。参考 今年二季度以来季中月（5月、8月）资金利率在跨月周的变化情况，R007最大上行幅度分别为11、 8bp，而R001多在跨月当日显著上行，幅度 ...

证券研究报告 | 固定收益点评 gszqdatemark 2025 11 22 年 月 日 固定收益定期 存单大幅净偿还——流动性和机构行为跟踪 资金整体平稳，价格小幅波动。或由于央行持续呵护，本周资金价格小 幅下降，本周 R001 收于 1.39%（前值 1.43%），DR001 收于 1.32% （前值 1.37%）。R007 收于 1.50%（（前值 1.49%），DR007 收于 1.44% （前值 1.47%）。DR007 与 7 天 OMO 利差收于 4.08bp。6M 国股银票 转贴利率收于 0.77%（前值 0.63%）。 OMO 净投放平稳，国库现金定存将加量续作。本周央行逆回购投放 16760 亿元，逆回购到期 11220 亿元，逆回购净投放 5540 亿元，与 上周净投放量（6262 亿元）相近。11 月 19 日央行公告，11 月 24 日 将开展 1200 亿元 1M 与 800 亿 21D 国库现金定存，加量续作 800 亿 元。 债市缺乏交易主线，债券收益率窄幅震荡。本周受海外信息影响，股 市大幅回调，但债市交易空间仍然有限，债市收益率整体呈现窄幅震 荡趋势。1 年国债收益率下行 ...

买断式逆回购中标利率反映了什么？ —— 流动性与机构行为周度跟踪 251123 [Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 11 月 23 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 673 歌声ue 证券研究报告 债券研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 | ] [Table_A 李一爽 uthor固定收益首席分析师 | | --- | | 执业编号：S1500520050002 | | 联系电话：+86 18817583889 | | 邮 箱： liyishuang@cindasc.com | 3买断式逆回购中标利率反映了什么？ 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 3 ➢ 我们假设 12 月关键期限国债、超长期一般国债、贴现国债平均发行规模分 别为 1240 亿元、560 亿元、470 亿元，并对 7500 亿特别国债到期进行等额 续作，则我们预计 12 月国债发行规模约 1.93 万亿，净融资规模约 4400 亿 元。假设地方债新增额度在年内全部发行完毕，则预计 12 月发行新增一般 债 68 ...

新华财经北京11月21日电 人民银行21日开展3750亿元7天期逆回购操作，鉴于当日有2128亿元7天期逆回购到期，公开市场实现净投放1622亿元。本周人 民银行共开展16760亿元7天期逆回购操作和8000亿元买断式逆回购操作，因当周有11220亿元7天期逆回购到期，公开市场合计实现净投放5540亿元。 上海银行间同业拆放利率（Shibor）短期品种全线下行。具体来看，隔夜Shibor下跌4.0BP，报1.3200%；7天Shibor下跌4.30BP，报1.4170%；14天Shibor 下跌2.4BP，报1.5220%。 上海银行间同业拆放利率（11月21日） | | 期限 | Shibor(%) | 涨跌(BP) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | O/N | 1.3200 | 4.40 | | 中 | 1W | 1.4170 | 4.30 | | 4 | 2W | 1.5220 | 2.40 | | 中 | 1M | 1.5190 | 0.10 | | 1 | 3M | 1.5780 | 0.10 | | 1 | 6M | 1.6200 | 0.00 | | | 9M | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestic stock index futures show resilience with volatility decreasing. After Q3 reports, A - shares are in repricing adjustment. Short - term fluctuations are common, and it's recommended to wait and see. Consider a bull spread of put options in case of a deep daily decline [2]. - Treasury bond futures had a differentiated performance yesterday. With limited driving forces, the bond market may continue to fluctuate narrowly. A range - trading strategy is recommended [2]. - Gold prices are oscillating between $4000 - $4200 due to mixed US non - farm data and cautious Fed officials. A double - selling strategy for out - of - the - money gold options can be considered. Silver follows gold's fluctuations, and short - term observation or light - position trading is advised [2]. - The EC (European line) container shipping index futures are in short - term decline. It's recommended to close short positions [2]. - Steel prices are expected to stabilize with improved apparent demand. Iron ore is oscillating, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended. For coking coal and coke, a bearish view is taken with specified price ranges [2]. - Copper prices are oscillating weakly as the probability of interest rate cuts decreases. For various non - ferrous metals, different trading strategies are recommended according to their price trends [2]. - In the new energy and chemical sectors, prices of many products such as polysilicon and PTA are oscillating. Different trading strategies are proposed based on their supply - demand situations [2]. - In the agricultural products sector, prices of products like soybean meal, palm oil, and sugar are showing different trends, and corresponding trading strategies are recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Domestic stock index futures are in a state of repricing adjustment. Short - term fluctuations are normal, and it's recommended to wait and see. A bull spread of put options can be considered in case of a deep daily decline [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market may continue to fluctuate narrowly. A range - trading strategy is recommended [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is in the $4000 - $4200 range, and a double - selling strategy for out - of - the - money options can be used. Silver follows gold, and short - term observation or light - position trading is advised [2]. Black - **Steel**: Steel prices are expected to stabilize with improved apparent demand [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore is oscillating. A wait - and - see approach is recommended with a reference range of 750 - 810 [2]. - **Coking Coal**: A bearish view is taken with a price range of 1050 - 1200 [2]. - **Coke**: A bearish view is taken with a price range of 1550 - 1700 [2]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Copper prices are oscillating weakly. The main reference range is 85000 - 86500 [2]. - **Other Non - Ferrous Metals**: Different trading strategies are recommended for various non - ferrous metals according to their price trends [2]. Energy and Chemical - **New Energy and Chemical Products**: Prices of products like polysilicon, PTA, and short - fiber are oscillating, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed based on supply - demand [2]. - **Other Chemical Products**: For products like LLDPE, PP, and PVC, different trading strategies are recommended according to their price trends and supply - demand situations [2]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Domestic soybean meal supply is abundant, and attention should be paid to the support around 3000 [2]. - **Palm Oil**: Palm oil prices are continuing to decline, and the main contract may reach 8900 in the short term [2]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: Different trading strategies are recommended for products like sugar, cotton, and eggs according to their price trends [2].

