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思源电气(002028):Q4业绩再超预期,未来的高度更高确定性更强
CMS· 2026-01-18 12:34
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 21.2 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 37%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.16 billion yuan, up 54% year-on-year, exceeding expectations [1][8] - The company's Q4 performance was particularly strong, with revenue and net profit reaching 7.38 billion yuan and 0.971 billion yuan respectively, marking a year-on-year increase of 46% and 74% [8] - The domestic business is expected to benefit from the growth in the 14th Five-Year Plan for power grid investment, with a projected annual compound growth rate of about 7% [8] - The company's overseas business is anticipated to grow significantly, with an estimated 39% of new orders in 2025 coming from international markets, up from approximately 24% in 2023 [8] - New business opportunities are emerging in the energy storage and data center markets, which could serve as new growth drivers for the company [8] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the upcoming cycles in the European and North American power systems, which may yield excellent returns [8] Financial Data and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of 30 billion yuan in 2026, with a year-on-year growth rate of 42% [7][14] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 4.5 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 42% [7][14] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 5.76 yuan in 2026, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 32.3 [7][15] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to increase to 26.3% by 2026 [15]