今年，剑桥词典把 Parasocial 选为年度词，可以翻译为准社会关系。 这其实不是一个新词， 1956 年，当时芝加哥大学的社会学家唐纳德·霍顿和理查德·沃尔 注意到一个奇怪现象：电视观众 会对屏幕里的主持人、演员、新闻播报员产生一种类似于熟人的情感投入，仿佛和他们建立了亲密关系。 两位学者把这种情境称为Parasocial：一种看似亲密、实则完全单向的情感连接。 近七十年过去，这种关系在算法和社交媒体的加持下，越来越贴近我们的生活： 在饭圈文化中，你可能从未见过泰勒·斯威夫特或肖战本人，但当他们在网络上遭遇非议时，你会产生强烈的保护欲，甚 至像捍卫家人一样为他们冲锋陷阵。 在直播带货中，这种关系转化为了真金白银的信任。比如在董宇辉的直播间里，成千上万的"丈母娘"们一边听他讲故 事、聊人生，一边下单。她们下单的动力，就像源于一种"支持自家孩子生意"的情感。 在 AI 浪潮中，这种关系甚至跨越了碳基生物的界限。越来越多的人开始向 AI 聊天机器人倾诉难以对活人启齿的心事， 把它当作最可信赖的伙伴。电影《她》中人机相恋的科幻场景，正在变成现实。 剑桥大学实验社会心理学教授西蒙娜·施纳尔对此说到："我们已经进入 ...

Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 8.46 billion RMB for Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.6%, and an adjusted net profit of 2.41 billion RMB, up 32.6% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin improved from 42.6% in Q3 2024 to 43.5% in Q3 2025, driven by growth in music subscription and advertising service revenues, despite a decline in the revenue share from social entertainment [1] - The company effectively managed costs, with total expenses reaching 1.31 billion RMB, a 7.6% increase year-on-year, while the expense ratio decreased from 17.4% in Q3 2024 to 15.5% in Q3 2025 [1] Online Music Growth - Online music service revenue grew by 27.2% year-on-year to 6.97 billion RMB, primarily due to increased subscription revenue and contributions from live performances and advertising [2] - Subscription revenue reached 4.5 billion RMB, a 17.2% increase year-on-year, driven by an increase in ARPPU from 10.8 RMB in Q3 2024 to 11.9 RMB in Q3 2025 [2] - Monthly active users decreased by 4.3% to 551 million, while the number of paying users increased by 5.6% to 12.57 million [2] Expansion of Fan Economy and Concert Business - The company is expanding its music library through collaborations and self-produced content, including partnerships with Korean and Japanese music labels [3] - In Q3, the company hosted 14 concerts for G-Dragon across six cities, attracting over 150,000 attendees, with strong ticket sales [3] - The introduction of interactive communities for fans and enhanced artist-related benefits is expected to drive further growth in the online music business [3] Investment Outlook - The company maintains a "strong buy" investment rating, supported by its content copyright advantages and the strengthening willingness of domestic users to pay [4] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are expected to reach 32.66 billion RMB, 36.98 billion RMB, and 41.30 billion RMB, with adjusted net profits of 9.60 billion RMB, 10.85 billion RMB, and 12.18 billion RMB respectively [4] - The company anticipates further increases in payment rates, SVIP membership numbers, and ARPPU values [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for Tencent Music [2][5] Core Insights - The company achieved total revenue of 8.46 billion RMB in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.6%, with adjusted net profit increasing by 32.6% to 2.41 billion RMB [1][5] - Online music revenue continues to grow steadily, with a 27.2% year-on-year increase to 6.97 billion RMB, driven by subscription and advertising services [5][6] - The company is actively expanding into the fan economy and concert business, enhancing its competitive advantages through collaborations and content diversification [5][6] Financial Performance - Revenue and profit growth are supported by effective cost control, with gross margin improving from 42.6% in Q3 2024 to 43.5% in Q3 2025 [5][6] - The online music subscription revenue reached 4.5 billion RMB, up 17.2% year-on-year, driven by an increase in ARPPU from 10.8 RMB to 11.9 RMB [5][6] - The company expects revenues to reach 32.66 billion RMB, 36.98 billion RMB, and 41.30 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with adjusted net profits projected at 9.60 billion RMB, 10.85 billion RMB, and 12.18 billion RMB [6][8] Market Position and Strategy - Tencent Music holds a strong position in content copyright, with a focus on enhancing user willingness to pay and optimizing membership benefits [5][6] - The company is expanding its concert business, having successfully hosted multiple performances in various cities, attracting over 150,000 attendees [5][6] - The introduction of interactive fan communities and exclusive artist-related benefits is expected to drive further growth in subscription rates and user engagement [5][6]

