证券研究报告 钢铁周报：权益底部继续修复 | 分析师 | 沈皓俊 | 研究助理 | 张轩 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 邮箱 | shenhaojun@stocke.com.cn | 邮箱 | zhangxuan01@stocke.com.cn | | 证书编号 | S1230523080011 | | | 价格表现 | | 【浙商金属】 | | 钢铁周度数据 | | （2026年1月11日） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 价格 | | | | 周涨跌幅 | | 年初至今涨跌幅 | | | 上证指数 | | 4 , | 120 | 3 | 8% . | 3 8% . | | | 沪深300 | | 4 , | 759 | 2 | 8% . | 2 8% . | | | SW钢铁指数 | | 2 , | 752 | 3 | 5% . | 3 5% . | | 板块 | | SW普钢指数 | 2 | 591 | 3 | 0% | 3 0% | | | | SW特钢指数 | , 4 | 929 | ...

国投期货 何建辉 投资咨询号 Z0000586 免费毒哪!: 国致现货商队公司是否中国正会会比数政立如期经营时间，已具集购架经还咨询业务资隆。本报告仅得细致的装响及:可（以下简称：本公司"））的机械或个人空产（以下简称" 客户" ）使用，本:因不会回转处：收到本保持而 其为客户，如接收人并和困投购货客户，请及时追四并删除，本报告是垂于本公司认为到致的已公开信息、但本公司不吸证液等倡购的调触 仅反映本公母于波布本报告当日的判断，本报告所划的期货或期限处价值、价值可能会成功。在不同时期，本公贸可找出与本报告所载资料、意见及她却不一动的报告，留户不在我非报告与果做出经资决规的唯一国房。在任何勤配下，本报告中 体制度电影新基本的做瓜研手不构成制作网人的影视剧以、在杯何情配下。本公司不对好何队,因使用本能图的相框作用的我的任何相提失免任何感影，本场带可能的情薄字河站战的发出或超碰狗。本公司不对群内容韵的魔掌的。 本公司不对群内容韵的魔掌的， 合法性，完整特年创 确性负责。本报告授的进步地过超级碰独的里的非阳之力了客户使用力便，随速网站的电商不构或本相信的任何回访，客不需四行裡包搭达这些网站的费用现动动。本场生做领风险本 ...

�� 戛投期货 钢市周周港 里全研投团队 2026/1/8 单位: 万吨 周产量 环比 厂内库存 环比 社会库存 环比 厂库+社库 环比 周消费量(未包括进出口) 环比 帽纹 191.04 2.82 147.93 8.56 290.18 7.52 438.11 16.08 174.96 -25.48 -3.19 44.09 45.72 3.08 6.65 72.91 3.57 89.81 -13.70 线材 66.26 290.81 热卷 305.51 1.00 77.32 -5.00 2.17 368.13 -2.83 308.34 -2.43 88.84 2.47 38.11 0.05 123.64 -0.06 161.75 -0.01 88.85 0.76 114.82 中板 160.29 196.12 158.41 0.31 81.3 0.20 1.68 1.88 -3.35 818.59 3.41 388.75 7.38 865.17 14.39 1253.92 21.77 796.82 -44.20 合计 数据简评：本周螺纹表需大幅下滑，产量继续小幅回升，库存开始累积。热卷需求回落，产量继续小幅回 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic steel market in December 2025 showed a narrow fluctuation with a significant contraction in supply and resilient demand, leading to continuous inventory reduction. The outlook for January 2026 indicates a continuation of the weak supply-demand balance, with seasonal effects from the Spring Festival putting pressure on demand, while supply may see a slight recovery due to improved profitability in steel mills. Overall, steel prices are expected to remain stable within a limited range due to cost support [2][19]. Supply and Production - Both blast furnace and electric arc furnace operating rates have declined. As of December 26, the operating rate for independent electric arc furnaces was 43.64%, down 3.64 percentage points month-on-month and down 7.27 percentage points year-on-year. The operating rate for blast furnaces was 74.76%, down 1.92 percentage points month-on-month but up 1.6 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - Steel production has decreased, with weekly total production of construction steel at 2.9269 million tons, down 1.57 million tons month-on-month and down 5.99% year-on-year. Hot-rolled coil production was 3.5509 million tons, down 0.53% month-on-month and down 2.82% year-on-year [5]. - The reduction in production and maintenance efforts in December were significantly higher than in November, with expectations for a slight easing in maintenance efforts in January [7]. Demand and Consumption - Steel consumption in December showed a slight month-on-month decline, with varied performance across different products. Hot-rolled demand increased by 0.6%, while other products like medium plates and construction materials saw declines of 0.6% and 1.1%, respectively. January's expected procurement volume remains under pressure, with anticipated declines across all product categories [9][11]. - In the construction sector, steel usage in the infrastructure industry decreased by 0.8% in December, with a further expected decline of 1.2% in January. The real estate sector also saw a decrease of 1.2% in December, with a projected decline of 2% in January [11][14]. Inventory and Pricing - Total steel inventory continued to decline in December, although it remains higher than the same period in 2024. As of December 26, the total inventory of construction steel was 5.8754 million tons, down 15.24% month-on-month but up 30.52% year-on-year. Hot-rolled coil inventory was 3.4989 million tons, down 2.85% month-on-month and up 10.87% year-on-year [15][20]. - Profitability for blast furnace steel mills improved in December, with production profits rising to 49 yuan per ton, while electric arc furnace mills continued to incur losses, albeit at a reduced rate [17][18]. Market Outlook - The steel market is expected to maintain a weak supply-demand balance in January 2026, influenced by seasonal demand pressures and uncertainties in export policies. While some steel mills may ease maintenance efforts due to improved profitability, overall production is expected to see a slight recovery. Cost factors are anticipated to provide support, limiting the downward price movement and leading to a likely continuation of range-bound trading [21][22].

