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碳中和|构建“能量+容量+辅助服务”多元市场体系
中信证券研究· 2025-05-07 00:32
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the transition of China's electricity market from a "single energy market" to a diversified market that includes "energy + capacity + ancillary services," driven by recent policy developments and market reforms [1][5]. Policy Developments - On April 29, 2025, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the National Energy Administration (NEA) jointly released the "Basic Rules for the Electricity Ancillary Services Market," aiming to enhance the operational mechanisms of the ancillary services market and clarify the construction timeline for the electricity spot market [2][4]. - The NDRC and NEA outlined a roadmap for establishing a unified national electricity market system by early 2025, with a goal of basic completion by 2030 [3]. Market Structure and Transition - The electricity market is evolving towards a model that integrates energy, capacity, and ancillary services, with significant progress in the mid-to-long-term market and ongoing development of the electricity spot market [5][6]. - The ancillary services market is being refined to support the stable operation of the electricity spot market, with rules being established to facilitate their integration [4][6]. Investment Opportunities - The ongoing market reforms are expected to benefit various new entities, such as innovative energy storage solutions and virtual power plants, as well as sectors like electricity IT and inter-provincial transmission infrastructure [1][8]. - The potential revenue sources for energy storage projects are expanding, with expected increases in income from energy markets, ancillary services, and capacity markets as reforms progress [7]. Market Construction Timeline - The construction of the electricity spot market is accelerating, with plans for continuous operation in five regions by 2024, including Inner Mongolia, Shandong, Gansu, Shanxi, and Guangdong [7][9]. - The timeline for the transition to formal operation of the electricity spot market in various provinces has been outlined, with specific deadlines set for regions like Hubei and Zhejiang [3][9]. Conclusion - The article highlights the significant changes in China's electricity market structure and the implications for various stakeholders, indicating a clear trend towards a more integrated and market-driven approach to electricity trading and services [1][5][8].