Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not available in the provided content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the center of the Shanghai zinc futures price fluctuated downward. The U.S. core inflation slowed down, but the risk of the U.S.-Iran war escalating led to a surge in crude oil prices, strengthening inflation expectations, suppressing interest rate cuts, and causing the U.S. dollar to strengthen, which dragged down the prices of risk assets. In China, new credit and social financing were better than expected, but the consumption was still weak, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose [3][9]. - The negative impact of the blocked navigation in the Strait of Hormuz has emerged. After the Spring Festival, China's zinc ore imports from Iran have significantly decreased. Although Iran's annual zinc ore production and its share in China's import structure are limited, the increase in global overseas zinc ore this year is far lower than last year, amplifying the marginal impact of the supply disruption of Iranian zinc ore. The trade interruption and concerns about low inventory in the off - season have supported the high - level operation of natural gas prices, increasing the cost of European zinc smelters and weakening the production resilience [3][9]. - The recovery of downstream consumption in China after the Spring Festival was less than expected. Environmental protection in the north affected the shipment, and the finished product inventory of galvanizing enterprises was overstocked. The order improvement of die - casting zinc alloy and zinc oxide enterprises was limited, suppressing the willingness to replenish inventory, and enterprises mainly consumed existing inventory. At the same time, the resumption of production of smelters after the Spring Festival was stable, and with the gradual recovery of logistics, the inventory in factories was transferred to social inventory, and the inventory has climbed to 268,800 tons, with no obvious signal of inventory reduction [3][9]. - Overall, the tough stance of Iran and the U.S. dispatch of a Marine expeditionary force have re - activated the inflation trading logic. The delay of interest rate cut expectations supports the strength of the U.S. dollar, putting pressure on zinc prices. The long - short pattern of the fundamentals is relatively balanced. The weak consumption recovery and high inventory continue to put pressure, while the supply disruption of zinc ore and the production risk of European smelters provide potential support. However, before there is a substantial reduction in production at the smelting end, the support logic is still weak. With the continuous strengthening of market inflation expectations, the adjustment pressure on zinc prices has increased, and it is expected to remain under pressure and fluctuate in the short term [3][10] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Trading Data - The price of SHFE zinc decreased from 24,260 yuan/ton on March 6th to 24,140 yuan/ton on March 13th, a decrease of 120 yuan/ton. The price of LME zinc decreased from 3323 dollars/ton to 3293.5 dollars/ton, a decrease of 29.5 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio increased from 7.30 to 7.33, an increase of 0.03. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased from 134,921 tons to 147,348 tons, an increase of 12,427 tons. The LME inventory increased from 94,975 tons to 97,900 tons, an increase of 2,925 tons. The social inventory increased from 256,300 tons to 268,800 tons, an increase of 12,500 tons. The spot premium decreased from - 90 yuan/ton to - 120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [4] 2. Market Review - Last week, the price of the Shanghai zinc main contract ZN2604 fluctuated in a narrow range, with the center of gravity moving slightly downward, closing at 24,140 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 0.49%. It fluctuated weakly at night on Friday. The LME zinc fluctuated horizontally and converged, closing at 3293.5 dollars/ton, a weekly decline of 0.89% [5]. - In the spot market, as of March 13th, the mainstream transaction price of Shanghai 0 zinc was concentrated between 24,065 - 24,190 yuan/ton, with a discount of 100 - 90 yuan/ton to the 2604 contract. The mainstream brands of 0 zinc in the Ningbo market were traded at about 24,075 - 24,170 yuan/ton, with a discount of 100 yuan/ton to the 2604 contract and a premium of 20 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot. The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc in Guangdong was between 23,995 - 24,140 yuan/ton, with a discount of 100 - 60 yuan/ton to the 2604 contract and a premium of 40 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot. The price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong widened. The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc ingots in the Tianjin market was between 24,070 - 24,220 yuan/ton, with a discount of 20 - 100 yuan/ton to the 2604 contract, and Tianjin market reported a premium of 10 yuan/ton compared with the Shanghai market. Overall, the market supply was abundant, downstream purchases were few, the spot transaction did not improve, and the spot quotation remained at a discount [5]. - As of March 13th, the LME zinc ingot inventory was 97,900 tons, a weekly increase of 2,925 tons. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 147,348 tons, an increase of 12,427 tons. As of March 12th, the social inventory was 268,800 tons, an increase of 6,600 tons compared with Monday and an increase of 12,500 tons compared with last Thursday [6]. 