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Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2) Core View of the Report - This week, the apparent demand for rebar declined, production continued to rise slightly, and inventory continued to be depleted. The demand for hot-rolled coils recovered, production increased slightly, and inventory depletion accelerated, but the pressure still needs to be alleviated. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes in demand during the off-season [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Production, Inventory, and Consumption Data**: - For all five major steel products combined, the weekly production was 872.56 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 1.15 million tons. The total inventory (factory + social) was 1257.99 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 18.29 million tons. The weekly consumption (excluding imports and exports) was 833.61 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 5.11 million tons [1]. - Rebar: The weekly production was 39.29 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 2.71 million tons. The factory inventory was 140.06 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 0.52 million tons. The social inventory was 294.19 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 18.81 million tons. The total inventory was 434.25 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 18.29 million tons. The weekly consumption was 202.68 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 5.96 million tons [1]. - Wire rod: The weekly production was 77.44 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 3.32 million tons. The factory inventory was 80.52 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 3.16 million tons. The social inventory was 296.7 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 10.60 million tons. The total inventory was 377.22 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 13.50 million tons. The weekly consumption was 43.7 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 3.42 million tons [1]. - Hot-rolled coil: The weekly production was 307.04 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 8.76 million tons. The factory inventory was 163.48 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.19 million tons. The social inventory was 196.02 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 0.80 million tons. The total inventory was 359.50 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 0.61 million tons. The weekly consumption was 86.67 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.04 million tons [1]. - Cold-rolled coil: The weekly production was 86.48 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 0.39 million tons. The factory inventory was 39.23 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 1.69 million tons. The social inventory was 124.25 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 1.88 million tons. The total inventory was 163.48 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.19 million tons. The weekly consumption was 86.67 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.04 million tons [1]. - Medium plate: The weekly production was 82.3 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.50 million tons. The factory inventory was 113.72 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 0.30 million tons. The social inventory was 159.78 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 1.02 million tons. The total inventory was 273.50 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.72 million tons. The weekly consumption was 79.68 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 2.88 million tons [1].

�� 闯然閲츠 黒金研投团队 钢市周周浏 2025/12/25 单位: 万吨 周产量 环比 厂内库存 环比 社会库存 环比 厂库+社库 环比 周消费量(未包括进出口) 环比 �要约 184 39 2.71 140 06 0 52 294 19 -18.81 434 25 -18.29 202.68 -5 96 43.32 72.33 -2.84 -1.69 43.7 -3.42 87.02 -5.11 -3.41 线材 77.44 293.54 80.52 296.7 -10.60 377.22 -13.50 热卷 1.63 -2.90 307.04 8.76 冷卷 86.48 0.39 39.23 1.69 124.25 -1.88 163.48 -0.19 86.67 -0.04 160.08 0.80 196.02 中板 -3.04 82.3 -0.50 113.72 0.30 159.78 -1.02 796.82 385.43 -2.88 -33.91 -36.79 合计 -1.15 872.56 1257.99 833.61 -1.67 数据简评：本同螺纹表需有所下滑，产量继续小幅回升，库存延续去 ...

