Report Overview - Investment Rating for the Industry: Maintain a volatile outlook for live hogs [1] - Core View: The current market has entered the expected trading phase. The expected state reserve purchase has driven the formation of a policy bottom sentiment, and the unanimous bullish expectation from July to August has boosted the near - term sentiment, increasing the market's speculative sentiment. The large number of piglets sold by group farms in the first quarter will start to be slaughtered in mid - to - late July. The impact path of this round of inventory rotation is more complex and needs to be judged based on multiple factors. Short - term support and resistance levels for the LH2509 contract are 13,500 yuan/ton and 15,000 yuan/ton respectively [5] Fundamental Data Spot Prices - Henan spot price is 14,730 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 100 yuan/ton - Sichuan spot price is 14,000 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 350 yuan/ton - Guangdong spot price is 16,290 yuan/ton, with no year - on - year change [3] Futures Prices - The price of live hog 2509 is 14,285 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 60 yuan/ton - The price of live hog 2511 is 13,605 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 40 yuan/ton - The price of live hog 2601 is 13,725 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 20 yuan/ton [3] Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume of live hog 2509 is 26,084 lots, an increase of 4,625 lots from the previous day; the open interest is 69,384 lots, a decrease of 2,852 lots from the previous day - The trading volume of live hog 2511 is 6,298 lots, an increase of 691 lots from the previous day; the open interest is 43,452 lots, an increase of 659 lots from the previous day - The trading volume of live hog 2601 is 2,872 lots, a decrease of 1,397 lots from the previous day; the open interest is 21,614 lots, an increase of 556 lots from the previous day [3] Price Spreads - The basis of live hog 2509 is 445 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 40 yuan/ton - The basis of live hog 2511 is 1,125 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 60 yuan/ton - The basis of live hog 2601 is 1,005 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 120 yuan/ton - The spread between live hog 9 - 11 is 680 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 20 yuan/ton - The spread between live hog 11 - 1 is - 120 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 60 yuan/ton [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook (the range of trend intensity is an integer within [- 2,2], with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish) [4] Market Logic - The current market is in the expected trading phase. The expected state reserve purchase has led to a policy bottom sentiment, and the July - August bullish expectation has increased near - term sentiment and market speculation. The large number of piglets sold by group farms in Q1 will enter the market in mid - to - late July. The impact path of inventory rotation is complex and requires consideration of multiple factors. Short - term support and resistance levels for the LH2509 contract are 13,500 yuan/ton and 15,000 yuan/ton respectively [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The current market has entered the expected trading phase. The expectation of state reserve purchases has led to the formation of a policy bottom sentiment, and the unanimous bullish expectation from July to August has boosted the near - term sentiment, increasing the market gaming sentiment. The large number of piglets sold by group farms in the first quarter will start to be slaughtered in mid - to late July, and subsequent spot performance should be monitored. The impact path of this round of inventory rotation is more complex and needs to be judged in combination with factors such as weight reduction, spot price reaction, and small - scale farmer's pig holding. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [4] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: Henan's spot price is 14,880 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton; Sichuan's is 14,450 yuan/ton, unchanged; and Guangdong's is 16,540 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - **Futures Prices**: The price of the live hog 2509 contract is 14,375 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton; the 2511 contract is 13,695 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan/ton; and the 2601 contract is 13,775 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the live hog 2509 contract is 40,300 lots, an increase of 14,639 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 74,505 lots, an increase of 2,765 lots. The 2511 contract has a trading volume of 9,558 lots, an increase of 1,014 lots, and an open interest of 43,119 lots, an increase of 70 lots. The 2601 contract has a trading volume of 5,085 lots, an increase of 1,223 lots, and an open interest of 20,483 lots, an increase of 403 lots [2] - **Price Spreads**: The basis of the live hog 2509 contract is 505 yuan/ton, down 260 yuan/ton; the 2511 contract is 1,185 yuan/ton, down 245 yuan/ton; the 2601 contract is 1,105 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton. The spread between the 9 - 11 contracts is 680 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton, and the spread between the 11 - 1 contracts is - 80 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [2] 2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The range of trend intensity is an integer within the [-2, 2] interval, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [3] 3. Market Logic - The current market is in the expected trading phase, with policy and near - term sentiment driving the market. Attention should be paid to the subsequent spot performance after the large - scale slaughter of piglets in mid - to late July. The inventory rotation path is complex, and stop - loss and take - profit should be noted. The short - term support and pressure levels for the LH2509 contract are given [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The current market has entered the expected trading phase. The expected state reserve purchase has driven the formation of policy - bottom sentiment, and the consistent bullish expectation from July to August has boosted near - end sentiment. The spot price has continued to strengthen, and the futures market has repaired the basis. However, the futures price offers hedging profits, leading to increased market competition. The large number of piglets sold by group farms in the first quarter will start to be slaughtered in July. The impact path of this round of inventory reduction is more complex, and subsequent spot performance needs to be observed. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [5] Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog 1. Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 15,030 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Sichuan spot price is 14,450 yuan/ton, unchanged year - on - year; the Guangdong spot price is 16,540 yuan/ton, unchanged year - on - year [3] - **Futures Prices**: The price of the Pig 2509 contract is 14,265 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Pig 2511 contract is 13,600 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Pig 2601 contract is 13,675 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton year - on - year [3] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Pig 2509 contract is 25,661 lots, an increase of 2,678 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 71,740 lots, a decrease of 1,328 lots from the previous day; the Pig 2511 contract has a trading volume of 8,544 lots, an increase of 2,954 lots, and an open interest of 43,049 lots, an increase of 808 lots; the Pig 2601 contract has a trading volume of 3,862 lots, a decrease of 180 lots, and an open interest of 20,080 lots, an increase of 461 lots [3] - **Price Spreads**: The Pig 2509 basis is 765 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Pig 2511 basis is 1430 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Pig 2601 basis is 1355 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Pig 9 - 11 spread is 665 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Pig 11 - 1 spread is - 75 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton year - on - year [3] 2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral market sentiment. The range of trend intensity is an integer within the [-2, 2] interval, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The current phase of the futures market has entered the expected trading stage. The expectation of state reserve purchases has led to the formation of a policy bottom sentiment, and the unanimous bullish expectation from July to August has boosted near - term sentiment. The spot prices have been continuously strengthening, and the futures market is undergoing basis repair. However, the futures prices are offering hedging profits, leading to increased market speculation. The large number of piglets sold by group farms in the first quarter will start to be slaughtered in July, and subsequent spot performance should be monitored. The impact path of this round of inventory reduction is more complex, and factors such as weight reduction, spot price reaction, and small - scale farmer hog retention need to be considered. Traders should wait for subsequent spot market verification and pay attention to stop - loss and take - profit. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 14,500 yuan/ton [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of pigs in Henan is 14,980 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton year - on - year; in Sichuan, it is 14,450 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan/ton year - on - year; in Guangdong, it is 16,640 yuan/ton, down 800 yuan/ton year - on - year [2] - **Futures Prices**: The price of the pig 2509 contract is 14,245 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton year - on - year; the 2511 contract is 13,685 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton year - on - year; the 2601 contract is 13,780 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton year - on - year [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the pig 2509 contract is 28,287 lots, down 13,440 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 73,418 lots, down 3,761 lots from the previous day; the 2511 contract has a trading volume of 10,017 lots, down 5,700 lots, and an open interest of 41,964 lots, up 344 lots; the 2601 contract has a trading volume of 5,048 lots, down 2,654 lots, and an open interest of 19,369 lots, up 688 lots [2] - **Price Spreads**: The basis of the pig 2509 contract is 735 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan/ton year - on - year; the 2511 contract basis is 1,295 yuan/ton, down 165 yuan/ton year - on - year; the 2601 contract basis is 1,200 yuan/ton, down 215 yuan/ton year - on - year. The 9 - 11 spread is 560 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton year - on - year, and the 11 - 1 spread is - 95 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton year - on - year [2] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral market view. The range of trend intensity is an integer within the [- 2,2] interval, where - 2 represents the most bearish view and 2 represents the most bullish view [3]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The current stage of the market has entered the expected trading phase. The expected state reserve purchase has led to the formation of a policy bottom sentiment, and the unanimous bullish expectation from July to August has boosted the near - end sentiment. The spot price has continued to strengthen, and the futures market has been repairing the basis. However, the futures price has offered hedging profits, leading to increased market speculation. The large number of piglets sold by group farms in the first quarter will start to be slaughtered in July, and the subsequent performance of the spot market should be monitored. The impact path of this round of inventory reduction is more complex and requires comprehensive consideration of factors such as weight reduction, spot price reaction, and small - scale farmer's pig holding behavior. Traders should pay attention to setting stop - profit and stop - loss levels. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Price**: The Henan spot price is 15,180 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Sichuan spot price is 14,850 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Guangdong spot price is 17,440 yuan/ton, unchanged year - on - year [2] - **Futures Price**: The price of the live hog 2509 contract is 14,305 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton year - on - year; the 2511 contract is 13,720 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton year - on - year; the 2601 contract is 13,765 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton year - on - year [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the 2509 contract is 41,727 lots, down 5,350 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 77,179 lots, down 2,473 lots from the previous day; the 2511 contract has a trading volume of 15,717 lots, up 5,114 lots, and an open interest of 41,620 lots, down 480 lots; the 2601 contract has a trading volume of 7,702 lots, up 1,180 lots, and an open interest of 18,681 lots, up 889 lots [2] - **Spread**: The basis of the 2509 contract is 875 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton year - on - year; the 2511 contract's basis is 1,460 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan/ton year - on - year; the 2601 contract's basis is 1,415 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton year - on - year. The 9 - 11 spread is 585 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton year - on - year; the 11 - 1 spread is - 45 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton year - on - year [2] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with a range of [-2, 2]. A value of -2 indicates the most bearish sentiment, and 2 indicates the most bullish sentiment [3] 3.3 Market Logic - The market has entered the expected trading phase. The expected state reserve purchase and the July - August bullish expectation have influenced the market. The large number of piglets sold in the first quarter will affect the supply in July. The inventory reduction path is complex, and the subsequent spot performance needs to be observed. The short - term support and pressure levels for the LH2509 contract are provided [4]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The current futures market has entered the expected trading stage. The expectation of state reserve purchases has led to the formation of a policy bottom sentiment, and the unanimous bullish expectation from July to August has boosted the near - end sentiment. The spot price has been continuously strengthening, and the futures market is undergoing basis repair. A large number of piglets sold by large - scale farms in the first quarter will start to be slaughtered in July, and subsequent spot performance should be monitored. The impact path of this round of inventory reduction is more complex, and it is necessary to judge the path based on factors such as weight reduction, spot price reaction, and small - scale farmer hoarding. Wait for subsequent spot verification and pay attention to stop - profit and stop - loss. In the short term, the support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 14,500 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 15,130 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; the Sichuan spot price is 14,750 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton; the Guangdong spot price is 17,040 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan/ton [3]. - **Futures Prices**: The price of the Pig 2509 contract is 14,340 yuan/ton, up 475 yuan/ton; the Pig 2511 contract is 13,550 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan/ton; the Pig 2601 contract is 13,575 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton [3]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Pig 2509 contract is 80,558 lots, an increase of 58,279 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 83,925 lots, an increase of 5,729 lots. The trading volume of the Pig 2511 contract is 15,375 lots, an increase of 10,983 lots, and the open interest is 42,922 lots, an increase of 1,156 lots. The trading volume of the Pig 2601 contract is 6,507 lots, an increase of 4,709 lots, and the open interest is 17,841 lots, an increase of 227 lots [3]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of the Pig 2509 contract is 790 yuan/ton, down 425 yuan/ton; the basis of the Pig 2511 contract is 1,580 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton; the basis of the Pig 2601 contract is 1,555 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton. The spread between Pig 9 - 11 is 790 yuan/ton, up 315 yuan/ton; the spread between Pig 11 - 1 is - 25 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2 Trend Intensity The trend intensity is 0, with a range of [-2, 2]. A value of -2 indicates the most bearish view, and 2 indicates the most bullish view [4]. 3.3 Market Logic The futures market is in the expected trading stage. Factors such as state reserve purchase expectations and short - term bullish sentiment are driving the market. The large number of piglets sold in the first quarter will affect the supply starting from July. The inventory reduction path is complex, and it is necessary to wait for spot verification and pay attention to stop - profit and stop - loss. The short - term support and resistance levels for the LH2509 contract are given [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The current market has entered the expected trading phase. The expected government purchase and storage has led to the formation of a policy - bottom sentiment, and the consistent bullish expectation from July to August has boosted the near - end sentiment with the continuous strengthening of spot prices. However, a large number of piglets sold by group farms in the first quarter will start to be slaughtered in July, and the market is trading the logic of social inventory reduction in advance. The impact path of this inventory reduction is more complex, and it is necessary to wait for subsequent spot price verification and pay attention to stop - profit and stop - loss. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 15,080 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 100 yuan/ton; the Sichuan spot price is 14,550 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 150 yuan/ton; the Guangdong spot price is 16,640 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 400 yuan/ton [2] - **Futures Prices**: The price of the LH2509 contract is 13,865 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the price of the LH2511 contract is 13,390 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 35 yuan/ton; the price of the LH2601 contract is 13,490 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 5 yuan/ton [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the LH2509 contract is 22,279 lots, a decrease of 16,062 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 78,196 lots, a decrease of 3,230 lots from the previous day; the trading volume of the LH2511 contract is 4,392 lots, a decrease of 2,924 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 41,766 lots, a decrease of 123 lots from the previous day; the trading volume of the LH2601 contract is 1,798 lots, a decrease of 1,246 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 17,614 lots, an increase of 251 lots from the previous day [2] - **Price Spreads**: The basis of the LH2509 contract is 1,215 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 105 yuan/ton; the basis of the LH2511 contract is 1,690 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 65 yuan/ton; the basis of the LH2601 contract is 1,590 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 95 yuan/ton; the spread between LH2509 and LH2511 is 475 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 40 yuan/ton; the spread between LH2511 and LH2601 is - 100 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 30 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with the range of values from - 2 to 2. The strength levels are classified as weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong, where - 2 represents the most bearish view and 2 represents the most bullish view [3] 3.3 Market Logic - The current market is in the expected trading stage. The expected government purchase and storage has formed a policy - bottom sentiment, and the consistent bullish expectation from July to August has driven the near - end sentiment. The spot price has been rising. However, a large number of piglets sold by group farms in the first quarter will start to be slaughtered in July, and the market is trading the social inventory reduction logic in advance. The impact path of this inventory reduction is complex and needs to be judged based on factors such as weight reduction, spot price reaction, and small - scale farmer's hoarding behavior. Wait for subsequent spot price verification and pay attention to stop - profit and stop - loss. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The current futures market has entered the expected trading stage. The expectation of state reserve purchases has led to the formation of a policy bottom sentiment, and the consensus bullish expectation from July to August has boosted the near - end sentiment. The spot market has been strengthening continuously. However, the large number of piglets sold by groups in the first quarter will start to be slaughtered in July, limiting the upside space of the spot price. The impact path of this round of inventory reduction is more complex and requires consideration of factors such as weight reduction, spot price reaction, and small - scale farmers' hoarding behavior. Traders should wait for subsequent spot price verification and pay attention to setting stop - loss and take - profit levels. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 14,500 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 14,980 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; the Sichuan spot price is 14,400 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan/ton; the Guangdong spot price is 16,240 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan/ton [1]. - **Futures Prices**: The price of the LH2507 contract is 13,850 yuan/ton, up 225 yuan/ton; the price of the LH2509 contract is 13,870 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan/ton; the price of the LH2511 contract is 13,355 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the LH2507 contract is 2,960 lots, an increase of 1,677 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 209 lots, a decrease of 2,050 lots from the previous day; the trading volume of the LH2509 contract is 38,341 lots, an increase of 14,286 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 81,426 lots, an increase of 1,424 lots from the previous day; the trading volume of the LH2511 contract is 7,316 lots, an increase of 3,938 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 41,889 lots, an increase of 872 lots from the previous day [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of the LH2507 contract is 1,130 yuan/ton, down 175 yuan/ton; the basis of the LH2509 contract is 1,110 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan/ton; the basis of the LH2511 contract is 1,625 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan/ton; the 7 - 9 spread of live hogs is - 20 yuan/ton, up 360 yuan/ton; the 9 - 11 spread of live hogs is 515 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral market sentiment. The range of trend intensity is an integer within the [- 2,2] interval, where - 2 represents the most bearish view and 2 represents the most bullish view [2].

Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core View - The current pig market is in a short - term adjustment phase. The futures market has entered the expected trading stage. The expected state reserve purchase has driven the formation of policy - bottom sentiment, and the unanimous bullish expectation from July to August has boosted the near - end sentiment, with the spot price rising continuously. However, the large number of piglets sold by groups in the first quarter will start to be slaughtered in July, limiting the upside of the spot price. The impact path of this round of inventory reduction is more complex, and subsequent spot verification is needed. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [1][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 14,930 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 100 yuan/ton; the Sichuan spot price is 13,900 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 50 yuan/ton; the Guangdong spot price is 15,840 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 200 yuan/ton [3]. - **Futures Prices**: The price of the pig 2507 contract is 13,625 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the pig 2509 contract is 14,005 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 35 yuan/ton; the pig 2511 contract is 13,445 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 30 yuan/ton [3]. - **Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the pig 2507 contract is 1,283 lots, an increase of 386 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 2,259 lots, a decrease of 1,068 lots from the previous day; the pig 2509 contract has a trading volume of 24,055 lots, an increase of 3,614 lots, and an open interest of 80,002 lots, a decrease of 1,758 lots; the pig 2511 contract has a trading volume of 3,378 lots, a decrease of 456 lots, and an open interest of 41,017 lots, a decrease of 236 lots [3]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of the pig 2507 contract is 1,305 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 125 yuan/ton; the pig 2509 contract basis is 925 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 135 yuan/ton; the pig 2511 contract basis is 1,485 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 130 yuan/ton. The 7 - 9 spread of pigs is - 380 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 10 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 11 spread is 560 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 5 yuan/ton [3]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The range of trend intensity is an integer within the [-2, 2] interval, where - 2 represents the most bearish view and 2 represents the most bullish view [4]. Market Logic - The current futures market has entered the expected trading stage. The expected state reserve purchase has led to the formation of policy - bottom sentiment, and the unanimous bullish expectation from July to August has boosted the near - end sentiment, causing the spot price to rise. However, the large number of piglets sold by groups in the first quarter will start to be slaughtered in July, which limits the upside of the spot price. The impact path of this round of inventory reduction is more complex, and subsequent spot verification is needed. Attention should be paid to stop - profit and stop - loss. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [5].