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高盛:“银发群体” 崛起带动高端自付治疗项目增长 关注其中受益的主要股票
智通财经网· 2025-07-31 03:17
Group 1 - Goldman Sachs highlights certain healthcare services and treatments, such as high-end dental implants, cataract surgeries, and specific vaccines, which are not covered by national health insurance or affected by centralized drug procurement, indicating strong potential for continued growth in out-of-pocket medical spending among the "silver-haired" population (aged 50 and above) [1] - Goldman Sachs has upgraded ratings for several stocks expected to benefit from the growth in high-end out-of-pocket treatment projects, including Eye Care (300015.SZ) and Zhifei Biological (300122.SZ) to "Buy," while also rating Purui Eye Care (301239.SZ) and Straumann (SAUHY.US) as "Buy," and upgrading Shengtong Medical (600763.SH) to "Neutral" [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs focuses on the "silver-haired" demographic, which possesses strong consumption capability with net assets exceeding 3 million RMB, estimating a total addressable market (TAM) that will grow from 221 billion RMB (31 billion USD) in 2024 to 963 billion RMB (135 billion USD) by 2035, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.3% [2] - The report indicates that in 2024, this demographic will account for only 3% of the total population aged 50 and above but will contribute 5% of the healthcare spending for this group, with expectations that this contribution will rise to 13% by 2035 [2] - Goldman Sachs projects the CAGR for healthcare spending among individuals aged 50 and above with net assets over 3 million RMB during 2024-2035 under baseline, optimistic, and pessimistic scenarios to be 14%, 19%, and 9% respectively [2]
高盛:关于中国医疗健康、中国软件行业、香港地产、港交所、友邦保险等的最新观点
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-07-30 15:16
Group 1: Hong Kong Conglomerates and Real Estate - The rating for Jardine Matheson has been upgraded to "Buy" due to expected earnings improvements driven by Dairy Farm and HKLand [1] - Hong Kong real estate rental companies have outperformed developers, with commercial rents stabilizing earlier than expected [1] - Goldman Sachs favors companies emerging from high capital expenditure cycles, those improving shareholder returns through dividends or buybacks, and those with management or strategic changes [1] Group 2: Chinese Healthcare - The "silver economy" is gaining attention, with the elderly population (50+) expected to drive significant growth in healthcare spending, projected to increase from 221 billion RMB (31 billion USD) in 2024 to 963 billion RMB (135 billion USD) by 2035, at a CAGR of 14.3% [2][3] - High-end medical services not covered by national insurance are expected to benefit from increased out-of-pocket spending by this demographic [3] - Key stocks benefiting from this trend include Aier Eye Hospital, Puren Eye Hospital, and Zhifei Biological Products, with ratings upgraded to "Buy" [3] Group 3: Hong Kong Stock Exchange - The average daily turnover of cash stocks on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange has reached a historical high of over 200 billion HKD, despite stock prices being approximately 20% lower than their peak in 2021 [5][6] - Goldman Sachs has raised EPS estimates for 2025-2027 by about 4% and increased the 12-month target price by 11% to 500 HKD, maintaining a "Buy" rating [6] - Key factors that could drive stock price increases include A-shares listing in H-shares, increased ADR trading, and narrowing bid-ask spreads in cash markets [6] Group 4: Chinese Software Industry - The Chinese software industry is expected to see revenue growth in 2025, driven by improved customer order momentum, although profit recovery may take longer [11] - Key focus areas for upcoming earnings reports include AI product upgrades, IT spending outlook, and new business opportunities [11] - Preferred stocks include Kingsoft Office, Kingdee International, and Yonyou Network, which are favored for their early adoption of AI monetization and healthy cash flows [11]