期货研究报告 2026年01月12日 生猪期货：底部震荡整理 高剑飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0014742 gaojianfei@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：（上周）生猪现货呈 "震荡回升、局部偏强"，期货延续 "近弱远强"，多空 博弈聚焦出栏节奏与春节备货。 供应端：规模猪企 1 月计划出栏约 1415 万头，环比降近 3%，头部控量挺价；大体重猪源仍多，二 次育肥入场放缓，出栏体重高位回落。需求端：节前终端消费偏弱，屠企开工率回升有限，春节备货逐步 启动但节奏偏缓，支撑力度不足。 支撑因素：养殖端缩量挺价，集团出栏计划下调，二次育肥入场，北方消费支撑，猪粮比回升至盈亏 平衡线附近。压制因素：南方腌腊需求退潮，大体重猪源消化困难，市场整体供应仍充足，元旦后终端消 费转弱。短期生猪主力2603合约运行区间 11700—11900元/吨 关注因素：1.能繁母猪存栏变化；2.消费复苏进度；3.政策调控动态等。 | 生猪 | 单位 | 最新一周 | 上一期 | 周度环比变化量 | 频率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 仔猪 | 元/头 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot market will fluctuate and adjust. Based on sow and piglet data, the number of pig slaughter may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly and continuously. The positive fat - standard price difference may support pig prices. It is recommended to temporarily observe the 2511 contract as it is almost at par with the spot price [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures End - **主力合约基差情况**: The continuous weight reduction is beneficial for the future. The far - month contracts of live pigs within the year are oscillating strongly [3]. - **各合约价格变化情况**: The prices of far - month contracts are oscillating strongly [6]. - **月间价差变化**: The monthly spreads are oscillating and adjusting [9][12]. 3.2 Spot End - **猪价与宰量**: This week, the slaughter volume increased steadily, while pig prices adjusted weakly [15]. - **区域价差**: The regional price differences are relatively reasonable [17]. - **肥标价差**: The fat - standard price difference is oscillating and adjusting overall. Attention should be paid to whether it can strengthen seasonally, which may reduce the market's willingness to reduce weight or even prompt weight gain [19]. - **鲜销与毛白价差**: Terminal consumption is relatively stable year - on - year [21]. - **相关产品比价与鲜冻价差**: The cost - effectiveness of pork is average. The fresh - frozen price difference of No. 2 meat is weakening, and the cost - effectiveness of frozen products is lower than that of fresh products [23]. - **养殖利润**: The self - breeding and self - raising profit is still considerable, while the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening is slightly in the red [25]. - **出栏体重**: The average slaughter weight continued to decline this week. Attention should be paid to whether it can reach a level close to that of the same period last year [27]. 3.3 Capacity End - **能繁母猪存栏量**: As of the end of June, the national inventory of fertile sows was 40.43 million, with a month - on - month and year - on - year increase of 0.1%. In July, the inventory of fertile sows in sample data from different sources continued to increase [29]. - **母猪淘汰情况**: The price of culled sows weakened this week. The slaughter volume of culled sows decreased month - on - month in July, and the market's enthusiasm for capacity reduction was average [32]. - **母猪生产效率与新生健仔数**: In July, the number of healthy newborn piglets increased by 0.06% month - on - month, corresponding to an overall oscillating increase in the number of slaughtered pigs in January next year [34]. - **母猪、仔猪补栏积极性**: This week, the price of 15 - kg piglets was stable with a slight downward trend, and the price of 50 - kg二元 sows was weak [36]. 3.4 Slaughter End - **屠宰量与屠宰利润等**: The slaughter volume continued to increase month - on - month. In June, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises was 30.06 million, a month - on - month decrease of 6.5% and a year - on - year increase of 23.7%. The frozen product market will gradually enter the de - stocking stage, and its impact on pig prices will change from positive to neutral and slightly negative [38]. 3.5 Import End - In June 2025, the pork import volume was about 90,000 tons, basically the same as the previous month. The current scale of pork imports has a limited impact on domestic pig prices [41].

Report Overview - Report Date: April 24, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Pig Futures Daily Report - Author: Shi Xiangying, Pig Researcher [5] Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. Core Views - Short - term pig prices may fluctuate, and there may be new lows in the long - term [4]. - The basis for the view is that the supply of pigs will be abundant in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of 2025, demand support is weak, and the increasing live - weight of pigs indicates inventory accumulation by farmers [4]. Summary by Section Market Dynamics - On April 23, the number of registered pig futures warehouse receipts was 665 lots [2]. - The LH2505 contract is mainly subject to spot - futures convergence and delivery games. The far - month contracts are strongly supported by the expectation of limited increase in subsequent supply, the peak consumption season in the second half of the year, and potential increase in far - month breeding costs [2]. - The main contract (LH2509) added 1,239 lots in positions today, with an open interest of about 80,000 lots. The highest price was 14,490 yuan/ton, the lowest was 14,325 yuan/ton, and it closed at 14,365 yuan/ton [2]. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. Based on piglet data, the overall slaughter volume of pigs will increase in Q2 and Q3 of 2025. The first half of the year is the off - season for demand, while the second half is the peak season [3]. - From historical and current fundamentals, there is still room for the fat - to - standard price difference to decline [3]. - Market bearish logic: Farmers have not yet reduced the weight of pigs, subsequent slaughter volume is expected to continue to increase, and demand support for pig prices is limited in Q2 and Q3 [3]. - Market bullish logic: Slaughterhouses' inventory replenishment is not over, which can support pig prices; the spot price is firm, indicating that supply - demand is not as loose as bears think; the subsequent increase in supply is limited, and Q3 and Q4 are gradually entering the peak consumption season for pigs; rising prices of corn and soybean meal may increase pig breeding costs [3]. Strategy Suggestions - Short - term pig prices may fluctuate, and there may be new lows in the long - term [4]. - The core logic is that the supply of pigs will be abundant in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of 2025, demand support is weak in Q2 and Q3, the live - weight of pigs is still increasing, indicating inventory accumulation by farmers, and if there is a concentrated weight reduction later, pig prices may hit new lows [4]. - Due to high uncertainty in the long - term and weak short - term weight - reduction drive, and the futures price being in a relatively reasonable range, it is recommended to wait and see for now [4]. Market Overview - On April 23, the national average pig slaughter price was 14.98 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The slaughter price in Henan was 14.97 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg (- 0.2%) from the previous day. In Sichuan, it was 14.8 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [6]. - For futures prices, all contracts showed a decline on April 23 compared to the previous day, with the decline rate of the 09 contract being - 0.83% [6]. - The main basis in Henan increased by 90 yuan/ton (17.48%) to 605 yuan/ton [6].