证券研究报告 钢铁周报：预期先行，钢铁继续 行业评级：看好 2026 年 03 月 01 日 | 分析师 | 沈皓俊 | 研究助理 | 张轩 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 邮箱 | shenhaojun@stocke.com.cn | 邮箱 | zhangxuan01@stocke.com.cn | | 证书编号 | S1230523080011 | | | 价格表现 | | | | | 价格 | | | | 周涨跌幅 | | | 年初至今涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 板块 | 上证指数 | | 4 , | 163 | 2 | 0% | . | 4 9% . | | | 沪深300 | | 4 , | 711 | 1 | 1% | . | 1 7% . | | | SW钢铁指数 | | 3 , | 134 | 12 | 3% | . | 17 8% . | | | | SW普钢指数 | 2 , | 917 | 12 | 3% | . | 15 9% . | | | | SW特钢指数 ...

晋江市委常委、市政府副市长吴靖宇介绍，作为品类丰富、规格齐全、产业链完善的重要陶瓷产区，晋 江建陶年产量近6亿平方米，位居全国第二，地铺石、仿古砖、木纹砖、薄板、中板等细分品类产量稳 居全国前列，全国每10块地铺石、木纹砖中就有7块产自晋江，在全国具有举足轻重的地位。 当天，晋江发布支持建材产业高质量发展系列政策措施，进一步推动建陶产业深耕国内市场、拓展海外 版图，实现内外贸高质量协同发展。 会上还发布了"时尚福砖"区域品牌，上线云筑网"时尚福砖·磁灶陶瓷"专区，并举行"时尚福砖·磁灶陶 瓷"经销联盟企业授牌仪式、建陶产业内外贸产销对接签约仪式等。 中国陶瓷工业协会常务副理事长吴越申认为，此次晋江推出"时尚福砖"区域品牌，正是把握行业趋势、 整合产区资源的关键之举，以"建陶行业潮流引领者"为定位，将千年工艺底蕴与现代时尚设计、绿色功 能创新深度融合，发挥晋江建陶定制灵活、工艺创新的核心优势，精准对接市场升级需求，为全国建陶 产业区域品牌建设提供了宝贵的晋江思路。 经过数十年发展，晋江现代陶瓷业已成为国内高端仿古砖主要产地、建筑陶瓷主要集散地和一站式直采 基地，具有"产业集聚，品类齐全，质优价廉、生产灵活，交通 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The international macroeconomic uncertainty is increasing, and the industry is experiencing a "strong supply and weak demand" situation, leading to a decline in futures steel prices [3][16] - The market is characterized by weak trading activity ahead of the Spring Festival, with terminal demand contracting while steel production remains unchanged, resulting in continuous inventory accumulation [3][16] Group 2: Current Steel Prices - Rebar prices are expected to decrease slightly due to increased production and declining terminal demand, leading to accelerated inventory accumulation [3][16] - Hot-rolled coil inventory has risen to 2.1083 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 2.74%, indicating supply pressure, while demand remains weak [4][16] - Medium and heavy plate inventory has increased by 3.28% to 730,000 tons, maintaining a high level, with market transactions remaining sluggish [5][17] - Wire rod prices are expected to decline as terminal demand approaches a standstill with the upcoming holiday [6][17] - Section steel prices are under pressure due to weak demand from construction and manufacturing activities, leading to a lack of upward momentum [7][18] - Pipe prices are expected to remain stable, although both supply and demand are weakening as manufacturers begin holiday shutdowns [8][19] Group 3: Raw Material Market - Steel billet prices are expected to decline slightly, with market activity decreasing and a lack of sustained driving force for finished products [9][20] - Iron ore shipments increased to 30.946 million tons last week, with rising supply from Australia and Brazil, leading to price pressure [10][21] - Coking coal prices are expected to weaken due to slow downstream replenishment and soft demand [11][22] - Scrap steel prices are expected to fluctuate as market sentiment remains cautious amid low demand and thin profit margins for steel mills [12][23] Group 4: Overall Sentiment - The market is experiencing heightened risk aversion due to the sharp decline in precious metals and non-ferrous sectors, which is affecting the black metal market [13][24] - The overall market sentiment remains weak as supply and demand contradictions become more pronounced ahead of the Spring Festival, with traders adopting a wait-and-see approach [13][24]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the steel industry [1] Core Insights - The report indicates that rebar production is expected to continue declining, with stable short-term production and accumulating inventory [1] - Hot-rolled coil demand and production have slightly increased, while inventory continues to decrease, indicating a gradual easing of pressure [1] - The report emphasizes the need to monitor changes in demand dynamics [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Weekly Production and Inventory - Rebar weekly production: 199.83 million tons, up 0.28% from the previous week - Rebar factory inventory: 149.13 million tons, up 0.15% - Rebar social inventory: 326.4 million tons, up 23.28% - Total rebar inventory (factory + social): 475.53 million tons, up 23.43% - Weekly consumption (excluding imports and exports): 176.4 million tons, down 9.12% [1] Other Steel Products - Wire rod weekly production: 76.41 million tons, up 1.28% - Wire rod factory inventory: 