Group 1: Overall Information - Report Title: "Zinc: Export Window Opens, Ratio May Return" [1] - Researcher: Chen Hansong [1] - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F03129697 [1] - Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0020351 [1] Group 2: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Industrial Supply and Demand - **Mine End**: This week, the loss of imported zinc ore continued to widen compared to last week. Smelters mainly purchased domestic zinc ore, and the import trading volume remained light. The processing fee for imported zinc ore remained high, but with the decline of domestic processing fees, some offers for imported zinc ore have been reduced. If the price ratio is repaired later, it may suppress the processing fee of imported zinc ore. The average weekly TC of SMM Zn50 domestic zinc ore decreased by 100 yuan/metal ton to 3400 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index increased by 0.25 US dollars/dry ton to 118.75 US dollars/dry ton. The total inventory of major domestic ports increased by 4.13 tons to 38.06 tons this week [4]. - **Smelting End**: Recently, the zinc price has declined and the domestic TC has decreased, narrowing the smelting profit. However, the by - product revenue is still considerable, and the smelter's profit remains above 1000 yuan/ton, with high enthusiasm for production. In October, although some smelters in China carried out maintenance, the overall refined zinc production in China may increase significantly due to the resumption of production of previously maintained smelters. Recently, the price ratio has worsened, the loss of refined zinc imports has widened, and the spot export window has opened, but there is still a loss for warehouse delivery. If the export warehouse - delivery window opens, attention should be paid to the volume and frequency of exports [4]. - **Consumption**: The traditional peak season for zinc consumption is coming to an end, and domestic zinc consumption is expected to gradually weaken. However, the boosting effect of domestic policies on consumption still needs to be monitored [4]. - **Inventory Data**: As of October 16, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven major regions monitored by SMM was 16.27 tons, a decrease of 0.04 tons from October 12 and an increase of 1.25 tons from October 9. The LME zinc inventory on October 16 was 3.8 tons, a decrease of 550 tons from October 10 [4]. - **Market Outlook**: In October, domestic smelters resumed and increased production, with a significant increase in supply. However, the consumption side did not improve significantly, and the domestic social inventory continued to accumulate, putting pressure on the Shanghai zinc price. Overseas, due to low inventory, the Back structure continued, and affected by the capital side, the LME zinc price was relatively strong. The pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic is expected to continue. Attention should be paid to the opening time of the export window. If the price ratio continues to worsen, an arbitrage strategy of selling LME zinc and buying Shanghai zinc can be pre - arranged [4]. Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Part of the profitable short positions can be liquidated, and short positions can be re - established at high prices [4]. - **Arbitrage**: According to the export situation, a strategy of buying SHFE zinc and selling LME zinc can be pre - arranged [4]. Group 3: Market Data - The report mentions information such as spot premiums, basis of mainstream consumption bases, absolute prices, monthly spreads, trading volume and open interest of Shanghai zinc, social inventory, bonded area inventory, LME inventory, LME cancelled warrant ratio, warrants, and LME inventory by region, but no specific data analysis is provided in the given text [6][12][15][16] Group 4: Fundamental Data Zinc Ore Supply - **Global and Domestic Production**: From January to July 2025, the global zinc concentrate production was 7.1918 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.4649 million tons or 6.91%. Among them, overseas production was 4.8518 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.3559 million tons or 7.92%, and China's production was 2.231 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.109 million tons or 4.89%. In July, the global zinc concentrate production was 1.0762 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.1003 million tons or 10.28%. In September, the domestic zinc concentrate production was 0.3145 million metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.79% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.99%. In October, the expected production is 0.3009 million metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.32% [29]. - **Zinc Ore Imports**: From January to August, the cumulative import volume of zinc concentrate was 3.5027 million tons (physical tons), a cumulative year - on - year increase of 43.06%. In October, the price ratio worsened, and the loss of imported zinc concentrate continued to widen. Although some previously locked - price zinc concentrates and long - term contract goods arrived at ports, the import volume may decrease due to losses [38]. - **Total Domestic Ore Supply**: Overall, the supply of domestic ore has decreased, and the imported zinc concentrate is expected to decrease. In October, the domestic zinc concentrate supply may decrease. Attention should be paid to the change of imported TC. Considering that domestic smelters are about to start winter storage, the demand for ore increases significantly. If the imported TC is further adjusted upwards, the inflow of imported ore may increase [41]. - **Zinc Ore Processing Fees**: In October, the monthly processing fee for domestic Zn50 zinc concentrate was 3650 yuan/ton. On October 17, the weekly processing fee for domestic Zn50 zinc concentrate decreased by 100 yuan to 3400 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index increased by 0.25 US dollars/dry ton to 118.75 US dollars/dry ton [45]. Global and Domestic Refined Zinc Supply - **Global Refined Zinc**: From January to July 2025, the global refined zinc production was 7.9109 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.0923 million tons or 1.15%; the global refined zinc consumption was 7.7945 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.0206 million tons or 0.26%. The global refined zinc had a cumulative surplus of 0.1164 million tons. In July, the global refined zinc production was 1.1993 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%, and the demand was 1.1691 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.87%, with a surplus of 0.0302 million tons [50]. - **Domestic Refined Zinc Supply**: In September, the operating rate of domestic refined zinc enterprises was 92.32%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.02%. The production of SMM China's refined zinc in September was 0.6001 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.0261 million tons or 4.17%, and a year - on - year increase of 20.19%. It is expected that the production in October will be 0.6227 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.0226 million tons or 3.77%, and a year - on - year increase of 22.54%. From January to August, the cumulative import volume of refined zinc was 0.2355 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 11.81%. In September and October, the import window remained closed, and if the export window opens later, domestic refined zinc may be exported. In October, the domestic refined zinc supply may increase slightly month - on - month [53][63] Downstream Demand - The report also mentions data related to the primary processing of zinc, including the operating rate and inventory of downstream enterprises, as well as data on real estate construction, land transaction premium rates, infrastructure investment, automobile production, and white - goods production, but no specific data analysis is provided in the given text [66][72][83][87][90]