农产品日报 | 2025-11-27 郑棉上下空间受限，短期延续震荡运行 棉花观点 昨日郑棉期价震荡收跌。国际方面，USDA报告大幅上调2025/26年度全球棉花产量，其中包括美国、中国和巴西 在内的主产国产量均有所调增；而全球棉花消费量仅微幅上调，使得全球棉花期末库存较9月显著上升，并且由去 库再度转为累库。就美棉而言，因单产明显提高，USDA将美棉产量大幅上调，而出口仅上调4万吨，调整后美棉 销售压力显著提升。总体而言，11月USDA报告调整对盘面利空明显。当前北半球新棉集中上市，阶段性供应压力 仍在释放，而全球纺织终端消费仍疲软，短期外盘预计仍将承压运行。国内方面，国庆后随着采收进度加快，市 场对于新棉产量预期下滑，籽棉收购价也震荡走强，推动郑棉期价一度反弹至13600元/吨上方。不过盘面上涨后面 临较强的套保压力，且近期新疆产量预期又再度上升，而国内下游旺季特征并不明显，中美关税利好影响下订单 也仅有零星好转。当前进入纺织行业淡季，内地下游需求开始呈现偏弱态势，纺企对棉花原料随用随采，需求面 支撑不足。不过纺纱利润整体有所改善，且当前成品库存压力尚可，盘面下行空间预计受限。 策略 中性。郑棉短期上下空 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-11-26 糖价止跌企稳，郑棉延续反弹 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2601合约13645元/吨，较前一日变动+60元/吨，幅度+0.44%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价14599元/吨，较前一日变动+25元/吨，现货基差CF01+954，较前一日变动-35；3128B棉全国均价14832元/吨， 较前一日变动+39元/吨，现货基差CF01+1187，较前一日变动-21。 近期市场资讯，据美国农业部，至11月23日全美棉花采摘进度79%，较去年同期落后4个百分点，较近五年均值落 后1个百分点。其中主产棉区得州采摘进度70%，较去年同期落后9个百分点，较近五年平均进度落后4个百分点。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价延续反弹。国际方面，USDA报告大幅上调2025/26年度全球棉花产量，其中包括美国、中国和巴西 在内的主产国产量均有所调增；而全球棉花消费量仅微幅上调，使得全球棉花期末库存较9月显著上升，并且由去 库再度转为累库。就美棉而言，因单产明显提高，USDA将美棉产量大幅上调，而出口仅上调4万吨，调整后美棉 销售压力显著提升。总体而言，11月USDA报告调整对 ...

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 11 月 26 日 星期三 【股指期货】 周二（11 月 25 日） A 股三大指数集体走强，截止收盘，沪指涨 0.87%，收报 3870.02 点； 深证成指涨 1.53%，收报 12777.31 点；创业板指涨 1.77%，收报 2980.93 点。沪深两市成交额达到 18121 亿，较 昨日放量 844 亿。 沪深 300 指数 11 月 25 日震荡整理。收盘 4490.40，环比上涨 42.36。（数据来源：东方财富网） 【焦炭 焦煤】11 月 25 日焦炭加权指数区间震荡，收盘价 1686.4，环比上涨 15.9。 11 月 25 日，焦煤加权指数弱势整理，收盘价 1127.1 元，环比下跌 4.5。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：第四轮提涨落地，吨焦利润有所改善，焦企开工整体稳定。钢厂铁水日均产量小幅增加，短期内对原 料需求支撑仍在。 焦煤：近期煤矿产量小幅增加，整体水平仍在低位徘徊，蒙煤通关维持高位，矿山精煤库存维持低位。随着 年底临近，煤矿安全监管将加强，叠加环保等因素共同制约了煤炭产量释放，焦煤供给端仍有收缩预期。短期内， ...

