锌产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属组 季先飞 （首席分析师/联席行政负责人） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 日期：2025年9月28日 | 数据 | | --- | Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 锌：供应端压力不减，去库拐点有待进一步确认 强弱分析：中性偏弱 本周锌锭出现去库 镀锌开工小幅回落 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 第 2 页 资料来源：SMM、钢联、同花顺、Bloomberg、国泰君安期货研究所 ◆ 国内供应端压力不减。当下进口锌精矿亏损不断扩大，对国产矿采购需求进一步提升， 国产矿TC承压；本周河南、广西地区企业恢复生产，10月江西、河南两家冶炼厂月中 存检修计划，但从最新排产数据来看，预计10月国内锌锭供应或继续增加，供应端压 力不减。 ◆ 消费端小幅改善，但相对有限。临近国庆假期，下游存在节前备库 ...

9月24日（周三），Rosh Pinah锌业公司（RPZ）已获得标准银行提供的1.5亿美元债务融资，为其在纳 米比亚地下开采矿山的扩建项目提供资金。 该扩项项目将使Rosh Pinah矿基础设施现代化并令其锌产量（精矿含锌量）几乎翻一番，达到1.7亿磅/ 年。 这笔融资将为矿山扩建剩余建设成本提供资金。 该扩建项目包括进一步开发井下开采矿山，以及建设新的地面设施，包括一个新选矿厂、一个水处理厂 以及一个新开发的入口。 目前该扩建项目施工已完成逾80%，仍在预算范围内，预计将于2026年第三季度完工，并迅速开始扩大 该矿产出。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed's potential rate - cut in September and the weakening US dollar are favorable for risk assets, but the uncertainty of the Fed's personnel changes may disrupt market risk appetite. The domestic economy has the basis to achieve the annual growth target, and mild stimulus measures are expected to be introduced [2][87]. - Zinc concentrate supply is steadily recovering, with the growth of domestic ore processing fees slowing down and the acceleration of the recovery of imported ore processing fees. In September, due to more refinery maintenance plans, refined zinc production is expected to decrease by 2.62% to 60.98 tons, and zinc ingot imports still face large losses [2][87]. - Zinc demand is differentiated. Infrastructure construction is expected to speed up, and the issuance of the third batch of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds supports the domestic sales of durable goods. The delay of Sino - US tariff policies eases the export pressure of related products, and the concentrated grid - connection of deep - sea projects promotes the development of the wind power industry. However, the real estate market is weak, photovoltaic demand is overdrawn, and galvanized sheets are affected by anti - dumping, which will drag down consumption [2][87]. - Overall, the Fed's potential rate - cut and domestic economic support policies provide support for zinc prices. With the reduction of supply pressure and the approaching of the traditional peak demand season, zinc prices are expected to stabilize and rebound in September. Attention should be paid to whether the improvement in consumption can be effectively realized [2][87][88] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Zinc Market Review - In August, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc fluctuated in a narrow range at a low level, with a monthly decline of 0.92%. London zinc's center of gravity moved slightly upward, with a monthly increase of 1.88% [6]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis 3.2.1 US Situation - The US economy is mixed. Employment is cooling, inflation is moderate, and the Fed's stance has turned dovish. The probability of a rate cut in September is high, and the US dollar is in a weak position, which is favorable for risk assets. However, the uncertainty of the Fed's personnel changes will affect market risk appetite [8][9][10]. 3.2.2 Eurozone Situation - The eurozone's manufacturing prosperity is continuously recovering, inflation is stable, and the employment market is improving. The ECB is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in September, but the political crisis in France may put pressure on the euro [11][13]. 3.2.3 Domestic Situation - Most domestic economic indicators slowed down in July, but exports showed strong resilience. The annual growth target can still be achieved, and mild stimulus measures are expected to be introduced [14][15]. 3.3 Zinc Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Zinc Ore Supply - Global zinc concentrate supply is recovering. Overseas zinc concentrate is expected to increase by about 550,000 tons this year, and domestic zinc concentrate is expected to increase by about 100,000 tons. Zinc concentrate processing fees are rising, and zinc ore imports in July exceeded expectations [28][32][33]. 3.3.2 Refined Zinc Supply - In 2025, from January to June, global refined zinc production decreased year - on - year. Domestic production increased, while overseas production decreased. In September, refined zinc production is expected to decrease by 2.62% month - on - month, and zinc ingot imports are expected to decline [38][44][45]. 