9月30日，李子园盘中上涨2.27%，截至13:56，报12.64元/股，成交4950.41万元，换手率1.02%，总市值 49.31亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流入45.25万元，大单买入713.53万元，占比14.41%，卖出668.28万元，占比 13.50%。 李子园今年以来股价涨17.05%，近5个交易日涨1.53%，近20日跌8.27%，近60日跌1.33%。 今年以来李子园已经1次登上龙虎榜，最近一次登上龙虎榜为4月17日，当日龙虎榜净买入-370.08万 元；买入总计4519.83万元 ，占总成交额比8.25%；卖出总计4889.91万元 ，占总成交额比8.93%。 资料显示，浙江李子园食品股份有限公司位于浙江省金华市金东区丹溪东路1016号李子园科创大楼，成 立日期1994年10月22日，上市日期2021年2月8日，公司主营业务涉及甜牛奶乳饮料系列等含乳饮料和其 他饮料的研发、生产与销售。主营业务收入构成为：含乳饮料93.76%，其他4.86%，乳味风味饮料 0.73%，其他(补充)0.47%，复合蛋白饮料0.17%。 李子园所属申万行业为：食品饮料-饮料乳品-软饮料。所属概念板块包括： ...

Core Viewpoint - Li Ziyuan's stock price has shown volatility, with a year-to-date increase of 25.01%, but a recent decline of 4.80% over the past five trading days, indicating potential market fluctuations and investor sentiment changes [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of September 3, Li Ziyuan's stock price was 13.50 CNY per share, with a market capitalization of 5.266 billion CNY [1]. - The stock has experienced a net outflow of 511.66 million CNY in principal funds, with large orders accounting for 11.33% of total purchases and 18.34% of total sales [1]. - The company has appeared on the "Dragon and Tiger List" once this year, with a net buy of -3.7008 million CNY on April 17 [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Li Ziyuan reported a revenue of 621 million CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 8.53%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 96.1224 million CNY, reflecting a growth of 1.05% [2]. - Since its A-share listing, the company has distributed a total of 653 million CNY in dividends, with 479 million CNY distributed over the past three years [3]. Group 3: Company Overview - Li Ziyuan, established on October 22, 1994, is located in Jinhua City, Zhejiang Province, and specializes in the research, production, and sales of dairy beverages, with 93.76% of its revenue coming from dairy drinks [1][2]. - The company operates within the food and beverage sector, specifically in the soft drink category, and is associated with concepts such as e-commerce and domestic dairy industry [2].

Core Viewpoint - Zhejiang Liziyuan Food Co., Ltd. has issued convertible bonds totaling RMB 600 million, with a maturity of 6 years and a structured interest rate that increases over time, aimed at expanding its production capacity and enhancing its market position in the beverage industry [3][14]. Section 1: Bond Overview - The company has received approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission to issue convertible bonds amounting to RMB 600 million, with a face value of RMB 100 per bond, totaling 6 million bonds [3][4]. - The net proceeds from the bond issuance, after deducting issuance costs of RMB 2.4 million, amount to RMB 597.6 million [3][14]. - The bonds will be listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange under the name "Liziyuan Convertible Bonds" with the code "111014" starting from July 13, 2023 [3][4]. Section 2: Key Terms of the Bonds - The bonds have a structured interest rate that starts at 0.3% in the first year and increases to 2.0% by the sixth year [5][6]. - Interest payments will be made annually, with the first payment due on June 20, 2025, covering the period from June 20, 2024, to June 19, 2025 [25]. - The initial conversion price for the bonds is set at RMB 19.47 per share, with provisions for adjustments based on stock performance and corporate actions [7][9]. Section 3: Use of Proceeds - The total amount raised will be fully allocated to the expansion and technological upgrade of a production line for 150,000 tons of dairy beverages [14][21]. - The company has established a dedicated account for the management of the raised funds, ensuring compliance with regulatory requirements [21][22]. Section 4: Financial Performance - For the fiscal year ending December 2023, the company reported a revenue of RMB 1.415 billion, a slight increase of 0.22% year-on-year [17][20]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 5.55% to RMB 223.8 million compared to the previous year [17][20]. - The company’s total assets stood at RMB 2.988 billion, reflecting a decrease of 2.30% year-on-year [20]. Section 5: Credit Rating - The company has been assigned a credit rating of AA by Dongfang Jincheng, with a stable outlook for both the company and the convertible bonds [14][26].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" investment rating with a 6-month target price of 15.78 CNY [5][6]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from the launch of its new health-oriented product, VitaYoung, which features a "6-zero" formula, aligning with health consumption trends and potentially driving significant sales growth [1]. - A new generation manager has taken over, indicating a shift towards professional and youthful governance, alongside a revamped marketing strategy that leverages online media and celebrity endorsements to enhance brand visibility among younger consumers [2]. - The company is experiencing a reduction in the cost of bulk powder, leading to an increase in gross margin, which is projected to continue improving due to favorable raw milk prices [3]. - The company has a strong commitment to shareholder returns, planning to distribute approximately 194 million CNY in cash dividends, which represents 86.57% of the net profit for the year [4]. Financial Projections - Revenue growth is forecasted at 8.0%, 8.5%, and 9.0% for the years 2025 to 2027, with net profit growth expected at 7.5%, 15.5%, and 15.1% respectively, indicating strong growth potential [5][18]. - The company’s revenue for 2025 is projected to be 1,528 million CNY, with a gross margin of 41.7% [19][26]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 0.60 CNY in 2023 to 0.81 CNY by 2027 [19][26]. Business Structure and Product Lines - The company focuses on sweet milk beverage products, with a significant portion of revenue coming from its core dairy drink segment, which has shown consistent growth [10][12]. - The product mix includes a variety of beverages, with dairy drinks accounting for 95.69% of revenue, while new product lines like plant protein and vitamin water are being developed to meet diverse consumer needs [12][16]. - The company has established a strong distribution network, covering over 2,600 dealers nationwide, which supports its market presence [13].