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国泰海通:增量资金流入+优质资产汇聚 调整后港股牛市仍有望延续
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-11-23 02:30
Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has entered a correction phase since October, primarily due to previous significant gains, tightening dollar liquidity, and a decline in expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. However, the ongoing AI wave and the influx of incremental capital suggest that the bull market in Hong Kong stocks is likely to continue [1][2][13]. Market Adjustment - Since the beginning of the year, the Hong Kong stock market has performed well, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech reaching new highs in early October. However, by mid-October, the market began to adjust, with the Hang Seng Index experiencing a maximum decline of 5.1% and Hang Seng Tech a maximum decline of 8.1% [2]. - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech recorded maximum gains of 47% and 61% respectively this year before entering the current adjustment phase [2]. Factors Influencing the Market - The tightening of dollar liquidity and the decline in expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have pressured the Hong Kong stock market. The U.S. government shutdown led to a temporary halt in government spending, causing dollar liquidity to tighten [3]. - Despite the end of the government shutdown, economic data remains unclear, leading to cautious Federal Reserve rate cut decisions. The market's expectation for a 25 basis point cut in December has dropped to 40% [3]. - The significant prior gains in the Hong Kong stock market, coupled with rising concerns over AI bubbles, have created selling pressure. The Hang Seng Tech Index has seen a maximum increase of 61% this year, while the Hang Seng Biotech Index has increased by 130% [3][8]. Historical Context of Market Corrections - In bull markets, adjustments are common, categorized into small corrections (average maximum decline of about 7%) and large corrections (average maximum decline of about 17%). Small corrections typically occur due to short-term market sentiment disturbances, while large corrections are often linked to liquidity tightening or external shocks [7][8]. - Historical data shows that small corrections in the Hang Seng Index average a maximum decline of 6.5% and last about 12 trading days, while large corrections average a maximum decline of 17% and last about 53 trading days [7][8]. Future Outlook - The tightening dollar liquidity is viewed as a short-term disturbance, and the AI wave is expected to continue. The release of previously accumulated liquidity following the end of the U.S. government shutdown may support the Hong Kong stock market [13]. - Incremental capital inflows and the gathering of quality assets suggest that the bull market in Hong Kong stocks may continue. The unique characteristics of Hong Kong assets, particularly in the context of the ongoing transformation in the domestic economy, enhance their attractiveness [13][14]. - Southbound capital is expected to continue flowing into the Hong Kong market, with over 1.3 trillion yuan already invested this year. This trend is likely to be supported by institutional investors, further propelling the market upward [14].
创新药的天花板又被捅破了
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-11-22 12:23
作者 | 武月 11月21日,礼来股价上涨1.59%,收于1059.70元/股,全球首家迈入"万亿美元俱乐部"的药企,也终于诞 生了。 一直以来,万亿美元市值是科技巨头的专属领地。2018年,苹果成为美股首家万亿美元的巨头,此后跟 进的8家企业中,6家均为科技公司,仅特斯拉与伯克希尔・哈撒韦两个 例外。 如今礼来的闯入,不仅再次改写了万亿市值俱乐部的行业构成,更彻底捅破了创新药行业的估值天花 板。 市场沸腾背后,是一场关于"价值逻辑"的重构。过去十年,创新药企的市值天花板被锚定在千亿美元, 国内在无数创新药企奋力攀爬,却始终难越雷池。 (来源:氨基观察) 转自:氨基观察 礼来的登顶证明,创新药的天花板,本质是想象力的天花板。当一款药物能撬动千亿美元市场、覆盖近 亿患者,传统估值模型便显得苍白。 并且,万亿美元并非终点。大多数达成这一里程碑的科技巨头,随后都实现了数万亿美元的市值。只不 过,专利周期的诅咒、技术迭代的焦虑、管线断层的风险……制药业的兴衰规律并未改变。 礼来用十年务实主义攀上巅峰,但这才是真正的试炼开端。 减肥药,推开万亿美元大门 礼来的万亿美元之路,始于一款GLP-1双靶点药物替尔泊肽。2023 ...
资管一线|专访瑞士百达陈东:长线外资仍有较大空间配置中国资产
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-11-22 06:02
新华财经上海11月21日电 从此前的观望到如今看好中国资产,2025年可以被视为外资重估中国资产的 元年,这背后既有美元信用对美国市场的影响,也受到中国科技股显著的估值优势以及产业基本面进步 的影响。 近日,瑞士百达财富管理亚洲首席策略师兼研究主管陈东在接受新华财经记者专访时表示,在美元信用 被侵蚀的同时,美国国债与美国股市也将面临不同性质的影响。目前真正大规模、长期配置型的外资才 刚刚开始恢复增持中国资产,未来外资增配中国仍有很大空间,AI应用、创新药、金融等方向将存在 中长期机会。 美元信用基石松动 虽然美元体系并未出现系统性危机迹象,但其长期信用问题以及全球货币格局的深刻变化均影响着美元 的走势。 陈东认为,美元目前正面临着"长期、缓慢但真实"的下行压力。从美国国内看,美元主要面临的两大关 键压力包括美国内部政策不确定性急剧上升以及美国财政赤字高企的问题推动。 从全球格局看,美国国内政策的不确定性,也让国际社会怀疑美国是否还愿意承担维护全球金融体系稳 定的责任,进一步影响了美元的信用。 "黄金价格的持续上涨,也反映了市场对美元信用问题的担忧。"陈东表示,黄金在近几年持续上行且在 2025年涨势更为迅猛, ...