3.3.3 Refined Zinc Demand - From January to June 2025, global refined zinc consumption increased year - on - year. In the overseas market, the improvement of real estate and automobile consumption is uncertain. In the domestic market, the start - up of downstream primary processing enterprises in September is expected to improve, and the export of galvanized sheets has resilience. Traditional consumption sectors such as infrastructure and real estate show different trends, and emerging consumption sectors such as new energy have both opportunities and challenges [52][59][61]. 3.3.4 Inventory - In August, LME zinc inventory decreased rapidly, and domestic social inventory increased seasonally. In September, domestic social inventory is expected to turn to destocking [85]. 3.4 Summary and Outlook - The Fed's potential rate - cut and domestic economic support policies support zinc prices. With the reduction of supply pressure and the approaching of the traditional peak demand season, zinc prices are expected to stabilize and rebound in September. Attention should be paid to the improvement of consumption [87][88].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The zinc market has an oversupply situation with increasing supply and weak demand, and the domestic inventory is continuously accumulating. The fundamental surplus pattern remains unchanged. Considering the current warm macro - sentiment and the continuous decline of LME inventory to an absolute low level, it provides some support for zinc prices. In the short term, zinc prices will maintain a range - bound pattern, with the operating range referring to 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton. Subsequently, continuous attention should be paid to changes in macro - sentiment and overseas risks [3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract decreased by 0.61% to 22,140 yuan/ton, the average price of SMM1 zinc ingots decreased by 0.86% to 21,940 yuan/ton, and the LME zinc closing price (electronic trading) increased by 0.30% to 2,814 US dollars/ton [10]. - Due to good profits, the supply of zinc ingots remained loose. The start - up rate of galvanizing decreased due to poor demand and environmental protection impacts. The start - up rate of die - casting zinc alloy slightly increased with a slight improvement in demand. The inventory of zinc oxide finished products decreased with improved shipments. The social inventory of zinc ingots continued to accumulate [4][15]. 3.2 Raw Material End - **Zinc Concentrate Port Inventory**: As of August 29, the inventory of imported zinc ore in Lianyungang was 140,000 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous period. The total inventory of 7 ports, including Fangchenggang, Lianyungang, etc., was 414,000 tons, an increase of 25,500 tons compared to the previous period [18]. - **Zinc Concentrate Profit**: As of August 28, the production profit of zinc concentrate enterprises was 3,748 yuan/metal ton. In July, the import volume of zinc concentrate was 501,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.97% and a year - on - year increase of 33.58%. From January to July, the cumulative import volume was 3,035,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 45.20% [25]. - **Import TC**: The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee remained unchanged at 3,900 yuan/metal ton, and the import zinc concentrate processing fee index increased to 93.75 US dollars/dry ton [3]. 3.3 Supply End - **Refined Zinc Production**: The production profit of refined zinc enterprises continued to improve. As of August 28, the production profit was - 188 yuan/ton. In July, the domestic refined zinc output was 602,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17,700 tons. It is expected that the output in August will increase to about 620,000 - 630,000 tons [33]. - **Refined Zinc Import**: The import profit window was closed. As of August 29, the import profit of refined zinc was - 1,839.26 yuan/ton. From January to July 2025, the cumulative import volume of refined zinc was 209,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 30,600 tons [36]. 3.4 Demand End - **Galvanizing**: The start - up rate of galvanizing enterprises decreased by 1.95 percentage points to 55.47%. The raw material inventory decreased, and the finished product inventory increased. The weak black prices, poor downstream demand, environmental protection restrictions, and other factors led to a continuous decline in the start - up rate [40][43]. - **Die - Casting Zinc Alloy**: The average price of Zamak3 zinc alloy decreased by 0.83% to 22,635 yuan/ton, and the average price of Zamak5 zinc alloy decreased by 0.81% to 23,185 yuan/ton. The start - up rate increased by 0.32 percentage points to 50.78%. The raw material inventory increased, and the finished product inventory slightly increased [49][50][54]. - **Zinc Oxide**: The average price of zinc oxide ≥99.7% decreased by 0.47% to 21,100 yuan/ton. The start - up rate decreased by 4.2 percentage points to 51.69%. Both the raw material inventory and the finished product inventory decreased [58][61][64]. 