在线上的出 2026 年 01 月 12 日 别配额及配额外关税落地 --- 农林牧渔周 观点 (2025.12.29-2026.01.04)》 2026/01/05 《二育进场猪价反弹；宠物新国货大会召 开 -- 农林牧渔周观点 (2025.12.22- 2025.12.28)》 2025/12/28 证券分析师 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 册分歧式行 风险提示：生猪、肉鸡价格持续低迷：宠物食品自主品牌销售不及预期；养殖疫情爆发。 朱珺逸 A0230521080004 zhujy@swsresearch.com 胡静航 A0230524090002 hujh@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱珺逸 A0230521080004 zhujy@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 猪价反弹后趋稳延续强势,关注宠物行业自皮 书发布 — 农林牧渔周观点（2026.01.05-2026.01.11） 本期投资提示: 若研究报 相关研究 《元旦猪价反弹后回落，关注牛肉进口国 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本周申万农林牧渔指 ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "left-side investment opportunity" in the pig farming sector, indicating a positive outlook despite current challenges [5][6]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index increased by 0.3%, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose by 1.9%. Notable stock performances included Shen Nong Technology (up 35.7%) and Guotou Zhonglu (up 20.8%) [5][6]. - The pig price rebounded significantly due to the re-entry of the second batch of fattening pigs and increased retail demand as the year-end approaches. However, the report suggests that this price increase may not be sustainable in the coming quarters [5][6]. - The pet sector is experiencing a valuation shift as the year-end approaches, with a focus on companies like Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff, and others [5][6]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The average selling price of the national external three yuan pigs was 12.21 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 7.0%. The price surge is attributed to the re-entry of fattening pigs and a decrease in supply [5][6]. - The report indicates that the industry remains below the breakeven line, with losses reported for small-scale and medium-scale operations. The outlook for the next 1-2 quarters suggests a bottoming out of prices, with ongoing capacity reduction [5][6]. Pet Industry - The seventh Pet New National Goods Conference was held, revealing that the Chinese pet market is expected to reach a size of 154.5 to 160 billion yuan in 2025. The market is characterized by channel differentiation and a focus on specific product categories [5][6]. - Ruipai Pet Hospital submitted an application for an IPO, aiming to become the first publicly listed pet hospital in China [5][6]. Meat Chicken Farming - The average selling price of white feather broiler chicks was 3.37 yuan/chick, with a slight decrease of 0.6% week-on-week. The price of white feather broiler meat reached a new high of 3.80 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 4.7% [5][6]. Beef Industry - The prices of beef and cattle have slightly decreased, with the average price of fattened bulls at 25.47 yuan/kg, down 0.24% week-on-week [5][6].

来源：市场资讯 （来源：博亚和讯） | 座区 | 日前 | | 外三元生猪价格(元/kg) | | | 外三元.仔猪(元/kg.20kg体重) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2025年 | 12月22日 | 12月23日 | 趋势 | 12月22日 | 12月23日 | 趋势 | | | 黑龙江 | 11.11 | 11.21 | 7 | 17.10 | 17.10 | -> | | 东北 | 吉林 | 11.00 | 11.25 | 7 | 17.06 | 17.06 | - | | | 辽宁 | 11.30 | 11.35 | 1 | 17.21 | 17.10 | 7 | | | 北京 | 11.90 | 11.75 | 7 | 18.98 | 18.98 | -> | | | 天津 | 11.90 | 11.75 | 7 | 18.94 | 18.94 | → | | स्रूनी | 河北 | 11.86 | 11.71 | 7 | 18.90 | 18.90 | → | | | 山西 | 11.60 | 11.5 ...