44.14 million tons, up 0.99% - Hot-rolled coil weekly production: 309.21 million tons, up 3.80% - Hot-rolled coil factory inventory: 77.25 million tons, up 0.61% - Cold-rolled coil weekly production: 88.42 million tons, unchanged - Cold-rolled coil factory inventory: 35.16 million tons, down 2.39% - Medium plate weekly production: 149.30 million tons, down 1.77% - Medium plate factory inventory: 82.1 million tons, up 0.20% [1] Total Production and Inventory - Total weekly production across five major products: 823.17 million tons, up 3.58% - Total factory inventory: 387.78 million tons, down 0.84% - Total social inventory: 890.73 million tons, up 22.27% - Total inventory (factory + social): 1,278.51 million tons, up 21.43% - Total weekly consumption: 801.74 million tons, down 7.78% [1]

Group 1 - The stock price of Sansteel Minmetals has increased by 5.18% to 4.67 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 224 million CNY and a turnover rate of 2.04%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 11.344 billion CNY [1] - Sansteel Minmetals has experienced a continuous increase in stock price for four consecutive days, with a cumulative increase of 5.71% during this period [1] - The company, established on December 26, 2001, and listed on January 26, 2007, specializes in the production and sale of steel smelting, rolling, processing, and pressure products [1] Group 2 - The fund "China Europe Dividend Enjoyment Flexible Allocation Mixed A" (004814) has entered the top ten circulating shareholders of Sansteel Minmetals, holding 42.646 million shares, which accounts for 1.76% of the circulating shares [2] - The fund has generated a floating profit of approximately 9.8086 million CNY today and 10.2351 million CNY during the four-day increase [2] - The fund has a total scale of 9.938 billion CNY, with a year-to-date return of 4.89% and a one-year return of 54.66% [2] Group 3 - The fund "China Europe Jinyuan Flexible Allocation Mixed A" (001146) holds 1.0911 million shares of Sansteel Minmetals, making it the tenth largest holding in the fund [3] - This fund has achieved a floating profit of approximately 251,000 CNY today and 261,900 CNY during the four-day increase [3] - The fund has a total scale of 1.2345 billion CNY, with a year-to-date return of 5.89% and a one-year return of 30.38% [3] Group 4 - The fund managers of "China Europe Jinyuan Flexible Allocation Mixed A" are Hu Tianyang and Li Bo, with respective management tenures of 3 years and 363 days, and 2 years and 76 days [4] - Hu Tianyang manages assets totaling 10.085 billion CNY, with the best fund return of 20.47% and the worst return of -10.59% during his tenure [4] - Li Bo manages assets totaling 8.694 billion CNY, with the best fund return of 52.64% and the worst return of 2.75% during his tenure [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - This week, the apparent demand for rebar has recovered, production has slightly declined, and the inventory accumulation rhythm has slowed down. The demand for hot-rolled coils has improved, production has slightly increased, inventory has continued to decline, but the pressure still needs to be alleviated. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes in off-season demand [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs - **Production Volume**: The total production volume of the five major varieties is 819.21 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 0.62 tons. Among them, the production volume of rebar is 190.3 tons, a decrease of 0.74 tons; wire rod is 73.49 tons, an increase of 0.58 tons; hot-rolled coils are 308.36 tons, an increase of 2.85 tons; cold-rolled coils are 88.67 tons, a decrease of 0.17 tons; medium plates are 158.39 tons, a decrease of 1.90 tons [1] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the five major varieties (factory inventory + social inventory) is 1247.01 tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 6.91 tons. The factory inventory is 380.68 tons, a decrease of 8.07 tons; the social inventory is 866.33 tons, an increase of 1247.01 tons. For different varieties, the inventory changes vary [1] - **Apparent Consumption**: The total apparent consumption of the five major varieties is 826.12 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 1.16 tons. The apparent consumption of rebar is 190.34 tons, an increase of 15.38 tons; wire