3. Industry News - On March 13, 2026, the processing fee for domestic zinc concentrates was 1,550 yuan/metal ton, remaining flat compared with the previous period; the processing fee for imported ore was 11.25 dollars/dry ton, a decrease of 4.13 dollars/dry ton compared with the previous period [11]. - The beneficiation plant of Zhugongtang Lead - Zinc Mine of Hezhang Dingshengxin Mining Development Co., Ltd. is planned to enter trial production in July this year, marking a key step towards large - scale and standardized production of this super - large lead - zinc mine project [11]. - Nexa's zinc concentrate production in the fourth quarter of 2025 totaled 91,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9% and a year - on - year increase of 24%. The total zinc concentrate production in 2025 was 315,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3% [11]. - Volcan's zinc concentrate metal production in the fourth quarter of 2025 totaled 59,500 tons, and the total zinc concentrate production in 2025 was 235,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.3% [11]. - Kaz Mineral's zinc concentrate metal volume in the fourth quarter of 2025 was 19,500 tons, and the total zinc concentrate metal volume in 2025 was 53,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 26% [12]. - Buenaventura's zinc production in the fourth quarter of 2025 was 8,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 43%. The total zinc concentrate production in 2025 was 29,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2% [12] 4. Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the price trend charts of Shanghai zinc and LME zinc, the internal and external price ratio, spot premium and discount, LME premium and discount, inventory data of each market, zinc ore processing fees, domestic refined zinc production, smelter profits, refined zinc net imports, and downstream enterprise start - up rates [14][15][16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The zinc market is rated as neutral to weak, with unexpected inventory accumulation in China and a slow recovery in downstream consumption [2][3][5] - In the short - term, the fundamentals are under pressure, and the inventory inflection point has not appeared. In the long - term, supply - side contradictions will continue to dominate prices, with the TC operation center expected to decline and the zinc price operation center expected to rise [5] - If the tense situation in the Middle East persists, the possibility of the market shifting to recession trading increases, and risks in the non - ferrous sector are brewing. Attention should be paid to medium - term internal and external positive arbitrage opportunities [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Price**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract last week was 24,140 yuan, with a weekly decline of 0.49%. The closing price of LmeS - zinc3 was 3,293.5 US dollars, with a weekly decline of 0.89% [6] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract last Friday was 85,941 lots, a decrease of 47,394 lots compared with the previous week. The open interest was 75,191 lots, a decrease of 10,125 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - zinc3 was 9,416 lots, a decrease of 6,833 lots, and the open interest was 216,509 lots, a decrease of 2,689 lots [6] - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc warrant inventory increased by 9,643 tons to 86,093 tons, and the total SHFE zinc inventory increased by 12,427 tons to 147,348 tons. Social inventory increased by 12,500 tons to 268,800 tons. LME zinc inventory increased by 2,925 tons to 97,900 tons, and the bonded area inventory remained unchanged at 3,300 tons [6] 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished product inventories are at a high level, and zinc ingot inventory continues to increase [9] - **Profit**: Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, while smelting profits are at a historical low. Zinc ore enterprise profits are stable and at a historical high, smelting profits are stable and at a historical low, and galvanized pipe enterprise profits are rising but at a low level compared with the same period [11][12] - **Capacity Utilization**: Zinc concentrate and refined zinc capacity utilization rates have declined and are at a low level compared with the same period in history. Downstream galvanizing, die - casting zinc, and zinc oxide capacity utilization rates have increased but are at a medium - low level [13][14] 3.3 Trading Aspects - **Spot**: Spot premiums have declined. Overseas premiums are differentiated, with the Singapore premium remaining flat, the Antwerp premium rising, and the LME CASH - 3M declining [17][19] - **Spread**: The contango structure of SHFE zinc has widened [21] - **Inventory**: There has been a significant inventory accumulation this week, and the ratio of open interest to inventory has decreased. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore, with a slight increase in total inventory. The注销仓单 ratio has decreased and returned to a historical low level. Bonded area inventory remained unchanged this week, and global visible zinc inventory has increased significantly [24][30][32] - **Futures**: The domestic open interest is at a medium - low level compared with the same period in history [33] 3.4 Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports have rebounded significantly, domestic zinc ore production is at a high level compared with the same period, import ore processing fees have decreased this week, and domestic ore processing fees have remained stable. Ore arrival volume is at a medium level, and smelter raw material inventory has rebounded from a low level [36][37] - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting output has declined and is at a medium level compared with the same period in history. Smelter finished product inventory has increased and is at a high level compared with the same period in history. Zinc alloy output is at a medium level [38] - **Imports and Exports**: Refined zinc import volume and export volume data are provided, and refined zinc import profits and losses are also presented [40] - **Recycled Zinc Raw Materials**: Data on the capacity utilization rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills, the average price of galvanized pipe slag, the average price of secondary zinc oxide, and the daily consumption of scrap steel by steel mills are provided [42] 3.5 Demand - **Refined Zinc Consumption**: The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive [46] - **Downstream Capacity Utilization**: The monthly capacity utilization rate of downstream industries has declined slightly and is mostly at a low level compared with the same period in history [50] - **Downstream Raw Material and Finished Product Inventories**: Data on downstream raw material and finished product inventories are provided [52][55] - **Terminal Demand**: The real estate market is still at a low level, and the power grid shows structural increments [61] 3.6 Overseas Factors - Data on European natural gas futures prices, EU carbon quota prices, European electricity prices, and zinc smelter profits and losses in European countries are provided [63][64][66]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report anticipates that the Shanghai zinc futures will undergo a bullish adjustment, suggesting attention to the support level at 23000 yuan/ton, with potential upside targets between 23600 - 24000 yuan/ton [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai zinc futures rose this week, with a weekly increase of 0.45% and an amplitude of 2.03%. The closing price of the main contract was 23275 yuan/ton [4] - **Market Outlook**: Macroscopically, most Fed officials expect further rate cuts after December, and 62.5 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds for consumer goods replacement have been pre - allocated. Fundamentally, zinc ore imports have declined, domestic smelters' winter raw material reserves have started, and processing fees have dropped, squeezing smelter profits and potentially reducing production. The export window may close again. On the demand side, the downstream market is entering the off - season, but there are some bright spots in the automotive sector. Domestic inventories continue to decline while LME inventory accumulation is slowing [4] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price Changes**: As of December 31, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai zinc futures was 23275 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton (0.19%) from December 24. As of December 30, 2025, the closing price of LME zinc was 3130 US dollars/ton, up 57.5 US dollars/ton (1.87%) from December 22 [9] - **Net Positions and Open Interest**: As of December 31, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc futures was 5416 lots, a decrease of 3131 lots from December 24. The open interest was 195442 lots, a decrease of 6438 lots (3.19%) from December 24 [11] - **Price Spreads**: As of December 31, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures price spread was 350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 550 yuan/ton from December 24. The lead - zinc futures price spread was 5920 yuan/ton, a decrease of 85 yuan/ton from December 24 [16] - **Spot Premiums**: As of December 31, 2025, the spot price of 0 zinc ingot was 23360 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton (0.3%) from December 24. The spot premium was 115 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from last week. As of December 30, 2025, the LME zinc near - month to 3 - month spread was - 32.22 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.61 US dollars/ton from December 19 [22] - **Inventory Changes**: As of December 30, 2025, the LME refined zinc inventory was 106325 tons, an increase of 6425 tons (6.43%) from December 19. As of December 31, 2025, the SHFE refined zinc inventory was 69793 tons, a decrease of 3170 tons (4.34%) from last week. As of December 29, 2025, the domestic refined zinc social inventory was 105500 tons, a decrease of 13700 tons (11.49%) from December 22 [25] 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream - Zinc Ore**: In October 2025, the global zinc ore output was 1.1009 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.21% and a year - on - year increase of 4.87%. In November 2025, the import of zinc ore concentrates was 519018.96 tons, a month - on - month increase of 52.31% and a year - on - year increase of 14.06% [31] - **Supply - Global Refined Zinc**: In October 2025, the global refined zinc output was 1.2187 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 108400 tons (9.76%); the consumption was 1.2193 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 44200 tons (3.76%); the supply gap was 600 tons, compared with a gap of 64800 tons in the same period last year. The WBMS report showed a supply - demand balance of - 35700 tons in September 2024 [36][37] - **Supply - Refined Zinc Output**: In November 2025, the