供应方面，部分集团企业因节前出栏计划完成不佳，导致节后供应放量，今日生猪出栏量上涨；需求方 面，双节集中备货后，节后终端走货明显放缓，同时，南方高温和北方降雨天气也抑制了消费需求的释 放，预计明日价格维持弱势稳定。 外三元生猪价差监测显示，今日全国21组大区间平均价差约0.54元／公斤，较昨日下跌0.02元／公斤， 低于平均调运成本0.51元／公斤。 国家级生猪大数据中心监测显示，2025年10月10日，31个省（自治区、直辖市）外三元生猪价格0涨28 跌3平，呈下跌趋势。价格监测情况显示，10月10日，全国生猪均价为11.35元／公斤，较昨日下跌0.31 元／公斤。重庆市肉品供给指数显示，10日肉品供给比昨日上涨3.93%。北京市白条猪批发交易量为 50.83万公斤，较昨日上涨0.61%。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

分析来看，生猪市场在节后供应集中释放和消费惯性回落的双重压力下弱势运行。能繁母猪存栏仍处于 高位，产能去化缓慢，绝大部分省份猪价已跌破12元／公斤，市场整体承压明显，看空情绪浓厚，预计 明日价格下跌。 （文章来源：新华财经） 国家级生猪大数据中心监测显示，2025年10月9日，31个省（自治区、直辖市）外三元生猪价格0涨27跌 4平，呈下跌趋势。价格监测情况显示，当日全国生猪均价为11.67元／公斤，较前一日下跌0.20元／公 斤。外三元生猪价差监测显示，9日全国21组大区间平均价差约0.56元／公斤，较昨日持平，低于平均 调运成本0.49元／公斤。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [42] Core Viewpoints - Recent declines in pig prices and continuous profit decreases for breeding companies will force upstream breeding sows to reduce stock. The current stock of breeding sows remains relatively high, indicating significant potential for future reduction. The valuation of pig breeding companies is still at a historically low level, presenting an opportunity for investment based on capacity reduction expectations. In the chicken breeding sector, overall capacity is relatively high, and profitability remains under pressure. There is a potential for capacity reduction in the future, with attention to marginal profit improvement opportunities. In the feed sector, opportunities arise from increased market concentration and overseas expansion. The domestic pet market still has expansion potential, with leading domestic companies expected to maintain rapid growth [42][43] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The SW agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry slightly underperformed the CSI 300 index, declining by 5.07% from September 12 to September 25, 2025, lagging behind the index by approximately 6.07 percentage points [10] - All sub-sectors recorded negative returns during this period, with declines of 2.89% in planting, 3.59% in animal health, 4.36% in feed, 5.32% in agricultural product processing, 5.95% in breeding, and 6.73% in fisheries [13][14] 2. Industry Key Data - **Pig Farming**: The average price of external three-way cross pigs fell from 13.31 CNY/kg to 12.51 CNY/kg during the reporting period. The cost of corn was 2365.1 CNY/ton, and soybean meal was 3002 CNY/ton, both showing slight declines. As of September 26, 2025, the profit for self-bred pigs was -74.11 CNY/head, and for purchased piglets, it was -236.57 CNY/head, indicating a decrease in profitability [22][24][27] - **Poultry Farming**: The average price of broiler chicks was 3.29 CNY/chick, showing a slight increase, while the average price of white feather broilers was 6.9 CNY/kg, reflecting a slight decline. The profit for white feather broilers was -2.22 CNY/chick, also indicating a decrease [29][33] - **Aquaculture**: The average wholesale prices for crucian carp and carp were 21.09 CNY/kg and 14.2 CNY/kg, respectively, both showing slight declines [35] 3. Industry News - Argentina announced a temporary zero-export tax on agricultural products, effective from September 23, 2025, until October 31, or until exports reach 7 billion USD. This measure aims to address domestic foreign exchange pressures and currency devaluation, significantly lowering export costs and enhancing competitiveness in the global market [37]

