生态洞藏系列白酒

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迎驾贡酒(603198):跟踪报告:区域龙头地位稳固,生态洞藏增势延续
Haitong Securities International· 2025-06-08 10:32
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for the company, with a target price of Rmb66.00 based on a current price of Rmb40.93 [2][5]. Core Insights - The baijiu industry is experiencing intensified differentiation, with national and regional leaders demonstrating resilience. This adjustment marks a shift from incremental expansion to stock optimization, expected to lead to a new pattern characterized by "high-end leadership and regional integration" [3][11]. - The company is recognized as a leader in ecological baijiu, holding a core position in the popular price band within Anhui Province. Its unique brewing water source contributes to its ecological taste, allowing it to avoid traditional strong flavor competition. The company has achieved the highest market share in the popular price band in the province, with over 80% coverage in townships [12][3]. - The growth of the company's cave collection series continues, with a significant increase in its revenue share. From 2015 to 2023, the company's total revenue and net profit grew at CAGRs of +11.1% and +20.1%, respectively. In FY24, total revenue and net profit are projected to increase by 8.5% and 13.4% year-on-year, respectively [13][4]. Financial Performance Summary - The company's gross profit margin and net profit margin for FY24 are expected to be 73.9% and 35.3%, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.6 percentage points and 1.21 percentage points. This is attributed to strong sales of high-end products and effective cost control [14][4]. - The company announced a dividend yield of 3.7% for FY24, with a payout ratio of 46.3%, indicating potential for further increases in long-term investment value. Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are Rmb74 billion, Rmb79 billion, and Rmb84 billion, with corresponding net profits of Rmb27 billion, Rmb28 billion, and Rmb29 billion [15][5].