国新国证期货早报 2026 年 3 月 3 日 星期二 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周一 （3 月 2 日）A 股三大指数涨跌不一，截止收盘，沪指涨 0.47%，收报 4182.59 点；深 证成指跌 0.20%，收报 14465.79 点；创业板指跌 0.49%，收报 3294.16 点。沪深京三市成交额达到 3.04 万亿， 较上一交易日大幅放量 5398 亿。 沪深 300 指数 3 月 2 日强势。收盘 4728.67，环比上涨 18.02。（数据来源：东方财富网） 客服产品系列•日评 【焦炭 焦煤】3 月 2 日焦炭加权指数震荡整理，收盘价 1660.8，环比上涨 22.9。 3 月 2 日焦煤加权指数窄幅整理，收盘价 1113.5 元，环比上涨 12.8。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：2 月天津准一级冶金焦价格不变，吕梁准一、唐山一级冶金焦价格不变，日照准一级冶金焦价格涨 10 元/吨。焦化企业生产利润有所改善，目前焦化企业吨焦亏损 10 元/吨左右，2 月部分焦化企业复工复产，独立 焦企日均产量增加 1.45 万吨，247 家钢厂焦炭日均产量增加 0.09 万吨。需求，2 月钢厂 ...

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2026 年 3 月 2 日 星期一 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周五 （2 月 27 日） A 股三大指数涨跌不一，截止收盘，沪指涨 0.39%，收报 4162.88 点； 深证成指跌 0.06%，收报 14495.09 点；创业板指跌 1.04%，收报 3310.30 点。沪深京三市成交额达到 2.51 万亿， 较昨日小幅缩量 504 亿。 沪深 300 指数 2 月 27 日震荡整理。收盘 4710.65，环比下跌 16.23。（数据来源：东方财富网） 【焦炭 焦煤】2 月 27 日焦炭加权指数弱势依旧，收盘价 1643.8，环比下跌 16.2。 2 月 27 日焦煤加权指数弱势震荡，收盘价 1110.9 元，环比下跌 4.8。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：焦企盈利一般，开工率小幅下滑。仍有提降预期。下游钢厂利润较前期有所修复，但铁水产量触底反 弹幅度有限。钢厂以消耗自身库存为主，补库积极性一般，对焦炭维持按需采购节奏。 根据海关总署公布的出口焦炭数据，1–12 月中国焦炭出口总量为 794.11 万吨，同比降 4.53%。其中 12 月 焦炭出口 ...

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2026 年 2 月 27 日 星期五 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：港口焦炭现货市场报价上涨，日照港准一级冶金焦现货价格 1480 元/吨，较上期价格涨 10。供应， 焦化企业大多维持着正常生产，暂无较大变化，厂内库存有所累积，随着节后运输逐步恢复，整体库存压力逐渐 减弱。需求，唐山等多地部分钢厂已接到两会期间临时自主减排通知，部分钢厂成材销售情况一般，整体采购需 求一般。 品种观点： 焦煤：山西吕梁地区主焦煤（A8.5、S1.3、G75）下调 30 元至出厂价 1280 元/吨，甘其毛都口岸蒙 5#原煤 1010 元/吨，价格涨 4；蒙 3#精煤 1085 元/吨，较上期价格跌 15。供应，主产地煤矿逐步复产，焦煤供应陆续恢 复，市场供需两端均处于恢复阶段。需求，焦化企业虽已陆续恢复生产，整体开工率提升缓慢，多数焦企仍以消 化节前库存为主。（数据来源：东方财富网） 【股指期货】 周四 （2 月 26 日） A 股三大指数涨跌不一，截止收盘，沪指跌 0.01%，收报 4146.63 点； 深证成指涨 0.19%，收报 14503.79 点；创业板指跌 0 ...

国新国证期货早报 2026 年 2 月 26 日 星期四 客服产品系列•日评 【股指期货】 周三 （2 月 25 日） A 股三大指数集体上涨，截止收盘，沪指涨 0.72%，收报 4147.23 点； 深证成指涨 1.29%，收报 14475.87 点；创业板指涨 1.41%，收报 3354.82 点。沪深京三市成交额达到 24812 亿， 较昨日放量 2628 亿。 沪深 300 指数 2 月 25 日强势依旧。收盘 4735.89，环比上涨 28.34。（数据来源：东方财富网） 【焦炭 焦煤】2 月 25 日焦炭加权指数宽幅震荡，收盘价 1680.8，环比上涨 38.1。 2 月 25 日焦煤加权指数区间整理，收盘价 1139.8 元，环比上涨 25.4。 品种观点： 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：多数焦企春节期间维持正常生产，开工率变化不大，部分焦企厂内库存有所积压。需求，春节期间终 端需求基本停滞，加之钢厂节前原料已补充至合理水平，节后对原料主动补库意愿偏弱。 焦煤：国营煤矿基本恢复正常生产；民营煤矿近期将逐步复产；蒙煤三大进口口岸正月初一至初四闭关，节 后将恢复正常通关。需求，假期期 ...