【焦炭 焦煤】11 月 24 日焦炭加权指数震荡整理，收盘价 1675.5，环比上涨 1.0。 11 月 24 日，焦煤加权指数弱势依旧，收盘价 1129.6 元，环比下跌 14.9。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：现货提涨落地，焦煤价格出现回调，行业利润相较前期好转，高频数据显示焦企开工率周环比小幅回 升，焦炭供应环比增加。需求，钢厂高炉开工率周环比再降，终端需求逐步走弱，钢厂提产空间有限。 焦煤：主产区个别煤矿仍受到其他因素制约产量释放，其他煤矿维持正常生产，上游开工率小幅回升，国内 煤炭供应缓慢恢复。进口，蒙煤为完成年内出口任务通关放量。需求，焦企焦煤库存升至历年同期偏高位，采购 积极性有所下滑，钢厂铁水产量周环比再降，打压真实需求。（数据来源：东方财富网） 客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 11 月 25 日 星期二 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周一（11 月 24 日）A 股三大指数集体小幅上涨，截止收盘，沪指涨 0.05%，收报 3836.77 点； 深证成指涨 0.37%，收报 12585.08 点；创业板指涨 0.31%，收报 2929.04 点。沪深两市成交额 ...

Report Overview - The report provides a market analysis of various futures varieties on November 20, 2025, including stock index futures, coke, coking coal, Zhengzhou sugar, rubber, live pigs, soybean meal, palm oil, Shanghai copper, logs, iron ore, asphalt, cotton, steel, alumina, and Shanghai aluminum [1][2][3] Stock Index Futures - On November 20, A-share market indices declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.40% to 3931.05, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.76% to 12980.82, and the ChiNext Index decreased 1.12% to 3042.34. The trading volume was 1708.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.7 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4564.95, down 23.34 [1][2] Coke and Coking Coal Price Movement - On November 20, the coke weighted index closed at 1673.5, down 12.7, and the coking coal weighted index closed at 1140.6 yuan, down 38.0 [2][3] Market Analysis - Coke: After the fourth round of price increases, some coke enterprises are still in the red. The overall supply has decreased. Demand increased due to unexpected resumption of production in Hebei steel mills last week, but there is an expectation of seasonal decline in molten iron. The fifth round of price increases is temporarily on hold. - Coking coal: Supply has increased slightly but is limited by environmental protection and safety supervision. Although molten iron production rebounded unexpectedly last week, the profit rate of steel mills decreased. Downstream coking plants have higher inventory days than in previous years, and the mine auction failure rate is high [4] Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by sufficient supply and lower spot prices, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract fell on November 20. From January - October 2025, China imported 100 million tons of syrup and white sugar premix, a year - on - year decrease of 963600 tons [4] Rubber - On November 20, Shanghai rubber declined slightly during the day due to the weakening prospect of a December interest rate cut in the US, but rose at night due to speculation on the weather in Thailand's rubber - producing areas. In October 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 3.359 million and 3.322 million respectively, with month - on - month increases of 2.5% and 3% and year - on - year increases of 12.1% and 8.8% [4][6] Live Pigs - On November 20, the LH2601 contract closed at 11440 yuan/ton, down 1.04%. The market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. Although the decrease in temperature boosts some consumption, the demand recovery is slow due to the late Spring Festival and the impact of substitutes [6] Soybean Meal International Market - On November 20, CBOT soybean futures closed lower. The US soybean export sales were at the lower end of the forecast range. As of November 13, Brazil's soybean planting rate was 71%, lower than 80% last year, and the estimated output is 1.767 billion tons [6] Domestic Market - On November 20, the M2601 contract closed at 3017 yuan/ton, down 0.17%. The supply of imported soybeans is sufficient, and the soybean meal inventory is close to one million tons. China has purchased about one million tons of US soybeans [6] Palm Oil - On November 20, the palm oil futures P2601 contract closed at 8646, down 2.33%. From November 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 828680 tons, a 14.1% decrease from the same period last month [6] Shanghai Copper - On November 20, the Shanghai Copper 2601 contract closed at 86130 yuan/ton, up 0.19%. The macro - environment has a hawkish stance on interest rates, and the supply of copper concentrates is tight, while demand from emerging industries provides support [6] Logs - On November 20, the log 2601 contract closed at 772, with an increase of 1121 lots in positions. In October, log imports decreased by 16.3% year - on - year [6][8] Iron Ore - On November 20, the iron ore 2601 contract closed at 788.5 yuan/ton, down 0.32%. The supply and demand situation has improved marginally, but the price is in a volatile trend due to limited growth space for molten iron production [8] Asphalt - On November 20, the asphalt 2601 contract closed at 3058 yuan/ton, up 0.33%. The supply is decreasing, and the inventory is being depleted, but the demand is limited by cold weather [8] Cotton - On November 20, the Zhengzhou Cotton main contract closed at 13500 yuan/ton at night, and the inventory increased by 17 lots. The purchase price of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang was 6.1 - 6.3 yuan/kg [8] Steel - On November 20, rb2601 closed at 3050 yuan/ton, and hc2601 at 3267 yuan/ton. The steel market is in a multi - empty game situation, and the steel price is under short - term pressure due to the decline in raw material costs [8] Alumina - On November 20, the ao2601 contract closed at 2732 yuan/ton. The supply of bauxite is abundant, and the price is under pressure. The market trading volume is limited [8] Shanghai Aluminum - On November 20, the al2601 contract closed at 21570 yuan/ton. The metal market is in a volatile state. The supply of aluminum ingots is normal, and the social inventory is decreasing, while the demand shows a weakening trend [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - On November 18, 2025, the A - share market declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.81%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.92%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.16%. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1926.1 billion yuan, a slight increase of 15.3 billion yuan from the previous day. Different futures varieties showed various trends affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, international market conditions, and policy changes [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On November 18, the three major A - share indexes collectively declined, and the Shanghai Composite Index had three consecutive negative daily K - lines. The CSI 300 Index remained weak, closing at 4568.19, down 29.86 from the previous day [1][2]. Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: On November 18, the weighted coke index returned to a weak trend, closing at 1685.2, down 47.6. Supply continued to shrink due to coking losses, environmental inspections, and coal source shortages, while the increase in molten iron to 236 tons supported the rigid demand for coke [2][4]. - Coking Coal: On November 18, the weighted coking coal index was weak, closing at 1186.1 yuan, down 42.8. The resumption of production in some Shanxi coal mines led to a slight increase in coking coal output, and the passage of Mongolian coal at ports returned to a high level. The high - price procurement by downstream coking coal slowed down but was mainly for rigid demand, and coal mines had sufficient pre - sales and low inventories [3][4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by technical factors after a large short - term increase, ICE sugar oscillated and adjusted slightly lower on Monday. Constrained by factors such as the decline of ICE sugar and the reduction of spot prices, the short - sellers pressured the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract to oscillate and decline on Tuesday. After a large short - term decline, the contract oscillated and sorted out slightly lower at night. The ISO predicted a global sugar supply surplus of 1.63 million tons in the 2025/26 season, with production increasing by 3.15% to 181.77 million tons and consumption only increasing by 0.6% to 180.14 million tons. India's sugar production accelerated, and the new - season sugar output was expected to increase to 31.5 million tons, with possible exports of 2 - 2.5 million tons [4]. Rubber - Affected by technical factors after a large increase in the previous trading day, Shanghai rubber oscillated and sorted out slightly higher on Tuesday and oscillated slightly higher at night due to capital effects. In October 2025, China's rubber tire outer - tube production was 97.951 million pieces, a year - on - year decrease of 2.5%. From January to October, the production increased by 1% year - on - year to 9.96421 billion pieces. In the first 10 months of 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 8.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8% [4]. Palm Oil - On November 18, palm oil futures continued to oscillate slightly at a low level, and the oscillation range was slightly higher than the previous day. The main contract P2601 closed with a small positive K - line with upper and lower shadows, closing at 8708, up 0.32% from the previous day. Last week, the arrival of palm oil in China increased while the demand did not keep up, resulting in inventory accumulation. As of the end of the 46th week of 2025, the domestic palm oil inventory was 574,000 tons, an increase of 22,000 tons from the previous week, and the contract volume was 43,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from the previous week [5]. Live Pigs - On November 18, the LH2601 main contract closed at 11,535 yuan/ton, down 1.37%. The inventory of breeding sows remained high, corresponding to an increase in live - pig slaughter from the fourth quarter of 2025 to the beginning of 2026. The concentrated release of large - weight live pigs from small and medium - sized farms and the resumption of the slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises increased short - term supply pressure. The decrease in temperature would boost pork consumption to some extent, but the short - term pattern of strong supply and weak demand was difficult to reverse [5]. Soybean Meal - International market: On November 18, CBOT soybean futures closed lower. As of November 16, 2025, the US soybean harvest rate was 95%, compared with 98% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 96%. As of November 13, the Brazilian soybean planting rate was 71%, lower than 80% in the same period last year, and the estimated Brazilian soybean output was 176.7 million tons. - Domestic market: On November 18, the M2601 main contract closed at 3,041 yuan/ton, down 0.07%. The short - term arrival of imported soybeans was sufficient, the domestic oil - mill operating rate increased to 66% this week, and the soybean meal inventory was close to one million tons and needed to be reduced [5]. Shanghai Copper - The US government ended the shutdown, and the Fed took a hawkish stance, with the probability of a rate