3.5 Inventory - **Domestic Inventory**: As of August 28, the SMM zinc ingot three - place inventory was 134,700 tons, showing an increase. The SMM zinc ingot bonded area inventory was 7,500 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous period. As of August 29, the SHFE inventory was 86,000 tons, showing an increase [69][72]. - **LME Inventory**: As of August 28, the LME inventory was 56,500 tons, dropping to an absolute low level [72]. - **Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In June 2025, the supply - demand balance was 24,000 tons; in May, it was - 21,600 tons; in April, it was - 44,000 tons; in March, it was - 15,200 tons; in February, it was 89,700 tons; in January, it was 4,800 tons [78].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc futures stopped falling and stabilized. The improvement of PMI data in Europe and the US and the dovish interpretation of Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting increased the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, improving market risk appetite. Domestically, the A-share market continued to strengthen [3][10]. - Fundamentally, LME zinc inventories continued to decline, supporting the pattern of stronger overseas and weaker domestic zinc markets. Affected by concentrated arrivals, the zinc ore imports in July exceeded expectations, and refineries had sufficient raw material inventories, supporting stable production. The imports of refined zinc decreased in July as expected, and it is expected to remain at the current level. The smelting end maintained high supply, while downstream consumption did not improve significantly. After the decline in zinc prices, downstream buyers actively replenished their stocks at low prices, resulting in a slight decrease in inventories, but the sustainability remains to be seen [4][10]. - Overall, Powell's dovish stance boosted the rate - cut expectation and repaired market risk appetite. There were no new contradictions in the fundamentals. The decline in LME inventories and increased low - price purchases by domestic downstream provided support, but the high supply pressure from stable mining and smelting production suppressed zinc prices. Technically, the futures price found support near the previous low. In the short term, with the boost of macro - sentiment, zinc prices are expected to repair with a volatile and upward trend [4][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | August 15 | August 22 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Zinc | 22505 | 22275 | - 230 | Yuan/ton | | LME Zinc | 2796.5 | 2805.5 | 9 | US dollars/ton | | Shanghai - London Ratio | 8.05 | 7.94 | - 0.11 | - | | SHFE Inventory | 76803 | 77838 | 1035 | Tons | | LME Inventory | 76325 | 68075 | - 8250 | Tons | | Social Inventory | 11.69 | 10.37 | - 1.32 | Ten thousand tons | | Spot Premium | - 50 | - 40 | 10 | Yuan/ton | [5] 3.2 Market Review - The decline of the main contract of Shanghai zinc futures (ZN2510) slowed down last week, and it stabilized and repaired in the second half of the week. The market was waiting for Powell's speech for rate - cut guidance, and the low - price purchases by downstream led to a slight decrease in weekly inventories, providing support. The contract finally closed at 22275 Yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.02%. It rose during the Friday night session [6]. - LME zinc fluctuated narrowly in the first half of the week. The market revised its rate - cut expectation, and the US dollar stabilized and rebounded, suppressing the LME zinc price. On Friday, the rate - cut expectation recovered, and the contract closed at 2805.5 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.32% [6]. - In the spot market, as of August 22, the mainstream transaction price of Shanghai 0 zinc was concentrated between 22220 - 22290 Yuan/ton, with a discount of 10 - 0 Yuan/ton to the 2509 contract. In different markets, the prices and discounts varied. In general, downstream low - price purchases were more frequent in the first half of the week, but with no obvious improvement in consumption, purchases decreased in the second half of the week, and traders' quotes remained stable, with the premium remaining weak [7]. - In terms of inventory, as of August 22, LME zinc inventory was 68075 tons, a weekly decrease of 8250 tons. SHFE inventory was 77838 tons, an increase of 1035 tons from the previous week. As of August 21, social inventory was 13.29 million tons, an increase of 0.37 million tons from August 14 and a decrease of 0.26 million tons from August 18. The