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2026 年 2 月 25 日 星期三 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周二 （2 月 24 日） A 股迎来马年开门红，截止收盘，沪指涨 0.87%，收报 4117.41 点；深 证成指涨 1.36%，收报 14291.57 点；创业板指涨 0.99%，收报 3308.26 点。沪深京三市成交额达到 22184 亿，较 上一交易日放量 2193 亿。 沪深 300 指数 2 月 24 日强势。收盘 4707.54，环比上涨 47.14。（数据来源：东方财富网） 客服产品系列•日评 【焦炭 焦煤】2 月 24 日焦炭加权指数弱势，收盘价 1641.3，环比下跌 38.1。 2 月 24 日焦煤加权指数震荡整理，收盘价 1115.5 元，环比下跌 18.7。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：焦企维持正常运行负荷持稳。库存受春节物流运输影响，场内库存有所累库。需求，钢厂开工有所下 滑，铁水产量支撑有限，终端需求处淡季，对焦炭的需求进一步削弱。 焦煤：焦企维持前期负荷。库存去库明显，多数处偏低水平。利润维持在盈亏平衡线附近。进口，港口库存 有所下降，但整体供需格局仍然偏 ...

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on February 11, 2026 - A-shares: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.09% to 4131.99, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.35% to 14160.93, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.08% to 3284.74. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2001.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 123.7 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - CSI 300 Index: Closed at 4713.82, a decrease of 10.48 from the previous day [2]. 2. Commodity Futures 2.1. Coking Coal and Coke - Coke: The weighted index of coke showed a weak oscillation, closing at 1672.6, a decrease of 14.0 from the previous day. Spot price increases have been implemented, and coke enterprises' profits have recovered, with a slight increase in production enthusiasm. However, environmental protection restrictions still have an impact, and the weekly high - frequency data shows a slight increase in the operating rate of coke enterprises. Steel mills' pre - holiday inventory replenishment is basically over [2][4]. - Coking Coal: The weighted index of coking coal showed a weak consolidation, closing at 1134.9 yuan, a decrease of 3.1 from the previous day. The scope of Spring Festival shutdowns in domestic coal mines has expanded this week, and domestic coal supply has entered a seasonal low, with production decreasing month - on - month. Spot supply is tight, and high - frequency data shows that Mongolian coal customs clearance remains at a high level, with continuous replenishment of imported resources. Coke enterprises' inventory preparation is basically completed, and they mainly purchase on demand, with pig iron production stabilizing at a low level [3][4]. 2.2. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the expectation of global supply surplus, US sugar oscillated and declined on Tuesday. Affected by the decline of US sugar and the reduction of spot quotes, long - position liquidation pressured the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract to oscillate downward on Wednesday. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) said on Tuesday that the US sugar production in the 2025/26 season starting in October is expected to reach a record high of 9.41 million short tons, helped by the increase in cane sugar production. The sugar inventory/use ratio is estimated to be 15.9%, much higher than the 13.5% level that the USDA usually considers sufficient for the market. The estimated sugar import volume in the 2025/26 season is 2.24 million short tons, lower than the 3.39 million short tons in the previous season, which will be one of the lowest import volumes in recent years [4]. 2.3. Rubber - Due to the decrease in raw material supply, the spot quotes in Southeast Asia were raised today. Affected by this, the Shanghai rubber oscillated higher on Wednesday. Due to the large short - term increase, affected by the technical side, the Shanghai rubber oscillated and adjusted at night, with varieties rising and falling. The latest data shows that the natural rubber export volume of Cote d'Ivoire in January 2026 was 163,000 tons, a decrease of 1.8% compared with 166,000 tons in the same period last year and a month - on - month decrease of 5.8%. Vietnam's rubber export volume in January was 204,954 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.1% but a year - on - year increase of 27.3% [4]. 2.4. Palm Oil - On February 11, the palm oil futures continued to operate weakly before the festival. The market oscillated within the daily range. By the afternoon close, the main contract P2605 of palm oil closed with a doji candlestick with upper and lower shadows. The highest price was 8950, the lowest price was 8886, and the closing price was 8950, a decrease of 0.38% from the previous trading day. According to the POC 2026 industry conference, driven by the low inventory level, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil in 2026 is expected to reach 16 million tons, while the annual total output may be slightly lower than 20 million tons. Global palm oil industry analyst Thomas Mielke expects the price of Malaysian RBD palm olein to be between $1000 - $1200 per ton in the first half of 2026 and between $1100 - $1350 per ton in the second half of 2026 [5]. 2.5. Soybean Meal - International Market: On February 11 (Wednesday), CBOT soybean futures closed slightly higher. The USDA's February supply - demand report was as expected, only slightly increasing the South American soybean production forecast. The report raised the Brazilian soybean production forecast from 178 million tons last month to 180 million tons, higher than market expectations. Agricultural consulting firm AgRural said that as of February 5, the Brazilian soybean harvest progress had reached 16%, higher than 15% in the same period last year. The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (Anec) said that Brazil's soybean exports in February are expected to be 11.71 million tons, significantly increasing the supply capacity to the international market. - Domestic Market: On February 11, the main soybean meal contract M2605 closed at 2773 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.43%. Before the festival, the soybean crushing volume of oil mills remained high, the soybean crushing volume was relatively high, the soybean meal output increased, and the inventory continued to rise. The purchase of imported soybeans for the March shipment has been basically completed, and the arrival volume of Brazilian soybeans in April and May will significantly increase. The pre - holiday demand boost effect has declined, and the expectation of loose supply has been continuously postponed. It is recommended to focus on the South American weather changes and the soybean arrival volume in the future [5]. 