Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall pig price in China is stable with a slight downward trend. The prices in the northern market have been slightly adjusted downwards over the weekend, and the terminal consumption is weak with limited demand growth. Although some large-scale farms have reduced their slaughter volume, the overall supply of pigs in the market is sufficient, providing insufficient support for prices. The southern market is also running weakly and stable, with active slaughter by farmers, a loose supply, and weak sales feedback from slaughtering enterprises. The current supply - demand pattern has not changed significantly, and the market lacks the impetus for continuous growth. It is expected that the pig prices in both the north and the south will be subject to narrow - range adjustments in the short term. The abundant supply of pigs and weak terminal consumption remain the main factors restricting the market [3]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog Futures Market - **Price Changes**: The previous day's closing prices for January, March, May, July, September, and November contracts were 13,545, 9,730, 10,220, 11,280, 12,575, and 12,805 respectively. Compared with the prices two days ago, the price changes were 140, 130, - 115, - 90, 75, and 95, with corresponding percentage changes of 1.04%, 1.35%, - 1.11%, - 0.79%, 0.60%, and 0.75% [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes were 5,846, 0, 148,035, 39,134, 24,315, and 7,693 respectively. The open interests were 21,949, 42, 203,669, 74,575, 66,889, and 41,452 respectively, with changes of 1,149, - 13, 3,858, 2,375, 1,994, and 1,164 [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The current spreads for January - March, March - May, May - July, July - September, September - November, and November - January were 3,815, - 490, - 1,060, - 1,295, - 230, and - 740 respectively, compared with the previous values of 3,805, - 735, - 1,035, - 1,130, - 210, and - 695 [2]. Spot Market - **Price Changes**: The current spot prices in Henan, Sichuan, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Liaoning were 10.02, 9.87, 9.87, 10.17, 9.64, and 9.66 yuan/ton respectively. Compared with the previous values, the price changes were 0, - 19.78, - 0.13, - 0.37, - 0.12, and - 0.08 [2]. Warehouse Receipts - The number of warehouse receipts was 1,051 on the previous day, the same as two days ago, with no change [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The futures main contract LH2605 slightly declined by 0.13% to 11,540 yuan/ton. The average price of national outer ternary live pigs was reported at 11.52 yuan/kg, slightly up 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous day. The market shows a regional differentiation pattern. The market at the slaughter end features "contraction in the north and stability in the south". As the Spring Festival approaches, pre - festival stocking is coming to an end. The market supply and demand both tend to weaken, with the north entering the pre - festival quiet period earlier than the south. Short - term pig prices may show a narrow - range fluctuation supported by sentiment and local stocking, but the overall upside space is limited. Attention should be paid to the change in the slaughter sentiment of the breeding end and the post - festival consumption recovery rhythm [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Fluctuation**: The previous day's closing prices of futures contracts in January, March, May, July, September, and November were 13,280, 10,895, 11,540, 12,230, 13,180, and 13,160 respectively. The price changes were - 5, 50, - 15, - 30, - 30, and 10, with corresponding percentage changes of - 0.04%, 0.46%, - 0.13%, - 0.24%, - 0.23%, and 0.08% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes were 174, 23,297, 43,604, 4,822, 2,624, and 1,144 respectively. The open interests were 2,695, 35,155, 141,128, 49,769, 37,465, and 23,918 respectively, with changes of 33, - 11,104, - 6,442, - 428, - 268, and - 114 [2] - **Price Spreads**: The current price spreads of "January - March", "March - May", "May - July", "July - September", "September - November", and "November - January" were 2,385, - 645, - 690, - 950, 20, and - 120 respectively, compared with the previous values of 2,440, - 710, - 705, - 950, 60, and - 135 [2] Spot Market - **Price and Fluctuation**: The current spot prices in Henan, Sichuan, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Liaoning were 12.18, 10.8, 11.23, 11.47, 11.54, and 11.5 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 0.24, - 21.6, 0.02, 0, 0.07, and - 0.1 compared with the previous values [2] Warehouse Receipts - The number of warehouse receipts the day before the previous day was 727, and the number the previous day was 1027, with an increase of 300 [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - From January 19 - 25, 2026, the live hog futures and cash markets showed a pattern of "first declining then stabilizing, stronger in the north and weaker in the south". The main contract LH2603 fell 3.75% weekly to close at 11,580 yuan/ton, and the national average price of external ternary live hogs was 13.0 yuan/kg on January 25. The core drivers were the game between pre - holiday stocking and second - round fattening hog sales, and high frozen product inventory and slaughter losses suppressed the price increase [1]. - On the demand side, pre - holiday stocking and low - temperature weather drove up procurement, but slaughter enterprise losses and high frozen product inventory restricted the operating rate. On the supply side, large - scale enterprises' hog sales progress was behind schedule, second - round fattening hog sales increased, some regions delayed hog sales to gain more weight, and the expectation of concentrated hog sales at the end of the month was rising [1]. - The per - head profit of hog farmers improved slightly but remained near the break - even point. The slaughter end continued to suffer losses, forcing price cuts in hog procurement and limiting the upside space for the spot price [1]. - In