decline in the zinc price center during the week boosted downstream purchasing enthusiasm, leading to a slight decrease in inventories in many places [8]. - Macroeconomically, the preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in August reached 53.3, the highest level since May 2022, far exceeding the expected 49.5. The service PMI slightly declined to 55.4, but the significant rebound in manufacturing pushed the composite PMI to a 9 - month high of 55.4. The preliminary value of the Eurozone PMI in August rebounded from 49.8 to 50.5, breaking above the boom - bust line for the first time since June 2022, higher than the expected 49.5. The US and the EU reached a framework for a trade agreement, with the EU promising to cancel all US industrial product tariffs and plan to purchase US energy and AI chips worth billions of dollars. The Fed's July meeting minutes showed a hawkish signal, but after Powell's speech, traders increased their bets on a Fed rate cut in September [8][9]. 3.3 Industry News - As of August 22, the average weekly domestic TC of SMM Zn50 was flat at 3900 Yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index rose by 2.2 US dollars/dry ton to 92.5 US dollars/dry ton [12]. - According to customs data, in July, zinc concentrate imports were 501,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.97% and a year - on - year increase of 33.58%. From January to July, the cumulative zinc concentrate imports were 3.0354 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 45.2%. In July, refined zinc imports were 17,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50.35% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.97%. From January to July, the cumulative refined zinc imports were 209,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 12.72%. In July, galvanized sheet exports were 1.1975 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.86% and a year - on - year increase of 13%. In July, die - cast zinc alloy exports were 241.35 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 61.21% [12][13]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the price trend charts of SHFE zinc and LME zinc, the ratio of domestic and foreign markets, spot and LME premiums, inventory data of SHFE, LME, social and bonded areas, domestic and foreign zinc ore processing fees, zinc ore import profit and loss, refined zinc net imports, domestic refined zinc production, smelter profits, and downstream primary enterprise operating rates [15][16][17].

Group 1: Zinc Market Overview - Zinc prices have entered a downward trend due to a relaxed supply side and disappointing demand expectations in the U.S. macroeconomic environment [1] - The U.S. tariff policy adjustments under the Trump administration are expected to lead to a long-term decline in the dollar, which will positively impact zinc prices [2] - Domestic zinc concentrate production has slightly decreased year-on-year due to declining ore grades, with future increases expected to be limited [3] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Overseas mining production is anticipated to recover in the medium to long term, despite recent reductions due to weather and maintenance issues [2] - Domestic zinc smelting output is expected to increase year-on-year, but the growth potential remains limited due to reduced imports from overseas smelters [3] - The overall supply of zinc ore is expected to continue growing, but the year-on-year increase will be relatively modest [2][3] Group 3: Demand Factors - Weak demand is observed in the construction sector, with significant declines in operating rates for cement and asphalt facilities [4] - The real estate sector is experiencing a downturn, with new construction and completion areas showing a year-on-year decline [4] - The automotive sector is seeing growth driven by trade-in policies and promotions, which may support zinc demand in the medium to long term [4] Group 4: Price Outlook - The combination of a declining dollar and resilient macro data is expected to provide some support for zinc prices [5] - However, the ongoing increase in supply coupled with weak demand will lead to a more relaxed supply-demand structure, potentially putting downward pressure on prices [5] - The expected price range for zinc may shift downward, but the space for decline is expected to be narrower than before due to limited supply growth and macroeconomic support [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - environment shows that concerns about the US economic recession resurface, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September increases. In China, the economic pressure eases in the second half of the year, and the macro - environment