2.6. Live Pigs - On February 11 (Wednesday), the main live pig contract LH2605 closed at 11,555 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.74% from the previous trading day. On the supply side, as the pre - holiday slaughter window narrows, the price - holding mentality of the breeding side has loosened, and the incremental slaughter operations of group pig enterprises and individual pig farms have increased. Moreover, the supply of suitable - weight standard pigs in February is still at a high level, and the suitable - weight pig sources are facing over - supply pressure, with the overall market supply tending to be loose. On the demand side, as the Spring Festival approaches, the phenomenon of residents' inventory replenishment has increased, providing phased support for pig prices, but the overall demand boost is limited. In the future, focus on the inventory of breeding sows and the slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises [5]. 2.7. Shanghai Copper - The main Shanghai copper contract opened at 101,660, reached a high of 102,530, a low of 101,510, and closed at 102,180, with a settlement price of 101,930. The trading volume was 94,600 lots, and the open interest was 159,000 lots. It oscillated slightly stronger within a narrow range during the day and closed slightly higher at the end of the session. Downstream industries (cables, home appliances, infrastructure) have successively stopped work, the spot demand has weakened, and the trading has been light. The average price of Yangtze River No. 1 copper was 101,430 (- 550, - 0.54%); SMM No. 1 copper was 101,100 - 101,530 (average price - 410). The futures were stronger than the spot, the basis weakened, and the funds were more cautious approaching the Spring Festival. The LME copper in the external market also strengthened slightly, and the domestic sentiment was relatively stable. In the future, pay attention to the US CPI data, which may affect the overall rhythm of the US dollar and non - ferrous metals [5]. 2.8. Cotton - On Wednesday night, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 14,815 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory increased by 60 lots compared with the previous trading day. Textile enterprises mainly purchase raw materials for rigid demand, and China's imported cotton volume in 2025 reached a five - year low [5]. 2.9. Logs - The main log contract 2603 opened at 772 on Wednesday, with a low of 772, a high of 780.5, and a close of 777, with a daily reduction of 553 lots. There are still two trading days before the festival. Pay attention to the support from the spot side and the margin - increasing market before the festival. On February 11, the spot market quotes for logs: the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day; the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 780 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day. Although the external market has raised prices, the domestic spot market is stable before the festival, and the situation needs to be verified after the festival. In the future, pay attention to the spot price, import data, inventory changes, and the support of macro - expected market sentiment for prices [6]. 2.10. Iron Ore - On February 11, the main iron ore contract 2605 oscillated and closed down, with a decline of 0.07% and a closing price of 762.5 yuan. The shipment of Australian and Brazilian iron ore in this period decreased month - on - month, the domestic arrival volume also decreased, the port inventory continued to accumulate, the steel mills' inventory replenishment demand gradually ended, and the growth space of pig iron production was limited. The short - term iron ore price is in an oscillating trend [6]. 2.11. Asphalt - On February 11, the main asphalt contract 2604 oscillated and closed up, with an increase of 0.51% and a closing price of 3373 yuan. The asphalt supply remained at a low level, the refinery inventory pressure was not large, the terminal demand continued to shrink, the pre - holiday spot trading was light, and the short - term asphalt price showed an oscillating operation [6]. 2.12. Steel - On February 11, rb2605 closed at 3054 yuan/ton, and hc2605 closed at 3228 yuan/ton. As the Chinese Spring Festival holiday approaches, more steel enterprises have stopped production for maintenance. Although steel enterprises are in the process of shutdown and maintenance, the downstream terminal demand has basically stagnated, the steel spot inventory has continued to accumulate, the supply and demand are difficult to form a large gap, the supply and demand basically maintain a weak balance structure, most merchants are cautious and wait - and - see, and the situation of having prices but no transactions is obvious [6]. 2.13. Alumina - On February 11, ao2605 closed at 2842 yuan/ton. Downstream electrolytic aluminum plants maintain full production to provide rigid demand, but the construction in terminal fields such as construction has declined due to the approaching Spring Festival. On the cost side, the prices of bauxite and caustic soda have declined, and the cost - side support has weakened. The overall supply - demand pattern of alumina still maintains a relatively loose pattern, the upward driving force is limited, and the alumina price maintains an oscillating operation in the low - level range [6]. 2.14. Shanghai Aluminum - On February 11, al2603 closed at 23,660 yuan/ton. On the macro side, the market atmosphere has continued to weaken before the Spring Festival, precious metals have continued to fluctuate in a narrow range at a high level, and the capital sentiment is relatively mild. Continue to pay attention to the dynamics of the Federal Reserve and geopolitics. On the fundamental supply side, the operation is stable, the aluminum - water ratio continues to decline, the ingot - casting volume increases, the social inventory continues to accumulate, and it is continuously at a high level year - on - year. On the demand side, the performance continues to shrink, the logistics and transportation have stagnated, downstream enterprises in Central China have made sporadic inventory replenishment, large - scale traders in South China have received goods, and the overall trading has slowed down. Large - scale downstream processing plants maintain a certain demand, the orders of small and medium - sized factories continue to shrink, and the scope of shutdowns and production cuts in small and medium - sized factories has expanded, with limited driving force for prices [6].