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank announced a 300 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation on November 20, with a fixed interest rate of 1.40% and a total bid amount of 300 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 110 billion yuan for the day after accounting for 190 billion yuan in reverse repos maturing [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The interbank market saw a loosening of funding conditions, with major term repurchase rates declining. The overnight repurchase rate for deposit-taking institutions fell over 5 basis points to around 1.36%, while the overnight quotes on the anonymous X-repo system dropped significantly to 1.35% [3] - There is abundant overnight funding supply, with non-bank institutions borrowing overnight funds at around 1.50%. The end of tax period impacts has led to a recovery in funding conditions, with expectations for further declines in short-term rates [3] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is at 1.64%, showing a slight increase from the previous day [7] Group 4: Government Bond Futures - The closing prices for government bond futures showed a decline in the 30-year main contract by 0.21%, while the 10-year and 5-year main contracts increased by 0.06% each, and the 2-year contract remained unchanged [11] Group 5: LPR and Regulatory Developments - The November LPR remained stable at 3% for the one-year rate and 3.5% for the five-year and above categories. The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized the need for stronger institutional frameworks and risk prevention measures during a recent meeting [12] Group 6: Global Macro Developments - Japan plans to introduce a new spending plan amounting to 17.7 trillion yen, necessitating the issuance of more bonds to raise funds. The Japanese Finance Minister highlighted the challenges of balancing inflation, bond yields, and a weak yen [14] Group 7: Bond Market Events - The Export-Import Bank plans to auction up to 2 billion yuan of 3-year floating rate bonds on November 21. The bond market's "technology board" remains active, with a cumulative issuance scale of nearly 1.5 trillion yuan this year [16]

资金面有所缓和；债市整体走弱 【内容摘要】11 月 19 日，资金面有所缓和，主要回购利率均下行；债市整体走弱；转债市场 有所反弹，转债个券多数上涨；各期限美债收益率普遍上行，主要欧洲经济体 10 年期国债收 益率走势分化。 【财政部在卢森堡成功发行 40 亿欧元主权债券，认购总额超千亿】11 月 18 日，财政部代表 中央政府在卢森堡成功发行 40 亿欧元主权债券。其中，4 年期 20 亿欧元，发行利率 2.401%； 7 年期 20 亿欧元，发行利率 2.702%。这是我国首次在卢森堡发行欧元主权债券，国际投资者 认购踊跃，总认购金额 1001 亿欧元，是发行金额的 25 倍。此次欧元主权债券投资者中，欧 洲、亚洲、中东、美国离岸投资者分别占比 51%、35%、8%、6%，主权类、基金资管、银行和保 险、交易商等类型投资者分别占比 26%、39%、32%、3%。此次发行的债券全部托管在香港金管 局债务工具中央结算系统（CMU），随后将在香港联合交易所和卢森堡证券交易所上市。 【财政部：提前下达 2026 年部分中央财政城镇保障性安居工程补助资金预算】11 月 19 日， 财政部发布通知，提前下达 2026 ...

市场分析 国债期货日报 | 2025-11-20 流动性改善，国债期货全线收跌 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：10月27日，央行时隔近十个月宣布重启公开市场国债买卖操作，向市场释放了明确的稳 预期信号;10月30日，中美经贸团队达成三方面成果共识，一是中方将与美方妥善解决TikTok相关问题;二是美方将 暂停实施其对华海事、物流和造船业301调查措施一年，同时将暂停实施其9月29日公布的出口管制50%穿透性规则 一年;三是美方取消10%"芬太尼关税"，对中国商品24%对等关税将继续暂停一年。国务院关税税则委员会宣布在一 年内继续暂停实施24%的对美加征关税税率，保留10%的对美加征关税税率。（2）通胀:10月CPI同比上升0.2%。 资金面：（3）财政：2025 年 1–10 月财政运行呈现"收入温和修复、支出节奏回落、基金收缩与专项债放缓并存" 的特征。一般公共预算收入同比增长 0.8%，税收连续八个月改善，增值税、个税和企业所得税均保持修复态势， 但非税收入拖累整体增速，收入完成进度略低于往年均值；一般公共预算支出同比仅增 2%，连续三个月放缓，主 要受上半年财政前置发力后劲不足以及基建类支出走弱影响，社保与教 ...