the future, it is highly probable that the market will fluctuate within a range. As pre - holiday stocking approaches the end, the pressure of concentrated hog sales emerges. Futures and spot prices will maintain narrow - range fluctuations, the pattern of stronger in the north and weaker in the south will continue, and price elasticity will be limited [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - The live hog futures and cash markets from January 19 - 25, 2026, were "first declining then stabilizing, stronger in the north and weaker in the south". The main contract LH2603 had a weekly decline of 3.75% to 11,580 yuan/ton, and the national average spot price of external ternary live hogs was 13.0 yuan/kg on January 25. The key factors were the game between pre - holiday stocking and second - round fattening hog sales, along with high frozen product inventory and slaughter losses suppressing price increases. The future trend is likely to be range - bound with narrow - range fluctuations and a continued north - strong, south - weak pattern [1]. Factors to be Concerned About - Changes in the inventory of breeding sows, the progress of consumption recovery, and policy regulation dynamics [2]. Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data | Indicator | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Period | Weekly Change | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Piglets | Yuan/head | 343.33 | 309.05 | 34.28 | Weekly | | Weekly average slaughter weight | Kilograms | 123.51 | 123.05 | 0.01 | Weekly | | Profit from purchasing piglets for breeding | Yuan/head | 37.85 | - 39.11 | 76.96 | Weekly | | Profit from self - breeding and self - raising | Yuan/head | 115.96 | 65.3 | 52.46 | Weekly | | Slaughter operating rate | % | 34.13 | 33.47 | 0.66 | Weekly | [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - Last week, the live hog spot market showed "oscillatory recovery and partial strength", while the futures market continued the pattern of "near - term weakness and long - term strength". The long - short game focused on the slaughter rhythm and Spring Festival stocking [1]. - On the supply side, large - scale pig enterprises plan to slaughter about 14.15 million pigs in January, a nearly 3% decrease from the previous month. The big - weight pig sources are still abundant, the entry of secondary fattening has slowed down, and the slaughter weight has declined from the high level [1]. - On the demand side, the terminal consumption before the festival is weak, the slaughtering enterprises' operating rate has limited recovery, the Spring Festival stocking has gradually started but at a slow pace, and the support is insufficient [1]. - Support factors include the reduction of supply and price support by the breeding end, the reduction of the group's slaughter plan, the entry of secondary fattening, the consumption support in the north, and the recovery of the pig - grain ratio to near the break - even line. Suppression factors include the ebb of curing demand in the south, the difficulty in digesting big - weight pig sources, the overall sufficient market supply, and the weakening of terminal consumption after New Year's Day [1]. - In the short term, the operating range of the main live hog contract 2603 is 11,700 - 11,900 yuan/ton. Key factors to watch include changes in the inventory of breeding sows, the progress of consumption recovery, and policy regulation dynamics [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - The live hog spot market showed "oscillatory recovery and partial strength" last week, and the futures market continued the "near - term weakness and long - term strength" pattern. The long - short game focused on the slaughter rhythm and Spring Festival stocking [1]. - Supply side: Large - scale pig enterprises plan to slaughter about 14.15 million pigs in January, a nearly 3% decrease from the previous month. Big - weight pig sources are still abundant, the entry of secondary fattening has slowed down, and the slaughter weight has declined from the high level [1]. - Demand side: Terminal consumption before the festival is weak, the slaughtering enterprises' operating rate has limited recovery, the Spring Festival stocking has gradually started but at a slow pace, and the support is insufficient [1]. - Support factors: Reduction of supply and price support by the breeding end, reduction of the group's slaughter plan, entry of secondary fattening, consumption support in the north, and recovery of the pig - grain ratio to near the break - even line [1]. - Suppression factors: Ebb of curing demand in the south, difficulty in digesting big - weight pig sources, overall sufficient market supply, and weakening of terminal consumption after New Year's Day [1]. - Short - term operating range of the main contract 2603: 11,700 - 11,900 yuan/ton. Key factors to watch: Changes in the inventory of breeding sows, progress of consumption recovery, and policy regulation dynamics [1]. 2. This Week's Fundamental Data Weekly Changes - Piglet price: 253.33 yuan/head, up 21.66 yuan from the previous week [2]. - Weekly average slaughter weight: 123.32 kg, down 0.03 kg from the previous week [2]. - Profit from purchasing piglets for fattening: - 74.89 yuan/head, up 2.81 yuan from the previous week [2]. - Profit from self - breeding and self - fattening: 59.26 yuan/head, down 3.14 yuan from the previous week [2]. - Slaughtering operating rate: 35.37%, down 0.34 percentage points from the previous week [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot market will fluctuate and adjust. Based on sow and piglet data, the number of pig slaughter may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly and continuously. The positive fat - standard price difference may support pig prices. It is recommended to temporarily observe the 2511 contract as it is almost at par with the spot price [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures End - **主力合约基差情况**: The continuous weight reduction is beneficial for the future. The far - month contracts of live pigs within the year are oscillating strongly [3]. - **各合约价格变化情况**: The prices of far - month contracts are oscillating strongly [6]. - **月间价差变化**: The monthly spreads are oscillating and adjusting [9][12]. 