Group 1 - The average price of external three yuan live pigs in China increased to 11.66 yuan/kg on November 19, 2025, up by 0.07 yuan/kg from the previous day [1][2] - The average price of piglets rose to 19.12 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.01 yuan/kg, while the average price of white strip meat reached 15.49 yuan/kg, up by 0.02 yuan/kg [1][2] - The pig feed-to-meat ratio is now 3.50:1, which is an increase of 0.02 from the previous day [1] Group 2 - The northern pig prices generally experienced slight increases, while the southern market remained stable, contributing to the national average price rise [2][3] - The recent drop in temperatures has led to a slight recovery in terminal consumption, with an increase in slaughterhouse operating rates, boosting the optimism among breeders [2] - Despite the upward trend in prices, the overall supply of live pigs in November remains relatively high, and demand growth is limited, indicating that the price increase is largely driven by sentiment rather than fundamental supply-demand dynamics [2][3]

新华财经北京11月18日电据国家级生猪大数据中心18日发布，监测显示，今日（2025年11月18日），31 个省（自治区、直辖市）外三元生猪价格1涨10跌20平，呈稳中下跌趋势。 分析来看，今日养殖端出栏积极性一般，气温下降后需求没有明显好转，屠企多压价按需采购，部分集 团场降价出栏，采购基本无难度，但仍有部分养殖端挺价惜售，预计明日价格上涨。 （文章来源：新华财经） 具体价格监测情况显示，18日全国生猪均价为11.56元／公斤，较前一日下跌0.03元／公斤。重庆市肉品 供给指数显示，今日肉品供给比昨日上涨3.43%。北京市白条猪批发交易量为59.12万公斤，较昨日下跌 0.29%。 外三元生猪价差监测显示，今日全国21组大区间平均价差约0.47元／公斤，较昨日下跌0.01元／公斤， 低于平均调运成本0.58元／公斤。 ...

据国家级生猪大数据中心18日发布，监测显示，今日（2025年11月18日），31个省（自治区、直辖市） 外三元生猪价格1涨10跌20平，呈稳中下跌趋势。 具体价格监测情况显示，18日全国生猪均价为11.56元／公斤，较前一日下跌0.03元／公斤。重庆市肉品 供给指数显示，今日肉品供给比昨日上涨3.43%。北京市白条猪批发交易量为59.12万公斤，较昨日下跌 0.29%。 外三元生猪价差监测显示，今日全国21组大区间平均价差约0.47元／公斤，较昨日下跌0.01元／公斤， 低于平均调运成本0.58元／公斤。 分析来看，今日养殖端出栏积极性一般，气温下降后需求没有明显好转，屠企多压价按需采购，部分集 团场降价出栏，采购基本无难度，但仍有部分养殖端挺价惜售，预计明日价格上涨。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

Core Insights - The average price of external three yuan live pigs in China increased by 0.02 yuan/kg to 11.59 yuan/kg on November 18, 2025, while the average price of piglets rose by 0.03 yuan/kg to 19.11 yuan/kg [1][2] - The market sentiment is mixed, with some regions experiencing slight price adjustments, but overall, the market remains in a "strong supply, weak demand" situation [2] Price Trends - The average price of external three yuan live pigs across various regions shows slight increases, with notable prices including: - Heilongjiang: 11.71 yuan/kg - Guangdong: 12.21 yuan/kg - Shanghai: 11.95 yuan/kg [1] - The average price of piglets also varies by region, with the highest price in Guangdong at 20.28 yuan/kg [1] Market Dynamics - The recent drop in temperatures has led to increased optimism among farmers, with some engaging in limited curing activities in southern regions [2] - Despite the positive sentiment, overall consumption remains weak, impacting the sustainability of price increases [2] - The risk of disease in pig herds is rising with the temperature drop, which may lead to earlier market exits by farmers for disease control [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [48]. Core Viewpoints - The SW agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry outperformed the CSI 300 index, rising by 4.87% from October 31, 2025, to November 13, 2025, exceeding the index by approximately 5.04 percentage points [11]. - All sub-sectors within the industry recorded positive returns during the same period, with notable increases in agricultural product processing (9.03%), fishery (8.12%), animal health (5.57%), planting (4.57%), breeding (2.94%), and feed (2.45%) [12]. - Over 90% of individual stocks in the industry achieved positive returns, indicating strong overall market performance [13]. - The industry valuation has rebounded, with the overall price-to-book (PB) ratio at approximately 2.94 times as of November 13, 2025, which is still relatively low compared to historical levels [17]. Industry Important Data - **Pig Farming**: The average price of external three yuan pigs decreased from 12.52 CNY/kg to 11.74 CNY/kg during the reporting period. The cost of corn and soybean meal showed fluctuations, with corn priced at 2260.39 CNY/ton and soybean meal at 3072 CNY/ton as of November 13, 2025 [21][23]. - **Profitability**: As of November 14, 2025, self-breeding pig farming reported a loss of 114.81 CNY per head, while purchasing piglets resulted in a loss of 205.64 CNY per head, indicating a decline in profitability [26]. - **Poultry Farming**: The average price of broiler chicks was 3.49 CNY per chick, slightly down from the previous week, while the average price of white feather broilers increased to 7.12 CNY/kg, with a loss of 0.95 CNY per bird [28][31]. Industry Important News - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasized accelerating the self-reliance and controllability of seed technology during a recent meeting, highlighting the importance of domestic seed sources and innovation in the seed industry [35]. Company Important News - Key companies to watch include Muyuan Foods (002714), Wens Foodstuff Group (300498), and others, which are positioned to benefit from industry trends and potential recovery in profitability [48][49].