tends to be stable [2][83]. - On the supply side, overseas zinc mine production is mostly stable, and domestic mine output is steadily released. In August, zinc processing fees continue to rise, refinery profits improve, and the supply of refined zinc is expected to increase by 12,000 tons month - on - month [2][83]. - The demand side is differentiated. High - temperature and heavy - rain weather affects infrastructure construction. The Yalong River project boosts consumption expectations but has limited actual impact. The trade - in policy has overdrawn some demand. Zinc consumption in the automotive and home - appliance sectors weakens marginally but remains resilient. The wind - power industry and galvanized product exports support demand, while the slowdown in the photovoltaic industry and the weak real - estate market drag down demand [2][83]. - Overall, the domestic policy expectations are fulfilled, but overseas economic concerns resurface. The market risk preference weakens. The supply of zinc continues to grow, while the demand is lackluster. The fundamental situation remains weak, and the high - level hedging demand in the industry suppresses zinc prices. However, the high concentration of LME zinc delivery warrants provides a basis for a short squeeze, which may support zinc prices or slow down the decline. It is expected that the main contract of Shanghai zinc will show a weak and volatile pattern in August, and the strategy is to sell on rebounds [2][84]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Zinc Market行情回顾 - In early July, Shanghai zinc continued to oscillate at a low level. In late July, the price first rose and then fell. By the end of July, the price closed at 22,345 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 0.67%. LME zinc's center of gravity moved up, and it closed at 2,762 US dollars/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 0.77% [7]. 3.2 Macro - aspect 3.2.1 US Aspect - The US economy weakens, with the ISM manufacturing PMI in July hitting a nine - month low, and the non - farm employment data braking sharply. Inflation rebounds slightly, and the Fed's interest - rate decision shows internal differences. After the non - farm employment data in July, the expectation of a September interest - rate cut increases significantly. The US has reached trade agreements with some countries, and the global tariff level is expected to be 15 - 20%, with the tariff - driven factor weakening [10][11][12]. 3.2.2 Euro - zone Aspect - The Euro - zone economy shows certain resilience driven by domestic demand, with the comprehensive PMI in July rising. Inflation rebounds slightly, and the ECB suspends interest - rate cuts. However, the US - EU tariff agreement increases trade costs and will impact the EU's automotive and pharmaceutical industries [13][14]. 3.2.3 China Aspect - China's GDP in Q2 2025 increased by 5.2% year - on - year, slightly lower than that in Q1. The economy in June showed a differentiated performance, with external demand and production rebounding, while consumption and investment weakening. The Politburo meeting at the end of the month indicated that the focus of fiscal policy in the second half of the year is on implementation, and the expectation of strong stimulus policies weakens [15][16][17]. 3.3 Zinc Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Zinc Ore Supply Situation - **Global Zinc Concentrate Supply Shifts from Tight to Loose**: In 2025, from January to May, the global zinc concentrate cumulative output was 4.9589 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.58%. Overseas mines are generally stable in production, and it is estimated that the overseas zinc ore increment for the whole year will be 55 - 60 million tons. In China, new mines are being put into production, and the annual increment is expected to be 9 - 10 million tons [31][32][33]. - **Zinc Concentrate Processing Fees Continue to Rise Month - on - Month, and Zinc Ore Imports Decline Significantly Month - on - Month**: In August, domestic and imported zinc concentrate processing fees increased. Due to the stable recovery of zinc ore supply, smelters have a high bargaining power. The zinc ore import volume in June decreased significantly month - on - month. Although overseas mines are releasing incremental output, factors such as the loss of zinc ore imports and the weakening of the Shanghai - London ratio may limit future imports, but there is still a possibility of a rebound [39]. 