Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the geopolitical factors affecting methanol futures have diminished, leading to a return to supply and demand fundamentals, with prices for the 2509 contract falling to the range of 2350-2400 yuan/ton [2] Group 2 - Supply pressure is increasing, with domestic coal-based methanol production profit margins remaining high, particularly in the northwest region where profits exceed 35%, and in Shandong and Inner Mongolia where profits range from 30% to 35% [3] - The average operating rate for domestic methanol production reached 78.65% in early July, a significant increase of 7.45 percentage points year-on-year, with weekly production averaging 1.9486 million tons, up by 289,000 tons compared to the same period last year [3] - The methanol market is expected to maintain a loose supply situation due to the release of new production capacity and stable growth in output in the third quarter [3] Group 3 - Methanol imports have rebounded significantly after the resumption of Iranian methanol facilities, with May imports reaching 1.2923 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 50.46% and a year-on-year increase of 21.50% [4] - Despite temporary production cuts in Iranian facilities due to regional conflicts, imports have remained stable, with July imports expected to rise to approximately 1.35 million tons [4] - A five-month accumulation period at ports is anticipated from June to October, indicating a gradual return of import pressure [4] Group 4 - Downstream consumption is entering a traditional off-season, with operating rates for formaldehyde at 29.62%, dimethyl ether at 4.20%, and acetic acid at 98.52%, all showing slight month-on-month declines [5] - The methanol-to-olefins futures market has seen a significant drop in profit margins, falling to -109 yuan/ton, indicating weak demand [5] - Overall, the supply-demand structure is becoming increasingly loose, with expectations for the 2509 methanol futures contract to maintain a weak oscillating trend [5]