Report Summary on February 11, 2026 Overall Market Performance - On February 10, A-share market's three major indices fluctuated. Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.13% to 4128.37, Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.02% to 14210.63, and ChiNext Index fell 0.37% to 3320.54. The total trading volume of Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2.1249 trillion yuan, a decrease of 145.5 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 index fluctuated and closed at 4724.30, up 5.24 [2]. Commodity Futures Coal - Coke and Coking Coal - On February 10, the coke weighted index was weak, closing at 1670.5, down 28.4. The coking coal weighted index trended weakly, closing at 1129.8 yuan, down 19.3 [2][3]. - For coke, port spot prices were stable. Supply was normal, but demand was average, with poor sales and increasing inventory pressure. For coking coal, prices in some areas decreased. Supply tightened as private mines went on holiday, and demand weakened as steel mills' profits were poor and winter - storage replenishment was mostly finished [4]. Sugar - Due to the dollar index hitting a one - week low, the US sugar rose on Monday. Supported by the US sugar's rebound and higher spot prices, the Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract rose on Tuesday and had a narrow - range night session [4]. Rubber - As the Southeast Asian rubber - producing areas entered the off - season, supply decreased, and with rising crude oil prices, spot prices increased. The Shanghai rubber futures rose slightly on Tuesday and continued to rise at night. However, with expected pre - holiday arrivals and completed downstream stocking, Qingdao port's inventory increased. As of February 8, 2026, the total inventory in Qingdao was 6.068 million tons, up 2.55% [4][5]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on February 10, CBOT soybean futures rose due to optimistic export demand and strong soybean oil futures. The USDA raised Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production forecast to 180 million tons. Domestically, on February 10, the main soybean meal contract M2605 closed at 2734 yuan/ton, up 0.18%. Pre - holiday soybean crushing was high, and inventory rose. By the end of the 6th week of 2026, domestic soybean meal inventory was 1.0626 million tons, up 7.98%. It's suggested to track South American weather and soybean arrivals [5]. Live Hogs - On February 10, the main live hog contract LH2605 closed at 11470 yuan/ton, down 0.82%. Supply was abundant as pre - holiday selling increased, and there was an oversupply of suitable - weight pigs. Demand was in the seasonal peak, but in the medium - term, the supply - demand imbalance would persist. It's important to monitor sow inventory and large - scale pig farm selling rhythms [5]. Palm Oil - On February 10, palm oil futures continued to decline. The main contract P2605 closed at 8940, down 0.82%. In January, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 11.44%, inventory decreased by 7.72%, production decreased by 13.78%, and imports decreased by 2.93% [5]. Copper - The main copper contract had an intraday high - and - low fluctuation. Pre - holiday liquidity decreased. Spot prices were firm, and downstream pre - holiday stocking improved. Externally, a stronger dollar due to reduced Fed rate - cut expectations pressured the market, while domestic purchase - reserve expectations provided support [5]. Cotton - On Tuesday night, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 14680 yuan/ton, with an inventory increase of 106 lots. Textile enterprises mainly made rigid purchases, and Indian cotton trading was active due to tariff agreements [5][6]. Iron Ore - On February 10, the main iron ore contract 2605 closed flat at 761.5 yuan. Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments and domestic arrivals decreased, port inventory increased, and steel mills' replenishment was mostly finished. Short - term prices were expected to fluctuate [6]. Asphalt - On February 10, the main asphalt contract 2603 closed flat at 3343 yuan. Supply was low, refinery inventory pressure was small, but terminal demand was shrinking, and pre - holiday trading was light. Short - term prices would fluctuate [6]. Logs - The main log contract 2603 opened at 770.5 on Tuesday, with a low of 765, a high of 778.5, and closed at 773.5, with 754 lots of position reduction. Spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu were stable. Port coniferous log inventory decreased for three weeks. Attention should be paid to spot prices, import data, and inventory changes [6][7]. Steel - On February 10, rb2605 was at 3052 yuan/ton and hc2605 was at 3220 yuan/ton. The domestic steel market was in holiday mode, downstream demand stopped, and pre - holiday prices were stable. Most construction enterprises would resume work after the Lantern Festival [7]. Alumina - On February 10, ao2605 was at 2835 yuan/ton. Demand was supported by high electrolytic aluminum operating rates but with a slower purchase rhythm. Supply was abundant, and inventory continued to increase. There was support near the cost line [7]. Aluminum - On February 10, al2603 was at 23515 yuan/ton. Before the Spring Festival, the market atmosphere cooled. Supply was stable, ingot production increased, and social inventory accumulated. Demand continued to contract, and the impact on prices was limited [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share market shows a rebound, with the Spring Festival market possibly continuing and a general rise expected; focus on the supplementary increase elasticity of weighted indexes [7] - Bond market sentiment improves, and the short - term rebound trend may continue, but the odds have significantly decreased [8] - Black commodities such as steel and iron ore are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and some high - position short orders of iron ore can be held in the medium term [11] - Double - coke prices may fluctuate and consolidate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the resumption of production at coal mines and the recovery of downstream demand after the Spring Festival [13] - For iron alloys, manganese ore has strong short - term support, manganese