中国氨基酸与饲料原料应用研讨会 据博亚和讯监测，2026年2月26日全国外三元生猪均价为10.81元/kg，较昨日上涨0.06元/kg；仔猪均价 为25.42元/kg，较昨日下跌0.01元/kg；白条肉均价15.10元/kg，较昨日下跌0.15元/kg；今日猪料比为 3.24:1，较昨日增加0.02。 今日猪价震荡调整，全国均价微涨0.06元/kg。近期猪价持续下行，刺激散户抄底二次育肥行为增加， 同时前期下跌导致自繁自养亏损加剧，外购养殖仅维持微利，部分规模场选择缩量挺价、散户扛价情绪 升温，共同推动猪价企稳。短期来看，在情绪与二育入场支撑下，猪价下跌空间有限，预计将保持低位 震荡，同时南北价差将逐步收窄。今日市场情绪看稳、看涨并存，预计明日猪价稳中偏强调整，关注近 期二育入场情况。 会议聚焦 来源：市场资讯 （来源：博亚和讯） | 神区 | 日前 | | 外三元生猪价格(元/kg) | | | 外三元.仔猪(元/kg.20kg体重) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2026年 | 2月25日 | 2月26日 | 趋势 | ...

评 论 及 策 略 生猪期货主力合约LH2605震荡收涨1.55%至11465元/吨，期现价差维持高位。然而，现货市场 承压下行，全国外三元生猪出栏均价跌至10.74元/公斤。春节后市场呈现供强需弱格局：养 殖端出栏积极性高涨，重点企业出栏量环比增近15%；而终端消费以消化节日库存为主，需求 支撑不足，屠宰量虽有回升但难以消化供给压力。此外，养殖端亏损加剧，自繁自养头均亏 损逾150元。综合来看，现货市场在供给释放与需求疲软的双重压力下短期偏弱运行，需关注 后续出栏节奏与消费恢复情况。 免 责 声 明 本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货交易咨询业务资格 （核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284号） 研究局限性和风险提示 报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性，对未来预测存在不及预期，以及宏观环境和产业链影响因素存在不确定性变化等风险。 分析师声明 作者具有期货交易咨询执业资格，保证报告所采用的数据均来自合规渠道，分析逻辑基于作者的职业理解，本报告清晰准确地 反映了作者的研究观点，力求独立、客观和公正，结论不受任何第三方的授意或影响，作者及利益相关方不曾因也将不会因本 报告中的具体推荐意见或观点而直接或间接获取任何形式的不 ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：博亚和讯） | 座区 | 日前 | | 外三元生猪价格(元/kg) | | | 外三元.仔猪(元/kg.20kg体重) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2026年 | 2月24日 | 2月25日 | 趋势 | 2月24日 | 2月25日 | 趋势 | | | 黑龙江 | 10.71 | 10.41 | 7 | 24.55 | 24.40 | 1 | | 东北 | 吉林 | 10.60 | 10.45 | 7 | 24.51 | 24.36 | 1 | | | 辽宁 | 10.80 | 10.65 | 1 | 24.51 | 24.51 | → | | | 北京 | 10.85 | 10.80 | V | 25.71 | 25.71 | -> | | | 天津 | 10.85 | 10.80 | 1 | 25.71 | 25.71 | → | | स्रू ने | 河北 | 10.86 | 10.81 | 7 | 25.53 | 25.53 | 1 | | | 山西 | 10.65 | 10.60 | ...

申银万国期货研究所 戴鸿绪 （从业编号F03153282 交易咨询号Z0023729） 评 论 及 策 略 生猪市场整体呈现供强需弱格局。主力合约LH2605收盘报11265元/吨，下跌255元/吨，跌幅 2.21%。现货方面，全国外三元生猪出栏均价为10.92元/公斤，较昨日下跌0.26元/公斤，各 地价格普遍偏弱调整。供需层面，重点养殖企业出栏量达21.93万头，环比上涨8.15%；屠宰 企业屠宰量9.88万头，环比大幅上调20.89%，显示供应压力集中释放。与此同时，养殖端亏 损持续，其中自繁自养头均亏损135.59元，外购仔猪模式亏损71.54元/头，行业整体承压。 短期来看，市场处于节后供应恢复、消费相对平淡的阶段，若需求端无明显提振，猪价或延 续弱势震荡走势。 | | | | | daihx@sywgqh.com.cn | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 生猪（LH） | | | | | | 1月 | 3月 | 5月 | 7月 | 9月 | 11月 | | | 前日收盘价 | 13145 | 1 ...