domestic zinc output was 654000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.3%. From January to November, the cumulative zinc output was 6.842 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.5% [40] - **Supply - Refined Zinc Exports**: In November 2025, the import of refined zinc was 18229.93 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 48.15%; the export was 42815.55 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8748.45% [43] - **Downstream - Galvanized Sheets**: From January to November 2025, the inventory of galvanized sheets of major domestic enterprises was 942600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.06%. In November 2025, the import of galvanized sheets was 36700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.91%; the export was 317900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11% [46][47] - **Downstream - Real Estate**: From January to November 2025, the new housing construction area was 534.567 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.58%; the housing completion area was 394.5393 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.58%. The funds available to real estate development enterprises were 851.4519 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.9%, among which personal mortgage loans were 117.86 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.1% [52][53] - **Downstream - Infrastructure Investment**: From January to November 2025, infrastructure investment increased by 0.13% year - on - year. In November 2025, the real estate development climate index was 91.9, a decrease of 0.52 from last month and 0.61 from the same period last year [58][59] - **Downstream - Home Appliances**: In November 2025, the refrigerator output was 9.442 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. From January to November, the cumulative refrigerator output was 99.342 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. The air - conditioner output in November was 15.026 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 23.4%. From January to November, the cumulative air - conditioner output was 245.361 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.6% [61] - **Downstream - Automobiles**: In November 2025, the sales volume of Chinese automobiles was 3428998 units, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%; the output was 3531579 units, a year - on - year increase of 2.76% [66]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc futures rebounded. Macroeconomically, recent US employment and inflation data support the Fed's interest rate cut, and Trump's remarks on the next Fed Chairman candidate are also favorable for the future interest rate cut path. The US dollar is weak, which is beneficial to the price trend of risk assets. Domestically, as the Politburo meeting approaches, policy expectations are rising, market sentiment is positive, copper and tin prices are constantly hitting new highs, and zinc prices are following the rebound. Fundamentally, the supply contraction is prominent. In December, the processing fees for domestic and foreign zinc mines have accelerated their decline. The average processing fee for domestic mines has dropped to 2,000 yuan/metal ton, basically returning to the level at the beginning of the year. The profit space of smelters has been continuously compressed, and the phenomenon of production cuts and suspensions in the industry has increased. SMM data shows that the domestic refined zinc production in November was lower than expected, falling below 600,000 tons. It is expected that the production in December will decrease by 24,000 tons month-on-month, and the previous high supply pressure has been significantly relieved. At the same time, the spot premiums at home and abroad have strengthened, which also helps the futures price to run strongly. However, the consumption side is still in the traditional off-season, and the demand side has not formed an effective match. The operating rates of primary enterprises remain mediocre. Affected by the year-end rush to work and the completion of annual sales targets of some enterprises, the operating rate of galvanizing enterprises has slightly increased; the rising zinc price has suppressed enterprise production, and the operating rate of die-casting zinc alloy enterprises has slightly decreased; the finished product inventory pressure of all-steel tire factories has increased, and some ceramic factories have cut or suspended production, so the operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises has slightly decreased. The terminal consumption increment is limited, and the downstream enterprises' fear of high prices has increased, and their purchasing behavior has become more cautious. [3][10] - Overall, as the Fed's December interest rate meeting and domestic important meetings approach, the market risk preference is expected to remain warm. At the same time, the supply reduction boosts, and the zinc price may continue to run strongly following the non-ferrous metal sector. However, attention should also be paid to the strengthening of the negative feedback effect on the consumption side after the continuous rebound of the zinc price, which will disrupt the rebound rhythm and space. Temporarily pay attention to the pressure near the 40-month moving average above. [4][11] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | November 28 | December 5 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Zinc | 22,425 | 23,305 | 880 | Yuan/ton | | LME Zinc | 3,051 | 3,098.5 | 47.5 | US dollars/ton | | Shanghai-London Ratio | 7.35 | 7.52 | 0.17 | | | SHFE Inventory | 95,916 | 91,916 | -4,000 | Tons | | LME Inventory | 51,750 | 55,375 | 3,625 | Tons | | Social Inventory | 148,000 | 140,300 | -7,700 | Tons | | Spot Premium | 50 | 70 | 20 | Yuan/ton | [5] 3.2 Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract ZN2601 of Shanghai zinc futures showed a rebound trend. After breaking through the pressure level of 23,000 yuan/ton, the upward momentum slowed down slightly, and finally closed at 22,305 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.92%. On Friday night, it opened lower and fluctuated narrowly. The center of gravity of LME zinc moved up, hitting a new high of the year at 3,125 US dollars/ton, and finally closed at 3,098.5 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.56%. [6] - In the spot market, as of December 5, the mainstream transaction price of Shanghai 0 zinc was concentrated between 23,165 and 23,375 yuan/ton, with a premium of 200 - 220 yuan/ton to the 2601 contract. In the Ningbo market, the transaction price of the mainstream brand 0 zinc was around 23,155 - 23,335 yuan/ton, with a premium of 175 yuan/ton to the 2601 contract and a premium of 100 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot price. In the Guangdong market, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was between 22,945 and 23,095 yuan/ton, with a discount of 45 yuan/ton to the 2601 contract, and the price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong widened. In the Tianjin market, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc ingots was between 22,930 and 23,170 yuan/ton. The ordinary 0 zinc was quoted at a discount of 40 to a premium of 10 yuan/ton to the 2601 contract, and the Tianjin market was at a discount of about 130 yuan/ton to the Shanghai market, and the price difference between Shanghai and Tianjin continued to widen. Generally speaking, affected by the smelter maintenance, the improvement of the tight supply in the market was limited. Traders raised the spot premium quotes, but the downstream's fear of high prices increased, and their purchasing preference was for the low-priced factory-picked goods. The spot transactions were mainly between traders. [7] - In terms of inventory, as of December 5, the LME zinc ingot inventory was 55,375 tons, an increase of 3,625 tons week-on-week. The SHFE inventory was 91,916 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons compared with last week. As of December 4, the social inventory was 140,300 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons compared with Monday and a decrease of 7,700 tons compared with last Thursday. Among them, due to the production cuts of smelters, the arrivals in Guangdong decreased. Coupled with the stable downstream demand and the terminal's rigid demand for replenishment, and the large price difference between South China and East China, some South China goods flowed into East China, resulting in a significant reduction in the inventory in Guangdong, while the inventory in Tianjin changed little. [8] - Macroeconomically, the US ISM manufacturing PMI index in November decreased by 0.5 points to 48.2, remaining below the boom-bust line of 50 for nine consecutive months, hitting the largest contraction in four months. The new orders index dropped to the fastest contraction speed since July. The ISM services PMI index rose to 52.6, a nine-month high, with an expected value of 52.1. The ADP employment data showed that private enterprises in the US reduced 32,000 jobs in November, the largest decline since March 2023, far lower than the market expectation of an increase of 10,000. The data released by the US Department of Labor on Thursday showed that as of the week ending November 29 (including the Thanksgiving holiday), the number of initial jobless claims decreased by 27,000 to 191,000, significantly lower than the market expectation of 220,000 and the previous value of 216,000. The number of continued jobless claims decreased slightly by 4,000 to 1.939 million. However, this indicator has remained at a high level in recent years, indicating that it is more difficult for the unemployed to find new jobs. The US PCE price index in September recorded a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, and the year-on-year increase rose slightly from 2.7% in August to 2.8%; the core PCE annual rate after excluding the volatile food and energy prices dropped from 2.9% in August to 2.8%. [8][9] 3.3 Industry News - SMM data shows that as of the week ending December 5, the processing fee for domestic zinc concentrates decreased by 200 yuan/metal ton month-on-month to 1,850 yuan/metal ton, and the processing fee for imported zinc concentrates decreased by 3.5 US dollars/dry ton month-on-month to 57.75 US dollars/dry ton. [12] - According to foreign media on November 26, the national mining group (SONAREM) of a certain country held a coordination meeting, emphasizing that the Bejaia zinc-lead mine project must start production as planned, with a planned annual output of 170,000 tons of zinc concentrates and 30,000 tons of lead concentrates. [12] - SMM reported that the refined zinc production in November was 595,200 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.56% and a year-on-year increase of 16.75%. The cumulative production from January to November was 6.281 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.69%, lower than the expected value. It is expected that the domestic refined zinc production in December will be 570,900 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 