cut in December falling below 50%. In October, China's manufacturing production slowed down. The supply side remained tight, and although traditional consumption areas were weak, strong demand in new - energy vehicles and power - grid construction provided bottom - line support for copper prices [5]. Cotton - On the night of November 18, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 13,410 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 10 lots compared with the previous day. The purchase price of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang on November 18 was 6.1 - 6.3 yuan/kg. A 300,000 - spindle cotton - spinning project started in Jinghe County, Xinjiang [5]. Logs - On November 18, the Log 2601 contract opened at 792, with a minimum of 782.5, a maximum of 792.5, and closed at 785, with a daily reduction of 859 lots. The spot - market prices of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong decreased by 10 yuan/cubic meter to 740 yuan/cubic meter, and the prices of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 760 yuan/cubic meter. In October, the log import volume decreased by 16.3% year - on - year [5][6]. Iron Ore - On November 18, the Iron Ore 2601 main contract oscillated and rose, up 1.41%, closing at 792 yuan. The iron - ore shipment volume continued to increase slightly, the arrival volume decreased, and the molten - iron output stopped falling and increased. The short - term iron - ore price was in an oscillating trend [7]. Asphalt - On November 18, the Asphalt 2601 main contract oscillated and closed lower, down 0.36%, closing at 3,032 yuan. The asphalt supply continued to decrease, the inventory was being reduced, and the terminal demand remained weak due to cold and snowy weather, showing a pattern of weak supply and demand [7]. Steel - On November 18, rb2601 closed at 3,090 yuan/ton, and hc2601 closed at 3,286 yuan/ton. The third round and fifth batch of central environmental - protection inspections started, which might reduce steel supply in the short term and support steel prices [7]. Alumina - On November 18, ao2601 closed at 2,780 yuan/ton. The spot price stopped falling, and downstream procurement accelerated. The market was in a game between weak reality and strong expectations, and the alumina price was in a weak oscillation [7]. Shanghai Aluminum - On November 18, al2601 closed at 21,465 yuan/ton. The end of the US government shutdown increased the uncertainty of the Fed's December interest - rate decision. The hawkish stance of the Fed put pressure on non - ferrous metals. The decline in aluminum prices led to a slight recovery in consumption, but high prices still restricted consumption, and the expected increase in aluminum - ingot supply in the off - season increased the pressure of inventory accumulation [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On November 17, 2025, the A-share market showed mixed performance with major indices mostly declining, and trading volume decreased. Different futures varieties had varying price movements influenced by factors such as supply - demand, weather, and policy expectations [1][2][3][4][5] Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On November 17, the three major A - share indices collectively declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.46% to 3972.03, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.11% to 13202.00, and the ChiNext Index decreased 0.20% to 3105.20. The trading volume of the two markets was 1910.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 47.3 billion yuan from the previous trading day. The CSI 300 index was weak, closing at 4598.05, a decline of 30.9 [1][2] Coke and Coking Coal - On November 17, the coke weighted index rebounded strongly, closing at 1743.3, up 33.2. The coking coal weighted index fluctuated and closed at 1234.4 yuan, up 15.4. The fourth round of coking price increase was fully implemented this week. Coking profit was still average, and daily production decreased slightly. Coke inventory decreased slightly. Coking coal mine output increased slightly, and total inventory rose slightly [2][3][4] Zhengzhou Sugar - Although US sugar stabilized and rebounded last Friday, the Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract on November 17 did not follow. Constrained by the lower spot price, long - position liquidation pressured the futures price to decline. The Dutch Cooperative Bank predicted a 2.6 - million - ton surplus in the global sugar industry in the 2025/26 season, which may depress international prices until 2026 [4] Rubber - Thailand's weather warning of possible floods from November 18 - 22 led to short - position liquidation, pushing up the Shanghai rubber futures price on November 17. In the third quarter of 2025, the European replacement tire market sales decreased 0.6% year - on - year to 63.984 million units, and sales in the first three quarters were generally lower than in 2024 [4] Palm Oil - On November 17, palm oil futures fluctuated slightly at a low level. The main contract P2601 closed at 8680, up 0.42%. Shipping survey data showed a significant decrease in Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 15 compared to the previous month [4][5] Live Hogs - On November 17, the LH2601 main contract closed at 11695 yuan/ton, down 0.68%. The high inventory of breeding sows led to an increase in hog supply from Q4 2025 to early 2026. Demand was weak, and the short - term supply - demand imbalance was difficult to reverse [5] Soybean Meal - Internationally, on November 