【焦炭 焦煤】9 月 30 日焦炭加权指数弱势，收盘价 1642.3，环比下跌 42.2。 9 月 30 日，焦煤加权指数弱势依旧，收盘价 1137.7 元，环比下跌 45.5。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：部分钢厂接受焦企首轮提涨 50-55 元/吨。宏观， 受空气质量影响，9 月 29 日起至 10 月 20 日，唐 山调坯型钢厂实施生产调控。需求端，本期铁水产量 242.36 万吨，+1.34 万吨，铁水高位震荡，焦炭库存较同 期偏高。利润方面，本期全国 30 家独立焦化厂平均吨焦亏损 34 元/吨。 客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 10 月 9 日 星期四 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周二（9 月 30 日）A 股三大指数集体上涨，截止收盘，沪指涨 0.52%，收报 3882.78 点；深 证成指涨 0.35%，收报 13526.51 点；创业板指涨 0.00%，收报 3238.16 点；科创 50 指数涨 1.69%，收报 1495.29 点。沪深两市成交额达到 21814 亿，较上一交易日放量 200 亿。 沪深 300 指数 9 月 30 日强势依旧。收盘 4 ...

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 9 月 29 日 星期一 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周五（9 月 26 日）A 股三大指数集体回调，截止收盘，沪指跌 0.65%，深证成指跌 1.76%，创 业板指跌 2.60%。沪深两市成交额超过 2.1 万亿，较昨日缩量逾 2000 亿。 沪深 300 指数 9 月 26 日遇阻震荡。收盘 4550.05，环比下跌 43.44。 【焦炭 焦煤】9 月 26 日焦炭加权指数弱势，收盘价 1710.3，环比下跌 48.5。 9 月 26 日，焦煤加权指数震荡趋弱，收盘价 1207.0 元，环比下跌 32.4。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：港口焦炭现货市场报价上涨，日照港准一级冶金焦现货价格 1450 元/吨，较上期价格上涨 10 元/吨。 供应，原料端炼焦煤价格上涨，焦企入炉煤成本提升，利润空间收窄，焦企生产积极性维持，随着双节临近，下 游补库需求释放。需求，钢厂整体开工维持高位，假期临近焦炭的刚性需求有所提升，终端消费一般，钢材有累 库现象，整体补库预计有限。 焦煤：山西临汾地区低硫主焦煤（A9、S0.5、V20、G85）上调 80 元至 ...

Variety Views - On September 25th, the three major A-share indexes showed divergent trends. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.01% to 3853.30 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.67% to 13445.90 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.58% to 3235.76 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 2371.1 billion yuan, an increase of 44.3 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index remained strong, closing at 4593.49, a rise of 27.42 [1] - On September 25th, the coke weighted index fluctuated strongly, closing at 1777.0, a rise of 33.7. The coking coal weighted index consolidated within a range, closing at 1245.7 yuan, a rise of 12.2 [1] Impact on Coke and Coking Coal Futures Prices - For coke, port spot prices rose. The cost of coking coal increased, squeezing profit margins for coke enterprises. Steel mills' overall start - up remained high, and the rigid demand for coke increased before holidays, but overall restocking was expected to be limited [2] - For coking coal, prices in some regions adjusted. Supply was normal, demand was good, and online auctions generally trended upwards [2] Zhengzhou Sugar - US sugar fluctuated slightly and closed slightly lower on Wednesday. Affected by technical factors, Zhengzhou sugar contract 2601 adjusted and closed slightly lower on Thursday. StoneX predicted that Brazil's sugar production in 2026/27 would reach 42.1 million tons, a 5.7% increase. The global sugar market was expected to have a surplus of 2.77 million tons in 2025/26, compared with a shortage of 4.67 million tons in 2024/25 [2] Rubber - Affected by holidays, rubber prices fluctuated narrowly and closed slightly lower on Thursday. Due to the decline in tire factory operating rates this week, rubber prices fell at night. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.64%, a decrease of 0.10 percentage points month - on - month and 6.95 percentage points year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.39%, an increase of 0.03 percentage points month - on - month and 6.27 percentage points year - on - year. Thailand's exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber in the first 8 months increased by 6.3% year - on - year [3][5] Palm Oil - On September 25th, palm oil futures prices rebounded and then fluctuated narrowly throughout the day. The main contract P2601 closed with an upper and lower shadow small Yang line. Shipments from Malaysia from September 1 - 25 increased by 12.9% compared with the same period last month [5] Soybean Meal - Internationally, on September 25th, CBOT soybean futures fluctuated. Argentina re - imposed export withholding taxes. China had not ordered US soybeans. US soybean export sales in the week ending September 18 were 724,500 tons. Domestically, on September 25th, the main contract M2601 of soybean meal closed at 2956 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.37%. China had ordered about 20 ships of Argentine soybeans [6] Live Hogs - On September 24th, live hog futures fluctuated. The main contract LH2511 closed at 12685 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.35%. Supply pressure was high, and although demand increased before holidays, it was still below expectations. In the short term, prices may maintain a weak and volatile trend [7] Shanghai Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper rose sharply. The supply was disrupted by the accident at the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia. Technically, it broke through key resistance levels. Long - term supply was tight, and demand was expected to grow [8] Iron Ore - On September 25th, the main contract 2601 of iron ore fluctuated and closed up, with a gain of 0.25%. Supply and demand both increased, and prices may fluctuate in the short term [8] Asphalt - On September 25th, the main contract 2511 of asphalt fluctuated and rose, with a gain of 1.3%. Refinery production in October was expected to increase. Social inventory decreased, while refinery inventory pressure increased. Demand in the north was supported by pre - holiday construction, while demand in the south was weak due to weather. Prices may fluctuate in the short term [9] Cotton - On Thursday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13490 yuan/ton. Cotton inventory decreased by 133 lots. China's cotton production in 2025 was expected to reach 7.216 million tons, an 8.3% increase year - on - year [10] Logs - On September 25th, the futures price of logs rebounded above the 10 - day moving average. Spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. There was no major contradiction in supply and demand, and attention should be paid to spot prices, import data, inventory changes, and market sentiment [10] Steel - On September 25th, rb2601 closed at 3167 yuan/ton, and hc2601 closed at 3358 yuan/ton. There was pre - holiday restocking demand, but high - priced resources had average transactions. The steel market was generally balanced, and cost still supported prices. Steel prices may fluctuate narrowly in the short term [11] Alumina - On September 25th, ao2601 closed at 2942 yuan/ton. The market was facing supply surplus pressure. Future prices may maintain a low - level fluctuation, and attention should be paid to the situation in Guinea and domestic environmental policies [11] Shanghai Aluminum - On September 25th, al2511 closed at 20765 yuan/ton. Aluminum supply was stable at a high level, and inventory was increasing. Demand improvement was less than expected, but there was still support during the September peak season [11]