silicon is in an oscillatory range, and silicon iron can be a long - allocation variety in the medium term [14] - For soda ash and glass, it is advisable to wait and see currently, focusing on the supply stability of leading enterprises and the progress of new capacity reaching production [15] - Copper prices are mainly in a wide - range oscillation in the short term, and fundamentals still support prices [16] - Carbonate lithium is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival, and opportunities for buying on dips after the correction can be concerned [17] - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are in an oscillatory state, with limited downward adjustment space for industrial silicon and polysilicon oscillating widely [18] - Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be in a high - level consolidation state, and short - term trading is recommended [20] - Zhengzhou sugar is expected to oscillate and rebound, and short - term trading in the low - position range before the Spring Festival is recommended [23] - For eggs, it is recommended to reduce positions and wait and see before the Spring Festival, and pay attention to the impact of chicken culling and molting after the festival on second - quarter contracts [25] - High - quality apple supplies may continue to be strong, and the futures price may run strongly [26] - Corn prices are expected to be stable before the Spring Festival, and opportunities after the festival should be concerned [28] - Red dates are expected to oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to the market performance during the consumption peak season [29] - The spot price of live pigs is lower than expected, and the near - month contract may decline further [30] - Crude oil prices are expected to have limited room for rebound and mainly oscillate [32] - Fuel oil prices will fluctuate with crude oil prices [33] - Polyolefins are expected to oscillate weakly, and caution should be exercised to prevent correction risks [34] - Rubber is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival, and short - selling out - of - the - money put options or low - level accumulation can be considered [35] - Synthetic rubber may correct before the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to opportunities for long - buying after the festival [36] - Methanol's fundamentals are slightly improved in the long term, but caution should be exercised due to uncertainties in the Middle East situation [37] - Caustic soda can be considered from a long - biased perspective for the time being [38] - Asphalt will fluctuate with crude oil prices and is stronger than crude oil [39] - PVC may enter a correction stage later, and caution should be exercised [40] - The polyester chain is expected to follow crude oil prices to oscillate and adjust in the short term, and inter - variety arbitrage opportunities of long TA and short EG can be considered [42] - LPG prices will follow crude oil prices, and caution should be exercised in trading [43] - Pulp prices have limited downward space in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [44] - Log prices may decline under the expectation of supply exceeding demand after the festival, and attention should be paid to position control [44] - Urea futures should be treated with an oscillatory mindset [45] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Based on Fundamental Judgments - **Trend Bearish**: No specific varieties mentioned - **Oscillating Bearish**: Eggs, red dates, etc. [2][29] - **Oscillating**: Coke, PTA, etc. [4] - **Oscillating Bullish**: Caustic soda, glass, etc. [2][15] - **Trend Bullish**: No specific varieties mentioned 3.2 Based on Quantitative Indicators - **Bearish**: Sugar, coke, etc. [4] - **Oscillating**: Hot - rolled coils, eggs, etc. [4] - **Bullish**: Rebar, glass, etc. [4] 3.3 Macro Information - The first inspection in the "15th Five - Year Plan" period highlights the importance of technological self - reliance [10] - The stock exchanges optimize refinancing measures, focusing on high - quality listed companies and the technology innovation field [10] - The Chinese government makes a solemn statement on the Japanese prime minister's expected continued tenure [10] - Chongqing introduces a package of real - estate policies, including purchase subsidies [10] - The first global humanoid robot free - fighting league is launched [10] - Goldman Sachs reports that the global memory market will face a severe supply shortage from 2026 - 2027 [10] - The US plans to lower tariffs on Bangladeshi goods [10] - The US employment growth data is expected to slow down [10] - The Japanese prime minister plans to promote food tax cuts [10] 3.4 Macro Finance - **Stock Index Futures**: The Spring Festival market may continue, and there is a possibility of a general rise. Focus on the supplementary increase elasticity of weighted indexes [7] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market sentiment improves, and the short - term rebound trend may continue, but the odds have significantly decreased [8] 3.5 Black Commodities - **Screw and Ore**: The trading rhythm is earlier this year. Steel inventories may be high after the festival. Iron ore supply is abundant, and the overall is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [11] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Double - coke prices may oscillate and consolidate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the resumption of production at coal mines and the recovery of downstream demand after the Spring Festival [13] - **Ferroalloys**: Manganese ore has strong short - term support, manganese silicon is in an oscillatory range, and silicon iron can be a long - allocation variety in the medium term [14] - **Soda Ash and Glass**: It is advisable to wait and see currently, focusing on the supply stability of leading enterprises and the progress of new capacity reaching production [15] 3.6 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: Copper prices are mainly in a wide - range oscillation in the short term, and fundamentals still support prices [16] - **Carbonate Lithium**: It is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival, and opportunities for buying on dips after the