锌产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属组 季先飞 （首席分析师/联席行政负责人） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 日期：2025年10月12日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 锌：供强需弱延续，关注短期宏观指引 强弱分析：中性偏弱 本周锌锭出现累库 镀锌开工小幅回落 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 第 2 页 资料来源：SMM、钢联、同花顺、Bloomberg、国泰君安期货研究所 ◆ 国内供应端压力不减。当下进口锌精矿亏损不断扩大，对国产矿采购需求进一步提升， 国产矿TC集中下调；节前内蒙古、河南、广西地区企业恢复生产，本周甘肃、湖南等 地区冶炼厂如期检修，从最新排产数据来看，预计10月国内锌锭供应或继续增加，供 应端压力不减。 ◆ 消费端小幅改善，但相对有限。镀锌方面，镀锌厂出口订单环比回暖，但可能不具备 持续性；压铸锌 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The zinc market is currently facing a situation where domestic inventory accumulation has slowed down, and zinc prices are oscillating downward. After the macro - impact fades, zinc prices may have further room to fall [1][7]. Summary according to the Table of Contents 1. This Week's Market Review - **Futures Prices**: The Shanghai zinc futures price first oscillated strongly and then gradually weakened, with a significant decline on Friday night. The market was influenced by the Fed's actions and macro - data, and the zinc's weak fundamentals could not support high prices. The Shanghai - London ratio approached 7.5. The outlook is for prices to oscillate and decline [6][7]. - **Spot Prices**: In Tianjin, zinc prices fell to an acceptable level for downstream buyers, who increased point - price pick - ups for pre - National Day stocking. Inventory decreased, and some smelters were reluctant to sell, leading to a slight increase in the trader's delivery premium. In Shanghai, downstream buyers actively purchased at low prices for stocking, but as some completed stocking and the market rebounded, spot trading weakened [8]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: The latest LME zinc inventory was 42,775 tons on September 26 and continued to decline this week. The overseas zinc ingot out - storage was due to a bank's inventory from the previous year [10]. - **Export Profit and Loss**: SMM's new export profit - loss calculations showed a loss of 611 yuan/ton for Southeast Asian warehousing and a profit of 29.5 yuan/ton for Southeast Asian spot (turning from loss to profit) on September 25. There may be a chance of profit in warehousing next week, and zinc products may be exported [14]. 2. Raw Material End - **Processing Fees**: As of September 26, the SMM Zn50 weekly TC average price decreased by 200 yuan/metal ton to 3,650 yuan/metal ton. Domestic zinc mine production is expected to decline in the fourth quarter, and smelters' winter - stocking demand and miners' profit considerations may lead to a downward adjustment of zinc ore processing fees in October [17][18]. - **Zinc Concentrate Supply**: In August 2025, 467,300 tons (physical tons) of zinc concentrate were imported, a 6.8% decrease from July and a 30.06% increase year - on - year. The cumulative import volume from January to August was 3.5027 million tons (physical tons), a 43.06% increase year - on - year [21]. - **Zinc Concentrate Inventory**: The total inventory of SMM zinc concentrate at major Chinese ports was 339,300 tons, a decrease of 84,200 tons from last week, with a significant decline at Fangchenggang Port [26]. 3. Smelting End - **Refined Zinc Import**: In August 2025, China imported 25,656.83 tons of refined zinc, a 43.30% increase from July and a 3.59% decrease year - on - year. Kazakhstan was the largest source of imports, with 20,824.76 tons imported, a 69.97% increase from July and a 67.01% increase year - on - year. Iran was the second - largest source, with a 9.40% year - on - year increase [30]. - **Smelting Start - up Rate**: The start - up rate remained high, and the improvement in the processing economy of domestic ore led to an increase in the overall start - up rate [31][34]. 4. Demand End - **Refined Zinc Export**: No specific data on refined zinc export was provided other than the relevant charts [38][39]. - **Downstream Production and Start - up Rate**: Terminal orders remained weak, and typhoons affected the Guangdong market. The zinc alloy industry was affected by weak demand and low - price alloy competition. In the zinc oxide market, feed - grade zinc oxide was in the peak season, but rubber - grade and ceramic - grade zinc oxide had general demand [40][44]. - **Downstream Prices and Basic Situation**: The overall sales of galvanized pipes were weak, and inventory increased. Galvanized structural parts showed marginal improvement in consumption compared to August. The overall start - up rate of downstream industries was expected to decline slightly next week [44][45]. 5. Zinc Inventory - **Downstream Inventory**: No specific analysis of downstream inventory other than the relevant charts [49]. - **Domestic Social Inventory**: As of September 18, the total inventory of SMM's seven - location zinc ingots was 158,500 tons, a decrease of 2,100 tons from September 15. The Shanghai bonded - area inventory was 8,000 tons on September 25, unchanged from the previous period [52].

