Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains the profit forecast for Shenzhen International (00152) for 2025 and 2026, with a target price of HKD 9.38, indicating a potential upside of 23.8% from the current stock price [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's 1H25 performance met expectations, with revenue of HKD 6.67 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, and a net profit of HKD 490 million, down 24.9% year-on-year, primarily due to a one-time tax benefit from the previous year [2] - Revenue from the toll road and environmental protection business remained stable, with toll road revenue at HKD 2.64 billion, essentially flat year-on-year, while the environmental protection business saw a 2% increase to HKD 810 million, achieving a net profit of HKD 95.32 million [3] Group 2: Business Segments - The logistics and port business faced challenges, with logistics park revenue up 5% to HKD 790 million, but net profit down 90% to HKD 55.91 million due to high base effects from the previous year [3] - Port revenue decreased by 13% to HKD 1.39 billion, with net profit down 72% to HKD 1.204 million, attributed to slowing market demand and increased competition [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The logistics park's closed-loop model is expected to continue contributing to performance, with projected tax-adjusted gains of HKD 2.367 billion from the first phase of the South China logistics park [4] - The company aims to enhance cash flow through public REIT expansions and private fund issuances, leveraging asset appreciation [4] Group 4: Dividend Policy - The company has a stable dividend policy, with an average payout ratio of 51% over the past five years, leading to an attractive dividend yield of 9.7% for 2025/2026 based on profit forecasts [5]

Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains the profit forecast for Shenzhen International (00152) for 2025 and 2026, with a target price of HKD 9.38, indicating a potential upside of 23.8% from the current stock price [1] Financial Performance - The company reported 1H25 revenue of HKD 6.67 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 490 million, down 24.9%, aligning with CICC's expectations [2] - The decline in net profit is primarily due to a one-time tax benefit of approximately HKD 587 million recognized in the same period last year [2] Business Segment Analysis - **Toll Roads and Environmental Protection**: - 1H25 toll road revenue was HKD 2.64 billion, roughly flat year-on-year, but up 4% after excluding one-off impacts, driven by revenue growth from Jiangjiang Expressway and Jihe Expressway [3] - Environmental protection revenue increased by 2% to HKD 810 million, achieving a net profit of HKD 95.32 million [3] - **Logistics and Port Operations**: - Logistics park revenue rose by 5% to HKD 790 million, but net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 90% to HKD 55.91 million due to high base effects from last year's public REIT issuance [3] - Logistics services revenue surged by 47% to HKD 200 million, with a loss of HKD 47.98 million attributed to structural adjustments and rising operational costs [3] - Port revenue decreased by 13% to HKD 1.39 billion, with net profit down 72% to HKD 1.204 million, impacted by slowing market demand and increased depreciation costs from the Jingjiang Port project [3] - Logistics park transformation generated revenue of HKD 68.74 million, with a profit of HKD 200 million, benefiting from property sales in the Qianhai residential project [3] Future Outlook - The logistics park's large closed-loop model is expected to continue contributing to performance, with anticipated tax-adjusted gains of HKD 2.367 billion from the first phase of the South China logistics park [4] - The transformation of the South China logistics park is projected to gradually release land appreciation and development gains over the next 6-8 years [4] - The company plans to continue promoting public REIT expansions and private fund issuances to achieve cash flow and value appreciation [4] Dividend Policy - The company maintains a stable dividend policy, with an average payout ratio of 51% over the past five years, leading to an attractive dividend yield of 9.7% for 2025/2026 based on a 50% payout assumption [5]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Shenzhen International [1][6] Core Views - Shenzhen International is a state-owned enterprise with high-quality resources, focusing on logistics, toll roads, ports, and environmental protection, aiming to become a leading urban infrastructure developer and operator in China [5][17] - The company has developed a "big closed-loop" business model for logistics park transformation and a "small closed-loop" model for asset securitization, enhancing its earnings resilience [5][6] - The transformation of the South China logistics park is expected to contribute over HKD 15.658 billion in after-tax revenue [5] - The company maintains a stable dividend policy with a payout ratio of around 50% of net profit, making it an attractive high-dividend stock [5][37] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for Shenzhen International are as follows: - 2023: HKD 20.524 billion - 2024: HKD 15.571 billion - 2025E: HKD 16.007 billion - 2026E: HKD 16.488 billion - 2027E: HKD 17.159 billion - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be: - 2023: HKD 1.902 billion - 2024: HKD 2.872 billion - 2025E: HKD 3.081 billion - 2026E: HKD 3.430 billion - 2027E: HKD 3.925 billion [4][6] Business Model and Strategy - The company operates in four main sectors: toll roads and environmental protection, logistics, port services, and other investments [5][28] - The "big closed-loop" model focuses on land value appreciation through transformation and redevelopment, while the "small closed-loop" model involves asset securitization through public REITs or private funds [5][28] - The logistics and port business is the core of the company, with toll roads and environmental protection providing a stable revenue base [5][28] Market Position and Competitive Advantage - Shenzhen International is the only state-owned enterprise in Shenzhen that is publicly listed and focuses on modern logistics, toll roads, ports, and environmental protection [5][17] - The company has a strong presence in key economic regions such as the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, Yangtze River Delta, and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Economic Zone [5][17] - The company has a competitive edge due to its strategic location and experience in land development and asset management [5][9] Dividend Policy - The company has maintained a consistent dividend payout ratio of around 50% since 2017, with total dividends of HKD 15.593 billion from 2015 to 2024 [5][37] - Future dividends are expected to remain stable, supported by the logistics park transformation and asset securitization initiatives [5][37]