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 9 月 25 日 星期四 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周三（9 月 24 日）A 股主要指数集体走强，截止收盘，沪指涨 0.83%，收报 3853.64 点；深 证成指涨 1.80%，收报 13356.14 点；创业板指涨 2.28%，收报 3185.57 点；科创 50 指数涨 3.49%，收报 1456.47 点。沪深两市成交额达到 23268 亿，较昨日缩量 1676 亿。 沪深 300 指数 9 月 24 日强势。收盘 4566.07，环比上涨 46.29。 【焦炭 焦煤】9 月 24 日焦炭加权指数震荡整理，收盘价 1747.4，环比上涨 20.8。 9 月 24 日，焦煤加权指数区间震荡，收盘价 1234.2 元，环比上涨 14.0。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：现货价格下跌，焦企利润下降，开工积极性下滑，焦炭供应环比收缩。需求，钢厂开工积极性存在， 钢联数据显示上周日均铁水产量回升至 240 万吨以上高位，周环比有小幅增长，真实需求在高位。下游按需采购。 焦煤：国内主产区前期限产停产煤矿陆续复产，高频数据显示上游开工率回升，国内 ...

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on September 23, 2025 - A-shares: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.18% to 3821.83, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.29% to 13119.82, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.21% to 3114.55. The trading volume in the two markets reached 2494.4 billion yuan, an increase of 372.9 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - Indexes: The CSI 300 Index closed at 4519.78, down 2.83 [2]. 2. Futures Market 2.1 Coking Coal and Coke - Price: The weighted index of coke closed at 1734.4, down 10.4; the weighted index of coking coal closed at 1229.0 yuan, down 10.7 [3][4]. - Factors: For coke, the third - round price cut is still expected, while some coking plants start the first - round price increase. The overall inventory is increasing, and traders' purchasing willingness has improved. For coking coal, the output of coking coal mines has increased slightly, the pre - National Day replenishment sentiment is strong, and the total inventory has increased [5]. 2.2 Zhengzhou Sugar - Price: Affected by factors such as the decline of US sugar and the possible reduction of spot quotes, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract fluctuated lower on Tuesday and rebounded at night [5]. - Supply: Based on the current crop growth, India's sugarcane production in the 2025/26 season may reach about 487 million tons, an 8% increase from the previous season, and the total sugar production is expected to increase 18% to 34.9 million tons [5]. 2.3 Rubber - Price: Shanghai rubber fluctuated slightly on Tuesday, with natural rubber being weak and 20 - number rubber being slightly stronger. It rose slightly at night due to the increase in crude oil prices [6]. - Production: In August 2025, China's rubber tire outer tube production was 102.954 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. From January to August, the production increased 1.6% to 7.95467 billion pieces [6]. 2.4 Soybean Meal - Price: The M2601 main contract of soybean meal closed at 2928 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.49% [8]. - Supply - demand: The supply of imported soybeans in China is sufficient, the oil mills maintain a high operating rate, and the inventory is rising. The price is expected to be weak under the supply pressure [8]. 2.5 Live Pigs - Price: The LH2511 main contract of live pigs closed at 12665 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.02% [8]. - Supply - demand: The supply of standard pigs increased significantly in September, and the market supply pressure is large. Although the pre - festival stocking enthusiasm has increased, the consumption has not reached the expected level, and the price may remain weak [8]. 2.6 Palm Oil - Price: The P2601 main contract of palm oil closed at 9054, a decline of 3.27%. The highest price was 9294, and the lowest was 8946 [9]. - Production: An Indonesian state - owned palm oil producer aims for a crude palm oil production of 415,000 tons in 2025 and 1.07 million tons in 2026 [9]. 2.7 Shanghai Copper - Price: Affected by macro and supply - demand factors, the price is under pressure. The inventory is rising, and the spot basis premium has narrowed to 60 points [9]. - Factors: The macro - level policies are not releasing more positive signals, and the Fed's internal differences increase market uncertainty. The supply is tightened due to a mine shutdown, but the demand is still cautious [9]. 2.8 Cotton - Price: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13580 yuan/ton at night on Tuesday, and the inventory decreased by 181 lots [10]. - Export: From January to August 2025, China's cotton product export volume was 4.9341 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.49%, but the export value decreased 4.95%, and the unit price dropped 13.11% [10]. 2.9 Logs - Price: The 2511 contract opened at 808, closed at 805, with a daily reduction of 362 lots. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged [10]. - Market: The supply - demand relationship has no major contradictions, and the market is in a game between strong expectations and weak reality [10]. 2.10 Iron Ore - Price: The 2601 main contract of iron ore fell 1.23% to 802.5 yuan [11]. - Supply - demand: The shipment decreased, the arrival increased, and the steel mills have pre - festival replenishment demand. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [11]. 2.11 Asphalt - Price: The 2511 main contract of asphalt fell 1.2% to 3373 yuan [12]. - Supply - demand: The capacity utilization rate decreased slightly last week, the inventory continued to decline, and the shipment increased. The price will fluctuate in the short term [12]. 2.12 Alumina - Price: The ao2601 contract closed at 2877 yuan/ton [12]. - Supply - demand: The supply - demand contradiction is difficult to resolve, and the expected supply expansion suppresses the price. The price may fluctuate around the cost line [12]. 2.13 Shanghai Aluminum - Price: The al2511 contract closed at 20685 yuan/ton [12]. - Supply - demand: The downstream peak - season characteristics are not obvious, but the consumption willingness is expected to improve. The price is looking for a bottom in the range [12]. 2.14 Steel - Price: The rb2601 contract closed at 3155 yuan/ton, and the hc2601 contract closed at 3340 yuan/ton [13]. - Supply - demand: The supply is weak and the demand is increasing, but the downstream has not improved. The price will fluctuate under the game of multiple factors [13].