锌产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属组 季先飞 （首席分析师/联席行政负责人） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 日期：2025年9月28日 | 数据 | | --- | Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 锌：供应端压力不减，去库拐点有待进一步确认 强弱分析：中性偏弱 本周锌锭出现去库 镀锌开工小幅回落 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 第 2 页 资料来源：SMM、钢联、同花顺、Bloomberg、国泰君安期货研究所 ◆ 国内供应端压力不减。当下进口锌精矿亏损不断扩大，对国产矿采购需求进一步提升， 国产矿TC承压；本周河南、广西地区企业恢复生产，10月江西、河南两家冶炼厂月中 存检修计划，但从最新排产数据来看，预计10月国内锌锭供应或继续增加，供应端压 力不减。 ◆ 消费端小幅改善，但相对有限。临近国庆假期，下游存在节前备库 ...

品种观点 报告日期：2025 年 9 月 26 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：公募基金规模首破 36 万亿 中基协发布数据显示，我国公募基金规模首次突破 36 万亿元大关，截至 8 月底 达到 36.25 万亿元，单月猛增 1.18 万亿元。股债跷跷板效应下，债券基金规模 小幅下降 285 亿元。商务部发布公告，决定将扁平地球管理公司等 3 家美国实体 列入出口管制管控名单，决定对墨西哥相关涉华限制措施启动贸易投资壁垒调查。 美国第二季度 GDP 增速上修至 3.8%，创近两年新高，PCE 物价指数 2.6%，显示 出通胀压力比之前评估的更为顽固。美国上周首申人数大幅回落至 21.8 万人， 为 7 月以来最低。市场对 10 月降息预期有所降温。美股三大指数三连跌，2 年 期美债收益率回升，黄金、原油价格上涨。 重点品种：股指、原油、玻璃 股指：美国三大指数下跌，上一交易日股指继续反弹，传媒板块领涨，纺织服饰 板块领跌，市场成交额 2.39 万亿元。资金方面，9 月 24 日融资余额增加 140.82 亿元至 24141.23 亿元。整体上而言 9 月走势相对 7 月和 8 月更为波折，我们认 为是进入了 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The copper market shows a strengthening upward trend due to factors such as reduced global copper mine supply, decreased domestic inventories, and industry opposition to "involution" competition [3][4][7]. - The alumina market has limited downward space as prices are below the theoretical full - cost, but the fundamental oversupply situation restricts price rebound [11][12][15]. - The electrolytic aluminum market is expected to maintain an oscillatory upward trend, with consumption showing resilience as indicated by the reduction in social inventories [18][21]. - The casting aluminum alloy market has alloy ingot spot prices remaining stable and slightly strong, with market expectations being positive [23][25]. - The zinc market may see a small surplus in September, and the overseas market's inventory reduction may support zinc prices, but attention should be paid to the overseas delivery situation [30][31]. - The lead market is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation as multiple factors are intertwined [36][37]. - The nickel market is affected by positive news from Indonesia and the Philippines, and prices are oscillating strongly [40][42]. - The stainless steel market is expected to maintain an oscillatory trend, with cost support and slow inventory reduction [47][50]. - The tin market has limited supply improvement, weak demand, and prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation [54][56]. - The industrial silicon market's price is affected by polysilicon production and market sentiment, and it is recommended to participate with long positions [61][63][64]. - The polysilicon market is expected to see a small increase in inventory, and it is recommended to trade with low - long band operations [66][67][69]. - The lithium carbonate market is expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern, with supply and demand factors both having an impact [71][72][74]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Copper - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai copper 2511 contract closed at 82,710 yuan/ton, up 3.4%, and the Shanghai copper index increased its positions by 89,053 lots to 552,800 lots [2]. - Spot: The Shanghai copper spot reported a premium of 30 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the Guangdong market reported a premium of 60 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the North China market reported a discount of 90 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [2]. - **Important Information** - As of September 25, the national mainstream copper inventory decreased by 0.44 million tons to 1.401 million tons compared to Monday, and it was the first weekly decline after four consecutive weeks of increase [3]. - Goldman Sachs lowered its global copper mine supply forecasts for 2025 and 2026, with a total reduction of 525,000 tons in copper mine supply [4]. - **Logic Analysis** - The Grasberg incident has changed the long - term supply - demand structure, intensifying the tightness of copper mines. The industry's opposition to "involution" competition has increased market bullish sentiment [7]. - Consumption shows a weak peak season, and downstream acceptance of high prices is insufficient [7]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: The price is rising rapidly, and the bullish trend is strengthening [8]. - Arbitrage: Continue to hold cross - market positive arbitrage [9]. - Options: Wait and see [10] 3.2 Alumina - **Market Review** - Futures: The alumina 2601 contract increased by 48 yuan to 2,942 yuan/ton [11]. - Spot: The alumina spot prices in various regions showed a downward trend [11]. - **Related Information** - As of September 25, the national alumina inventory was 3.797 million