rod is 71.54 tons, an increase of 5.28 tons; hot-rolled coils are 314.16 tons, an increase of 5.82 tons; cold-rolled coils are 91.93 tons, an increase of 3.08 tons; medium plates are 158.15 tons, a decrease of 0.26 tons [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Views - The report indicates that the equity bottom is continuing to recover, suggesting a positive outlook for the steel industry [1] Price Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index is at 4,120, with a weekly increase of 3.8% and a year-to-date increase of 3.8% [3] - The SW Steel Index is at 2,752, with a weekly increase of 3.5% and a year-to-date increase of 3.5% [3] - The average price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) is 3,280 CNY/ton, with a weekly decrease of 1.2% [3] - Iron ore price index is at 108 USD/ton, with a weekly increase of 6% [3] Inventory - Total social inventory of five major steel products is 864,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 1.7% [5] - Total inventory at steel mills is 389,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 1.9% [5] - Port inventory of iron ore is 16,280,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 2.6% [5] Supply and Demand - The weekly output of five major steel products is projected to be around 750,000 tons [9] - Daily average molten iron production is expected to reach 195,000 tons [9] - The report highlights the recovery in demand for steel products, indicating a positive trend in the market [8][10]

Group 1: Report's Core View - This week, the apparent demand for rebar dropped significantly, production continued to rise slightly, and inventory began to accumulate. The demand for hot-rolled coils declined, production continued to rise slightly, inventory was slowly being depleted, but pressure still needed to be alleviated. Attention should be paid to marginal changes in off-season demand [1] Group 2: Specific Data Rebar - Weekly production: 191.04 tons, a week-on-week increase of 2.82 tons - In-plant inventory: 147.93 tons, a week-on-week increase of 8.56 tons - Social inventory: 290.18 tons, a week-on-week increase of 7.52 tons - Total inventory (plant + social): 438.11 tons, a week-on-week increase of 16.08 tons - Weekly consumption (excluding imports and exports): 174.96 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 25.48 tons [1] Wire Rod - Weekly production: 66.26 tons, a week-on-week increase of 44.09 tons - In-plant inventory: 3.08 tons, a week-on-week increase of 6.65 tons - Social inventory: 72.91 tons, a week-on-week increase of 3.57 tons - Total inventory (plant + social): 89.81 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 13.70 tons [1] Hot-Rolled Coils - Weekly production: 305.51 tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.00 tons - In-plant inventory: 77.32 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 5.00 tons - Social inventory: 290.81 tons, a week-on-week increase of 2.17 tons - Total inventory (plant + social): 368.13 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 2.83 tons - Weekly consumption: 308.34 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 2.43 tons [1] Medium Plate - Weekly production: 160.29 tons, a week-on-week increase of 196.12 tons - In-plant inventory: 158.41 tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.31 tons - Social inventory: 81.3 tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.20 tons - Total inventory (plant + social): 239.71 tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.68 tons - Weekly consumption: 818.59 tons, a week-on-week increase of 3.41 tons [1] Total of Five Varieties - Total production: 865.17 tons, a week-on-week increase of 14.39 tons - Total inventory (plant + social): 1253.92 tons, a week-on-week increase of 21.77 tons - Total consumption: 796.82 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 44.20 tons [1]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the apparent demand for rebar dropped significantly, production continued to rise slightly, and inventories began to accumulate; the demand for hot-rolled coils declined, production continued to rise slightly, inventories were slowly depleted, but the pressure still needed to be alleviated. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes in off-season demand [1] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Production - Rebar weekly production was 191.04 tons, a week-on-week increase of 2.82 tons; wire rod production was 66.26 tons; hot-rolled coil production was 305.51 tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.00 tons; medium plate production was 160.29 tons. The total production of the five major varieties was on an upward trend [1] 3.2 Inventory - Rebar factory inventory was 147.93 tons, a week-on-week increase of 8.56 tons; social inventory was 290.18 tons, a week-on-week increase of 7.52 tons; the total of factory and social inventories was 438.11 tons, a week-on-week increase of 16.08 tons. Hot-rolled coil factory inventory was 77.32 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 5.00 tons; social inventory was 291.17 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 2.83 tons; the total of factory and social inventories was 368.13 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 2.43 tons [1] 3.3 Consumption - Rebar weekly consumption (excluding imports and exports) was 174.96 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 25.48 tons. Hot-rolled coil consumption was on a downward trend, with a week-on-week decrease in consumption [1]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic steel market in December 2025 showed a narrow fluctuation with a significant contraction in supply and resilient demand, leading to continuous inventory reduction. The outlook for January 2026 indicates a continuation of the weak supply-demand balance, with seasonal effects from the Spring Festival putting pressure on demand, while supply may see a slight recovery due to improved profitability in steel mills. Overall, steel prices are expected to remain stable within a limited range due to cost support [2][19]. Supply and Production - Both blast furnace and electric arc furnace operating rates have declined. As of December 26, the operating rate for independent electric arc furnaces was 43.64%, down 3.64 percentage points month-on-month and down 7.27 percentage points year-on-year. The operating rate for blast furnaces was 74.76%, down 1.92 percentage points month-on-month but up 1.6 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - Steel production has decreased, with weekly total production of construction steel at 2.9269 million tons, down 1.57 million tons month-on-month and down 5.99% year-on-year. Hot-rolled coil production was 3.5509 million tons, down 0.53% month-on-month and down 2.82% year-on-year [5]. - The reduction in production and maintenance efforts in December were significantly higher than in November, with expectations for a slight easing in maintenance efforts in January [7]. Demand and Consumption - Steel consumption in December showed a slight month-on-month decline, with varied performance across different products. Hot-rolled demand increased by 0.6%, while other products like medium plates and construction materials saw declines of 0.6% and 1.1%, respectively. January's expected procurement volume remains under pressure, with anticipated declines across all product categories [9][11]. - In the construction sector, steel usage in the infrastructure industry decreased by 0.8% in December, with a further expected decline of 1.2% in January. The real estate sector also saw a decrease of 1.2% in December, with a projected decline of 2% in January [11][14]. Inventory and Pricing - Total steel inventory continued to decline in December, although it remains higher than the same period in 2024. As of December 26, the total inventory of construction steel was 5.8754 million tons, down 15.24% month-on-month but up 30.52% year-on-year. Hot-rolled coil inventory was 3.4989 million tons, down 2.85% month-on-month and up 10.87% year-on-year [15][20]. - Profitability for blast furnace steel mills improved in December, with production profits rising to 49 yuan per ton, while electric arc furnace mills continued to incur losses, albeit at a reduced rate [17][18]. Market Outlook - The steel market is expected to maintain a weak supply-demand balance in January 2026, influenced by seasonal demand pressures and uncertainties in export policies. While some steel mills may ease maintenance efforts due to improved profitability, overall production is expected to see a slight recovery. Cost factors are anticipated to provide support, limiting the downward price movement and leading to a likely continuation of range-bound trading [21][22].