3.3.2 Refined Zinc Supply Situation - **Overseas Smelters Have Both Production Cuts and Expansions, and Supply Disturbance Risks Remain**: From January to May 2025, the global refined zinc cumulative output decreased year - on - year, mainly due to overseas production cuts. Some overseas smelters have reduced production, while some have expanded production. It is expected that the global refined zinc supply increment will mainly come from China [45]. - **Refined Zinc Output from January to July Slightly Exceeds Expectations, and Output in August Remains Above 600,000 Tons**: In July, China's refined zinc output was 602,800 tons, and it is expected to reach 621,500 tons in August. The import volume of refined zinc in June increased, but since May, the import window has been closed, and future imports will mainly be long - term contracts [50][51]. 3.3.3 Refined Zinc Demand Situation - **High Interest Rates and Tariffs Disturb Overseas Demand, Which is Under Pressure**: From January to May 2025, the global refined zinc consumption increased slightly year - on - year. In overseas markets, high interest rates and tariffs have a negative impact on the real - estate and automotive industries, and overseas terminal consumption is difficult to improve significantly [61][62]. - **The Start - up of Initial Enterprises is Seasonally Weak, and Galvanized Exports Remain Resilient**: In July, the start - up rate of initial enterprises was weak, in line with the seasonal pattern. Galvanized product exports increased in June, but it is expected to decline marginally in July [64][65]. - **Terminal Consumption is Differentiated**: In the traditional infrastructure sector, the growth rate of infrastructure investment has slowed down, but it is expected to accelerate in the second half of the year. The real - estate market is still weak, with both investment and sales declining. The automotive and home - appliance industries have certain resilience, but the growth rate may slow down. The photovoltaic industry has slowed down, while the wind - power industry is expected to continue to grow [69][70][72][74][76][77]. 3.3.4 Overseas Inventory Continues to Decline from a High Level, and Domestic Inventory Increases Slightly - In July, LME inventory decreased, and there were concerns about a short squeeze, which pushed up zinc prices. Social inventory in China increased slowly. It is expected that inventory will continue to increase seasonally in early August but will stop increasing in late August as downstream demand recovers [，81]. 3.4 Summary and Future Outlook - The macro - environment tends to be stable, the supply of zinc shows an increasing trend, and the demand is differentiated. The fundamental situation of zinc remains weak, but the high concentration of LME zinc delivery warrants may support zinc prices. It is expected that the Shanghai zinc main contract will show a weak and volatile pattern in August, and the strategy is to sell on rebounds [83][84].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report's investment rating for the zinc industry is mainly "oscillating" [6] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - This week, zinc prices showed a wide - range oscillation, closing at 22,885 yuan per ton. Domestic zinc ingot inventories are at a low level in recent years, and LME inventories are also decreasing. The overall zinc market was strongly influenced by anti - involution sentiment this week, remaining relatively strong, but the upward momentum was insufficient after Monday, gradually moving towards high - level oscillation, with a decline in Friday's night session [1] - In the short term, if there are no strong policy measures to stimulate the non - ferrous industry again, the market will return to fundamentals, and it is advisable to sell on rallies overall [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Performance - **Futures Market**: The closing price of SHFE zinc futures' main contract was 22,885 yuan, up 3.41% week - on - week; LME zinc closed at 2,823.5 dollars, up 4.15% week - on - week [6] - **Spot Market**: The price of 0 zinc ingot was 22,770 yuan per ton, up 2.02% week - on - week; 1 zinc ingot was 22,700 yuan per ton, also up 2.02% week - on - week [16] 2. Industry News - **Canadian Mining Company Teck Resources**: In Q2 2025, Red Dog mine produced 136,600 metal tons of zinc concentrate, slightly down year - on - year due to lower ore grades; lead concentrate production remained stable at 27,500 tons. The sales volume of zinc concentrate in Q2 was 35,100 metal tons, down 35% year - on - year, but still higher than the guidance range. Teck expects the inventory accumulated in the first half of the year to be released in Q3, with a sales guidance range of 200,000 - 250,000 metal tons. Trail smelter produced 50,900 tons of refined zinc in Q2, 14,000 tons less than last year, in line with the company's plan to maximize profitability by reducing production [2] - **Glencore**: Glencore announced on July 22 that it would sell its Lady Loretta zinc mine and related land to Austral Resources. Lady Loretta is expected to close at the end of 2025, and after its closure, the lead - zinc concentrate production of Mount Isa may decrease by about one - third [3] 3. Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply Side** - **Mining End**: In June, zinc ore imports declined, but were still strong year - on - year. The port inventory of zinc concentrates in China was 354,000 tons, up 86,000 tons week - on - week [1] - **Smelting End**: The operating rate of smelters remained strong this week, with a strong willingness to resume production. The treatment charge (TC) continued to rise, and profit repair was stable [3] - **Demand Side**: The operating rate of downstream industries mainly decreased week - on - week, affected by the off - season of consumption and high zinc prices this week, showing a weak performance [3] 4. Inventory Situation - Domestic inventories increased due to high zinc prices, showing short - term oscillation. With the resumption of smelter production and weak downstream demand, inventories may gradually rise. LME zinc inventories are at a low level in recent years, supporting zinc prices [5] 5. Production and Utilization Rate - In June 2025, the capacity utilization rate of zinc concentrates was 100.81%, with a month - on - month increase of 10.45% and a year - on - year increase of 4.03% [33] - In June 2025, the production of refined zinc was 496,700 tons, down 1.88% year - on - year; the production of zinc concentrates was 328,300 tons, up 4.75% year - on - year [33] 6. Import and Export Data - In June 2025, the import volume of zinc concentrates was 329,957 tons, up 22.42% year - on - year; the import volume of refined zinc was 36,061 tons, up 3.24% year - on - year [36] 7. Supply - Demand Balance - In June 2025, the supply - demand balance of zinc concentrates was - 2,000 metal tons, down 96.5% year - on - year and 103.85% month - on - month; the supply - demand balance of refined zinc was 24,000 tons, down 2500.00% year - on - year and 211.11% month - on - month [45] 8. Downstream Consumption - The weekly operating rates of galvanizing, zinc oxide, and die - casting zinc alloys were 59.42%, 55.99%, and 51.03% respectively, with week - on - week changes of + 0.3%, - 0.33%, and - 0.92% [48]

Core Insights - Zinc holds a significant position in the global metal industry, ranking fourth in both production and consumption, with an annual market value of $40 billion [1] - The U.S. zinc industry has faced a decline, with its production accounting for only about 6% of the global total, significantly lagging behind China's 33% [4][5] - The Red Dog mine in Alaska, which produces nearly 70% of U.S. zinc, is facing resource depletion challenges, with predictions of a 7% production decline by 2025 and closure by 2031 [5][6] Industry Overview - Zinc's primary value lies in its galvanizing properties, which prevent corrosion in steel materials, making it essential in construction, infrastructure, and manufacturing [1] - The refining process of zinc also allows for the extraction of germanium and gallium, both of which are critical for the semiconductor industry, with the U.S. lacking domestic production capabilities for these minerals [1] Historical Context - Historically, the U.S. dominated the zinc processing sector with 19 large processing plants, but strategic shifts and reduced government intervention led to a decline in domestic production [3][4] - By the late 1980s, the U.S. zinc industry had significantly deteriorated, with outdated infrastructure and a lack of new investments [4] Current Challenges - The U.S. zinc industry is experiencing structural issues, including a lack of exploration investment, which has resulted in a significant decline in new resource discoveries [7] - The average zinc grade in new projects is considerably lower than historical levels, indicating a decline in resource quality [9] - The U.S. is heavily reliant on imports for refined zinc, with 73% of its refined zinc coming from abroad, despite having a domestic production of zinc concentrate [9][11] Future Prospects - The Hermosa project in Arizona is highlighted as a strategic mining development that could produce both zinc and manganese, with significant reserves and a promising future [6] - The global zinc consumption demand is expected to rise, driven by the automotive industry, with forecasts indicating an increase of nearly 700,000 tons annually by 2030 [6] Market Dynamics - The zinc market is currently facing a supply-demand imbalance, with a projected supply gap of 164,000 tons in 2024, leading to challenges for refining operations [10] - The price of zinc has dropped nearly 33% from its peak in 2022, exacerbating the difficulties faced by the industry [10][11] - Trade tensions, particularly with Canada, threaten the stability of the North American zinc supply chain, impacting downstream industries reliant on zinc [11]

