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伊利股份(600887):25年中报点评:25Q2收入稳中有进,盈利弹性如期兑现
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-08-29 04:24
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" [8] Core Insights - In H1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 61.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.20 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.4%. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 7.02 billion yuan, an increase of 31.8% [1] - The strong growth in ice cream and milk powder cheese revenue in Q2 2025 contributed to overall revenue exceeding expectations [2] - The company's market share in infant formula reached 18.1% in H1 2025, an increase of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, ranking first in the national retail market [3] - The net profit margin improved in Q2 2025 due to increased gross sales difference, reduced spray powder, and decreased credit impairment [4] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 119.01 billion, 122.29 billion, and 124.89 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 11.23 billion, 12.05 billion, and 12.99 billion yuan, indicating a positive growth trend [5] Revenue Breakdown - In H1 2025, revenue from liquid milk, milk powder and dairy products, cold drinks, and other products were 36.13 billion, 16.58 billion, 8.23 billion, and 390 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -2.1%, +14.3%, +12.4%, and -5.1% respectively [2] - In Q2 2025, revenue from liquid milk, milk powder and dairy products, cold drinks, and other products were 16.49 billion, 7.76 billion, 4.12 billion, and 200 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -0.8%, +9.7%, +38.0%, and -3.1% respectively [2] Profitability Metrics - The gross profit margin for H1 2025 was 36.0%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points, while the net profit margin was 11.7%, a decrease of 1.0 percentage points [4] - In Q2 2025, the gross profit margin was 34.2%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points, and the net profit margin was 7.9%, an increase of 2.0 percentage points [4]