免责声朗：国招聘总气周及公司昆经中国正冶金创优良印发动者制度，已具备解结铁路咨询制作资销馆，本标告仅供国税销货商贸公司（以下销旅、本公司"）的机构都个人息户（以下简称"客户"）使用。本公司不会固定的人收购本报告而没 其为客户，如澳优人并非军冠探货客户，请及时退四并删除，本报告是基于本公司认为可靠的已公开信息，但本公司不用证按等信息的推确性或完整任，本视飞推动配资料、意见及地则已提供客户作参考之目。本提高所避出辞、意见及她。 仅反映本公司于发布本报告当日的判断，本报告所能的期货或牌仅的价值、价值可能会玩动。在不同时期，本公司可发出与本报告所载资料、意见及舞 体能用或新易举的值得好并不给成就好在机人的影姿弹放，在任何情配下。本公因不变好何队人回使用本都提体的体好用的客所得到纳在伊朗诺埃·皮仔拥著仔。本场停可能的增第华河退战的想法可能到强势。 本公里币飞得尔森尊的尊झ轮， 合法托，完整钟和哲 确性负责，本报告授H这些地址或极程的目的年把免了客户使用力量。但经网站的车商不扣或本都搭在任用部分。客户调自行承担担放送生间站的费用如印。本相选的较风险公司称有，本公司对本统目管用量，切段利，除彩异事讲题型 示，否则本报告中的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of rebar indicates a trend where, in the absence of macroeconomic stories, fundamentals significantly influence futures prices. The current fundamentals for rebar are relatively strong, with good inventory reduction and stable prices across the country [1][4]. Group 1: Market Fundamentals - Steel inventory reduction is performing well, contributing to a relatively strong fundamental backdrop, which helps black commodities resist declines during overall commodity downturns. It is expected that steel inventory reduction will continue this week [1]. - National prices for steel are holding firm, with northern regions experiencing specification shortages due to actual production cuts by steel mills. Eastern China is also facing specification shortages, although it is not the highest-priced region nationally [1][4]. - The overall inventory is flowing towards higher-priced areas, indicating a market adjustment based on price levels [1]. Group 2: Export Performance - Steel exports remain robust, with total outbound shipments showing a week-on-week decline but a year-on-year improvement. The total outbound shipments were 305.3 million tons, down 26.46 million tons week-on-week, and 292.04 million tons when excluding two ports in Taiwan, down 34.82 million tons [4]. - The outbound shipments from 28 major foreign ports continue to rise week-on-week, with a narrowing of year-on-year negative values [4]. Group 3: Price Trends and Market Sentiment - The main rebar futures contract (2601) has shown a fluctuating upward trend, closing higher but facing significant resistance, indicating a lack of confidence among bulls and an overall weak oscillating pattern [5]. - The coal market, particularly coking coal, is under pressure due to the increasing losses among steel mills, with the profitability ratio of steel mills dropping to 38.96%, continuing a 14-week decline. This has led to reduced procurement of coking coal by steel mills [5]. - The price of rebar in Changzhou is reported at 3160 yuan/ton, while the price for wire rod is 3390 yuan/ton, reflecting the current market conditions [6][7].

Group 1 - The stock of Fujian Sangang Minmetals Co., Ltd. increased by 6.09%, reaching a price of 4.53 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 86.05 million CNY and a turnover rate of 0.81%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 11.004 billion CNY [1] - The company, established on December 26, 2001, and listed on January 26, 2007, specializes in steel smelting, rolling, processing, and the production and sale of pressure products [1] - The main business revenue composition includes: construction materials 30.17%, purchased steel 19.81%, products 13.71%, medium plates 13.47%, round steel 11.35%, others 6.36%, and section steel 5.13% [1] Group 2 - Huashang Fund's Huashang Stable Dual Benefit Bond A (630007) entered the top ten circulating shareholders of Sangang Minmetals in the second quarter, holding 11.5376 million shares, accounting for 0.47% of circulating shares, with an estimated floating profit of approximately 2.9998 million CNY [2] - The fund was established on August 9, 2010, with a latest scale of 2.478 billion CNY, and has achieved a year-to-date return of 5.82%, ranking 500 out of 6581 in its category, and a one-year return of 7.24%, ranking 555 out of 6357 [2] - Since its inception, the fund has achieved a return of 128.18% [2] Group 3 - The fund manager of Huashang Stable Dual Benefit Bond A is Zhang Yongzhi, who has a cumulative tenure of 15 years and 84 days, with the fund's total asset size at 5.671 billion CNY [3] - During his tenure, the best fund return was 156.48%, while the worst return was -41.37% [3]