24,300 tons or 4.08% and a year-on-year increase of 10.49%. The cumulative annual production will be 6.852 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.67%. [12] 3.4 Related Charts The report provides 14 charts, including the price trend charts of Shanghai zinc and LME zinc, the internal and external price ratio chart, the spot premium and discount chart, the LME premium and discount chart, the inventory charts of SHFE, LME, social, and bonded areas, the domestic and foreign zinc mine processing fee chart, the zinc mine import profit and loss chart, the domestic refined zinc production chart, the smelter profit chart, the refined zinc net import chart, and the downstream primary enterprise operating rate chart. [13][15][17][20][22][25]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, there is an expectation of tight supply at the mine end. Overseas mine supply growth is slowing, and domestic mines are affected by depletion. The Huoshaoyun Mine may not contribute significantly to the market due to poor market utilization. TC is unlikely to rise, and the Benchmark may remain below $100/ton, failing to stimulate overseas smelting growth. In China, smelters are also facing comprehensive cost losses. Therefore, with the expected tight supply at the mine end in 2026, the pressure on smelting supply is expected to weaken significantly. - At the beginning of the 14th Five-Year Plan and during the overseas interest rate cut cycle, there are positive expectations for the consumer end. Even if the production of the Huoshaoyun Mine is realized smoothly, the supply and demand will remain balanced in 2026, but there is still a possibility of the invisibility of visible inventory, resulting in a downward trend in social inventory. If the Huoshaoyun Mine fails to be put into production as expected, the supply and demand will be tight. - The report is not pessimistic about the zinc price in 2026 [5]. Summary by Directory I. Zinc Ore - **1.1 Overseas mines are growing as expected, but the supply pressure will significantly decline in 2026** - In Q3 2025, overseas mine production was 1.3 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 126,000 tons; the cumulative production of the sample from January to September was 3.755 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 326,000 tons. The increase mainly comes from new and复产 projects as expected. Kipushi has复产 as scheduled, with improved grade and recovery rate, and its production is expected to increase further. Its production is expected to increase by 60,000 tons year-on-year in 2026. Antamina is one of the main mines contributing to the increase overseas this year, with a year-on-year increase of 172,000 tons in zinc concentrate production from January to September. However, it will shift to copper production from 2026 - 2028, and its production is expected to be lower than in 2025, with a year-on-year decline of 150,000 tons in 2026. The复产 of the Tera Mine is slower than expected, with a production of 60,000 tons in the first three quarters. It is expected to contribute an incremental output of 10,000 - 20,000 tons in 2026. Gamsberg's production has increased significantly due to improved capacity utilization and a higher proportion of high-grade ore, and it is expected to contribute an incremental output of 50,000 tons in the second half of 2026. Grupo Mexico's production has increased due to improved mine grade, but its incremental output in 2026 is expected to be less than 10,000 tons. The OZ Mine is expected to contribute an incremental output of 100,000 tons in 2026. The Red Dog Mine's production has declined due to grade decline, and it is expected to continue to decline by 80,000 - 100,000 tons year-on-year in 2026 [11][12][13]. - It is estimated that the overseas zinc concentrate production will be 8.29 million tons in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 420,000 tons, and is expected to contribute an incremental output of 90,000 tons in 2026 [6]. - For domestic mines, from January to October, the domestic zinc ore production was 3.058 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 56,000 tons. Due to factors such as depletion of existing domestic mines, the production of old mines in the sample is showing a downward trend. The Huoshaoyun Mine has great uncertainties, and its impact on the market needs to be further observed. In 2025, without considering the Huoshaoyun Mine, the new and复产 capacities will contribute 50,000 tons, but considering the decline in the production of sample mines, the domestic ore supply will increase slightly by 30,000 tons year-on-year. In 2026, the new and复产 projects are expected to contribute an output of about 60,000 tons, and with the use of a small amount of ore sold by the Huoshaoyun Mine for blending, the domestic ore supply is expected to increase by 100,000 tons (excluding the contribution of the Huoshaoyun Mine's self - smelting into zinc ingots). At the same time, attention should be paid to the production decline of old sample mines due to depletion problems [14][15][16]. - From January to October, the import of zinc ore was 4.349 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 36.6%. Since June, zinc ore imports have been facing continuous losses, and the year-on-year growth rate of monthly zinc ore imports has dropped rapidly [16]. II. Refined Zinc - **2.1 High profit pressure at home and abroad, and the supply pressure will be alleviated quarter-on-quarter** - In China, the supply pressure began to appear in the second half of the year. From