Core Viewpoint - The report from China Merchants Securities maintains a "strong buy" rating for Pop Mart (09992), citing factors such as the overseas organizational structure promoting healthy growth and the strong potential of IP products like LABUBU and Starry People [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - The adjusted net profit forecasts for Pop Mart for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are raised to 10.96 billion, 14.92 billion, and 18.31 billion yuan respectively, up from previous estimates of 10.37 billion, 14.21 billion, and 17.36 billion yuan [1] - The corresponding adjusted PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 32.3x, 23.8x, and 19.4x [1] Group 2: Business Performance Expectations - For Q3 2025, the company is expected to achieve a year-on-year revenue growth of 154.2%, with an absolute value of 9.17 billion yuan, and a quarter-on-quarter growth of approximately 8.9% [2] - The adjusted net profit for Q3 2025 is anticipated to grow by 198.6% year-on-year, amounting to 3.03 billion yuan [2] - The assumptions for Q3 2025 include an adjusted profit margin of 33% and a profit contribution ratio of 27.5% to the annual adjusted profit [2]

2022-2024年公司分别于10月25日/24日/22日发布三季度最近业务情况信息，预计公司将于近期发布2025 年三季度业务情况。考虑到新品上新势能强劲及各渠道持续增长，假设25Q3经调整净利润占全年经调 整利润比为27.5%(假设24Q3利润率与24Q4持平，则对应24Q3占利润比为29.8%，考虑24H1上新及补货 节奏影响，假设占比同比下降;假设25Q2利润率与25Q1持平，则对应占比为25.9%)，假设经调整利润率 为33%，该行预计25Q3公司收入端同比增长为154.2%，环比增长约8.9%，绝对值为91.7亿元;经调整净 利润同比增长198.6%，绝对值为30.3亿元(三季度仅披露经营收入增速区间，绝对值及利润同比预测仅 供参考)。 招商证券发布研报称，维持泡泡玛特(09992)"强烈推荐"投资评级。考虑到1)海外组织架构促进海外健康 持续增长;2)"精灵天团"LABUBU/星星人等IP产品势能良好，上调2025-2027年盈利预测，经调整净利润 分别为109.6/149.2/183.1亿元(前值分别为103.7/142.1/173.6亿元)，对应2025-2027年经调整PE分别为 32.3 ...