生猪期货LH2605
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申万期货品种策略日报-生猪(LH)-20260226
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2026-02-26 01:44
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The main contract of live hog futures, LH2605, closed up 1.55% to 1,1465 yuan/ton, with a high basis. However, the spot market declined under pressure, and the average ex-farm price of ternary live hogs nationwide fell to 10.74 yuan/kg. After the Spring Festival, the market showed a pattern of strong supply and weak demand: the enthusiasm of the breeding end for slaughter was high, and the slaughter volume of key enterprises increased by nearly 15% month-on-month; while the terminal consumption mainly focused on digesting holiday inventories, with insufficient demand support. Although the slaughter volume rebounded, it was difficult to digest the supply pressure. In addition, the losses at the breeding end intensified, with the average loss per head of self-breeding and self-raising exceeding 150 yuan. Overall, the spot market is expected to operate weakly in the short term under the dual pressure of supply release and weak demand. Attention should be paid to the subsequent slaughter rhythm and consumption recovery [3]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: The previous day's closing prices of live hog futures contracts in January, March, May, July, September, and November were 13,340 yuan, 10,395 yuan, 11,465 yuan, 12,345 yuan, 13,310 yuan, and 13,265 yuan respectively. The price increases were 195 yuan, 40 yuan, 200 yuan, 260 yuan, 230 yuan, and 225 yuan respectively, with increases of 1.48%, 0.39%, 1.78%, 2.15%, 1.76%, and 1.73% respectively [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes were 1,815, 14,972, 92,718, 15,843, 11,884, and 5,222 respectively. The open interests were 3,814, 24,796, 154,467, 52,808, 41,868, and 25,712 respectively. The changes in open interests were 805, -3,216, 1,934, 1,694, 2,979, and 1,705 respectively [2]. - **Spreads**: The current spreads between January - March, March - May, May - July, July - September, September - November, and November - January were 2,945 yuan, -1,070 yuan, -880 yuan, -965 yuan, 45 yuan, and -75 yuan respectively, compared with the previous values of 2,790 yuan, -910 yuan, -820 yuan, -995 yuan, 40 yuan, and -105 yuan respectively [2]. Spot Market - **Prices**: The current spot prices in Henan, Sichuan, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Liaoning were 10.99 yuan/kg, 10.87 yuan/kg, 10.77 yuan/kg, 11.21 yuan/kg, 10.52 yuan/kg, and 10.45 yuan/kg respectively, with decreases of 0.08 yuan, -21.97 yuan, -0.15 yuan, -0.27 yuan, -0.18 yuan, and -0.12 yuan respectively compared with the previous values [2]. Warehouse Receipts - The number of warehouse receipts was 1,156, with no change compared with the previous two days [2].