Core Viewpoint - The upcoming IPO of Gu Yu, a domestic beauty brand, highlights the changing dynamics in the Chinese beauty industry, shifting from a focus on GMV growth to customer lifetime value as investors become more discerning [1][16]. Industry Overview - The domestic beauty industry has experienced significant fluctuations over the past decade, transitioning from a period of rapid growth to a more rational market environment [1][5]. - The rise of brands like Perfect Diary and Huaxizi was fueled by social media, reaching a peak between 2020 and 2021, but the market soon recognized the unsustainability of the "traffic equals brand" model, leading to a decline starting in 2022 [2][5]. Financial Performance - In 2022, the beauty and personal care industry saw a dramatic drop in financing, with 74 investment events totaling approximately 7.949 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 72.88% [5]. - Recent financial reports indicate that companies like Beitaini and Huaxi Biological have faced declining revenues and profits, with Beitaini's net profit dropping by 33.53% year-on-year [5][6]. Gu Yu's Growth Strategy - Gu Yu has achieved explosive growth in GMV, surpassing 5 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate exceeding 40% [10]. - The brand has effectively utilized major social media platforms for marketing, starting with Taobao Live in 2016 and expanding to platforms like Xiaohongshu, Kuaishou, and Douyin [7][9]. Challenges and Risks - Gu Yu's reliance on a marketing-driven growth strategy mirrors that of earlier successful brands, raising concerns about profitability as marketing costs rise and consumer loyalty wanes [11][12]. - The brand faces significant challenges in product differentiation and market competition, particularly in the essence category where it primarily generates revenue [11][12]. Market Dynamics - The beauty industry is witnessing a shift in focus from traffic-driven growth to sustainable business models, emphasizing profitability and customer retention [16][18]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with new customer acquisition costs rising and customer lifetime value decreasing, leading to lower repurchase rates [18][20]. Regulatory Environment - Stricter regulations in the beauty industry, particularly regarding marketing claims, are expected to impact smaller brands that rely heavily on concept marketing [22]. - The evolving consumer preferences among younger generations indicate a shift towards valuing product efficacy over brand popularity, challenging traditional marketing strategies [22]. Conclusion - Gu Yu's IPO represents a critical moment for the domestic beauty industry, as it must navigate the transition from a focus on rapid growth to establishing a sustainable business model that can withstand market pressures and changing consumer expectations [23].