Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core View - The current pig market is in a short - term adjustment phase. The futures market has entered the expected trading stage. The expected state reserve purchase has driven the formation of policy - bottom sentiment, and the unanimous bullish expectation from July to August has boosted the near - end sentiment, with the spot price rising continuously. However, the large number of piglets sold by groups in the first quarter will start to be slaughtered in July, limiting the upside of the spot price. The impact path of this round of inventory reduction is more complex, and subsequent spot verification is needed. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [1][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 14,930 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 100 yuan/ton; the Sichuan spot price is 13,900 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 50 yuan/ton; the Guangdong spot price is 15,840 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 200 yuan/ton [3]. - **Futures Prices**: The price of the pig 2507 contract is 13,625 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the pig 2509 contract is 14,005 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 35 yuan/ton; the pig 2511 contract is 13,445 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 30 yuan/ton [3]. - **Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the pig 2507 contract is 1,283 lots, an increase of 386 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 2,259 lots, a decrease of 1,068 lots from the previous day; the pig 2509 contract has a trading volume of 24,055 lots, an increase of 3,614 lots, and an open interest of 80,002 lots, a decrease of 1,758 lots; the pig 2511 contract has a trading volume of 3,378 lots, a decrease of 456 lots, and an open interest of 41,017 lots, a decrease of 236 lots [3]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of the pig 2507 contract is 1,305 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 125 yuan/ton; the pig 2509 contract basis is 925 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 135 yuan/ton; the pig 2511 contract basis is 1,485 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 130 yuan/ton. The 7 - 9 spread of pigs is - 380 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 10 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 11 spread is 560 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 5 yuan/ton [3]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The range of trend intensity is an integer within the [-2, 2] interval, where - 2 represents the most bearish view and 2 represents the most bullish view [4]. Market Logic - The current futures market has entered the expected trading stage. The expected state reserve purchase has led to the formation of policy - bottom sentiment, and the unanimous bullish expectation from July to August has boosted the near - end sentiment, causing the spot price to rise. However, the large number of piglets sold by groups in the first quarter will start to be slaughtered in July, which limits the upside of the spot price. The impact path of this round of inventory reduction is more complex, and subsequent spot verification is needed. Attention should be paid to stop - profit and stop - loss. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [5].