Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current volatility in the U.S. stock market and the strategies investors are considering to hedge against potential shocks, particularly in light of uncertainties surrounding Trump's policies [1]. Group 1: Market Volatility and Investor Strategies - Despite a calming of volatility in April, investors are preparing for sudden market shocks, similar to those experienced in the past [1]. - Derivatives strategists suggest that while periodic option selling from income-focused ETFs may suppress overall volatility, short-term shocks will continue to occur [1]. - Investors are weighing their preferences between Gamma and Vega strategies for hedging against market fluctuations [1][2]. Group 2: Gamma vs. Vega Strategies - Gamma represents a strategy focused on short-term options to capitalize on intraday volatility, while Vega pertains to long-term contracts benefiting from market turbulence [2]. - Data from Bloomberg indicates that short-term options were the biggest winners in April, but if the market retraces to previous lows, extreme volatility may not be repeated [2]. - Analysts expect a gradual repricing of the market driven by weak future guidance, indicating a low-volatility bear market [2]. Group 3: Alternative Hedging Tools - VKO (Volatility Knock Out) options are gaining popularity as a speculative method to short stocks or volatility, offering a cheaper alternative to standard options [3]. - Hedge funds have actively engaged in VKO during recent market declines to secure better entry points, emphasizing the importance of timing in establishing positions [3]. - Quantitative Investment Strategies (QIS) are also being considered for hedging, with a mixed approach potentially being more effective given the varied performance of these strategies during April's volatility [3]. Group 4: Cost Trends and Market Outlook - Trading costs have returned to levels seen at the end of March, providing a favorable environment for hedgers [5]. - Analysts predict that earnings downgrades and valuation compression will lead to a gradual decline in U.S. stocks, testing lows expected in 2025 [5]. - The article notes that while sudden news shocks previously defined market declines, the next downturn is anticipated to be a slow erosion rather than a sharp sell-off [5].

据了解，月均价期货是一种以一个月内标的资产平均价格为结算依据的期货合约。根据公告，本次征求 意见的三个化工品月均价期货合约的合约代码分别为"L合约月份F""V合约月份F"和"PP合约月份F"，交 易单位、交易时间、手续费、保证金、涨跌停板等方面与对应三个化工品实物交割期货合约保持一致。 此外，三个化工品月均价期货合约全部采用现金交割方式，即交易所以交割结算价为基础，划付持仓双 方的盈亏，了结到期未平仓合约。这将是大商所首次推出现金交割期货合约。同时，为确保合约平稳运 行，大商所对三个化工品月均价期货合约的结算价计算方法进行了针对性设计。例如，三个化工品月均 价期货合约在合约月份前一个月之前的当日结算价，取对应实物交割期货合约的当日结算价等。 据悉，聚乙烯、聚氯乙烯和聚丙烯期货先后于2007年、2009年、2014年在大商所上市，2024年的日均成 交量分别为34万手、106万手和34万手，日均持仓量分别为51万手、112万手和52万手。参与聚乙烯、聚 氯乙烯和聚丙烯期货交易的法人客户持仓占比分别为71%、59%和72%。总体来看，这三个化工品期货 市场运行成熟稳健，产业认可度和参与度较高，为推出月均价期货合约 ...