correction can be concerned [17] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon has limited downward adjustment space, and polysilicon oscillates widely [18] 3.7 Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be in a high - level consolidation state, and short - term trading is recommended [20] - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar is expected to oscillate and rebound, and short - term trading in the low - position range before the Spring Festival is recommended [23] - **Eggs**: It is recommended to reduce positions and wait and see before the Spring Festival, and pay attention to the impact of chicken culling and molting after the festival on second - quarter contracts [25] - **Apples**: High - quality apple supplies may continue to be strong, and the futures price may run strongly [26] - **Corn**: Corn prices are expected to be stable before the Spring Festival, and opportunities after the festival should be concerned [28] - **Red Dates**: Red dates are expected to oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to the market performance during the consumption peak season [29] - **Live Pigs**: The spot price of live pigs is lower than expected, and the near - month contract may decline further [30] 3.8 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Crude oil prices are expected to have limited room for rebound and mainly oscillate [32] - **Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil prices will fluctuate with crude oil prices [33] - **Plastics**: Polyolefins are expected to oscillate weakly, and caution should be exercised to prevent correction risks [34] - **Rubber**: Rubber is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival, and short - selling out - of - the - money put options or low - level accumulation can be considered [35] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Synthetic rubber may correct before the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to opportunities for long - buying after the festival [36] - **Methanol**: Methanol's fundamentals are slightly improved in the long term, but caution should be exercised due to uncertainties in the Middle East situation [37] - **Caustic Soda**: Caustic soda can be considered from a long - biased perspective for the time being [38] - **Asphalt**: Asphalt will fluctuate with crude oil prices and is stronger than crude oil [39] - **PVC**: PVC may enter a correction stage later, and caution should be exercised [40] - **Polyester Chain**: The polyester chain is expected to follow crude oil prices to oscillate and adjust in the short term, and inter - variety arbitrage opportunities of long TA and short EG can be considered [42] - **LPG**: LPG prices will follow crude oil prices, and caution should be exercised in trading [43] - **Pulp**: Pulp prices have limited downward space in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [44] - **Logs**: Log prices may decline under the expectation of supply exceeding demand after the festival, and attention should be paid to position control [44] - **Urea**: Urea futures should be treated with an oscillatory mindset [45]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on February 9, 2026 - A-share market: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.41% to 4123.09, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.17% to 14208.44, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.98% to 3332.77. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges reached 2.27 trillion yuan, an increase of 106.7 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1]. - Futures market: - CSI 300 Index: Closed at 4719.06, up 75.46 [2]. - Coke: The weighted index closed at 1708.5, down 17.6 [2]. - Coking coal: The weighted index closed at 1157.4 yuan, down 7.0 [3]. - Zhengzhou Sugar 2605: Oscillated higher during the day and night sessions, boosted by the increase in spot prices and capital inflows [4]. - Rubber: Oscillated higher during the day and night sessions, influenced by the positive heavy - truck sales data in January [4]. - Palm oil: The main contract P2605 closed at 9014, down 0.13% [5]. - Soybean Meal: The main contract M2605 closed at 2729 yuan/ton, down 0.22% [5]. - Live Pigs: The main contract LH2605 closed at 11565 yuan/ton, down 0.52% [5]. - Shanghai Copper: The main contract showed a strong - internal and stable - external pattern, closing at 101840 yuan/ton [5]. - Cotton: The main contract of Zhengzhou Cotton closed at 14630 yuan/ton at night, with an increase of 5 lots in inventory [5]. - Iron Ore: The 2605 main contract closed down 0.46% at 761.5 yuan [6]. - Asphalt: The 2603 main contract closed down 0.98% at 3334 yuan [6]. - Logs: The 2603 main contract closed at 775, with a daily reduction of 1711 lots [6]. - Steel: rb2605 closed at 3064 yuan/ton, hc2605 closed at 3239 yuan/ton [6]. - Alumina: ao2605 closed at 2868 yuan/ton [6]. - Shanghai Aluminum: al2603 closed at 23540 yuan/ton [6]. 2. Core Views - **Coke and Coking Coal**: After the first round of coke price increase, the production losses of coking enterprises have eased. The supply of coke is marginally looser, and the demand from steel mills has improved, but pre - holiday stocking is nearing completion. For coking coal, the supply from mines and washing plants has decreased, and the demand is mainly for rigid procurement [4]. - **Zhengzhou Sugar**: The 2605 contract was boosted by the increase in spot prices. It is expected that the EU's beet planting area will decrease in the 2026/27 season, leading to a decline in sugar production [4]. - **Rubber**: The positive heavy - truck sales data in January supported the rubber price [4]. - **Palm oil**: The price was in a low - range consolidation [5]. - **Soybean Meal**: In the international market, the progress of Brazilian soybean harvest and high production expectations put pressure on prices. In the domestic market, the supply is abundant, and the demand is weakening [5]. - **Live Pigs**: The supply is high in February, and the demand is in a seasonal peak. In the medium - term, the supply will continue to exceed demand [5]. - **Shanghai Copper**: The price is affected by both positive factors such as mine disturbances and negative factors such as high inventory [5]. - **Cotton**: Textile enterprises mainly purchase raw materials for rigid demand before the holiday, and they are cautious about increasing inventory [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is increasing, and the demand growth is limited. The price is in a volatile trend [6]. - **Asphalt**: The supply is low, the demand is shrinking, and the price is in a volatile state [6]. - **Logs**: Attention should be paid to the spot price, import data, inventory changes, and market sentiment [6]. - **Steel**: The market is in a wait - and - see state due to weak post - holiday demand expectations and high iron ore inventory [6]. - **Alumina**: The spot trading atmosphere has improved, but the over - capacity situation remains [6]. - **Shanghai Aluminum**: The market sentiment is cooling, the supply is stable, and the demand is weakening [6]. 