tons, an increase of 78,000 tons from last week [12]. - The strike at the Guinean bauxite mine and the reduction in the price of mainstream mines in Guinea and Australia have affected the market [12][14]. - **Logic Analysis** - The price is below the theoretical full - cost, with limited downward space, but the fundamental oversupply situation restricts price rebound [15]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: The price rebounds slightly, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 3,000 yuan [16]. - Arbitrage: Reverse calendar spread arbitrage [17]. - Options: Wait and see [17] 3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai aluminum 2511 contract increased by 80 yuan to 20,765 yuan/ton [18]. - Spot: The aluminum ingot spot prices in East China, South China, and Central China all increased [18]. - **Related Information** - The US imposed a 15% tariff on EU - imported automobiles and auto products [18]. - On September 25, the domestic aluminum ingot spot inventory decreased by 23,000 tons [18]. - The 500,000 - ton first - phase electrolytic aluminum project of Indonesia's Adaro - Liqin is expected to be put into production in stages at the end of 2025 [18]. - **Trading Logic** - After the Fed's interest rate cut, the market is cautious about further cuts. The rise in copper prices has driven the rebound of LME aluminum, and the reduction in social inventories shows consumption resilience [21]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Aluminum prices rebound with the sector [27]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [27]. - Options: Wait and see [27] 3.4 Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review** - Futures: The casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract increased by 45 yuan to 20,365 yuan/ton [23]. - Spot: The ADC12 aluminum alloy ingot spot prices in some regions increased, while others remained flat [23]. - **Related Information** - The "Notice on Implementing Policies for Regulating Investment Promotion Behaviors" has an impact on the recycled aluminum industry [23]. - On September 24, the social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi increased [23]. - **Trading Logic** - Some enterprises are stocking up for the National Day holiday, and the demand for die - casting plants is increasing, with alloy ingot prices remaining stable and slightly strong [25]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: The alloy futures price rebounds with aluminum prices [28]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [28]. - Options: Wait and see [28] 3.5 Zinc - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai zinc 2511 increased by 0.59% to 22,045 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai zinc index's positions decreased by 14,900 lots to 238,500 lots [29]. - Spot: The spot trading in the Shanghai market was average, with downstream enterprises having low enthusiasm for purchasing [29]. - **Related Information** - As of September 25, the domestic seven - region zinc ingot inventory decreased by 0.80 million tons compared to September 18 [30]. - A smelter in South China resumed production on September 25, with a total impact of 4,000 tons during the maintenance period [30]. - The winning bid price of a zinc mine in North China decreased by 200 yuan/metal ton [30]. - **Logic Analysis** - The refined zinc supply in September may have a small reduction, but the monthly output is still at a relatively high level. The downstream's low - price purchasing has led to a small reduction in social inventories [31]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Affected by the external market, the Shanghai zinc price may oscillate strongly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the LME inventory change [31]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [33]. - Options: Wait and see [33] 3.6 Lead - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai lead 2511 increased by 0.09% to 17,090 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai lead index's positions decreased by 1,713 lots to 93,600 lots [32]. - Spot: The SMM1 lead average price remained unchanged, and the trading was average [35]. - **Related Information** - As of September 25, the SMM lead ingot five - region social inventory decreased by 2.13 million tons compared to September 18 [36]. - Some large - scale recycled lead smelters in Anhui and Inner Mongolia have no plans to resume production in the short term [36]. - **Logic Analysis** - The increase in lead prices has repaired the losses of recycled lead smelters, and some enterprises plan to resume production. The downstream may stock up before the National Day [37]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: The lead price may maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term [38]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [38]. - Options: Wait and see [38] 3.7 Nickel - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai nickel main contract NI2511 increased by 1,310 to 122,990 yuan/ton, and the index's positions increased by 13,909 lots [40]. - Spot: The premiums of Jinchuan nickel and Russian nickel changed [40]. - **Related Information** - The Chicago Fed President warned against continuous interest rate cuts [41]. - The Indonesian government sanctioned 25 nickel mining companies [41]. - Zhongwei Co., Ltd. has business cooperation with solid - state battery customers and has shipped nearly 50 tons of solid - state battery materials [42]. - **Logic Analysis** - The Indonesian copper mine accident and the suspension of some nickel mines in Indonesia have boosted nickel prices, but the impact on supply is limited. The net import of refined nickel in August decreased, and LME inventory is expected to increase [42]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Oscillate strongly [43]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [44]. - Options: Wait and see [45] 3.8 Stainless Steel - **Market Review** - Futures: The main SS2511 contract increased by 25 to 12,930 yuan/ton, and the index's positions decreased by 7,520 lots [47]. - Spot: The cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel prices are within a certain range [47]. - **Related Information** - On September 25, the national mainstream stainless steel social inventory decreased for the fifth consecutive week, mainly with the digestion of 400 - series resources [48]. - The US import tariff has a serious impact on the stainless steel market [48]. - **Logic Analysis** - The stainless steel production in September has increased significantly, but the demand has not shown seasonal peak characteristics. The slow reduction in inventory and cost support lead to an oscillatory trend [50]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Wide - range oscillation [51]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [52] 3.9 Tin - **Market Review** - Futures: The main Shanghai tin 2510 contract closed at 273,710 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,140 yuan/ton or 0.79%, and the positions increased by 2,908 lots to 53,950 lots [54]. - Spot: The spot tin ingot price increased, but the trading was poor, and the downstream demand was weak [54]. - **Related Information** - By 2035, the global 6G user penetration rate will be 22.3% [55]. - The Indonesian government suspended the mining activities of 190 mining enterprises, including about 14 tin - mining enterprises [55]. - **Logic Analysis** - The strong US dollar index restricts price increases. The supply of tin mines is still tight, and the demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Myanmar and the recovery of electronic consumption [56]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Maintain a high - level oscillation [59]. - Options: Wait and see [60] 3.10 Industrial Silicon - **Market Review** - Futures: The industrial silicon futures main contract oscillated strongly, closing at 9,055 yuan/ton, up 0.72% [61]. - Spot: The industrial silicon spot price remained stable [62]. - **Related Information** - In August, the export volume of industrial silicon products in China increased year - on - year and month - on - month [63]. - **Comprehensive Analysis** - The current inventory structure of industrial silicon is "low at both ends and high in the middle", and the production and market sentiment of polysilicon in October have a greater impact on prices [64]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Participate with long positions [65]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [65]. - Arbitrage: None [65] 3.11 Polysilicon - **Market Review** - Futures: The polysilicon futures main contract oscillated, closing at 51,365 yuan/ton, up 0.89% [66]. - Spot: The polysilicon spot price remained stable, and different types of polysilicon have different price ranges [66]. - **Related Information** - On September 24, Xinjiang Dongfang Hope's first - phase polysilicon production line started annual maintenance, and the third - phase project is ready for maintenance [67]. - **Comprehensive Analysis** - The polysilicon spot price is stable, and the 11 - contract faces the pressure of warehouse receipt cancellation. The demand in October is expected to weaken, but production will also decrease, and a small inventory increase is expected [69]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Trade with low - long band operations [70]. - Arbitrage: Reverse spread arbitrage between the 2511 and 2512 contracts [70]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [70] 3.12 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review** - Futures: The main 2511 contract increased by 680 to 74,040 yuan/ton, the index's positions decreased by 1,551 lots, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's warehouse receipts increased by 560 to 40,309 tons [71]. - Spot: The SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices decreased [71]. - **Important Information** - The US government is seeking to acquire up to 10% of the equity of American Lithium Corp [72]. - The US imposed a 15% tariff on EU - imported automobiles and auto products [72]. - **Logic Analysis** - On the supply side, the lack of processing profit and limited increase in lithium ore imports in September may affect production. On the demand side, although orders are full, the increase in the customer - supplied ratio may reduce downstream purchasing enthusiasm. Lithium prices are expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern [74]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Wide - range oscillation [75]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [75]. - Options: Sell a wide - straddle combination [75]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The deepening of the discount of zinc spot to futures reflects the market's pricing of loose near - term supply, with the futures - to - spot structure favoring "futures weaker than spot". After the macro - sentiment fades, fundamentals dominate pricing, and short - term upside is limited by high inventories. It may mainly maintain range - bound trading [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Quotes**: On September 19, 2025, the main Shanghai zinc contract (ZN2511) showed a narrow - range oscillating downward trend. It fluctuated around 22,000 yuan/ton after the opening and declined under pressure in the afternoon, finally closing at 22,040 yuan/ton [2]. - **Variety Prices**: There were 12 contracts for Shanghai zinc futures on that day. The total position of the variety was 236,875 lots, an increase of 7,057 lots compared to the previous trading day. Among them, the position of the active contract zn2511 increased by 13,863 lots [4]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Basis Data**: According to Wind data, the basis on that day was - 55 yuan/ton, and the contango widened significantly compared to the previous day's basis of - 25 yuan/ton [7]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Associated Data Tracking and Interpretation**: - **Macro - aspect**: After the Fed's interest rate cut in September, the previous macro - positive expectations were gradually digested. Long - position funds took profits, and market sentiment returned to rationality [8]. - **Supply - side**: In September, the number of maintenance at domestic smelters increased (enterprises such as Guangxi Yusheng and Hulunbuir Chihong affected a total production capacity of 500,000 tons). However, the annual resumption scale has reached 4.208 million tons (total resumption plan of 5.418 million tons), and supply pressure still exists [8]. - **Demand - side**: The "Golden September and Silver October" expectations were weak. Many galvanizing plants reduced or stopped production. Downstream buyers mainly used point - price procurement. The trading among traders was light before noon, and overall consumption improved slowly [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in October is 8.1%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 91.9%. For December, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 1%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 18.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 80.5% [7]. - The zinc market is currently flat with small price fluctuations. The Fed's rate cut is in line with market expectations. The decline in the Shanghai - London ratio has widened losses in refined zinc and imported ore imports, partially offset by an increase in imported ore processing fees [7]. - On the supply side, domestic smelters' operating rates have increased due to profit incentives, leading to increased refined zinc output and accelerated inventory accumulation. Overseas high - cost smelters are facing losses and have cut production, causing a continuous decline in LME inventories. The trend of increasing losses in refined zinc imports reflects the different situations of domestic and overseas smelting [7]. - From a global perspective, the supply of zinc ore is gradually becoming more abundant. Although the transmission from increased ore production to increased smelting output is delayed due to overseas smelter production cuts, the sufficient domestic smelting capacity can digest the increased ore output, ultimately leading to an increase in refined zinc production [7]. - On the demand side, it remains relatively stable, mainly maintaining the existing level. With supply increasing and demand stable, there is a tendency for an oversupply in the zinc market [7]. - In the short and medium term, the probability of a significant decline in zinc prices is low. In the long term, the expectation of a shift from balance to oversupply in the zinc market remains unchanged. It is advisable to lay out long - term short positions on rallies, and