17, CBOT soybean futures reached the highest level since June 2024 due to improved demand prospects. US soybean export inspection and domestic soybean crushing data were positive. Domestically, the M2601 main contract closed at 3043 yuan/ton, down 1.58%. Short - term supply was sufficient, and the upward momentum of the soybean meal market may weaken [5] Shanghai Copper - Fed officials' hawkish remarks and the need for more economic data to measure the US economy led to a decline in the expectation of a December interest rate cut, weakening copper prices. Supply was tight, and demand in new energy and power grid construction provided support [5] Cotton - On the night of November 17, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13435 yuan/ton, with inventory decreasing by 5 lots. The purchase price of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang on November 17 was 6.2 - 6.3 yuan/kg. The US cotton harvest was expected to be good due to favorable weather [5] Iron Ore - On November 17, the 2601 main contract of iron ore rose 1.81% to 788.5 yuan. Iron ore shipments and domestic arrivals decreased. Although iron - water production increased, steel mill profits declined, and iron ore prices were expected to fluctuate [5] Asphalt - On November 17, the 2601 main contract of asphalt rose 0.13% to 3032 yuan. Supply and demand were both weak, with supply decreasing and demand affected by cold weather, and prices were expected to fluctuate [5][6] Logs - On November 17, the 2601 log contract had an opening price of 786, a low of 786, a high of 794, and a closing price of 789, with a reduction of 809 lots. Spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained stable. Inventory increased to a 5 - week high, and future price trends depend on multiple factors [6] Steel - On November 17, rb2601 closed at 3097 yuan/ton, and hc2601 closed at 3302 yuan/ton. Steel production cuts did not lower raw material prices, and steel costs remained high. Steel prices were expected to be slightly stronger in the short term but limited by the off - season demand [6] Alumina - On November 17, ao2601 closed at 2817 yuan/ton. Spot prices were close to the cost line, and production cuts were expected due to environmental protection. The trading atmosphere improved, but the futures price was in a low - level oscillation [6] Shanghai Aluminum - On November 17, al2601 closed at 21725 yuan/ton. The market's positive sentiment towards previous macro - policies cooled, and the probability of a December Fed interest rate cut decreased. Supply was stable, and demand was weak in November [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - On November 14, 2025, the A-share market experienced a collective decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.97%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 1.93%, and the ChiNext Index down 2.82%. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1958.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 83.9 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The prices of various futures varieties showed different trends, affected by factors such as supply and demand, policy, and international market conditions [2][3][4][5][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures - On November 14, the A-share market declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3990.49 points, the Shenzhen Component Index at 13216.03 points, and the ChiNext Index at 3111.51 points. The trading volume decreased by 83.9 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 300 Index adjusted on November 14, closing at 4628.14, a decrease of 73.93 [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On November 14, the coke weighted index was weak, closing at 1700.6, a decrease of 16.3. The coking coal weighted index was also weak, closing at 1212.4 yuan, a decrease of 18.4 [2][3]. - The downstream acceptance of the fourth round of coke price increases was poor. Coking profits were average, and daily production decreased slightly. Coke inventory decreased slightly, with downstream demand-based procurement and weak trading interest [4]. - Recently, Mongolian coal imports increased, and the number of customs clearances remained high. Coking coal mine production decreased slightly, and spot auction transactions were normal with stable prices. Terminal inventory increased slightly, and the total coking coal inventory increased slightly [4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - India will allow sugar mills to export 1.5 million tons of sugar in the 2025/26 season, lower than the previous estimate of 2 million tons. In the second half of October, only 46.02% of sugarcane in the central and southern regions of Brazil was used for sugar production, and the rest was used for ethanol fuel production. Affected by the expected decline in supply from India and Brazil, the US sugar market rose on Friday [4]. - On the night of November 14, the Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract declined due to long - liquidation pressure. In the second half of October, sugar production in the central and southern regions of Brazil increased by 16.4% year - on - year to 2.068 million tons, and sugarcane crushing volume increased by 14.3% year - on - year to 31.108 million tons [4]. Rubber - Due to the large decline in the previous trading day, the Shanghai rubber market adjusted slightly on November 14. As of November 14, the natural rubber inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 158138 tons, a decrease of 4022 