Group 1 - The average price of external three-yuan live pigs in China on February 6, 2026, is 12.14 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous day [1] - The average price of piglets is 25.54 yuan/kg, up by 0.01 yuan/kg compared to the previous day [1] - The average price of white strip meat is 16.66 yuan/kg, which has increased by 0.07 yuan/kg from the previous day [1] Group 2 - The market sentiment is improving due to pre-holiday stocking expectations, leading to increased purchasing activity from slaughter enterprises [2] - There is a widening price gap between northern and southern regions, which is causing an increase in the transfer of pig sources from the north to the south [2] - Short-term expectations indicate an increase in the output from large-scale farms, but the overall upward momentum for pig prices remains limited due to pressure in high-price areas [2]

申万期货品种策略日报-生猪（LH） | | | | | daihx@sywgqh.com.cn | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 生猪（LH） | | | | | | 1月 | 3月 | 5月 | 7月 | 9月 | 11月 | | | 前日收盘价 | 13355 | 11150 | 11735 | 12295 | 13210 | 13130 | | | 前2日收盘价 | 13255 | 11160 | 11600 | 12170 | 13055 | 12960 | | 期 | 涨跌 | 100 | -10 | 135 | 125 | 155 | 170 | | 货 | 涨跌幅 | 0.75% | -0.09% | 1.16% | 1.03% | 1.19% | 1.31% | | 市 | 成交量 | 525 | 29122 | 70275 | 7444 | 8803 | 3263 | | 场 | 持仓量 | 1783 | 83841 | 145975 | 50455 | 37066 | 22210 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1][41]. Core Insights - The SW agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry slightly underperformed the CSI 300 index, with a decline of 0.07% from January 16 to January 29, 2026, lagging behind the index by approximately 0.12 percentage points [3][10]. - Most sub-sectors recorded positive returns during the same period, with notable increases in planting (9.25%), animal health (4.71%), agricultural product processing (4.12%), and fishery (1.82%), while feed and breeding sectors saw declines of 0.02% and 2.84%, respectively [3][13][14]. - The overall price-to-book (PB) ratio for the industry was approximately 2.66 times as of January 29, 2026, indicating that the industry is at a relatively low valuation level compared to historical averages, positioned at about 59.9% of the valuation center since 2006 [3][18]. Industry Key Data - **Pig Farming**: - The average price of external three yuan pigs fluctuated from 12.76 CNY/kg to 13.24 CNY/kg before dropping to 12.52 CNY/kg during the reporting period [3][22]. - The breeding sow inventory reached 39.61 million heads by the end of December 2025, a decrease of 0.73% from the previous month, remaining within the normal range of 39 million heads [3][22]. - The profit from self-bred pigs was 25.1 CNY/head, while the profit from purchased piglets was 124.13 CNY/head, both maintaining positive profitability [3][26]. - **Poultry Farming**: - The average price of broiler chicks was 2.31 CNY/chick, showing a slight decrease, while the average price for layer chicks was 3.2 CNY/chick, which saw a minor increase [3][28]. - The average price for white feather broilers was 7.74 CNY/kg, with a profit of 0.39 CNY/chick, indicating a recovery in profitability [3][32]. - **Aquaculture**: - The average wholesale price for crucian carp and carp was stable, with prices at 19.4 CNY/kg and 13.88 CNY/kg, respectively, showing slight increases [3][33]. Industry Important News - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a meeting to discuss stabilizing beef production and alleviating dairy industry challenges, emphasizing the need for effective policies to support these sectors [3][35]. - A meeting was also held to coordinate efforts in the seed industry revitalization action, focusing on enhancing domestic seed security and promoting technological independence [3][38]. Company Highlights - Key companies to watch include: - Muyuan Foods (牧原股份, 002714): A leading player in pig farming with cost and scale advantages [3][42]. - Haida Group (海大集团, 002311): A leading feed company expected to maintain steady market share growth [3][42]. - Shengnong Development (圣农发展, 002299): A leader in the white feather broiler industry with advantages in seed sources [3][42]. - Reap Bio (瑞普生物, 300119): A leader in the animal health sector with a growing product matrix for pet health [3][42]. - Longping High-Tech (隆平高科, 000998): A leading seed company with advanced transgenic reserves [3][42].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1][46] Core Insights - The profitability of pig farming has shown signs of recovery, with self-breeding pig farming profits turning positive [30] - The industry has slightly underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, with a decline of 0.72% from January 5 to January 15, 2026, lagging behind the index by approximately 3.34 percentage points [14] - The report highlights the potential for price recovery in pig farming due to seasonal demand, and emphasizes the importance of capacity reduction in the breeding sector [46][48] Industry Performance Overview - The SW agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry index has a current PB ratio of approximately 2.63, indicating a slight decline in valuation and positioning at about 59.2% of the historical average since 2006 [21] - Among the sub-sectors, animal health, fishery, agricultural product processing, and planting recorded positive returns, with increases of 8.52%, 4.59%, 1.77%, and 0.45% respectively, while feed and breeding sectors saw declines of 0.99% and 2.34% [17][18] Key Industry Data - The average price of external three-breed pigs fluctuated from 12.86 CNY/kg to 12.48 CNY/kg and then rebounded to 12.76 CNY/kg between January 2 and January 15, 2026 [22] - As of January 15, 2026, the average price of corn was 2363.82 CNY/ton and soybean meal was 3184 CNY/ton, both showing a recent increase [27] - The profit for self-breeding pig farming reached 7.39 CNY/head, while the profit for purchased pig farming was 48.35 CNY/head, indicating a shift from loss to profit [30] Company Insights - Key companies to watch include Muyuan Foods (002714), Wens Foodstuff Group (300498), and Shengnong Development (002299), which are positioned well for potential growth in the sector [48][49] - The report notes that the domestic pet market has growth potential, with exports expected to maintain rapid growth, highlighting opportunities in leading domestic companies [48]