Core Insights - The national average price of live pigs in China is showing a downward trend, with a current price of 13.41 yuan per kilogram, down by 0.10 yuan from the previous day [1] - The wholesale trading volume of pork in Beijing has decreased by 3.23%, totaling 53.62 million kilograms [1] - The price difference for external three-yuan pigs has also decreased, with an average price difference of approximately 0.51 yuan per kilogram, which is below the average transportation cost of 0.54 yuan per kilogram [3] Market Analysis - The increase in pig output from farms is noted, with group farms accelerating their sales and a concentration of second breeding releases, leading to an oversupply situation [3] - Slaughter enterprises are showing a strong willingness to lower prices, resulting in increased losses for farmers [3] - Despite policy discussions on capacity regulation, market sentiment remains bearish, with expectations of further price declines in the coming days [3]

Core Viewpoint - The national average price of live pigs in China is experiencing a downward trend, with significant supply-side pressures and weak demand affecting the market [1][3]. Group 1: Price Trends - As of September 15, 2025, the average price of external three-yuan live pigs across 31 provinces is 13.61 yuan per kilogram, down by 0.09 yuan from the previous day [1]. - The price difference for external three-yuan live pigs across 21 major regions has increased to approximately 0.56 yuan per kilogram, up by 0.02 yuan from the previous day, but remains below the average transportation cost of 0.49 yuan per kilogram [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - There is significant pressure on the supply side, with large-scale farms accelerating the sale of pigs and smallholders following suit [3]. - Demand remains weak, with slaughterhouses primarily engaging in price-cutting procurement, leading to sluggish sales of pork products [3]. - Market sentiment is predominantly bearish, although there is a growing reluctance among producers to sell at lower prices, suggesting a potential for continued price declines in the near future [3].