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts were 108470 tons, a decrease of 10500 tons. The 20 - grade rubber inventory was 49695 tons, an increase of 1612 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts were 49695 tons, an increase of 1109 tons [4]. Live Pigs - On November 14, the LH2601 main contract closed at 11775 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.72%. The number of fertile sows remained high, leading to an increase in live pig slaughter from the fourth quarter of 2025 to the beginning of 2026. The concentrated release of large - weight live pigs from small and medium - sized farms increased market supply. The slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises gradually recovered, increasing short - term supply pressure and suppressing futures prices [5]. - The demand for live pigs was weak. There was still about half a month until the traditional bacon - curing peak season. Alternative consumption was common, and consumer enthusiasm was low. The catering and tourism industries were weak, and terminal consumption lacked support. Slaughter enterprises had poor sales, and the fresh - meat sales rate declined. Some enterprises stored meat in cold storage, and the frozen - meat inventory rate increased slightly [5]. Soybean Meal - The USDA's November supply - demand report showed that the estimated yield per acre of US soybeans in 2025 was 53.0 bushels, and the total output was 4.253 billion bushels, both lower than the September forecast and slightly lower than analysts' expectations. The unmet expectations led to short - term market selling, and the CBOT soybean futures were under pressure. The report maintained the soybean production expectations of Brazil at 175 million tons and Argentina at 48.5 million tons [5]. - On November 14, the M2601 main contract closed at 3092 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.68%. The domestic soybean meal inventory continued to decline and was below 1 million tons. The inventory pressure improved. The提货 volume increased slightly, and the livestock and poultry inventory was large. Soybean meal had a cost - performance advantage, but the soybean and soybean meal inventory was still high. The market expected the supply gap of imported soybeans to be filled, and the upward momentum of the soybean meal market might weaken [5]. Shanghai Copper - Fed officials expressed caution about further interest rate cuts before the release of important economic data, weakening the market's expectation of a December interest rate cut. China's economic operation in October was generally stable, and new development drivers continued to grow [5]. - The tight supply (such as the shutdown of the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia) and weak demand were in a game. The COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate, while the LME inventory was at a low level. Copper prices were expected to fluctuate at a high level [5]. Cotton - On the night of November 14, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13445 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory increased by 221 lots compared with the previous trading day. On November 15, the purchase price of machine - picked cotton in northern Xinjiang was 6.1 - 6.3 yuan/kg. After the US government ended the shutdown, Fed officials had differences, and the expectation of a December interest rate cut decreased [5]. Iron Ore - On November 14, the iron ore 2601 main contract closed up 0.26% at 772.5 yuan. Iron ore shipments continued to decline, and domestic arrivals also decreased. Iron - water production stopped falling and increased. Steel mills continued to purchase iron ore as needed. Affected by the expected monetary easing from the central bank, iron ore prices fluctuated in the short term [5]. Asphalt - On November 14, the asphalt 2601 main contract closed up 0.1% at 3037 yuan. Asphalt supply continued to decline, and inventory decreased. Road construction projects were coming to an end, and shipments decreased significantly. Terminal demand was weak, and the market was in a situation of weak supply and demand. Asphalt prices were expected to fluctuate in the short term [6]. Logs - On November 14, the 2601 log contract opened at 778, with a low of 778, a high of 791, and closed at 788.5, with a daily reduction of 1618 lots. The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, and that in Jiangsu was 760 yuan/cubic meter, both unchanged from the previous day. The inventory of logs continued to increase, reaching a four - week high. Attention should be paid to the spot price, import data, inventory changes, and market sentiment [6]. Steel - With the cooling and snow in the north, construction intensity decreased significantly, and seasonal demand declined. Although there was still some construction volume in the south, the procurement rhythm slowed down, and market transactions decreased. The rebar market was at a critical point of supply - demand contraction and inventory cycle conversion. Low inventory gave some resilience to prices, and improved macro - expectations provided bottom support [6]. - Terminal users' funds did not improve significantly, and rigid - demand replenishment was the main operation. Speculative demand almost disappeared. In some low - inventory areas, there were shortages of some specifications, supporting the resistance of local spot prices. In the short term, the pressure of inventory accumulation in the off - season was emerging [6]. Alumina - In the raw material sector, some