Report Overview - Research Variety: Live pigs - Report Type: Daily report - Date: January 13, 2026 [1] 1. Futures Market - The opening price of the main contract LH2603 of live pig futures was 11,735 yuan/ton, the highest price was 11,840 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 11,730 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,795 yuan/ton, with a change of 0.08%. The trading volume was 57,954 lots, and the turnover was 10.937 billion yuan, indicating active market trading [2] 2. Spot Market - The daily basis was 1,085 yuan/ton, with a basis rate of 8.42%. The basis widened slightly compared to the previous trading day, indicating that the spot price still supported the futures [4] 3. Influencing Factors - Stable average slaughter weight: The average slaughter weight of external ternary live pigs nationwide was 123.32 kg, at a relatively high level in the same period of history. There was no significant reduction in supply, but the marginal demand for large-weight pigs improved [5] - Increased reluctance to sell among farmers: Affected by low-temperature weather, the market demand for large-weight pigs increased, and some farmers held back on sales, slowing the short-term supply rhythm [6] - No significant increase in consumption: After New Year's Day, the fresh sales demand weakened, the cured meat consumption was coming to an end, and the Spring Festival in 2026 was late (February 17). The centralized stocking had not started yet, and the terminal digestion capacity was limited [6] 4. Market Outlook - The LH2603 contract is expected to fluctuate within a range. The upward drivers come from the rigidity of spot prices and the expectation of capacity reduction, while the downward pressure stems from the high inventory level and the uncertainty of feed costs. Attention should be paid to the spot price trend in mid-to-late January, the latest data on the inventory of breeding sows, and the changes in feed prices [7]

Group 1 - The average price of external three yuan live pigs in China on January 15, 2026, is 12.76 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous day [1] - The average price of piglets is 21.87 yuan/kg, up by 0.21 yuan/kg compared to the previous day [1] - The average price of white strip meat is 16.97 yuan/kg, with a slight increase of 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous day [1] Group 2 - The northern farming sector shows a general sentiment of price support, contributing to a stable and slightly strong market performance [2] - In southern regions, there is a slight increase in the number of pigs being sold, leading to some areas experiencing price reductions due to decreased acceptance from slaughter enterprises [2] - A new round of cold and snowy weather is expected in the north, which may boost consumption and support short-term price increases [2]