公司研究 [公Ta司ble点_Re评po报rtT告ype] [伊Ta利bl股e_份Sto(c6k0A0n8dR8a7n)k] [Table_Author] 赵 雷 食品饮料行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524100003 邮 箱：zhaolei@cindasc.com 证券研究报告 [业Tab绩le_表Titl现e] 稳健，把握低估机遇 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 10 月 31 日 投资评级 买入 上次评级 买入 [T事ab件le：_Su伊mm利ar发y]布 2025 年三季报。2025Q1-3，公司实现营收 905.64 亿 元，同比+1.71%；归母净利润 104.26 亿元，同比-4.07%；扣非归母净利 润 101.03 亿元，同比+18.73%。其中，25Q3 实现营收 286.31 亿元，同 比-1.70%；归母净利润 32.26 亿元，同比-3.35%；扣非归母净利润 30.86 亿元，同比-3.08%。 点评： 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 厦B座 邮编：100031 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www. ...

"压力最大的时候已经过去，我们有信心通过产品创新和渠道拓展，让来年比今年业务表现更好。" 作为乳业风向标的伊利股份，交出了稳中有升的三季报。并因先行一步的渠道管理和高潜能品类布局， 继续领跑行业。尤其是奶粉业务中，完成核心单品配方焕新的婴配粉，抓住龙年新生儿红利，市场份额 再提升。成人营养粉则捕捉到银发群体对功能营养认知的强化，锚定以乳基为核心，深耕中式膳食、药 食同源的发展路径，筹划业务范围延伸至功能保健食品领域。 多引擎发力，渠道健康度率先好转。强经营韧性下轻装上阵的伊利，超额完成全年9%利润增长目标的 图景愈发清晰。 终端液态奶价盘、新鲜度持续向好，新品"嚼柠檬"带动优酸乳双位数高成长 近日，伊利发布2025年前三季报。披露公司实现营收905.64亿元，同比增长1.71%；扣非归母净利润首 超百亿，达101.03亿元，同比增长18.73%。 稳健增长来源于公司节奏的提前调整。今日的业绩说明会上，伊利提到，公司一方面持续推出了质价比 突出的产品，另一方面也给渠道费用支持，与经销商一起拉动终端动销。"2024年是公司蓄势调整的一 年，依托于去年的调整结果，公司在液奶的市场份额基本平稳。" 今年前三季，伊利基 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of 34.71 CNY over the next six months [5][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 61.777 billion CNY for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.49%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.200 billion CNY, a decrease of 4.39%. However, the net profit excluding non-recurring items increased by 31.78% to 7.016 billion CNY [1]. - The growth in the milk powder and cold drink segments has led to improved profit margins, with a gross margin of 34.19% in Q2 2025, an increase of 0.61 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Revenue Breakdown - For H1 2025, revenue from liquid milk, milk powder and dairy products, cold drinks, and other products was 36.13 billion CNY, 16.58 billion CNY, 8.23 billion CNY, and 390 million CNY, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -2.1%, +14.3%, +12.4%, and -5.1% [2]. - The company launched high-end organic products such as "Golden Crown" and "Toffee" which contributed to double-digit growth in the milk powder segment. The cold drink segment benefited from new products and collaborations with membership and snack stores [2]. Channel and Regional Performance - Revenue from distribution and direct sales channels for H1 2025 was 59.35 billion CNY and 1.96 billion CNY, respectively, showing year-on-year growth of 3.3% and 17.3% [2]. - Revenue by region for H1 2025 was 17.14 billion CNY in North China, 15.08 billion CNY in South China, 11.36 billion CNY in Central China, 9.06 billion CNY in East China, and 8.68 billion CNY in other regions, with year-on-year changes of +2.0%, +2.5%, +3.3%, -0.2%, and +15.1% [2]. Profitability Metrics - The company's net profit margin for H1 2025 was 11.63%, a decrease of 0.94 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin for Q2 2025 was 8.05%, an increase of 2.16 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The company aims to expand high-margin businesses such as milk powder and cold drinks, focusing on product innovation and digital marketing strategies [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue growth is projected at 3.4%, 3.9%, and 3.9% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, while net profit growth is expected to be 32.8%, 10.2%, and 5.6% for the same years [4].

Group 1 - The Chinese dairy market is in a recovery phase as of mid-2025, with major companies like Yili, Mengniu, and China Feihe leading in market capitalization [1] - Among the top five companies, four have revenues exceeding 10 billion yuan, with Yili at 61.3 billion yuan and Mengniu at 41.6 billion yuan [2] - Most companies have experienced a decline in revenue and net profit, with China Feihe's revenue down by 9.98% and net profit down by 46.66% [3][4] Group 2 - The overall market is facing pressure, particularly in the ambient liquid milk segment, as consumer preferences shift towards fresh products [5][6] - Price competition is intensifying, with smaller regional companies capturing market share from larger brands [7][8] - Despite revenue declines in liquid milk, some brands like New Dairy have seen growth in high-end product lines, indicating a shift in consumer demand [11] Group 3 - The dairy industry is experiencing a shift towards low-temperature fresh milk, which is gaining popularity over traditional ambient milk [16][20] - Companies are diversifying their product offerings to reduce reliance on liquid milk, with Yili and Mengniu seeing a decrease in the proportion of liquid milk revenue [14][15] - The infant formula segment is becoming increasingly competitive, with Yili and Feihe both claiming the top market share, although their statistics differ [23][24] Group 4 - Government policies, such as child-rearing subsidies, are stimulating demand for infant formula, contributing to revenue growth for several companies [27][28] - High-end infant formula products are gaining traction, with parents willing to spend more on quality, driving market prices upward [30] - Companies are increasingly focusing on B2B markets, with significant growth potential in sectors like food service and coffee [31][32] Group 5 - Major dairy companies are forming strategic partnerships with coffee and tea brands to enhance product sales, indicating a shift towards B2B collaborations [37][40] - The B2B market for dairy products, particularly high-end cream and cheese, is becoming a new growth engine for the industry [40]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" [8] Core Insights - In H1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 61.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.20 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.4%. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 7.02 billion yuan, an increase of 31.8% [1] - The strong growth in ice cream and milk powder cheese revenue in Q2 2025 contributed to overall revenue exceeding expectations [2] - The company's market share in infant formula reached 18.1% in H1 2025, an increase of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, ranking first in the national retail market [3] - The net profit margin improved in Q2 2025 due to increased gross sales difference, reduced spray powder, and decreased credit impairment [4] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 119.01 billion, 122.29 billion, and 124.89 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 11.23 billion, 12.05 billion, and 12.99 billion yuan, indicating a positive growth trend [5] Revenue Breakdown - In H1 2025, revenue from liquid milk, milk powder and dairy products, cold drinks, and other products were 36.13 billion, 16.58 billion, 8.23 billion, and 390 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -2.1%, +14.3%, +12.4%, and -5.1% respectively [2] - In Q2 2025, revenue from liquid milk, milk powder and dairy products, cold drinks, and other products were 16.49 billion, 7.76 billion, 4.12 billion, and 200 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -0.8%, +9.7%, +38.0%, and -3.1% respectively [2] Profitability Metrics - The gross profit margin for H1 2025 was 36.0%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points, while the net profit margin was 11.7%, a decrease of 1.0 percentage points [4] - In Q2 2025, the gross profit margin was 34.2%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points, and the net profit margin was 7.9%, an increase of 2.0 percentage points [4]