Industry Overview - The thick plate industry is characterized by its high strength, excellent plasticity, and weather resistance, making it irreplaceable in shipbuilding, energy equipment, and bridge engineering [1][7] - In 2023, China's thick plate production reached 11.18 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.81%, but it maintained a steady growth trend amidst fluctuations [1][7] - The short-term decline is attributed to slow global economic recovery, increased international trade friction, and deep adjustments in domestic industrial structure [1][7] - The high-end trend in the industry is emerging, with the production of high-value-added products like 15CrMoR for nuclear power and chromium-molybdenum steel increasing against the trend [1][7] Industry Chain - The upstream of the thick plate industry includes raw materials such as iron ore, coal, scrap steel, and electricity, as well as production equipment like blast furnaces and rolling mills [3] - The midstream involves the production and manufacturing of thick plates, while the downstream includes industries with high material performance requirements such as construction, aerospace, marine engineering, and energy [3] Market Trends - The thick plate market is expected to experience a "narrow fluctuation and downward shift" in the first half of 2025, with an average price of 4,364 yuan per ton in June 2025, reflecting a 0.95% increase month-on-month but an 8.18% decrease year-on-year [9] - The market dynamics have shifted significantly, with prices remaining stable in the first quarter due to concentrated infrastructure project releases and export orders, but showing a gradual decline in the second quarter due to weakened global economic recovery [9] Key Enterprises - Major companies in the thick plate industry include Baosteel, Shagang, Ansteel, and Hesteel, with Baosteel holding a significant market share due to its advanced production technology [11][13] - Ansteel is recognized for its high-quality thick plates used in pressure vessels and bridges, while Hesteel's products are favored in mining and engineering machinery [11][13] Development Trends - The industry will focus on technological innovation and product upgrades, with increased R&D investment to develop high-strength, high-toughness, and high-corrosion-resistant thick plates [17] - Environmental policies are driving the industry towards green and low-carbon development, with companies investing in clean energy and energy-saving technologies [18][19] - The market demand for thick plates is expected to grow due to infrastructure construction, manufacturing transformation, and developments in the renewable energy sector [20]

▍ 2 0 2 5年Q1有望成为钢铁行业长期业绩拐点。 根据国家统计局数据，2 0 2 5年Q1全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额1 5 0 9 3 . 6亿元，同比增长0 . 8%。其中黑色金属冶炼和压 延加工业利润总额7 5 . 1亿元，成为继2 0 2 2年Q1后首个盈利的一季度。今年一季度钢铁企业效益逐步改善，重点钢铁企业营业 成本同比下降9 . 6%，钢材产品平均销售利润率同比上升0 . 6 7个百分点。此外，钢材产品的结构持续优化，一季度，建筑用钢 筋产量4 8 11万吨，下降了2 . 9%；用于制造领域的特厚板、中板、涂层板、镀层板产量同比增长都超过了1 0%，合计产量3 8 8 4 万吨；粗钢的产量基本保持稳定，全国粗钢产量2 . 5 9亿吨，同比微增0 . 6%。 我们预计 2 0 2 5年是中国钢铁行业的拐点年份。2 0 2 5年Q1有望成为钢铁行业长期业绩拐点。随着行业改革的深入，产能产量的 持续性削减将势在必行。供应端有望带来产量超预期收缩。同时随着钢铁行业"推进整合重组，推动落后低效产能退出"的持续 推进，预计产业链利润将持续进行再分配，而钢铁行业将在再分配中受益。我们认为当前在估值底 ...