Core Insights - Tencent Music's Q3 revenue reached 8.463 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21%, exceeding Bloomberg's expectations by 2.8%, driven by growth in fan economy-related income [1] - The adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders (Non-IFRS) for Q3 was 2.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33%, also surpassing Bloomberg's expectations by 3.7%, primarily due to high growth in online music [1] Revenue Breakdown - Online music revenue for Q3 was 6.97 billion yuan, up 27% year-on-year, with membership revenue contributing 4.49 billion yuan, an 18% increase year-on-year, driven by SVIP package offerings [2] - The average revenue per paying user (ARPPU) for Q3 was 11.9 yuan/month, a 12% year-on-year increase, with expectations for Q4 ARPPU to reach 12.2 yuan/month, a 14% increase year-on-year [2] - Non-subscription revenue for Q3 was 2.48 billion yuan, a significant 48% year-on-year increase, attributed to strong performance in concerts and innovative advertising formats [2] Social Entertainment Performance - Social entertainment revenue for Q3 was 1.49 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.7% year-on-year, primarily due to adjustments in live interaction features and stricter compliance procedures, though it has stabilized [2] - Q4 social entertainment revenue is expected to reach 1.50 billion yuan, reflecting an 8% year-on-year decline [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company anticipates net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 to be 11.2 billion, 10.1 billion, and 11.4 billion yuan respectively, with adjustments made to membership payment rates and ARPPU [3] - A target price of 87.50 HKD (79.74 RMB) is set for 2026, based on a 24x P/E ratio, maintaining a "buy" rating [3]

在情怀与套路被不断消耗殆尽，整个电影行业在颓气、焦虑和"捉襟见肘"的无奈中艰难前行时，又是一部动画打破了这种沉闷。 预售票房1.8亿刷新中国影史进口动画纪录；零点场票房1884万元，拿下进口动画第二高午夜场纪录；首日票房破亿带动市场时隔36天重返亿元大盘。 《鬼灭之刃：无限城篇 第一章 猗窝座再袭》（下文简称《无限城篇》）用实打实的成绩证明，好作品可以排除市场整体低迷、高度依赖档期、进口片退 烧等各种不利因素，跨越年龄和文化界限，赢得更广泛的观众。 类似《哪吒2》的感觉，许多看完《无限城篇》观众纷纷被点燃了，感叹原来人可以这样全力以赴活着，它让普通人相信，纵使身俱灭，亦要斩断悲伤的 连锁。 然而，伴随着热度与口碑的发酵，围绕剧情节奏、真实的票房数据以及日漫电影本身问题的争议声浪渐起。而这些争议恰恰是一部好作品的标配，票房之 争、话题之争、观众们被触动和被冒犯的情节，几乎是所有爆款避不开也逃不了的漩涡。抛开各种是是非非，这部影片在故事、内核和技术层面展现出的 态度、真诚、野心、孤注一掷造出奇景的魄力，却正是当下迷茫的中国电影最需要的态度和精神。 "六边形战士"是怎样炼成的？ 作为近年最火的日本漫画，在《无限城篇 ...

