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生猪期货 LH2601 合约
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生猪:矛盾积累,等待现货印证
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-11-09 12:14
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the spot market for live pigs showed weak and volatile prices. The supply side had a slight reduction in enterprise volume at the beginning of the month, but the willingness of retail farmers to sell increased. The demand side was suppressed after the price increase, and the willingness to store in cold storage decreased, leading to weaker demand. The average slaughter weight increased slightly. In the futures market, the price of live pig futures fluctuated and adjusted, and the basis of the LH2601 contract decreased [1][2]. - Next week, the spot price of live pigs is expected to run weakly. The supply is in a continuous incremental stage, and the pressure is expected to remain high. The demand is expected to weaken, and the spot price center may move further down. In the futures market, the LH2601 contract has pressure on inventory digestion before the Spring Festival, and the spot price is under continuous pressure. The far - end support is strengthened, and attention should be paid to stop - profit and stop - loss. The short - term support level of the LH2601 contract is 11,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 12,300 yuan/ton [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Review (11.3 - 11.9) - **Spot Market**: The price of 20KG piglets in Henan was 20.9 yuan/kg (last week 19.95 yuan/kg), the price of live pigs in Henan was 11.98 yuan/kg (last week 12.53 yuan/kg), and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide was 1,548 yuan/head (last week 1,546 yuan/head). The average slaughter weight nationwide was 124.65KG (last week 124.51KG), with a month - on - month increase of 0.11% [1]. - **Futures Market**: The highest price of the LH2601 contract of live pig futures this week was 12,015 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,580 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,865 yuan/ton (11,815 yuan/ton last week). The basis of the LH2601 contract was 115 yuan/ton (715 yuan/ton last week) [2]. 3.2 Next Week's Market Outlook (11.10 - 11.16) - **Spot Market**: The spot price of live pigs will run weakly. The supply pressure is large, and the demand is expected to weaken, and the price center may move down [3]. - **Futures Market**: The LH2601 contract has inventory pressure before the Spring Festival, and the spot price is under continuous pressure. The far - end support is strengthened. The short - term support level is 11,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 12,300 yuan/ton [4]. 3.3 Other Data - **Basis and Spread**: This week's basis was 115 yuan/ton, and the LH2601 - LH2603 spread was 400 yuan/ton [8]. - **Supply Data**: In September, the pork production was 5.496 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.5%; the pork import was 80,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.02% [11].