Variety Views - On September 22, A-share major indices rose collectively. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.22% to 3828.58 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.67% to 13157.97 points, the ChiNext Index rose 0.55% to 3107.89 points, and the STAR 50 Index rose 3.38% to 1408.64 points. The trading volume of the two markets was 2121.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 202.3 billion yuan from the previous trading day. The CSI 300 Index trended stronger on September 22, closing at 4522.61, up 20.69 [1]. - On September 22, the coke weighted index adjusted and closed at 1733.0, down 7.8. The coking coal weighted index fluctuated and closed at 1227.7 yuan, up 0.5 [1][2]. - The coke spot may start the third round of price cuts, but some coking enterprises propose price increases, intensifying the game between steel and coking. The coking coal supply is disturbed, but the mine output continues to increase this week, indicating limited impact. The spot transaction has rebounded to a high level, the Mongolian coal price has been raised twice, and the upstream inventory has been destocked for three consecutive weeks, with improving demand [3]. - Affected by the decline in the spot price, the Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract fell slightly on September 22. In August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 62,700 tons year-on-year. The total import of syrup and premixed powder was 115,500 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 155,800 tons and a month-on-month decrease of 44,200 tons [3]. - Affected by the technical level and the rebound of Southeast Asian spot prices, the Shanghai rubber futures rose slightly on September 22. As of September 21, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 461,200 tons, a decrease of 3,600 tons from the previous period, a decline of 0.76% [4]. - On September 22, the CBOT soybean futures were weak. As of the week of September 21, the US soybean good and excellent rate was 61%, lower than the market expectation of 62% and the same period last year of 64%. The soybean harvest rate was 9%, lower than the market expectation of 12% and the same period last year of 12%. The domestic soybean meal M2601 contract closed at 3034 yuan/ton on September 22, up 0.66%. The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, the oil mill operating rate is high, and the soybean meal inventory continues to rise [4][6]. - On September 22, the LH2511 contract closed at 12,795 yuan/ton, down 0.23%. In September, the supply of standard pigs increased significantly, and the market supply pressure was large. The demand was supported by the approaching holidays, but the futures price may remain weak in the short term [6]. - On September 22, the palm oil futures fluctuated slightly. The high-frequency data showed that from September 1 - 20, 2025, the Malaysian palm oil yield decreased by 6.57% month-on-month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.25% month-on-month, and the production decreased by 7.89% month-on-month. Different institutions' data on export volume showed different trends [7]. - After the Fed cut interest rates in September, the market sentiment improved, and the copper price rebounded. The downstream may have some stocking demand before the National Day, which supports the copper price [8]. - On the night of September 22, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 13,575 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased by 136 lots compared with the previous trading day. The price of new cotton in Xinjiang on September 22 was 6.2 - 6.67 yuan/kg in the northern region and about 6.4 - 6.5 yuan/kg in the southern region [8]. - On September 22, the log 2511 contract opened at 805, with the lowest at 801, the highest at 813.5, and closed at 807.5, with a reduction of 438 lots. The spot price in Shandong and Jiangsu remained flat. In August, the log import volume was 2.11 million cubic meters, a year-on-year decrease of 24% [8][9]. - On September 22, the iron ore 2601 contract rose 0.37% to close at 808.5 yuan. Last week, the global iron ore shipment volume rebounded, the arrival volume continued to decline, and the port inventory decreased. Steel mills have stocking demand before the festival, and the molten iron output increased slightly at a high level [9]. - On September 22, the asphalt 2511 contract fell 0.7% to close at 3401 yuan. Last week, the asphalt production capacity utilization rate decreased slightly, the inventory continued to decline, and the shipment volume rebounded. The demand in the north was supported by the weather, while the rain in the south hindered the demand [9]. - On September 22, the rb2601 contract was reported at 3185 yuan/ton, and the hc2601 contract was reported at 3380 yuan/ton. The steel demand continued to recover slowly in September, and the supply - demand relationship improved slightly. The cost supported the steel price, and the short - term steel price may fluctuate at a high level [10]. - On September 22, the ao2601 contract was reported at 2934 yuan/ton. There was a slight disturbance at the mine end, and the domestic bauxite port inventory decreased significantly. The alumina production capacity utilization rate increased, the inventory reached a new high, and the spot prices at home and abroad fell [10]. - On September 22, the al2511 contract was reported at 20745 yuan/ton. The electrolytic aluminum supply remained stable at a high level, the exchange inventories at home and abroad continued to increase, and the overall improvement of downstream demand was still less than that of the same period in previous years [11].