3.2 Spot End - **猪价与宰量**: This week, the slaughter volume increased steadily, while pig prices adjusted weakly [15]. - **区域价差**: The regional price differences are relatively reasonable [17]. - **肥标价差**: The fat - standard price difference is oscillating and adjusting overall. Attention should be paid to whether it can strengthen seasonally, which may reduce the market's willingness to reduce weight or even prompt weight gain [19]. - **鲜销与毛白价差**: Terminal consumption is relatively stable year - on - year [21]. - **相关产品比价与鲜冻价差**: The cost - effectiveness of pork is average. The fresh - frozen price difference of No. 2 meat is weakening, and the cost - effectiveness of frozen products is lower than that of fresh products [23]. - **养殖利润**: The self - breeding and self - raising profit is still considerable, while the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening is slightly in the red [25]. - **出栏体重**: The average slaughter weight continued to decline this week. Attention should be paid to whether it can reach a level close to that of the same period last year [27]. 3.3 Capacity End - **能繁母猪存栏量**: As of the end of June, the national inventory of fertile sows was 40.43 million, with a month - on - month and year - on - year increase of 0.1%. In July, the inventory of fertile sows in sample data from different sources continued to increase [29]. - **母猪淘汰情况**: The price of culled sows weakened this week. The slaughter volume of culled sows decreased month - on - month in July, and the market's enthusiasm for capacity reduction was average [32]. - **母猪生产效率与新生健仔数**: In July, the number of healthy newborn piglets increased by 0.06% month - on - month, corresponding to an overall oscillating increase in the number of slaughtered pigs in January next year [34]. - **母猪、仔猪补栏积极性**: This week, the price of 15 - kg piglets was stable with a slight downward trend, and the price of 50 - kg二元 sows was weak [36]. 3.4 Slaughter End - **屠宰量与屠宰利润等**: The slaughter volume continued to increase month - on - month. In June, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises was 30.06 million, a month - on - month decrease of 6.5% and a year - on - year increase of 23.7%. The frozen product market will gradually enter the de - stocking stage, and its impact on pig prices will change from positive to neutral and slightly negative [38]. 3.5 Import End - In June 2025, the pork import volume was about 90,000 tons, basically the same as the previous month. The current scale of pork imports has a limited impact on domestic pig prices [41].

Report Overview - Report Date: April 24, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Pig Futures Daily Report - Author: Shi Xiangying, Pig Researcher [5] Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. Core Views - Short - term pig prices may fluctuate, and there may be new lows in the long - term [4]. - The basis for the view is that the supply of pigs will be abundant in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of 2025, demand support is weak, and the increasing live - weight of pigs indicates inventory accumulation by farmers [4]. Summary by Section Market Dynamics - On April 23, the number of registered pig futures warehouse receipts was 665 lots [2]. - The LH2505 contract is mainly subject to spot - futures convergence and delivery games. The far - month contracts are strongly supported by the expectation of limited increase in subsequent supply, the peak consumption season in the second half of the year, and potential increase in far - month breeding costs [2]. - The main contract (LH2509) added 1,239 lots in positions today, with an open interest of about 80,000 lots. The highest price was 14,490 yuan/ton, the lowest was 14,325 yuan/ton, and it closed at 14,365 yuan/ton [2]. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. Based on piglet data, the overall slaughter volume of pigs will increase in Q2 and Q3 of 2025. The first half of the year is the off - season for demand, while the second half is the peak season [3]. - From historical and current fundamentals, there is still room for the fat - to - standard price difference to decline [3]. - Market bearish logic: Farmers have not yet reduced the weight of pigs, subsequent slaughter volume is expected to continue to increase, and demand support for pig prices is limited in Q2 and Q3 [3]. - Market bullish logic: Slaughterhouses' inventory replenishment is not over, which can support pig prices; the spot price is firm, indicating that supply - demand is not as loose as bears think; the subsequent increase in supply is limited, and Q3 and Q4 are gradually entering the peak consumption season for pigs; rising prices of corn and soybean meal may increase pig breeding costs [3]. Strategy Suggestions - Short - term pig prices may fluctuate, and there may be new lows in the long - term [4]. - The core logic is that the supply of pigs will be abundant in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of 2025, demand support is weak in Q2 and Q3, the live - weight of pigs is still increasing, indicating inventory accumulation by farmers, and if there is a concentrated weight reduction later, pig prices may hit new lows [4]. - Due to high uncertainty in the long - term and weak short - term weight - reduction drive, and the futures price being in a relatively reasonable range, it is recommended to wait and see for now [4]. Market Overview - On April 23, the national average pig slaughter price was 14.98 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The slaughter price in Henan was 14.97 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg (- 0.2%) from the previous day. In Sichuan, it was 14.8 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [6]. - For futures prices, all contracts showed a decline on April 23 compared to the previous day, with the decline rate of the 09 contract being - 0.83% [6]. - The main basis in Henan increased by 90 yuan/ton (17.48%) to 605 yuan/ton [6].