国家级生猪大数据中心监测显示，2025年12月15日，31个省（自治区、直辖市）外三元生猪价格6涨7跌 18平，呈稳中下跌趋势。 价格监测情况显示，12月15日，全国生猪均价为11.56元／公斤，较昨日持平。重庆市肉品供给指数显 示，今日肉品供给比昨日上涨4.33%。北京市白条猪批发交易量为61.27万公斤，较昨日上涨5.20%。 外三元生猪价差监测显示，今日全国21组大区间平均价差约0.40元／公斤，较昨日上涨0.05元／公斤， 低于平均调运成本0.65元／公斤。 分析来看，受寒潮影响，部分集团场挺价出栏；需求端季节性改善，屠企订单量增多，采购积极，开工 率上涨。但需求增量未达预期，旺季不旺，猪价缺乏明显上涨动力，预计明日价格保持稳定。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

Group 1: Swine Breeding Industry - The swine breeding sector is experiencing intensified losses, with the average loss per head for self-breeding sows exceeding 120 CNY [1] - As of December 14, the national average selling price of external three-yuan pigs is 11.54 CNY/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2.9% [1] - The losses are expected to continue, with self-breeding sows under 50 heads facing an average loss of approximately 128.3 CNY per head, and those with 5000-10000 heads facing about 146.5 CNY per head [1] - The industry is likely to see accelerated capacity reduction due to the ongoing losses and seasonal disease outbreaks [1] - Recommended stocks for left-side investment opportunities include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, Dekang Agriculture, and Tiankang Biological [1] Group 2: Pet Food Industry - The pet food industry continues to show growth, with online GMV for October-November increasing by 17% year-on-year [2] - The combined sales for Tmall, JD, and Douyin platforms in October-November reached 7.02 billion CNY, reflecting a 17% year-on-year increase [2] - Notable growth in specific brands includes a 40% increase for Guibao Pet, and 76% for Zhongchong Co., with individual products showing significant year-on-year growth [2] Group 3: Broiler Chicken Industry - The price of broiler chickens has seen a slight rebound, with the average selling price of broiler chicks at 3.33 CNY per chick, up 1.22% week-on-week [3] - The average selling price of broiler meat is 3.57 CNY/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.85% [3] - The industry is expected to maintain a focus on leading enterprises and long-term value, with an emphasis on demand-side improvements [3] Group 4: Beef Industry - Prices for beef and calves have shown slight increases, with the average price for fattened bulls at 25.56 CNY/kg, up 0.08% week-on-week [4] - The average price for calves is 32.12 CNY/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.09% [4] - However, the wholesale market price for beef has decreased to 66.17 CNY/kg, down 0.59% week-on-week [4]

猪价也随之反弹，根据博亚和讯，12月12日全国外三元生猪均价为11.48元/kg，周环比上涨2.5%，但总 体仍处于低位；15公斤仔猪均价19.04元/公斤，周环比下降1.14%。 低猪价下，养殖端延续亏损，行业自繁自养与外购仔猪模式分别录得每头146元和75元的亏损，且为第 11周的全行业亏损。 12月15日，猪肉股早盘走强，截至发稿，畜牧养殖ETF（516670）涨1.56%，盘中成交额较前一日放 大，成份股正邦科技、天康生物涨超7%，牧原股份、温氏股份、海大集团涨超1%。 进入12月传统腌腊旺季，季节性消费带来一定提振，12月12日当周，样本屠宰企业日均屠宰量环比增加 3.76%。 畜牧养殖ETF（516670）跟踪的中证畜牧养殖指数覆盖生猪养殖产业链，根据历史表现，在供需关系驱 动下，畜牧养殖板块呈现明显的周期性，整体和猪价变化相关性较强。值得关注的是，根据基金合同， 畜牧养殖ETF（516670）管理费率为0.2%/年，相对同指数ETF品种更低。 风险提示：基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 东方证券指出，参考历史经验，肥猪与仔猪价格同低阶段，行业大概率开启市场化去产能。此外，政策 端也在持续强化对头部集团场 ...