enterprises can purchase as needed for now [7]. Summary by Directory Part 1: Core Viewpoints - Summarized above [7] Part 2: Industry Fundamental - Supply Side - **Zinc Concentrate Output**: In June 2025, global zinc concentrate output was 1.0814 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.11%. The 2025 international long - term zinc ore TC price was set at $80/ton, the lowest in history, but the supply of zinc ore is still showing a marginal loosening trend [8]. - **Zinc Concentrate Imports and Processing Fees**: From January to August 2025, China's cumulative imports of zinc concentrate were 3.5033 million physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 44.02%. As of September 19, the imported ore processing fee was reported at $111.25/ton, and the domestic ore processing fee was reported at 3850 yuan/ton, showing a divergence between the two [11]. - **Smelter Profit Estimation**: The profit of domestic ore smelting remains good, while imported ore has turned into a loss due to the internal - external price ratio issue [14]. - **Refined Zinc Output**: In June 2025, global refined zinc output was 1.1565 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.22%. In August 2025, domestic refined zinc output was 624,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 28% [17]. - **Refined Zinc Import Profit and Import Volume**: From January to August 2025, China's cumulative net imports of refined zinc were 222,400 tons. The refined zinc import window is currently closed [20]. Part 3: Industry Fundamental - Consumption Side - **Refined Zinc Initial - stage Consumption**: In July 2025, domestic galvanized sheet output was 2.35 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.44%. The apparent consumption of galvanized products is relatively low, indicating weak actual demand and active destocking of hidden inventory in the industrial chain [25]. - **Refined Zinc Terminal Consumption**: From January to August 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment completion (excluding electricity) has declined. The back - end of the real estate market has stabilized at a low level, but front - end indicators such as new construction and construction are still weak [27]. - **Refined Zinc Terminal Consumption**: In August 2025, domestic automobile production was 2.815 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 12.95%. With consumer loan interest subsidies and the release of a new round of national subsidy funds, household appliance consumption is expected to maintain its resilience [29]. Part 4: Other Indicators - **Inventory**: Inventory shows an increase domestically and a decrease overseas. As domestic smelters continue to increase output, the trend of inventory accumulation in social warehouses will continue [32]. - **Spot Premium and Discount**: As of September 19, the LME 0 - 3 premium and discount for zinc was reported at a premium of $50.91/ton. With a significant increase in social inventory, the domestic spot premium is low [35]. - **Exchange Positions**: As of September 12, the net long position of LME zinc investment funds was 28,762 lots. The weighted position of SHFE zinc has recently stabilized [38].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The zinc market shows a neutral - weak strength analysis, with a continuous inventory accumulation trend [2][3] - Domestic zinc supply is expected to increase. Although there is a slight improvement in consumption, it is relatively limited. The inventory accumulation trend may continue, and prices lack upward momentum. In the medium - to - long term, a short - selling approach on rallies is recommended [5] - The contradiction between domestic and foreign markets is prominent, with an increasingly obvious pattern of stronger foreign and weaker domestic zinc prices. There is an opportunity for the export window to open in the fourth quarter, and it is advisable to hold short - to - medium - term (within a quarter) positive spread positions cautiously [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Price Changes**: The closing price of SHFE Zinc main contract last week was 22,045 yuan, with a weekly decline of 1.17%. The night - session closing price was 21,905 yuan, down 0.64%. The LmeS - Zinc 3 last week closed at 2,898.5 dollars, down 1.95% [6] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: The trading volume of SHFE Zinc main contract last Friday was 77,398 lots, a decrease of 26,205 lots from the previous week. The open interest was 61,844 lots, a decrease of 35,853 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 9,867 lots, a decrease of 4,640 lots, and the open interest was 217,061 lots, an increase of 12,255 lots [6] - **Inventory Changes**: SHFE Zinc warrant inventory increased by 6,626 tons to 52,531 tons; total SHFE Zinc inventory increased by 4,666 tons to 99,315 tons; social inventory increased by 4,300 tons to 158,500 tons; LME zinc inventory