Core Viewpoint - The phenomenon of "cloud screening" has evolved from a promotional tool into a complex system where fans exert significant influence over the production and marketing of dramas, leading to a distorted perception of success based on manipulated data rather than genuine audience engagement [6][17][25] Group 1: Evolution of Cloud Screening - Initially, "cloud screening" served as a promotional tool allowing non-members to access shows, potentially increasing viewership [7] - Over time, it transformed into a mechanism for fans to boost a show's visibility and rankings, often at the expense of genuine quality [7][12] - The practice has become a norm where fans demand participation from brands and other actors, creating a culture of obligation rather than voluntary support [11][13] Group 2: Impact on Industry Dynamics - The reliance on cloud screening has led to a "data ransom" situation where the perceived success of a show is artificially inflated, creating a false sense of prosperity [6][20] - This trend has resulted in a shift in power dynamics, where fans leverage their financial contributions to gain influence over casting and production decisions [14][15] - The industry's focus on short-term data gains has overshadowed the importance of quality content, leading to a homogenization of productions that prioritize fan engagement over originality [23][24] Group 3: Long-term Consequences - The current model fosters a dependency on inflated metrics, which may ultimately harm the sustainability of the business as audiences become accustomed to free or discounted access [20][25] - The pressure to conform to fan expectations can stifle creativity, resulting in a lack of diverse and innovative storytelling [23][24] - As the industry continues to chase short-term gains through cloud screening, it risks alienating genuine viewers and undermining long-term trust in content quality [25]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Music [4][6]. Core Views - The growth of the fan economy is expected to accelerate, leading to an increase in the company's membership ARPPU due to the rising proportion of SVIP bundled packages [4]. - The projected net profits for the years 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 11.2 billion, 10.1 billion, and 11.4 billion CNY respectively, with adjustments made to previous forecasts based on financial report updates [4]. - A target price of 87.50 HKD (approximately 79.74 CNY) is set for 2026, based on a P/E ratio of 24 times [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, Tencent Music reported revenue of 8.463 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 21%, exceeding Bloomberg's expectations by 2.8% [11]. - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 43.5%, up 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, driven by growth in music subscription and advertising service revenues [11]. - The adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2025 was 2.41 billion CNY, a 33% increase year-on-year, also surpassing Bloomberg's expectations by 3.7% [11]. - Online music revenue reached 6.97 billion CNY in Q3 2025, reflecting a 27% year-on-year growth, with membership revenue contributing 4.49 billion CNY, an 18% increase [11]. - The ARPPU for Q3 2025 was 11.9 CNY/month, a 12% increase year-on-year, with expectations for further growth in Q4 2025 [11]. Revenue Breakdown - Non-subscription revenue for Q3 2025 was 2.48 billion CNY, a significant 48% increase year-on-year, attributed to strong performance in concerts and innovative advertising formats [11]. - Social entertainment revenue for Q3 2025 was 1.49 billion CNY, a slight decrease of 2.7% year-on-year, but is expected to stabilize in Q4 2025 [11]. Future Projections - The report anticipates that the fan economy will continue to drive revenue growth, with expectations for Q4 2025 total revenue to reach approximately 8.45 billion CNY, maintaining high year-on-year growth [11]. - The projected revenue for 2025 is 32.706 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 15.2% [14].

Core Viewpoint - Tencent Music (TME.US) is expected to halt a three-day decline in stock price, with a pre-market increase of 1.34%. Despite exceeding Q3 performance expectations, concerns over competition, particularly from ByteDance's subsidiary, are pressuring the stock. Citigroup maintains a "Buy" rating, highlighting TME's transition towards a more robust social music ecosystem, which may initially impact gross margins but is expected to drive sustainable growth in the long term [1]. Group 1 - Tencent Music's stock price increased by 1.34% in pre-market trading, indicating a potential end to a three-day decline [1]. - Citigroup's report emphasizes that despite strong Q3 results, market concerns about competition are affecting TME's stock performance [1]. - The report suggests that TME is evolving into a higher barrier social music ecosystem, which may initially affect gross margins due to investments in live concert operations [1]. Group 2 - TME's stock closed at $18.680, with a pre-market price of $18.930, reflecting a change of +0.250 [2]. - The stock's trading volume was 15.259 million, with a market capitalization of $28.934 billion [2]. - TME's 52-week high and low are $26.700 and $10.132, respectively, indicating significant volatility in its stock price [2].