Core Insights - The overall price of external three yuan pigs in China increased by 0.05 yuan/kg to 11.38 yuan/kg on December 10, 2025, while the average price of piglets decreased by 0.05 yuan/kg to 19.07 yuan/kg [1][2] - The market sentiment is cautiously optimistic due to recovering consumption in both northern and southern regions, alongside expectations of increased supply pressure as large-scale farms aim to meet annual slaughter targets [2][3] Price Trends - The average price of external three yuan pigs across various regions shows slight increases or stability, with notable price changes in specific areas such as Liaoning (+0.10 yuan/kg) and Sichuan (+0.20 yuan/kg) [1] - The average price of white strip meat rose by 0.01 yuan/kg to 15.06 yuan/kg, indicating a slight upward trend in meat prices [1] Market Dynamics - The market is experiencing a mixed sentiment with expectations of both price increases and decreases, influenced by weather changes and consumer demand [2][3] - The pig feed ratio is reported at 3.43:1, which has increased by 0.02 from the previous day, reflecting changes in feed costs [1]

持窄幅震荡调整。今日市场情绪看稳、看涨、看跌并存，预计明日猪价涨跌调整，关注规模场出栏节奏 与疫病发展情况。 据博亚和讯监测，2025年12月9日全国外三元生猪均价为11.32元/kg，较昨日上涨0.04元/kg；仔猪均价 为19.12元/kg，较昨日下跌0.07元/kg；白条肉均价15.05元/kg，较昨日下跌0.03元/kg；今日猪料比为 3.41:1，较昨日增加0.01。 今日猪价延续震荡偏强走势，北方地区跌势趋缓企稳，仅东北等局部仍现微幅下调，南方地区稳中偏强 调整，全国均价上涨0.04元/kg。近期猪价处于低位，随着天气转冷，南方腌腊需求逐步增加，对市场 情绪形成提振，华南、西南等地猪价上涨较为明显；北方地区虽家庭消费亦有增长，但近期疫病风险有 所抬头，促使养殖端出栏积极性增强，市场呈现供需双增格局，制约猪价上涨空间。短期来看，气温下 降及冬至等节日临近将继续利好消费端，但伴随需求回暖，供应端亦有加速出栏的迹象，预计猪价将保 来源：市场资讯 （来源：博亚和讯） | 地区 | 日前 | | 外三元生猪价格(元/kg) | | | 外三元.仔猪(元/kg.20kg体重) | | | --- | --- ...

Group 1 - The average price of external three yuan live pigs in China on December 5, 2025, is 11.20 yuan/kg, a slight decrease of 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous day [1] - The average price of piglets is 19.26 yuan/kg, which increased by 0.01 yuan/kg compared to the previous day [1] - The average price of white strip meat is 15.11 yuan/kg, down by 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous day [1] Group 2 - Prices in North China, Northwest, and East China are stabilizing and showing slight increases, while South China and Southwest regions are experiencing narrow declines [2] - The supply side is characterized by a reluctance to sell and a hopeful sentiment for price increases, supporting the stabilization of prices in the northern regions [2] - The overall market sentiment is mixed, with expectations for tomorrow's prices to remain in a narrow range of fluctuations [3]

Group 1 - The average price of external three yuan live pigs in China on December 3, 2025, is 11.28 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.11 yuan/kg from the previous day [1] - The average price of piglets is 19.24 yuan/kg, which has increased by 0.01 yuan/kg compared to the previous day [1] - The average price of white strip meat is 15.18 yuan/kg, down by 0.07 yuan/kg from the previous day [1] Group 2 - The overall market for pig prices is experiencing a weak adjustment, with a nationwide average decline of 0.11 yuan/kg, and some regions like Guizhou and Xinjiang have fallen below 11 yuan/kg [2] - Despite a slight recovery in terminal demand due to falling temperatures, the overall market remains under pressure due to a relaxed supply of live pigs [2] - The sentiment in the market is mixed, with expectations of a narrow fluctuation in pig prices in the short term, influenced by the rhythm of large-scale farm sales and the development of winter disease [3]