1. Report Sector Investment Rating - The investment rating for the zinc industry is neutral [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The zinc market is experiencing slow inventory accumulation, with short - term price fluctuations and a mid - to long - term bearish outlook. The supply is increasing while the demand is entering the traditional off - season, leading to a potential surplus situation [3][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Price**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract last week was 22,410 yuan/ton with a weekly increase of 0.00%, and the night - session closing price was 22,240 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.76%. LmeS - zinc3 last week closed at 2,735.5 dollars/ton, down 1.55% [7] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract last Friday was 153,571 lots, a decrease of 72,253 lots from the previous week, and the open interest was 128,000 lots, a decrease of 14,428 lots. For LmeS - zinc3, the trading volume was 4,385 lots, a decrease of 8,080 lots, and the open interest was 205,849 lots, a decrease of 4,129 lots [7] - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc warrant inventory increased by 874 tons to 7,246 tons, and the total SHFE zinc inventory increased by 1,731 tons to 45,364 tons. The social inventory increased by 2,900 tons to 82,400 tons, while LME zinc inventory decreased by 6,900 tons to 112,325 tons [7] 3.2 Industry Chain Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished product inventories have risen to high levels, and the visible zinc ingot inventory has increased but remains relatively low [9] - **Profit**: Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are at a medium level. Mining enterprise profits are stable in the short - term and at a historical medium level, smelting profits are also stable and at a historical medium level, and galvanized pipe enterprise profits are stable at a medium - to - low level compared to the same period [11][12] - **Operation Rate**: The zinc smelting operation rate has recovered to a high level, while the downstream operation rate is at a historically low level. Zinc concentrate operation rate has rebounded to a historical medium level, refined zinc monthly operation rate is at a high level compared to the same period, and the operation rates of downstream galvanizing and die - casting zinc have declined and are at a medium - to - low historical level [13][14] 3.3 Trading Aspects - **Spot**: Spot premiums have recently rebounded from high levels. Overseas premiums are relatively stable, with a slight decline in Antwerp, and the LME CASH - 3M structure has changed significantly [16][17] - **Spread**: The near - end of SHFE zinc shows a B structure, and the far - end structure is gradually moving out of the back structure [19] - **Inventory**: Inventories are showing a stable upward trend from a low level, and the ratio of open interest to inventory has declined from a high level. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore, with a short - term decrease and at a medium level compared to the same period in history. The CASH - 3M is related to LME off - warrant inventory [20][21][22] 3.4 Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports are at a high level, domestic zinc ore production is at a medium - to - low level, and the recovery rate of processing fees for domestic and imported ores has slowed down [29] - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting output has marginally recovered, smelter finished product inventory is at a medium - to - high level compared to the same period in history, and zinc alloy production is at a high level [31] - **Imports and Exports**: Refined zinc imports are at a historical medium level [34] 3.5 Demand - **Refined Zinc Consumption**: The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive [39] - **Downstream**: The monthly downstream operation rate has slightly decreased, mostly at a medium - to - low level compared to the same period in history. The downstream raw material inventory and finished product inventory show different trends [40][41] - **Terminal Demand**: The real estate market remains at a low level, while the power grid shows structural growth [54] 3.6 Overseas Factors - European electricity prices, natural gas prices, and carbon prices show different trends, which have an impact on the profitability of zinc smelters in European countries [56]