Core Viewpoint - Tencent Music is responding to competitive pressure from ByteDance's "Soda Music" by expanding its premium membership offerings and enhancing its offline concert business to create new growth engines [1][4]. Group 1: Strategic Response - Citi's report highlights that the market's sell-off of TME shares is an overreaction to competitive concerns, presenting a buying opportunity [3][4]. - TME's strategy focuses on a multi-tiered membership system designed to enhance user value and retention rather than engaging in a price war [4][5]. Group 2: Membership and Revenue Growth - The multi-tiered membership service, including SVIP memberships, is expected to drive growth in paying users and ARPPU (Average Revenue Per Paying User) through high-quality music content and exclusive concert privileges [5][6]. - TME aims to provide more exclusive benefits and products based on fan economy, which will help boost SVIP subscriptions [7]. Group 3: Offline Concert Strategy - TME is heavily investing in large-scale tours and proprietary IP events, which not only generate new revenue streams but also deepen collaborations with artists, creating an online-offline ecosystem [6][8]. - The concert business enhances user experience and fosters stronger relationships within the music ecosystem [7]. Group 4: Competitive Advantages - TME's management expresses confidence in its core advantages, including a rich music content library, extensive user asset management experience, and high penetration across multiple platforms [9]. - The synergy with Tencent's gaming and video IPs provides a unique competitive edge that is difficult for rivals to replicate [9]. Group 5: Financial Outlook - TME's projected financial performance shows a net profit increase from RMB 6,223 million in 2023 to RMB 12,490 million by 2027, with a diluted EPS growth from RMB 3.925 to an estimated RMB 7.999 [10]. - Despite potential short-term impacts on gross margins from the concert business, the long-term strategic investments in fan economy and ecosystem are expected to drive sustainable growth [10].

Core Viewpoint - Tencent Music is expanding its premium membership and enhancing offline concert business to build new growth engines in response to competition from ByteDance's "Soda Music" [1][4] Group 1: Strategic Response to Competition - Citi's report highlights that despite TME's Q3 performance exceeding expectations, market concerns over competition have pressured its stock price, leading investors to adopt a risk-averse stance [1][3] - The report argues that the sell-off is "unfounded" and presents a great buying opportunity for investors [3] Group 2: Dual-Driven Growth Strategy - TME's strategy is not merely a price war but involves a well-designed multi-tier membership system aimed at enhancing user value and stickiness, catering to different user groups from free to premium memberships [4] - The multi-tier membership service and SVIP membership are expected to drive growth in paying users and ARPPU (Average Revenue Per Paying User) through high-quality music content, exclusive concert privileges, and optimized audio quality [4] Group 3: Offline Concerts as a Strategic Focus - TME is heavily investing in large-scale tours and proprietary IP events, which not only create new revenue streams but also deepen collaborations with artists and provide exclusive benefits for paying members, forming an online-offline ecosystem [5] - The concert business helps establish experiences and fosters deeper relationships within the ecosystem, promoting SVIP subscription growth through fan economy-based products [5] Group 4: Core Competitive Advantages - TME's management expresses confidence in its core advantages, including a rich music content library, extensive user asset management experience, and high penetration across multiple platforms [6] - The synergy with Tencent's gaming and video IPs is a unique advantage that competitors find hard to replicate, creating a solid competitive moat [6] Group 5: Financial Projections - TME's projected net profit and diluted EPS show a growth trajectory, with net profit expected to rise from RMB 6.223 billion in 2023 to RMB 12.490 billion by 2027, and diluted EPS increasing from RMB 3.925 to RMB 7.999 over the same period [7] - Citi reaffirms a "buy" rating for TME, indicating that the company is transitioning towards a more robust social music ecosystem, with strategic investments in fan economy and ecosystem expected to drive sustainable growth in the long term [7]