decreased by 2,700 tons to 47,825 tons; bonded - area inventory remained unchanged at 8,000 tons [6] 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished product inventories have risen to high levels, and zinc ingot visible inventory has increased [8] - **Profit**: Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are at a medium - to - high level in history. Mining enterprise profits are stable in the short term, smelting profits are stable at a medium - to - high historical level, and galvanized pipe enterprise profits are stable at a medium - to - low level in the same period [10][11] - **Operation Rate**: The zinc smelting operation rate has recovered to a high level, while the downstream operation rate is at a relatively low historical level. Zinc concentrate operation rate has declined, refined zinc operation rate has increased, and downstream galvanizing, die - casting zinc, and zinc oxide operation rates have increased but are still at a low level [12][13] 3.3 Trading Aspects - **Spot**: Spot premiums have declined slightly. Overseas premiums are relatively stable, with a slight decline in Antwerp, and the LME CASH - 3M structure has changed significantly [16][18] - **Spread**: SHFE Zinc shows a C structure [20] - **Inventory**: SHFE Zinc inventory continues to accumulate, and the open - interest - to - inventory ratio continues to decline. LME zinc inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore, with a short - term slight decline and at a medium - to - low level in the same period. Bonded - area inventory is stable, and the total global visible zinc inventory has increased slightly [25][31][34] - **Futures**: The domestic open interest is at a medium level in the same period [35] 3.4 Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports have increased significantly, domestic zinc ore production is at a medium historical level, import ore processing fees have continued to rise, and domestic ore processing fees have remained flat. Ore arrival volume is at a medium level, and smelter raw material inventory is abundant, at a high level in the same period [38][39] - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting output has increased and is at a high level in the same period. Smelter finished product inventory has increased and is at a high level in the same period. Zinc alloy output is at a high level. Refined zinc imports are at a medium historical level [46][48] - **Recycled Zinc Raw Materials**: Related data on recycled zinc raw materials such as the operation rate of independent electric - arc - furnace steel mills, the average price of galvanized pipe slag, and the waste - steel daily consumption of steel mills are presented [51][52][53] 3.5 Demand - **Refined Zinc Consumption**: The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive [57] - **Downstream Operation Rate**: The monthly downstream operation rate has declined slightly and is mostly at a medium - to - low level in the same period [60] - **Terminal Demand**: The real - estate market remains at a low level, while the power grid shows structural growth [72] 3.6 Overseas Factors - Data on European natural gas futures prices, EU carbon - quota contract prices, European electricity prices, and the profitability of overseas zinc smelters are presented [74][75][77]

Core Viewpoint - The report from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates that China's zinc production in August 2025 reached 651,000 tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.8% [1] Production Insights - In August, domestic smelters increased production, with regular maintenance occurring in regions such as Hunan and Gansu. In contrast, areas like Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia focused on resuming operations after maintenance. Additionally, new production capacity in regions like Jiangxi and Inner Mongolia continued to be released, leading to a month-on-month increase in zinc production [1] - In September, SMM reported that maintenance at smelters was primarily concentrated in Henan, Inner Mongolia, Hunan, and Yunnan. Some recycled zinc enterprises experienced a decline in production due to rising raw material prices and tight supply. However, production increased in regions such as Hunan, Shaanxi, Gansu, and Hubei, resulting in an overall production adjustment [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Under the influence of macro factors, zinc prices may show a strong trend. Considering the long - term oversupply of zinc, investors can lightly short at high prices; for arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see [5]. - From a fundamental perspective, domestic refined zinc supply may decrease slightly in September. Although there is an expectation of the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season, current terminal orders are lackluster, and domestic social inventories are continuously increasing. In