华夏中证生物科技主题ETF基金投资价值分析:政策、估值、出海三重共振
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-11-21 10:56
- The China Securities Biotechnology Theme Index was launched on August 26, 2015, by China Securities Index Co., Ltd. The index selects listed company securities involved in gene diagnosis, biopharmaceuticals, blood products, and other human biotechnology as index samples to reflect the overall performance of biotechnology listed company securities[3][38] - The index sample space is the same as the China Securities All Index sample space, consisting of A-shares and depository receipts issued by red-chip companies that meet the following conditions: "(1) Non-ST, *ST securities; (2) Other securities: listed for more than one quarter, unless the average daily market value ranks in the top 30 since listing; (3) STAR Market and Beijing Stock Exchange securities: listed for more than one year and two years, respectively"[39] - The index sample selection method includes: (1) Ranking the securities in the sample space by average daily turnover over the past year and removing the bottom 20%; (2) Selecting biotechnology-related companies from the remaining securities as biotechnology theme candidates; (3) Ranking the candidates by average daily market value over the past year and selecting the top 50 securities as index samples[39] - The index's top ten constituent stocks are highly concentrated, focusing on the pharmaceutical industry. As of November 19, 2025, the top ten constituent stocks accounted for 55.26% of the total weight, forming a "CXO + innovative drugs + medical devices" golden triangle combination[40][41] - The index constituent stocks are evenly distributed across different market value ranges, with weights of 35.79% for stocks with a market value of over 100 billion, 44.24% for stocks with a market value between 200-1000 billion, and the rest distributed among other ranges[42][43] - The index constituent stocks are mainly concentrated in the biological medicine III, medical services, chemical preparations, and medical devices industries, with weights of 42.33%, 20.99%, 17.33%, and 11.97%, respectively[44][46] - The index constituent stocks have high exposure to concepts such as industry leaders, comprehensive private enterprises, main trading forces, dual circulation, fund heavy positions, and innovative drugs, with exposure rates of 70.56%, 64.78%, 64.58%, 62.60%, 62.48%, and 62.16%, respectively[47][48] - The index's current style is characterized by small market value, high liquidity, and high momentum. As of October 31, 2025, the index's market value style is significantly negatively exposed compared to the China Securities 800 Index, with higher liquidity and trading activity[48][51][52] - The index's PE valuation is near the historical average, and the PB valuation is near the historical -1 standard deviation, indicating a high safety margin and potential for upward valuation[53][54] - The index's profitability is outstanding, with expected revenue growth rates of 6.54%, 6.00%, and 13.76% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, and expected net profit growth rates of 52.09%, 18.58%, and 24.11% for the same years[55][56][57][58]
“上海市侨界杰出人物”陈力:引领中华医药创新崛起
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang· 2025-11-21 09:36
这份决心最终在2004年落地生根。彼时的上海,生物医药产业尚在起步阶段,市面上难觅本土创新药的 身影,在陈力的牵头下,罗氏集团在上海设立药物研究和早期开发中心——罗氏研发(中国)有限公司。 这是罗氏在新兴市场设立的第一个研发中心,也是跨国药企在上海独资建立的第一个药物研发中心。 中新网上海11月21日电(范宇斌)从美国罗氏研发中心的技术骨干,到跨国药企在华研发中心的"拓荒 者",再到中国创新药的"领军者",华领医药技术(上海)有限公司创始人、董事长、首席执行官陈力三十 余年架起中外医药交流的桥梁,用智慧破解中国人的健康难题,日前荣获"上海市侨界杰出人物"称号。 陈力接受中新网专访时说,他1992年到美国罗氏研发中心工作,负责研发高通量技术,"其实就是现在 大家说的用人工智能技术做药物设计、筛选,中国科学家在海外从不缺拼劲,很多关键实验数据都出自 我们之手"。 力接受中新网专访。 范宇斌 摄 这段经历,让陈力敏锐地意识到散落全球的侨界科技人才,是连接中国与世界的宝贵纽带。他在担任美 中医药开发协会(SAPA)主席期间,促成与上海市科委签约合作,定期组织侨界专家回国参加医药研讨 会。"2000年,我回到上海参加论 ...