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - On September 18, most of the analyzed futures varieties showed downward trends or were in a state of shock adjustment. The market was affected by various factors such as policy changes, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic events like the Fed's interest rate cut [1][2][3]. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On September 18, A - share three major indexes collectively declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.15% to 3831.66 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.06% to 13075.66 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.64% to 3095.85 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 31352 billion yuan, a significant increase of 7584 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 index weakened, closing at 4498.11, a decrease of 52.91 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On September 18, the coke weighted index fluctuated and sorted, closing at 1722.8, a decrease of 17.7. The coking coal weighted index adjusted downward, closing at 1212.7 yuan, a decrease of 23.5. Coke producers' profits are okay, and after the end of production - limiting constraints, the start - up rate has rebounded. Steel mills' blast furnaces maintain the momentum of operation, and the real demand is supported. For coking coal, after the end of policy disturbances, domestic coal supply has recovered, and imports from Mongolia have returned to normal. Downstream enterprises' start - up rates have rebounded from low levels [1][2]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by factors such as the decline of US sugar and the reduction of spot quotes, the Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract declined on September 18. In the second half of August, sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil increased by 18.21% year - on - year to 387 million tons. India plans to resume sugar exports in the new sugar - crushing season starting from October 2025, which may put downward pressure on global sugar prices [2]. Rubber - Due to the decrease in rainfall in the Thai production area and the adjustment of spot quotes, as well as the Fed's interest rate cut and concerns about the US economic outlook, the Shanghai rubber futures declined significantly on September 18. From January to July 2025, US tire imports increased by 7.4% year - on - year, and China's synthetic rubber production in August 2025 increased by 7.4% year - on - year [3]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on September 18, CBOT soybean futures closed slightly lower, affected by the strengthening of the US dollar and the pressure of US soybean harvest. The market expects the US Department of Agriculture to lower the US soybean yield per unit in the next report. Domestically, on September 18, the soybean meal M2601 contract closed at 2993 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.3%. The supply of domestic soybean meal is abundant, and the price is in a downward adjustment trend [3][4]. Live Pigs - On September 18, the LH2511 contract closed at 12830 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.31%. Recently, the enthusiasm of the breeding end for slaughter has increased, and the supply of standard pigs has further increased. The consumption demand has slowly recovered, but the short - term demand side is difficult to form a strong support [4]. Palm Oil - On September 18, the palm oil futures price continued to decline within the range, and the closing price of the main contract P2601 was 9304, a decrease of 1.27%. In August, China's palm oil imports were 340,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.5%. From January to August, imports were 1.59 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.8% [5]. Shanghai Copper - After the Fed's 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in September, the market sentiment weakened, and the Shanghai copper price fell significantly. The supply - demand pattern is weak on both sides, but the supply of smelters may be more affected, and the downstream demand has marginally increased. The pre - National Day inventory replenishment may support the price [5]. Cotton - On the night of September 18, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13715 yuan/ton. Cotton inventory decreased by 177 lots compared with the previous trading day. The US dollar index weakened, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut increased [5]. Iron Ore - On September 18, the iron ore 2601 contract closed down 0.12% at 800 yuan. The global shipment volume of iron ore has rebounded, and the arrival volume has continued to decline. Steel mills still have the demand for replenishment, but due to the emission reduction requirements in Tangshan, the short - term price is in a shock trend [6]. Asphalt - On September 18, the asphalt 2511 contract closed down 0.35% at 3427 yuan. The asphalt supply continues to be low, the inventory continues to decline, and the demand is still weak. The short - term price is in a shock operation [6]. Logs - On September 18, the 2511 log contract opened at 809, closed at 801.5, and increased its position by 321 lots. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. In August, log imports decreased by 24% year - on - year. The supply - demand relationship has no major contradictions, and there is a game between strong expectations and weak reality [6]. Steel - On September 18, rb2601 was reported at 3147 yuan/ton, and hc2601 was reported at 3354 yuan/ton. The demand for steel in September has recovered slowly, and the transaction of high - priced resources is not good. After the speculation of coking coal and coke futures, they have entered the adjustment stage, and the price of raw fuels is still high. In the short term, steel prices may fluctuate weakly [7]. Alumina - On September 18, ao2601 was reported at 2931 yuan/ton. The alumina market is still in a state of oversupply. The domestic production capacity is high, imports are increasing, and the inventory is also high. Electrolytic aluminum plants' procurement is negative. In the short term, the spot price may continue to decline [7]. Shanghai Aluminum - On September 18, al2511 was reported at 20785 yuan/ton. After the Fed's interest rate cut, market uncertainty increased, and the risk - aversion sentiment rose. The supply of aluminum ingots is normal, and the social inventory is accumulating. The demand has slightly improved, and the price continues to decline [8].

Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On September 16, 2025, the A-share market showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.04%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.45%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.68%. The trading volume in the two markets reached 2341.4 billion yuan, an increase of 64 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - Various futures varieties had different trends on September 16, including the performance of coke, coking coal, sugar, rubber, soybean meal, etc., and their future trends are affected by multiple factors such as supply and demand, weather, and policies [3][4][5]. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On September 16, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3861.87, up 0.04%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13063.97, up 0.45%; the ChiNext Index closed at 3087.04, up 0.68%. The trading volume in the two markets reached 2341.4 billion yuan, an increase of 64 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index fluctuated and sorted on September 16, closing at 4523.34, down 9.72 from the previous day [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On September 16, the coke weighted index was strong, closing at 1748.0, up 70.6 from the previous day. The coking coal weighted index remained strong, closing at 1248.5 yuan, up 68.0 from the previous day [3][4]. - For coke, the second - round price cut has been implemented, but due to the concession of raw coal, the profitability of coking plants is acceptable, and the supply of coke has increased. For coking coal, most coal mines in Shanxi that stopped or reduced production due to the parade have resumed production, and the supply from the origin has increased [5]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the rise of US sugar and the downward adjustment of spot prices, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract fluctuated widely on September 16, rising first and then falling, and closing slightly higher. At night, it fluctuated slightly lower [5]. - Brazil is expected to increase its sugarcane planting area in 2025, but the sugarcane output is expected to decrease slightly compared with the previous year [5]. Rubber - Thailand's continuous rainfall has caused supply concerns, and Shanghai rubber fluctuated slightly higher on September 16. At night, it fluctuated and sorted [6]. - From January to August this year, China's automobile production and sales exceeded 20 million for the first time, with year - on - year increases of 12.7% and 12.6% respectively [6]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on September 16, CBOT soybean futures closed slightly higher. The US soybean crop rating decreased compared with the previous week, and the harvest progress was faster than the five - year average [6]. - Domestically, on September 16, the soybean meal M2601 main contract closed at 3041 yuan/ton, down 0.03%. The supply of soybean meal is loose, and the price maintains a volatile and sorted trend [6][8]. Live Pigs - On September 16, the LH2511 main contract closed at 13160 yuan/ton, down 0.87%. The supply of suitable - weight standard pigs has increased, and the short - term demand is difficult to form a strong support. The futures price of live pigs may maintain a low - level volatile trend [8]. Palm Oil - On September 16, palm oil futures continued to rebound slightly within the range, and the main contract P2601 closed with a small阳线 with an upper shadow line, up 0.64% from the previous day [9]. - Malaysian research institution Kenanga Research said that the prices of edible oils, including palm oil, are expected to be firm in 2025 and 2026 [9]. Copper - The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September. The domestic copper concentrate supply and demand are expected to be tight, which will potentially support the price. However, the high copper price restricts the downstream demand [10]. Cotton - On the night of September 16, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13940 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 130 lots compared with the previous day. Some early - maturing varieties in Xinjiang have started to be picked [10]. Logs - On September 16, the 2511 contract of logs opened at 798.5, with the lowest at 794.5, the highest at 813, and closed at 806.5, with a decrease of 796 lots in positions. Pay attention to the support at 800 and the pressure at 813 [10]. Iron Ore - On September 16, the iron ore 2601 main contract fluctuated and closed up, up 0.82%, closing at 803.5 yuan. The global shipment of iron ore has rebounded, and the short - term price is in a volatile trend [11]. Asphalt - On September 16, the asphalt 2511 main contract fluctuated and closed up, up 0.38%, closing at 3411 yuan. The current demand is not strong in the peak season, and the short - term price is in a volatile trend [12]. Steel - On September 16, rb2601 closed at 3166 yuan/ton, and hc2601 closed at 3402 yuan/ton. The market is mainly based on supply - demand structure, but there may be policy - driven fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the callback risk [12]. Alumina - On September 16, ao2601 closed at 2979 yuan/ton. The supply - demand contradiction cannot be resolved, and the continuous expansion of supply suppresses the price. The fundamentals are weak [13]. Aluminum - On September 16, al2510 closed at 20975 yuan/ton. The demand has improved, but the inventory is still in a state of accumulation, and whether the de - stocking inflection point can appear in mid - September needs further observation [13].

Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On September 15th, the three major A-share indices showed mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.26% to close at 3860.50 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.63% to 13005.77 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.52% to 3066.18 points. The trading volume of the two markets was 2277.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 243.5 billion yuan from the previous trading day. The CSI 300 index fluctuated narrowly, closing at 4533.06, up 11.06 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On September 15th, the coke weighted index trended stronger in a fluctuating manner, closing at 1700.9, up 75.5. The coking coal weighted index was strong, closing at 1196.6 yuan, up 53.1. Coke is facing a second - round price cut. The current iron - water output is 2405500 tons, an increase of 117100 tons. The coke inventory is moderately high, and the average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 35 yuan/ton. For coking coal, the price of Tangshan Mongolian 5 clean coal is 1366, equivalent to 1146 on the futures market. The market has fully priced in three Fed rate cuts by the end of 2025. The Fed will announce interest rate decisions on September 17th, October 29th, and December 10th. The supply at the mine end has recovered, the capacity utilization rate of independent coal washing plants has declined for 4 consecutive weeks, and the cumulative import growth rate has declined for 3 consecutive months. The supply has decreased, the inventory has decreased significantly month - on - month, and the inventory is at a moderate level [1][2]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Supported by factors such as the rebound of US sugar on Friday and the stable spot price, the short - covering of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract led to an upward trend on Monday. The USDA's September supply - demand report shows that the estimated total sugar production in the US for the 2025/26 crushing season is 9.47 million short tons, and the sugar inventory/consumption ratio is estimated to be 16.2% [2]. Rubber - Boosted by factors such as the increase in Southeast Asian spot prices and the stabilization of crude oil prices, Shanghai rubber trended higher on Monday. The night - session fluctuated slightly and closed slightly higher. In July 2025, Malaysia's natural rubber production was 35884 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5% and a month - on - month increase of 36.7%. As of the end of July 2025, Malaysia's natural rubber inventory increased by 15.5% to 171061 tons [3]. Palm Oil - On September 15th, the palm oil futures fluctuated upward within the range. The main contract P2601 closed with a doji - like candlestick. The highest price was 9442, the lowest was 9318, and the closing price was 9422, up 1.36% from the previous day. From September 1 - 15th, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 742648 tons, a 2.6% increase from the same period last month. As of September 12th, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 641500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 22200 tons, or 3.58%, and a year - on - year increase of 128000 tons, or 24.92% [3]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on September 15th, CBOT soybean futures closed lower. The seasonal harvest pressure is emerging. As of the week ending September 14th, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans is 63%, and the harvest rate is 5%, in line with market expectations. As of September 11th, the soybean planting area in Brazil for the 2025/26 season has reached 0.12% of the expected total area, and drought in the central - western region may disrupt the sowing work. Domestically, on September 15th, the main contract of soybean meal M2601 closed at 3042 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.2%. Currently, the import volume of soybeans is large, the supply is sufficient, the factory's operating rate is high, the crushing volume remains at a high level, and the soybean meal inventory continues to rise. However, due to the lack of a trade agreement between China and the US, there is still an expectation of tightened long - term soybean imports. Overall, the market is mixed with long and short factors, and the soybean meal price will maintain a volatile trend [4]. Live Pigs - On September 15th, the main contract LH2511 closed at 13745 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.4%. In September, the production capacity is in the concentrated realization stage, the supply of suitable - weight standard pigs has increased, the group pig enterprises have a high slaughter plan, and the daily average slaughter has increased month - on - month. Although it is approaching the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day consumption peak season, the recovery of terminal consumption is slow, and it is difficult to form strong support in the short term. The live - pig futures price may maintain a low - level volatile trend [5]. Shanghai Copper - The market believes that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 100%, and the market bets on three rate cuts this year, which keeps the US Treasury yield at a low level and supports the Shanghai copper price. Fundamentally, the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia has stopped production due to wet - material blockage, and the resumption time is uncertain, which intensifies the global shortage of copper concentrates and is beneficial to copper prices. However, in the week ending September 12th, the social inventory of Shanghai copper increased by 14.91% to 94054 tons, reaching a two - and - a - half - month high, weakening the support of low inventory on prices. Currently, at a high copper price, downstream buyers are mainly on the sidelines, the rigid demand procurement is limited, the release of peak - season demand is weak, and the willingness to chase the price is limited. The upward pressure on copper prices persists. Technically, Shanghai copper is expected to run strongly in the short term but may face certain pressure at high levels [5]. Iron Ore - On September 15th, the main contract of iron ore 2601 fluctuated and closed lower, with a decline of 0.31%, closing at 796 yuan. Last week, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased week - on - week, and the arrival volume also decreased slightly. The supply has tightened, the iron - water output has returned to a high level, and steel mills still have the demand for replenishing stocks. The supply has decreased while the demand has increased, and the short - term iron ore price is in a volatile trend [6]. Asphalt - On September 15th, the main contract of