contrast, LME inventories are decreasing, and the LME 0 - 3 has turned into a Back structure and is gradually expanding, which still supports LME zinc prices. Affected by overseas macro factors and LME zinc prices, the center of short - term Shanghai zinc prices may rise [6]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Trading Strategies** - **Unilateral Trading**: Zinc prices may be strong under macro influence. Due to long - term oversupply, short positions can be lightly established at high prices [5]. - **Arbitrage**: Temporarily wait and see [5]. Chapter 2: Market Data No specific data analysis content is provided in the given text, only some data item names such as "Spot Premium", "Absolute Price and Monthly Spread", "Shanghai Zinc Trading Volume and Open Interest", etc. Chapter 3: Fundamental Data - **Zinc Ore Supply** - **Production**: From January to June 2025, global zinc concentrate production was 6158300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 407300 tons or 7.08%. Overseas production was 4188300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 339300 tons or 8.81%, and Chinese production was 1970000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 68000 tons or 3.58%. In August 2025, SMM zinc concentrate production was 344800 metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.58% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.51%. It is expected to be 314500 metal tons in September, a month - on - month decrease of 8.79% [31]. - **Import**: In July 2025, imported zinc concentrate was 501400 tons (physical tons), a month - on - month increase of 51.97% (171500 physical tons) and a year - on - year increase of 33.58%. From January to July, the cumulative imported zinc concentrate was 3035400 tons (physical tons), a cumulative year - on - year increase of 45.2%. The top three import source countries in July were Australia, Peru, and Russia [40]. - **Total Domestic Supply**: In July 2025, the total domestic supply of zinc concentrate was about 572400 metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.69%. From January to July, the cumulative total supply was 3453600 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 12.76% [43]. - **Processing Fees**: In September, the monthly processing fee for domestic Zn50 zinc concentrate reached 3950 yuan/ton, an increase of 2350 yuan/ton compared to December 2024. On September 12, the weekly processing fee for domestic Zn50 zinc concentrate was 3850 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index rose by 2.5 US dollars/dry ton to 98.75 US dollars/dry ton [47]. - **Refined Zinc Supply** - **Global**: In June 2025, global refined zinc production was 1156500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.22%. In May, global refined zinc demand was 1183700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.7%. There was a shortage of 27200 tons. From January to June 2025, global refined zinc production was 6665600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 213600 tons or 3.11%; consumption was 6597600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17300 tons or 0.26%. There was a cumulative surplus of 68000 tons [53]. - **Domestic**: In August 2025, the domestic refined zinc enterprise operating rate was 96.34%, a month - on - month increase of 2.5%. SMM China's refined zinc production in August was 626200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 23400 tons or 3.88%, and a year - on - year increase of 28.77%. From January to August, the cumulative production was 4469000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.49%. It is expected that the domestic refined zinc production in September will be 609800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.64 tons or 2.61%, and a year - on - year increase of 22.14% [56]. - **Import**: In July 2025, the import of refined zinc was 17900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18100 tons or 50.35%, and a year - on - year decrease of 2.97%. From January to July, the cumulative import was 209900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 12.72%. The top three import countries in July were Kazakhstan, Australia, and India [58]. - **Consumption** - **Downstream开工率**: The downstream zinc开工率 increased significantly this week, mainly due to the resumption of production of enterprises restricted by environmental protection, but terminal orders have not improved significantly. With the approaching of the traditional consumption peak season, the start - up of downstream enterprises and new orders need to be monitored [6]. - **Inventory** - **Domestic**: As of September 11, the total inventory of SMM's seven - region zinc ingots was 154200 tons, an increase of 5200 tons compared to September 4 and an increase of 2100 tons compared to September 8 [6]. - **LME**: On September 11, LME zinc inventory was 50500 tons, a decrease of 2550 tons compared to September 5 [6].