Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shenzhen International [2][19] Core Views - The company reported a half-year revenue of HKD 6.67 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 490 million, a decrease of 24.9% year-on-year. The decline in profit is primarily due to the absence of tax income from the REITs in the first half of 2025, which was recorded in the first half of 2024 [9] - The logistics park transformation project is expected to provide significant profit elasticity, with estimated after-tax income contributions exceeding HKD 156.58 billion over the project's lifespan [9] - The company has optimized its debt structure, reducing financial costs, and continues to focus on enhancing operational efficiency and risk management [9] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for Shenzhen International are as follows: - 2023: HKD 20,524 million - 2024: HKD 15,571 million - 2025E: HKD 16,007 million - 2026E: HKD 16,488 million - 2027E: HKD 17,159 million - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow from HKD 1,902 million in 2023 to HKD 3,925 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [6][10] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from HKD 0.80 in 2023 to HKD 1.60 in 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [6][10]

Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains the profit forecast for Shenzhen International (00152) for 2025 and 2026, with a target price of HKD 9.38, indicating a potential upside of 23.8% from the current stock price [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's 1H25 performance met expectations, with revenue of HKD 6.67 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, and a net profit of HKD 490 million, down 24.9% year-on-year, primarily due to a one-time tax benefit from the previous year [2] - Revenue from the toll road and environmental protection business remained stable, with toll road revenue at HKD 2.64 billion, essentially flat year-on-year, while the environmental protection business saw a 2% increase to HKD 810 million, achieving a net profit of HKD 95.32 million [3] Group 2: Business Segments - The logistics and port business faced challenges, with logistics park revenue up 5% to HKD 790 million, but net profit down 90% to HKD 55.91 million due to high base effects from the previous year [3] - Port revenue decreased by 13% to HKD 1.39 billion, with net profit down 72% to HKD 1.204 million, attributed to slowing market demand and increased competition [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The logistics park's closed-loop model is expected to continue contributing to performance, with projected tax-adjusted gains of HKD 2.367 billion from the first phase of the South China logistics park [4] - The company aims to enhance cash flow through public REIT expansions and private fund issuances, leveraging asset appreciation [4] Group 4: Dividend Policy - The company has a stable dividend policy, with an average payout ratio of 51% over the past five years, leading to an attractive dividend yield of 9.7% for 2025/2026 based on profit forecasts [5]