domestic mines resumed production, and the rainy season in Guinea ended, alleviating the tight supply of bauxite. Currently, the operating capacity and production of alumina were high, and the spot price was low, which might affect smelter profits. Some high - cost enterprises might cut production, and the oversupply situation in the domestic market would gradually ease with production control [6]. - The electrolytic aluminum capacity was approaching the domestic ceiling, and the demand for alumina remained relatively stable. Overall, the alumina market might be in a stage of slightly reduced supply and relatively stable demand, and the oversupply situation might improve with production control [6]. Shanghai Aluminum - In the raw material sector, the price rebounded slightly but remained low. The spot price of aluminum was strong, and smelters had good profits and high production enthusiasm. The domestic operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was approaching the industry limit, and the production rate was high. With good profits and high production, the domestic supply of electrolytic aluminum remained high [6]. - On the demand side, some downstream industries of aluminum products were transitioning from the peak season to the off - season, and the high aluminum price inhibited downstream purchases to some extent. The demand for electrolytic aluminum might slow down. Overall, the electrolytic aluminum market might be in a stage of stable supply and demand, and social inventory was accumulating slightly [6].

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on November 13, 2025 - A-share market: The three major A-share indices strengthened. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.73% to 4029.50, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.78% to 13476.52, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.55% to 3201.75. The trading volume reached 2042 billion yuan, up 96.9 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - CSI 300 Index: Closed at 4702.07, up 56.17 [2]. - Futures market: - Coking coal and coke: The coking coal weighted index closed at 1230.3 yuan, down 6.8; the coke weighted index closed at 1716.4, down 7.0 [2][3]. - Zhengzhou Sugar: The Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract oscillated upward during the day and consolidated slightly higher at night [4]. - Rubber: Affected by the increase in Southeast Asian spot prices, the Shanghai Rubber futures oscillated higher during the day and consolidated slightly higher at night [4]. - Palm oil: The palm oil futures closed up slightly, with the main contract P2601 closing at 8752, up 0.09% [6]. - Shanghai Copper: The main - contract of Shanghai Copper rose 0.82% to 87550 yuan/ton [6]. - Cotton: The main contract of Zhengzhou Cotton closed at 13475 yuan/ton at night, and the inventory increased by 296 lots [6]. - Logs: The 2601 contract opened at 776.5, closed at 783.5, and decreased 212 lots in positions [6]. - Iron ore: The 2601 main contract of iron ore closed up 0.26% at 772.5 yuan [7]. - Asphalt: The 2601 main contract of asphalt closed down 1.05% at 3029 yuan [7]. - Steel: rb2601 closed at 3046 yuan/ton, hc2601 closed at 3254 yuan/ton [9]. - Alumina: ao2601 closed at 2840 yuan/ton [9]. - Shanghai Aluminum: al2601 closed at 22050 yuan/ton [9]. 2. Supply - demand Analysis - Coking coal and coke: - Coke: The third - round increase in spot procurement prices was implemented. Supply decreased due to environmental protection and high coking coal prices; demand weakened as steel mills increased production cuts [4]. - Coking coal: Supply was slightly tight due to mine inspections, but downstream acceptance of high - priced goods decreased, and auction prices dropped [4]. - Sugar: The 2024/25 annual sugar import volume was adjusted down by 380,000 tons to 4.62 million tons. The 2025/26 production was predicted to be 11.7 million tons, up 500,000 tons from the previous month; consumption was predicted to be 15.7 million tons, down 200,000 tons [4]. - Rubber: In October, the national passenger car retail volume was 2.242 million, down 0.8% year - on - year and 0.1% month - on - month [4][6]. - Palm oil: Indonesia may reduce palm oil exports by 11% - 12% in 2026 due to the implementation of B50 biodiesel [6]. - Steel: This week, the supply of five major steel products was 8.3438 million tons, down 223,600 tons (2.6%) week - on - week; the total inventory was 14.7735 million tons, down 262,200 tons (1.7%) week - on - week [9]. - Alumina: Most regions' spot prices stabilized. Downstream enterprises maintained on - demand procurement, and the supply - demand contradiction was still prominent [9]. - Aluminum: In November 2025, winter environmental protection affected some enterprises' production, and demand was suppressed by high prices and environmental protection policies [9]. 3. Market Outlook - Iron ore: In the short term, the price will oscillate due to supply - demand weakness and the central bank's monetary easing expectations [7]. - Asphalt: In the short term, the price will oscillate in a supply - demand weak pattern [7]. - Steel: In the short term, steel prices will continue to be weak as the off - season approaches and the market is mainly influenced by industry factors [9]. - Alumina: Attention should be paid to the mid - month northern heating season production restrictions, which may drive the price to recover [9]. - Aluminum: In the short term, aluminum prices will oscillate at a high level due to positive macro signals and off - season demand [9].

