Report Overview - Report Name: Sugar Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: June 24, 2025 Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The current production progress in Brazil is slightly slow, but the sugar - alcohol ratio is relatively high, leading to high expectations for Brazil's new harvest season output in the overseas market. The market has high expectations for increased production in India and Thailand's 25/26 harvest seasons, which suppresses sugar prices. The profit window for out - of - quota imports in the domestic market is open, and the domestic market is slightly stronger, but the rebound strength may be limited [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Sugar Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategies - **Price Range Forecast**: The monthly price range of sugar is predicted to be between 5600 - 5800, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 6.74% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 2.1% [3]. - **Risk Management Strategies** - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about sugar price drops, they can short Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 5800 - 5850 to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell call options (SR509C5900) with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 30 - 40 to collect premiums and reduce costs [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory and aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 5630 - 5680 to lock in procurement costs. They can also sell put options (SR509P5600) with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 30 - 40 to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs [3]. Core Contradictions - Brazil's production progress is slow, but the high sugar - alcohol ratio maintains high output expectations. High expectations for increased production in India and Thailand's 25/26 harvest seasons suppress sugar prices. The domestic out - of - quota profit window is open, but the domestic market's rebound strength is limited [4]. 利多解读 - As of the end of May, Guangxi's cumulative sugar sales reached 4.6453 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 537,100 tons, and the sales - to - production ratio was 71.85%, a year - on - year increase of 5.39 percentage points [5]. - The National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories in India (NFCSF) predicts that India's ending sugar inventory in the 2024/25 harvest season will be between 4.8 - 5 million tons, sufficient to meet domestic sugar consumption from October to November 2025 [5]. - China has suspended imports of Thai syrup and premixes [5]. - From the beginning of the 2025/26 harvest season to the first half of May, the cumulative cane crush in central - southern Brazil was 76.714 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.466 million tons (20.24%); the cane ATR was 112.25 kg/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 6 kg/ton; the cumulative sugar - making ratio was 48.61%, a year - on - year increase of 1.01%; the cumulative ethanol production was 3.683 billion liters, a year - on - year decrease of 670 million liters (15.39%); and the cumulative sugar production was 3.989 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.17 million tons (22.68%) [5]. - In May, the total import of syrup and premixes was 64,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 150,700 tons, the second - lowest in the same period in the past five years [5]. 利空解读 - In the 2024/25 harvest season, the cumulative cane crush in Guangxi was 48.5954 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.5847 million tons; the mixed sugar production was 6.465 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 283,600 tons; and the sugar - making rate was 13.30%, a year - on - year increase of 1.22 percentage points [7]. - Analysis agency JOB predicts that Brazil's sugar production in the 25/26 harvest season will increase by 5% to 46 million tons [7]. - Thailand's sugar production in the 24/25 harvest season is expected to increase to 10.39 million tons [7]. - India's monsoon has arrived 3 - 4 days earlier than usual. The chairman of the federation expects a strong recovery in sugar production in the 2025/26 harvest season, reaching about 35 million metric tons, due to favorable monsoon conditions, expanded cane planting areas in major producing regions, and the central government's timely increase in the minimum cane purchase price [7]. - In May, 350,000 tons of sugar were imported, a year - on - year increase of 333,100 tons. Although the overall import volume this year is low, the out - of - quota import profit window is open [7]. Sugar Price and Spread Data - **Base Price Changes**: On June 23, 2025, the base prices of different delivery months in Nanning and Kunming showed daily and weekly fluctuations [8]. - **Futures Price and Spread**: On June 24, 2025, the closing prices of different sugar futures contracts showed varying degrees of daily and weekly changes, and the spreads between different contracts also changed [9]. - **Spot Price and Regional Spread**: On June 24, 2025, the spot prices of sugar in different regions and the regional spreads showed daily and weekly changes [10]. - **Sugar Import Price Changes**: On June 24, 2025, the in - quota and out - of - quota import prices of Brazilian and Thai sugar and the spreads with domestic prices showed daily and weekly changes [11].