汇宇制药:HYP-6589片联合用药获得药物临床试验申请受理通知书
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-21 09:07
Core Insights - HYP-6589, a selective SOS1 small molecule inhibitor developed by the company's subsidiary, has received acceptance for clinical trial application in combination with Osimertinib for treating advanced non-small cell lung cancer with target-driven gene positivity [1][2] - The drug is classified as a Class 1 innovative chemical drug and is currently undergoing clinical research for monotherapy in advanced solid tumors in China [1] - There are no similar products approved for market in both domestic and international markets as of the announcement date [1] Group 1 - HYP-6589 has received the acceptance notice from the National Medical Products Administration for clinical trials [1] - The drug is designed to enhance the efficacy of Osimertinib and potentially overcome resistance mechanisms associated with it [2] - Preclinical studies indicate that the combination of SOS1 inhibitors and Osimertinib can achieve deeper and more sustained inhibition of MAPK and PI3K signaling pathways [2] Group 2 - SOS1 is a crucial regulator in the RTK-RAS signaling pathway, which is activated by receptor tyrosine kinases [2] - The activation of SOS1 leads to the formation of RAS-GTP, which is essential for downstream signaling pathways [2] - Inhibition of SOS1 has shown potential to address unmet clinical needs in the context of Osimertinib resistance [2]
连板股追踪丨A股今日共33只个股涨停 中水渔业6连板
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-11-21 07:32
Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced significant activity with 33 stocks hitting the daily limit up, indicating strong investor interest and potential bullish trends in specific sectors [1] Group 1: Aquaculture Sector - Zhongshui Fishery achieved a remarkable six consecutive limit-up days, highlighting its strong performance in the aquaculture sector [1] Group 2: Other Notable Stocks - Rongji Software recorded five consecutive limit-up days, associated with the data element concept [1] - ST Mubang also saw five consecutive limit-up days, linked to the photovoltaic silicon wafer sector [1] - Deep China A and Guofeng New Materials both achieved three consecutive limit-up days, with Deep China A in the lithium battery sector and Guofeng New Materials in the photolithography glue sector [1] - Other companies such as ST Suwu, Meng Tian Home, and Caixin Development also showed notable performances with three consecutive limit-up days in their respective sectors [1]
海普瑞跌4.14%,成交额5327.83万元,今日主力净流入-343.24万
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-11-21 07:24
2、赛湾生物具备向客户提供mRNA疫苗开发及生产CDMO服务的能力。赛湾生物凭借优秀的工艺开 发、准时交付以及成功的运营能力,继续推进mRNA疫苗供应链的工作,支持全球多个已商业化的 mRNA疫苗的生产。 3、深圳市海普瑞药业集团股份有限公司的主营业务是肝素产业链,生物大分子CDMO和创新药物的投 资,开发及商业化。 来源:新浪证券-红岸工作室 11月21日,海普瑞跌4.14%,成交额5327.83万元,换手率0.36%,总市值169.77亿元。 异动分析 创新药+生物疫苗+CRO概念+人民币贬值受益 1、2024年年报,海普瑞于 1998 年成立于深圳,是拥有 A+H 双融资平台的领先跨国制药企业,主要业 务覆盖肝素产业链、生物大分子 CDMO 和创新药物的投资、开发及商业化,致力于为全球患者带去高 质量的安全有效药物和服务,护佑健康。 技术面:筹码平均交易成本为11.59元 该股筹码平均交易成本为11.59元,近期筹码减仓,但减仓程度减缓;目前股价靠近支撑位11.54,注意 支撑位处反弹,若跌破支撑位则可能会开启一波下跌行情。 公司简介 资料显示,深圳市海普瑞药业集团股份有限公司位于广东省深圳市南山区松坪 ...
港股速报|科网股普跌 恒指低开1.45% 科指跌2.21%
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-11-21 03:06
11月21日,港股市场早盘大幅低开。 打开百度APP畅享高清图片 恒生科技指数报5451.51点,下跌123.08点,跌幅2.21%。 昨晚,纳斯达克指数在一度涨超2%的大好局面下突然变盘,最终收盘大跌超2%。美股的大跌,对今日 中国港股市场产生明显不利影响。 截至发稿,恒生指数报25460.42点,下跌375.15点,跌幅1.45%。 六福集团(HK00590)公告,预计截至9月30日止六个月收入较去年同期升约20%至30%;净利润预计 同比涨约40%至50%。主要由于定价首饰产品的销售大幅增长。 其他方面,盘面上,科网股普跌,百度跌超6%,联想、哔哩哔哩跌超4%,阿里巴巴跌超3%,腾讯、京 东跌超2%;芯片股低开,中芯国际跌超3%;汽车股继续下跌,蔚来跌超5%;创新药概念普跌,药明生 物跌超3%。 后市展望: 华夏基金认为,近期恒生科技指数从高位回落,跌幅较大。但当前港股科技板块正处在资金面、政策 面、基本面三重利好交汇的关键时点。尽管市场波动难免,但AI产业方向未变,流动性环境改善,估 值仍处低位,或许是定投布局的较好时机。华夏基金还表示,随着AI产业链持续发展,互联网龙头、 AI硬件、高端制造等新经济 ...
港股创新药概念集体下挫
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-11-21 03:00
Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market saw a collective decline in the innovative drug sector, with notable drops in several companies [1] - Three-Sixty Pharmaceutical experienced a decline of over 7% [1] - Other companies such as King’s Ray Biotechnology, CSPC Pharmaceutical Group, and Galenica also reported declines [1]