Group 1 - The national average price of live pigs today is 10.91 yuan/kg, showing a slight increase of 0.01 yuan/kg compared to yesterday [1] - The supply index for meat in Chongqing has increased by 3.08% compared to yesterday [1] - The wholesale trading volume of pork in Beijing is 575,900 kg, which is an increase of 5.38% from the previous day [1] Group 2 - The average price difference for external three-yuan pigs across 21 major regions is approximately 0.53 yuan/kg, down by 0.01 yuan/kg from yesterday, which is below the average transportation cost of 0.52 yuan/kg [3] - The overall national pig market is experiencing a trend of rising prices in the north and falling prices in the south, with northern regions supported by farmers holding back sales and new entrants, while southern regions face supply pressure leading to price declines [3] - The national average pig price remains below 11 yuan/kg, indicating a low-level fluctuation, with expectations for prices to stabilize tomorrow [3]

Core Insights - The national average price of live pigs in China has shown a downward trend, with a current price of 11.35 yuan per kilogram, down by 0.31 yuan from the previous day [1] - The supply of meat has increased, as indicated by a 3.93% rise in the meat supply index in Chongqing [1] - The average price difference for external three-yuan pigs across 21 major regions has decreased to approximately 0.54 yuan per kilogram, which is below the average transportation cost of 0.51 yuan per kilogram [3] Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply has increased due to some group enterprises failing to meet pre-holiday slaughter plans, leading to a rise in pig outflow post-holiday [3] - Demand has weakened significantly after the holiday, with terminal sales slowing down, compounded by adverse weather conditions affecting consumption in both southern and northern regions [3] - The market is expected to maintain a weak and stable price trend in the near future [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates a downward trend in pig prices across China, with 27 provinces reporting price drops on October 9, 2025, and an average national price of 11.67 yuan per kilogram, down 0.20 yuan from the previous day [1][3] - The average price difference for external three-way pigs across 21 major regions is approximately 0.56 yuan per kilogram, remaining stable compared to the previous day, but below the average transportation cost of 0.49 yuan per kilogram [1] - The market is under pressure due to a combination of concentrated supply release post-holiday and a decline in consumer demand, with most provinces seeing prices drop below 12 yuan per kilogram, leading to a prevailing bearish sentiment [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [42] Core Viewpoints - Recent declines in pig prices and continuous profit decreases for breeding companies will force upstream breeding sows to reduce stock. The current stock of breeding sows remains relatively high, indicating significant potential for future reduction. The valuation of pig breeding companies is still at a historically low level, presenting an opportunity for investment based on capacity reduction expectations. In the chicken breeding sector, overall capacity is relatively high, and profitability remains under pressure. There is a potential for capacity reduction in the future, with attention to marginal profit improvement opportunities. In the feed sector, opportunities arise from increased market concentration and overseas expansion. The domestic pet market still has expansion potential, with leading domestic companies expected to maintain rapid growth [42][43] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The SW agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry slightly underperformed the CSI 300 index, declining by 5.07% from September 12 to September 25, 2025, lagging behind the index by approximately 6.07 percentage points [10] - All sub-sectors recorded negative returns during this period, with declines of 2.89% in planting, 3.59% in animal health, 4.36% in feed, 5.32% in agricultural product processing, 5.95% in breeding, and 6.73% in fisheries [13][14] 2. Industry Key Data - **Pig Farming**: The average price of external three-way cross pigs fell from 13.31 CNY/kg to 12.51 CNY/kg during the reporting period. The cost of corn was 2365.1 CNY/ton, and soybean meal was 3002 CNY/ton, both showing slight declines. As of September 26, 2025, the profit for self-bred pigs was -74.11 CNY/head, and for purchased piglets, it was -236.57 CNY/head, indicating a decrease in profitability [22][24][27] - **Poultry Farming**: The average price of broiler chicks was 3.29 CNY/chick, showing a slight increase, while the average price of white feather broilers was 6.9 CNY/kg, reflecting a slight decline. The profit for white feather broilers was -2.22 CNY/chick, also indicating a decrease [29][33] - **Aquaculture**: The average wholesale prices for crucian carp and carp were 21.09 CNY/kg and 14.2 CNY/kg, respectively, both showing slight declines [35] 3. Industry News - Argentina announced a temporary zero-export tax on agricultural products, effective from September 23, 2025, until October 31, or until exports reach 7 billion USD. This measure aims to address domestic foreign exchange pressures and currency devaluation, significantly lowering export costs and enhancing competitiveness in the global market [37]

Core Insights - The national average price of live pigs in China is showing a downward trend, with a current price of 13.41 yuan per kilogram, down by 0.10 yuan from the previous day [1] - The wholesale trading volume of pork in Beijing has decreased by 3.23%, totaling 53.62 million kilograms [1] - The price difference for external three-yuan pigs has also decreased, with an average price difference of approximately 0.51 yuan per kilogram, which is below the average transportation cost of 0.54 yuan per kilogram [3] Market Analysis - The increase in pig output from farms is noted, with group farms accelerating their sales and a concentration of second breeding releases, leading to an oversupply situation [3] - Slaughter enterprises are showing a strong willingness to lower prices, resulting in increased losses for farmers [3] - Despite policy discussions on capacity regulation, market sentiment remains bearish, with expectations of further price declines in the coming days [3]