1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot market will fluctuate and adjust. Based on sow and piglet data, the number of pig slaughter may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly and continuously. The positive fat - standard price difference may support pig prices. It is recommended to temporarily observe the 2511 contract as it is almost at par with the spot price [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures End - **主力合约基差情况**: The continuous weight reduction is beneficial for the future. The far - month contracts of live pigs within the year are oscillating strongly [3]. - **各合约价格变化情况**: The prices of far - month contracts are oscillating strongly [6]. - **月间价差变化**: The monthly spreads are oscillating and adjusting [9][12]. 3.2 Spot End - **猪价与宰量**: This week, the slaughter volume increased steadily, while pig prices adjusted weakly [15]. - **区域价差**: The regional price differences are relatively reasonable [17]. - **肥标价差**: The fat - standard price difference is oscillating and adjusting overall. Attention should be paid to whether it can strengthen seasonally, which may reduce the market's willingness to reduce weight or even prompt weight gain [19]. - **鲜销与毛白价差**: Terminal consumption is relatively stable year - on - year [21]. - **相关产品比价与鲜冻价差**: The cost - effectiveness of pork is average. The fresh - frozen price difference of No. 2 meat is weakening, and the cost - effectiveness of frozen products is lower than that of fresh products [23]. - **养殖利润**: The self - breeding and self - raising profit is still considerable, while the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening is slightly in the red [25]. - **出栏体重**: The average slaughter weight continued to decline this week. Attention should be paid to whether it can reach a level close to that of the same period last year [27]. 3.3 Capacity End - **能繁母猪存栏量**: As of the end of June, the national inventory of fertile sows was 40.43 million, with a month - on - month and year - on - year increase of 0.1%. In July, the inventory of fertile sows in sample data from different sources continued to increase [29]. - **母猪淘汰情况**: The price of culled sows weakened this week. The slaughter volume of culled sows decreased month - on - month in July, and the market's enthusiasm for capacity reduction was average [32]. - **母猪生产效率与新生健仔数**: In July, the number of healthy newborn piglets increased by 0.06% month - on - month, corresponding to an overall oscillating increase in the number of slaughtered pigs in January next year [34]. - **母猪、仔猪补栏积极性**: This week, the price of 15 - kg piglets was stable with a slight downward trend, and the price of 50 - kg二元 sows was weak [36]. 3.4 Slaughter End - **屠宰量与屠宰利润等**: The slaughter volume continued to increase month - on - month. In June, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises was 30.06 million, a month - on - month decrease of 6.5% and a year - on - year increase of 23.7%. The frozen product market will gradually enter the de - stocking stage, and its impact on pig prices will change from positive to neutral and slightly negative [38]. 3.5 Import End - In June 2025, the pork import volume was about 90,000 tons, basically the same as the previous month. The current scale of pork imports has a limited impact on domestic pig prices [41].