Core Viewpoint - The report from Huafu Securities indicates that China's innovative drug sector is experiencing a "quantitative change leading to qualitative change," with a positive outlook for the industry over the next 5-10 years driven by business development (BD) overseas, continuous data catalysts, and the ramp-up of new product sales [1] Group 1: Investment Recommendations - It is recommended to focus on Biopharma companies that have both BD expectations and commercial support for growth, as well as leading Pharma companies that are beginning to realize true innovation [1] - For Biotech and generic-to-innovative companies, attention should be given to those with potential blockbuster data or BD expectations that could act as catalysts [1] Group 2: Market Potential and Demand - The antidepressant market has significant potential, with over 350 million people affected globally, including more than 90 million in China, indicating a substantial disease burden [2] - The global antidepressant market is projected to reach approximately $17.11 billion by 2024, highlighting the vast market size [2] Group 3: Drug Development Challenges - Existing antidepressants have unmet needs in terms of efficacy and safety, with room for improvement in patient response rates [2] - Current drug development focuses on balancing "rapid onset" and "long-term safety," primarily through "monoamine deepening + multi-mechanism combination" strategies [2] Group 4: Industry Trends and Catalysts - The innovative drug sector is rebounding after a two-month adjustment, with a shift in focus from broad valuation recovery to the fundamental performance of companies [3] - Key industry catalysts include the start of medical insurance negotiations in November and upcoming industry conferences (ASH, ESMOASIA/IO) that may lead to data releases or clinical advancements [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The potential of the antidepressant market is enormous, with over 350 million people affected globally, including more than 90 million in China. The global antidepressant market is projected to reach approximately $17.11 billion by 2024, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.2% to $17.82 billion by 2025 [3][12][21] - There is a significant unmet need for effective antidepressant medications, as existing treatments have limitations in efficacy and safety. The development of new antidepressants should focus on balancing "rapid onset" and "long-term safety" [3][21] - The report highlights the advancements in drug development, with overseas companies leading the way, while domestic companies like Kanghong Pharmaceutical, Warner Pharmaceuticals, and Xinlitai are also making progress [3][22][24] Summary by Sections Antidepressant Market Overview - The global burden of depression is substantial, with 350 million cases worldwide and 90 million in China. The lifetime prevalence of depression in Chinese adults is 6.8% [12][21] - The antidepressant market is expected to grow steadily, reaching $20.25 billion by 2029 [12][21] Drug Development Trends - Traditional antidepressants, such as SSRIs, take 2-4 weeks to show effects, while newer GABA/glutamate-based drugs can provide rapid relief within hours. This has led to a focus on optimizing drug structures and formulations [3][24] - New generation antidepressants are being developed with a focus on "monoamine deepening + multi-mechanism combination" strategies [3][21] Key Companies and Products - The report suggests monitoring companies with promising pipelines, including Kanghong Pharmaceutical, Warner Pharmaceuticals, Xinlitai, and Jibeier [3][22][24] - Specific products highlighted include: - Esketamine (Spravato) for treatment-resistant depression, which has shown rapid effects [28] - Auvelity, a combination of dextromethorphan and bupropion, which has demonstrated quick onset of action [36] - Zuranolone, a GABA-A receptor modulator, approved for postpartum depression, showing rapid efficacy [40][43] - JJH201501 from Jibeier, which has shown significant efficacy and safety advantages over traditional treatments [47]