asphalt 2511 fluctuated and closed lower, with a decline of 0.29%, closing at 3393 yuan. Last week, the asphalt production capacity utilization rate increased week - on - week, the asphalt manufacturers' shipment volume decreased, the factory inventory increased, and the social inventory decreased. The inventory level remained flat week - on - week. Due to weather factors, the current demand shows the characteristic of a peak season without a peak, and the fundamental driving force is still limited. The short - term asphalt price will mainly operate in a volatile manner [6]. Cotton - On Monday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13910 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased by 118 lots compared with the previous trading day. The purchase price of hand - picked cotton in southern Xinjiang is firm, which boosts market sentiment to a certain extent [6]. Logs - On September 15th, the log futures opened at 798.5, with a minimum of 794.5, a maximum of 806.5, and closed at 804.5, with an increase of 709 lots in positions. The futures price rebounded and touched the 60 - day moving average of 334. Pay attention to the support at the 800 mark and the pressure at 810. The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong is 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and that in Jiangsu is 770 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship, and there is a game between strong expectations and weak reality. The spot trading is weak. Pay attention to the spot price during the peak season, import data, inventory changes, and the support of macro - expectations and market sentiment on prices [6][7]. Steel - On September 15th, rb2601 closed at 3136 yuan/ton, and hc2601 closed at 3370 yuan/ton. From January to August, the industrial added value continued to grow rapidly, and the equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing industries showed good momentum. However, the investment growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing have slowed down, and the real estate market is still in a downward cycle, resulting in a slow improvement in steel demand during the "Golden September". The National Bureau of Statistics said that in the next stage, it will strengthen the governance of over - capacity in key industries, advocate against disorderly competition among enterprises, and promote a reasonable recovery of prices. On Monday, the "double - coke" futures rose sharply, pushing up the cost and driving up the steel price. Considering the general balance of supply and demand in the steel market, the continuous rise of steel prices is questionable, and it may run slightly stronger in a volatile manner in the short term [8]. Alumina - On September 15th, ao2601 closed at 2935 yuan/ton. Although there is no new production capacity coming on - stream in September, due to the stable output of new production capacity added in the first half of the year and the continuous resumption of production of some enterprises' overhauled production lines, the spot supply will be further relaxed, increasing the downward pressure on market prices. In terms of demand, the operation of downstream electrolytic aluminum plants is relatively stable, the long - term order demand for alumina is relatively stable, but the spot bulk order transactions may weaken. With the increase in the delivery - warehouse capacity and the market - circulating spot, the downstream aluminum plants' willingness to bargain for lower prices when purchasing has increased [8]. Shanghai Aluminum - On September 15th, al2510 closed at 21020 yuan/ton. The improvement of the global economic outlook and the increasing expectation of Fed rate cuts are important macro - factors supporting the rise of aluminum prices. The US dollar index has weakened periodically, which is beneficial to commodities priced in US dollars. The macro - environment continues to send positive signals, enhancing the market's optimistic sentiment towards the aluminum demand outlook. Domestic and foreign investors and traders have increased their purchases, driving up the aluminum price. As the National Day holiday approaches, the recovery of demand and the increase in the proportion of direct delivery of ingots to terminals will trigger a turning point in inventory. The domestic aluminum market is expected to start a destocking cycle, but whether this turning point is stable still needs further verification from subsequent data [9].

Variety Views - On September 10, A-share's three major indexes rose collectively, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.13% to 3812.22, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.38% to 12557.68, and the ChiNext Index up 1.27% to 2904.27. The trading volume of the two markets was 1978.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 140.4 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 index fluctuated on September 10, closing at 4445.36, up 9.11 [1]. - On September 10, the coke weighted index showed a weak oscillation, closing at 1612.3, down 12.1 [1]. - On September 10, the coking coal weighted index remained weak, closing at 1121.0 yuan, down 22.5 [2]. Impact on Coke and Coking Coal Futures Prices - Coke: Last week, coke enterprises in the northern region were restricted by production limits, but this week's production rate is expected to recover. Steel mills' production will resume this week. Downstream demand is average, with on - demand procurement. Coke enterprises' inventory is accumulating, and the spot market sentiment is weakening with a price cut expectation [3]. - Coking coal: Last week, the coal mine's production rate declined significantly, but it is expected to recover this week. Mongolian coal customs clearance is at a high level this year, and the downstream receiving enthusiasm is average, with the spot market quotation slightly falling. The downstream enterprises' production rate decreased last week due to production limits, but they still have the motivation to operate due to good profits. The market is waiting for the peak season to start downstream replenishment [3]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Recently, the Brazilian ethanol price has risen, which may lead sugar mills to modify the sugar/ethanol production ratio. Affected by this, the US sugar rebounded on Tuesday. Supported by factors such as the US sugar's stable rebound and stable spot quotes, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rose slightly on Wednesday. At night, it fluctuated slightly higher. Vietnam's sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to continue to grow, with sugarcane production exceeding 13.34 million tons and sugar production exceeding 1.37 million tons, an increase of 8.24% year - on - year [3]. Rubber - Due to the large decline in the previous trading day, the Shanghai rubber oscillated and adjusted slightly lower on Wednesday. Bosch's CEO expects the automotive industry to face intense competition next year, limiting production. Thailand's meteorological agency warned of possible floods from September 10 - 11. Affected by these factors, the Shanghai rubber fluctuated slightly higher at night. In August 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles, a slight decrease of 1% month - on - month and a 35% increase year - on - year. From January to August this year, the cumulative sales exceeded 700,000 vehicles, reaching about 708,000, a year - on - year increase of about 13% [4]. Soybean Meal - On September 10, CBOT soybean futures closed down. As the US soybean harvest is about to start, the supply pressure is rising without Chinese purchases. The US Department of Agriculture will release a monthly supply - demand report on Friday, and the market expects a slight decrease in the US soybean yield and a high probability of a decrease in US soybean export data. In the domestic market, on September 10, the soybean meal futures price oscillated. The M2601 main contract closed at 3066 yuan/ton, down 0.29%. The import soybean crushing volume remains high, and the soybean meal output is large. Last week, the domestic soybean meal inventory reached 1.16 million tons, a new high in nearly a year. Although the import of soybeans in the past two months has exceeded expectations, the Sino - US trade negotiation is undecided, and the market expects a decline in future supply. The soybean meal price will continue to oscillate [4][6]. Live Pigs - On September 10, the live pig futures price oscillated. The LH2511 main contract closed at 13315 yuan/ton, up 0.64%. Currently, the production capacity is being realized, the inventory of suitable - weight and medium - large pigs is increasing, and the daily sales pressure of group pig enterprises is increasing, resulting in an oversupply in the market. Although the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day are approaching, the terminal consumption recovery is slow, and it is difficult to form strong support in the short term. The live pig supply - demand situation remains loose [6]. Shanghai Copper - The US PPI in August showed an unexpected 0.1% monthly decline in the final product price of total demand, with an annual increase of 2.6%, far lower than the market expectation. This indicates that the expected acceleration of wholesale inflation did not occur. Global copper inventories are still at a historical low. LME copper inventory decreased by 400 tons to 78,225 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants continued to decline. The SHFE copper inventory decreased by 5752 tons to 36,110 tons this week, which supports the copper price. However, the peak - season demand expectation is weak, the price decline is supported, but there is no upward momentum, and the overall center of gravity moves up slowly [7]. Iron Ore - On September 10, the iron ore 2601 main contract closed up 0.25%, at 805 yuan. The global iron ore shipment volume decreased this period, and the arrival volume also decreased slightly, resulting in a tightened supply. The molten iron production decreased significantly, but due to good steel mill profits, the demand for molten iron is expected to recover. The short - term iron ore price will oscillate [7]. Asphalt - On September 10, the asphalt 2511 main contract closed up 0.88%, at 3450 yuan. The asphalt production capacity utilization rate continued to decline, and the asphalt manufacturers' shipment volume increased slightly. With the arrival of the peak season, the terminal demand is expected to improve, but the actual driving force is still limited. The short - term asphalt price will oscillate [7]. Logs - On September 10, the log 2511 contract opened at 803, with a minimum of 801, a maximum of 808, and closed at 806.5, with a daily reduction of 442 lots. The futures price rebounded to the 60 - day moving average of 812. Attention should be paid to the support at the 800 mark and the pressure at 812. The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, and that in Jiangsu was 780 yuan/cubic meter, both unchanged from the previous day. Customs data on the 8th showed that the import of logs and sawn timber from January to August decreased by 13.2% year - on - year. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship, with a game between strong expectations and weak reality. The spot trading is weak. Attention should be paid to the spot price in the peak season, import data, inventory changes, and the support of macro - expectations and market sentiment on the price [8]. Cotton - On Wednesday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13,860 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased by 137 lots compared with the previous trading day. Heavy rain and floods in the Pakistani cotton area affected cotton harvesting [8]. Steel - On September 10, rb2601 closed at 3109 yuan/ton, and hc2601 closed at 3342 yuan/ton. The demand recovery in the steel market in "Golden September" is still slow. Low - price resources are traded well, while high - price resources are not. Currently, the market is in a fierce long - short game, with a cautious wait - and - see attitude. Downstream terminals purchase on - demand, and the steel price may continue to oscillate narrowly [8]. Alumina - On September 10, ao2601 closed at 2933 yuan/ton. The domestic alumina production capacity and weekly output are at a high level, and enterprises still have a certain profit margin. There is also an expectation of new production capacity in the future, so the supply will be continuously sufficient. The downstream electrolytic aluminum is already operating at full capacity, and without new production capacity, the downstream demand cannot increase, resulting in a supply - demand imbalance and continuous inventory accumulation. In this context, the alumina market remains in a state of oversupply, and the price continues to oscillate weakly [9]. Shanghai Aluminum - On September 10, al2510 closed at 20,790 yuan/ton. The macro environment remains favorable. Fundamentally, the downstream demand has improved marginally, the proportion of molten aluminum has increased, and the ingot casting volume has decreased. However, the inflection point of aluminum ingot inventory has not arrived, and the actual demand has not improved significantly. The cost upward space of downstream enterprises is limited, but there are still expectations of interest rate cuts and a peak season. The aluminum price is supported at the bottom, and the subsequent price still depends on the realization of the consumption peak season [9]