3. Impact Factors - **Coke**: The production profit of coking enterprises has improved, the supply has increased, and the pre - holiday stocking of steel mills is almost over [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The supply from mines and washing plants has decreased, and the demand is mainly for rigid procurement [4]. - **Zhengzhou Sugar**: The increase in spot prices and the expected decrease in EU sugar production [4]. - **Rubber**: The positive heavy - truck sales data [4]. - **Palm oil**: No specific impact factors mentioned other than the price trend [5]. - **Soybean Meal**: Brazilian soybean harvest progress, high domestic supply, and weakening demand [5]. - **Live Pigs**: High supply in February, seasonal peak demand, and high medium - term supply expectations [5]. - **Shanghai Copper**: Positive factors include mine disturbances and domestic policy support; negative factors include high inventory and weak international market [5]. - **Cotton**: Rigid demand procurement by textile enterprises before the holiday and concerns about post - holiday market fluctuations [5]. - **Iron Ore**: Increasing supply and limited demand growth [6]. - **Asphalt**: Low supply, shrinking demand [6]. - **Logs**: Spot price, import data, inventory changes, and market sentiment [6]. - **Steel**: Weak post - holiday demand expectations and high iron ore inventory [6]. - **Alumina**: Improved spot trading atmosphere but over - capacity [6]. - **Shanghai Aluminum**: Cooling market sentiment, stable supply, and weakening demand [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On February 6, the A - share market experienced a collective decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.25%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.33%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.73%. The trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2.16 trillion yuan, a slight decrease of 30.9 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The prices of various futures products showed different trends, influenced by factors such as supply - demand relationships, international market conditions, and macro - economic factors. 3. Summary by Variety **Stock Index Futures** - On February 6, the A - share market declined, and the CSI 300 index was weak and volatile, closing at 4643.60, a decrease of 26.82 compared to the previous day [1][2]. **Coke and Coking Coal** - On February 6, the coke weighted index was weak, closing at 1703.0, a decrease of 45.0; the coking coal weighted index was range - bound, closing at 1149.3 yuan, a decrease of 41.7 [2][3]. - Coke: Coking profit is average, daily production slightly decreased, inventory increased slightly. Trade procurement may improve after the first price increase. Overall, carbon supply is abundant, downstream iron - making is in the off - season, steel profit is average, and there is strong pressure on raw material prices [4]. - Coking coal: Mongolian coal customs clearance is 1350 vehicles. Coking coal mine production increased slightly, spot auction transactions decreased gradually, but the transaction price increased due to the rise in the futures price. Terminal inventory increased significantly, and the total coking coal inventory increased significantly while production - end inventory decreased slightly. Winter storage demand is coming to an end [4]. **Zhengzhou Sugar** - Affected by global oversupply, US sugar oscillated slightly lower on Friday. Zhengzhou sugar contract 2605 oscillated slightly higher in the night session on Friday. As of the week ending February 3, speculators increased their net short positions in ICE raw sugar futures and options by 40,734 contracts to 214,478 contracts [4]. **Rubber** - Shanghai rubber oscillated slightly lower on Friday. As of February 6, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's natural rubber inventory was 124,580 tons, a decrease of 600 tons compared to the previous period; the futures warehouse receipts were 112,070 tons, an increase of 1140 tons. The 20 - grade rubber inventory was 52,819 tons, a decrease of 4435 tons; the futures warehouse receipts were 51,004 tons, a decrease of 2621 tons. Last week, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.09%, a decrease of 2.23 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.45%, a decrease of 2.02 percentage points [4]. **Soybean Meal** - Internationally, on February 6, CBOT soybean futures rose slightly. After the China - US leaders' phone call, the market expects China to increase soybean purchases from the US, which may reduce the inventory pressure of US soybeans. As of the week ending January 29, US soybean export sales increased by 437,400 tons, in line with expectations. Brazilian soybeans are in the early stage of harvest, with a harvest rate of over 10%, and the expected production is above 181 million tons, which helps to reduce the expected production decline in Argentina due to local drought. - Domestically, on February 6, the main soybean meal contract 2605 closed at 2735 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.15%. The domestic soybean market has a loose supply. In the last week of January, the soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills reached a high of 2.3 million tons, and the soybean meal output increased. At the end of the month, the soybean meal inventory slightly rebounded to about 900,000 tons. It is recommended