Core Viewpoint - The pig market shows signs of stabilization after a period of continuous decline, with a slight increase in prices observed on September 12, 2025 [1] Price Monitoring - On September 12, the average price of pigs nationwide was 13.72 yuan per kilogram, which is an increase of 0.01 yuan per kilogram compared to the previous day [1] - The price trend indicates a mix of 4 regions experiencing price increases, 7 regions seeing declines, and 20 regions remaining stable, reflecting a downward trend overall [1] Market Analysis - The market is characterized by strong supply and weak demand, with a notable increase in the sentiment of sellers holding back on sales [1] - The upcoming double holiday is expected to trigger some stocking up in demand, but the impact on prices is anticipated to be limited [1] Price Differential - The average price differential for the external three yuan pig price across 21 major regions was approximately 0.49 yuan per kilogram, which is an increase of 0.03 yuan per kilogram from the previous day [1] - This price differential remains below the average transportation cost of 0.56 yuan per kilogram, indicating ongoing supply chain pressures [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the pig and egg markets is "Cautiously Bearish" [3][5] 2. Core Views - For the pig market, although the expected reduction in pig slaughter next week due to short - term supply adjustment may make spot and near - term contract prices firmer, the overall oversupply situation remains unchanged, having little impact on 2026 pig contracts and being favorable for hedging demand to participate at high prices. The current reduction in supply has increased compared to the end of June and July, which needs continuous monitoring [2] - For the egg market, with school stocking completed and tourism and catering demand decreasing, and due to the reduced consumption of end - products of food companies, food companies are purchasing cautiously. The inventory of cold - storage eggs has weakened market confidence, and the supply - side pressure has made the festival boost this year obviously weak [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the live hog 2511 contract yesterday was 13,625 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton (+0.52%) from the previous trading day [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary live hogs was 14.17 yuan/kg (unchanged); in Jiangsu, it was 14.36 yuan/kg, up 0.31 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 13.63 yuan/kg, up 0.20 yuan/kg. The national average wholesale price of pork on September 1 was 20.01 yuan/kg, up 0.4% from last Friday [1] Market Analysis - The short - term supply adjustment may lead to firmer spot and near - term contract prices, but the overall oversupply pattern persists, having little impact on 2026 contracts [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2510 contract yesterday was 2,921 yuan/500 kilograms, down 18 yuan (-0.61%) from the previous trading day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg spot price was 3.20 yuan/jin (unchanged); in Shandong, it was 3.15 yuan/jin (unchanged); in Hebei, it was 2.80 yuan/jin, up 0.09 yuan. On September 1, the national production - link inventory was 0.73 days, down 0.19 days, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.00 days, down 0.05 days [3] Market Analysis - With the end of school stocking and the decline in tourism and catering demand, and the cautious purchasing of food companies, the overall demand is declining. Cold - storage egg inventory has weakened market confidence, and the supply - side pressure has made the festival boost weak [4] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in pig prices and natural rubber prices, highlighting the factors influencing these markets and the implications for supply and demand dynamics [3][4][5]. Group 1: Pig Prices - As of July 25, the average price of external three yuan pigs in China was 14.15 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 0.84%. The average price of 15 kg piglets was 31.89 yuan/kg, down 0.22% week-on-week [3]. - The average weight of market pigs for the week was 128.48 kg, which is a decrease of 0.35 kg week-on-week. The national frozen product inventory rate increased to 14.46%, up 0.1 percentage points [3]. - In June, the average price of market pigs fell to 14.57 yuan/kg, a decrease of 2.3% month-on-month and 20.6% year-on-year. The average price of piglets was 37.25 yuan/kg, down 4.8% month-on-month and 14.5% year-on-year [4]. Group 2: Supply and Production - The number of breeding sows as of the end of June was 40.43 million, showing a slight quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year increase of 0.1% [4]. - In Q2 2025, the total number of pigs slaughtered was 171.43 million, a year-on-year increase of 1.2% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 12%. Pork production reached 14.18 million tons, up 1.4% year-on-year but down 11.5% quarter-on-quarter [4]. - The average profit per pig in June dropped to near the breakeven point, with large-scale farms reporting a profit of 7 yuan per pig, down from 49 yuan in May, while smallholders faced a loss of 6 yuan per pig [4]. Group 3: Natural Rubber Prices - As of July 25, domestic natural rubber futures prices reached 15,455 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 4.14%. Market sentiment remained high due to supply concerns following border conflicts between Thailand and Cambodia [5]. - The inventory of rubber in the Qingdao area was 626,900 tons, a slight decrease of 0.2 tons week-on-week, with general trade inventory at 532,800 tons and bonded zone inventory at 94,100 tons [5].

Group 1 - The average weight of live pigs for slaughter has slightly decreased, reaching a five-month low [1] - As industry expectations decline, some large-scale farms in the south are reducing the weight of pigs for slaughter, but the impact on average weight is limited due to high temperatures affecting both northern and southern regions [1] - According to Mysteel, the average weight of external three yuan live pigs for the week of July 17 was 123.49 kg, a slight decrease of 0.01 kg from the previous week, representing a week-on-week decline of 0.01%, but still showing a year-on-year increase of 0.11% [1]

Group 1 - The data shows a decline in various provinces' values on July 7 compared to July 6, with notable decreases in Jiangxi (-0.41), Fujian (-0.28), and Hunan (-0.22) [2][3] - In contrast, Guangdong province experienced a slight increase of 0.09 on July 7 compared to July 6, indicating a positive trend in that region [3] - Weekly comparisons reveal that most provinces have shown a slight increase compared to the previous week, with notable increases in Anhui (0.19), Zhejiang (0.26), and Fujian (0.58) [2][3] Group 2 - The data indicates that the overall trend in the regions is mixed, with some provinces experiencing declines while others show increases, reflecting regional economic variations [2][3] - The performance of provinces such as Guangdong and Fujian suggests potential areas for investment focus, given their recent positive trends [3]