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on November 12, 2025 - A-shares: The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4000.14, down 0.07%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13240.62, down 0.36%; the ChiNext Index closed at 3122.03, down 0.39%. The trading volume of the two markets was 1945 billion yuan, a decrease of 48.6 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - CSI 300 Index: Closed at 4645.91, down 6.26 [2]. 2. Futures Market 2.1 Energy Futures - Coke: The weighted index closed at 1722.3, down 29.7. A large - scale coking enterprise in the northwest is rumored to raise the price of chemical coke by 50 yuan/ton. The demand for coal and coke is seasonally weak due to increased losses in downstream steel mills and a decline in pig iron production [2][4]. - Coking Coal: The weighted index closed at 1239.3 yuan, down 17.6. In the medium - to - long - term, production inspection and safety policies will limit supply elasticity, and the expected winter storage demand will limit the downside of spot prices [3][4]. 2.2 Agricultural Futures - Sugar: Datagro lowered the forecast of the global sugar market surplus in the 2025/26 season to 1 million tons from 2.8 million tons. The Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract oscillated and closed slightly lower [4]. - Rubber: Affected by a 14.8% month - on - month decline in Malaysia's natural rubber production in September and rising crude oil prices, Shanghai rubber oscillated higher. In September 2025, Malaysia's natural rubber production was 26,647 tons, down 14.8% from August [4][6]. - Palm Oil: The futures contract P2601 oscillated slightly within the range, closing at 8744, down 0.3%. The estimated export volume of Malaysian palm oil from November 1 - 10 decreased by 49.53% compared to the same period last month [6]. - Cotton: The Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 13475 yuan/ton at night on Wednesday. Cotton inventory increased by 265 lots. The downstream yarn mills are in the off - season, and the trading atmosphere is light [6]. 2.3 Metal Futures - Copper: The main contract oscillated and closed up at 86840 yuan/ton. Supported by domestic policies and a tight global copper mine supply, but limited by weak downstream demand, it showed a narrow - range oscillation pattern [6]. - Iron Ore: The 2601 main contract oscillated and rose by 1.38%, closing at 774 yuan. Both the shipping volume and domestic arrival volume declined, and the market was in a situation of weak supply and demand. However, the central bank's loose monetary policy expectation led to an oscillating trend [7]. - Steel: The rb2601 contract closed at 3038 yuan/ton, and the hc2601 contract closed at 3255 yuan/ton. The steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the steel price may continue to oscillate narrowly [8]. - Alumina: The ao2601 contract closed at 2821 yuan/ton. There will be no large - scale production cuts in the short term, but future supply - demand contradictions may intensify [8]. - Aluminum: The al2601 contract closed at 21880 yuan/ton. The expectation of a tight supply - demand balance for primary aluminum in the future is the main reason for the high price. The supply is stable, and the demand shows strong resilience [8]. 2.4 Others - Logs: The 2601 contract opened at 778, closed at 778.5, and added 394 lots in positions. The inventory continued to increase, and future price trends depend on the spot market, import data, and inventory changes [6][7].