to focus on South American weather changes and soybean arrival volume [6]. **Live Pigs** - On February 6, the main live pig contract LH2605 closed at 11,625 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.51% compared to the previous day. In terms of supply, the supply of suitable - weight standard pigs in February is still high. As the Spring Festival approaches, the daily slaughter plan of farmers increases, and there is an oversupply of suitable - weight pigs. In terms of demand, consumer demand has entered the seasonal peak, and residents' stockpiling for the Spring Festival increases, providing short - term support for pig prices. In the medium term, the inventory of breeding sows and the replenishment of piglets are both at a high level, and the market supply exceeds demand. It is necessary to focus on the inventory of breeding sows, the slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises, and the realization of peak - season demand [6]. **Shanghai Copper** - On February 6, the main Shanghai copper contract (CU2603) opened lower, fluctuated widely, and closed down 2.34%, at 100,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2400 yuan from the previous settlement. The intraday range was 97,920 - 101,420 yuan/ton, with an amplitude of 3.5%, and the trading volume was 2.673 million lots. LME and SHFE inventories continued to rise, and domestic social inventory continued to accumulate, increasing short - term supply pressure. Globally, risk appetite declined, US technology stocks tumbled, and crude oil prices fell. Weak US employment data raised recession concerns, leading to the selling of risk assets. Before the Spring Festival, downstream demand was weak, processing enterprises gradually shut down, and spot transactions were light. However, there are China's copper concentrate strategic and commercial reserve policies [6]. **Cotton** - On Friday night, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 14,620 yuan/ton. Cotton inventory increased by 75 lots compared to the previous day. Textile enterprises had a high pre - holiday operating rate and made rigid purchases on a need - to - use basis [6]. **Iron Ore** - On February 6, the main iron ore contract 2605 oscillated and declined, with a decrease of 1.23%, closing at 760.5 yuan. The iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil continued to increase month - on - month, the domestic arrival volume increased slightly, and port inventory continued to accumulate. As the pre - holiday inventory replenishment of steel mills neared the end, the growth space of molten iron was limited, and the short - term iron ore price was in an oscillating trend [6]. **Asphalt** - On February 6, the main asphalt contract 2603 oscillated and closed up, with an increase of 0.92%, closing at 3386 yuan. Asphalt supply remained low, refinery inventory pressure was not high, terminal demand continued to decline, and pre - holiday spot transactions were light. The short - term asphalt price showed an oscillating trend [6]. **Log** - The main log contract 2603 opened at 802 on Friday, with a minimum of 780.5, a maximum of 802.5, and closed at 784, with a reduction of 1932 lots in positions. In the last week before the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the support from the spot market and the margin - increasing market before the festival. On February 6, the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day; the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 780 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged. Port coniferous log inventory has decreased for three consecutive weeks, reaching a 15 - and - a - half - month low. Future attention should be paid to spot prices, import data, inventory changes, and the support from macro - expectations and market sentiment [6][8]. **Steel** - The domestic construction steel market showed a "weak and stable" pattern, with narrowing price fluctuations. As the Spring Festival approached, construction projects across the country basically entered the final and shutdown stages, and terminal procurement demand decreased. Market transactions were mainly sporadic rigid demand and a small amount of winter - storage resource circulation among traders. The daily trading volume of national construction steel continued to decline, and the market was generally in a state of "having prices but no transactions", and the demand's driving effect on prices temporarily disappeared [8]. **Alumina** - On the raw material side, the impact of the rainy season in Guinea is gradually decreasing, and domestic bauxite supply is gradually sufficient. Coupled with the relatively high raw material inventory of alumina plants, the purchasing demand is weak, so the bauxite price has loosened, and the cost support for alumina has weakened. On the supply side, the alumina futures market performed well, driving the production enthusiasm of smelters, and the operating rate has increased. The current domestic supply is still relatively large, and the industrial inventory is slightly accumulating. On the demand side, the newly put - into - production capacity of electrolytic aluminum gradually increases the demand for alumina, but due to the industry's capacity ceiling, the increase is limited, and the raw material consumption generally increases steadily [8]. **Shanghai Aluminum** - Fundamentally, on the supply side, the price of raw material alumina is at a low level. Although the aluminum price has回调, the theoretical profit of electrolytic aluminum plants is still good. Coupled with the high start - stop cost of smelters, the production operation remains at a high and stable level, and the operating capacity has increased slightly, but limited by the industry ceiling, the increase is limited, and the electrolytic aluminum supply is generally stable. On the demand side, downstream processing enterprises made pre - holiday stockpiling at low prices as the aluminum price回调. As the stockpiling nears the end and affected by the long - holiday shutdown, downstream demand may gradually weaken. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai aluminum may be in a situation of stable supply and slightly improved demand, and the industrial inventory accumulates seasonally [8].