杨涛（中国社科院国家金融与发展实验室副主任） 近期，随着美国参议院通过《天才法案》（《2025年美国稳定币创新指导与建立法案》）、中国香港立 法会通过《稳定币条例草案》，以及稳定币巨头Circle正式于纽约交易所上市，稳定币再次引起国内外 各界的热议。对于稳定币的冲击与影响，无论从国际货币体系博弈视角，还是传统金融与Web3金融兼 容的视角来探讨，都需要先厘清其内在的理论与实践逻辑。 法币抵押型稳定币：融入主权信用体系 回顾历史，货币经历了从贝壳、贵金属到现代信用货币的演进过程，在其价值尺度、流通手段、支付与 贮藏等功能中，作为支付的承诺与载体是核心功能所在。随着电子化、数字化时代来临，新兴支付方式 逐渐走上"基于账户"和"基于价值（Token）"两条路径。前者主要依托传统银行体系，以身份验证作为 核心；后者则可能脱离银行账户体系，从早期的非银行电子钱包，逐渐衍生出"基于Token"的全新模 式，其重心则不再是身份验证，而是价值证明与防伪。 在"基于Token"的演进中，由于完全去中心化的加密货币（如比特币）的价值呈现非稳定性，其资产属 性逐渐超过货币属性，难以承载锚定支付的职能，因此出现了各类稳定币的探索， ...

还记得当年荷兰人疯抢郁金香的场景吗？现在WkeyDAO这玩意儿就跟那会儿一个德行。震哥观察这项目半年多了，从90刀跌到30刀就用了五个月，眼瞅着 就要奔着归零去了。可邪门的是，居然还有60万韭菜往里冲，真是太阳底下没新鲜事。 一、WkeyDAO的三阶段套路 这帮搞WkeyDAO的玩得可太花了，咱们来捋捋他们的骚操作： 第一阶段（2024年底）：装逼期 整一堆"算法稳定币""DePIN物联网"这种高大上名词，再搞个699美金的区块链手机当幌子。震哥当时一看就笑了，这不就是给旧酒换新瓶嘛，专骗那些不 懂装懂的小白。 第二阶段（2025年初）：拉人头期 搞了个12级传销体系，拉一个人头抽15%。最骚的是他们用机器人刷数据，硬是把日交易量造假到800多万。这操作就跟菜市场给烂苹果贴有机标签一个套 路，专门忽悠那些想暴富的冤大头。 吹什么"每12小时复利0.2%-0.83%"，算下来年化608%，意味着项目规模每4个半月就得翻一倍。全球加密货币总市值才2.3万亿，它这是要上天？地球经济都 撑不住这种增长。 2. 硬件就是幌子，代币才是真货 卖699美元的"Web3手机"，成本不到200，所谓的"加速挖矿"功能纯属扯淡。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution of safe-haven assets in the context of a complex global economic environment, highlighting the shift from traditional assets like gold to new alternatives such as energy metals and digital currencies [2][3]. Group 1: Evolution of Safe-Haven Assets - Historical evolution of safe-haven tools has undergone three revolutions, indicating a shift from physical assets to digital consensus [2]. - The current market faces a contradiction where the collapse of the old system outpaces the establishment of a new order, forcing capital to seek temporary refuge [2]. Group 2: New Types of Safe-Haven Assets - Energy metals are emerging as hard currencies in the context of green inflation, with global clean energy investment surpassing fossil fuels at $1.8 trillion [3]. - The financial attributes of these metals are strengthening, as evidenced by the correlation of copper inventory to price dropping from 0.68 to 0.21, indicating a shift towards strategic reserve asset logic [3]. - Bitcoin's institutional holding has reached 36%, but its high annual volatility of 48% still deters conservative investors, leading to the emergence of new crypto assets that aim to differentiate between risk and safe-haven assets [3]. Group 3: Alternative Sovereign Assets - The decline of traditional safe-haven currencies like the Japanese yen and Swiss franc is noted, with small country currencies rising due to resource endowment and digital infrastructure [4]. - The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has surpassed $4 trillion, making it comparable to the fourth-largest stock market globally [4]. - The demand for lithium is projected to grow 42 times by 2030, with 70% of reserves concentrated in "lithium triangle" countries [4]. Group 4: Capital Flows and Sovereign Wealth Funds - Tracking global sovereign wealth funds reveals a trend of seeking new frameworks for risk diversification as traditional asset correlations rise above 0.8 [4]. - The Norwegian government pension fund has increased its copper futures allocation from 0.3% to 2.1% [5]. - Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund is establishing a $30 billion space technology fund, indicating a strategic shift towards innovative asset classes [5]. Group 5: Survival Strategies in the New Safe-Haven Era - Investors are advised to build a three-dimensional defense system, focusing on risk, time, and space dimensions [5]. - Short-term strategies include increasing exposure to energy metal ETFs and digital stablecoins, while long-term strategies involve investing in disruptive technologies like nuclear fusion and quantum computing [5]. - Geographic safety zones should maintain a minimum of 15% in physical assets, with digital asset wallets diversified across at least three jurisdictions [5].