June, the daily average output increased significantly month-on-month, and from July, the year-on-year growth rate of monthly output exceeded 20%. The social inventory of zinc ingots began to accumulate rapidly from July, and the domestic spot market quickly changed from a premium structure to a discount structure under high supply pressure. In terms of absolute price, after the price dropped rapidly from a high of over 25,000 yuan/ton to 22,000 yuan/ton in the first half of the year due to supply pressure, in the second half of the year, after the supply pressure was realized, the absolute price fluctuated in the range of 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton, mainly supported by the macro - environment. Compared with copper and aluminum prices, the relative price of zinc is still declining [29]. - From January to October, the cumulative output of zinc ingots was 5.686 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 10.1%. It is estimated that the annual output will be 5.9 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 11.5%. From January to October, China's cumulative import of refined zinc was 277,000 tons, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 26.6%. In 2025, China's long - term import order of zinc ingots was about 15,000 - 20,000 tons per month. The import window closed in May, and the pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets continued, with the import loss expanding. The export window opened in October. It is expected that China's long - term import order of zinc ingots will significantly decrease in 2026 and may even approach zero, and the export window may open periodically, and China will become a net exporter of zinc ingots, which will effectively relieve the domestic supply pressure [29][30][31]. - Since September, the domestic mine TC has started to decline, and since October, the imported mine TC has also declined synchronously. The smelting losses of domestic smelters have expanded, from a minimum loss of 100 yuan/ton to a loss of 1,300 yuan/ton. Even with the continuous increase in the sulfuric acid price, the industry is currently at the break - even point, and high - cost areas are facing comprehensive cost losses. The daily average output of the supply side has dropped from a high of 20,200 tons to 19,900 tons. Although the overseas mine production is increasing as expected, the TC is showing a downward trend. From the perspective of mine supply, although the supply will still grow in 2026, the worst - expected period has ended. Therefore, considering the smelting profit, the current supply pressure still exists, but it is expected to be alleviated quarter - on - quarter [30][31]. - Overseas supply problems may still not be resolved. It is predicted that the overseas zinc ingot output will be 6.836 million tons in 2025, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 1.4%. The European region has contributed to the continuous decline, which is inevitably related to the power cost problem. Since the European energy crisis, the power cost has not returned to the pre - crisis level and is even higher than the domestic electricity price. In addition, regions such as Australia and the United States are also facing power cost problems. If the 2026 zinc ore Benchmark pricing does not improve significantly compared to this year, in the long run, the overseas supply side will not put pressure on the zinc price, and more attention should be paid to the sustainability of consumption [32]. - **2.2 The social inventory accumulation is lower than expected** - In the first half of the year, strong domestic demand and export - driven consumption, combined with the fact that the supply side had not yet released pressure, led to lower - than - expected inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival and inventory depletion to a historical low during the peak season. In the second half of the year, after the supply expectations were realized, the social inventory was originally expected to accumulate to 200,000 tons, but in fact, due to the unexpected growth of domestic demand and the overseas warehouse receipt risk, the export window opened. Since October, although the social inventory is at a historical high for the same period, it has shown a seasonal downward trend. The highest point of the social inventory this year was only 160,000 tons. The reasons for the lower - than - expected inventory accumulation include: consumption structural reform, which made us underestimate the actual consumption as the decline of traditional real estate and infrastructure offset by new consumption; the expansion of the alloying scale of intermediate processed products, resulting in the invisibility of visible inventory; the opening of the export window, which enabled traders and smelters to open up overseas sales channels. If the domestic supply side is compressed due to cost problems in the future, the inventory depletion rhythm is expected to accelerate, which will be a positive factor for the zinc price [53][54][56]. - The LME inventory has dropped from 230,000 tons at the beginning of the year to a minimum of 35,000 tons, and there has been a warehouse receipt risk with a rapid increase in the spot premium. Although there has been a slight increase subsequently, the absolute inventory level is still low, and the warehouse receipt risk has not been resolved. On the one hand, there has been an unexpected production cut on the overseas supply side, and on the other hand, consumption has been strong, and overseas tariff trade wars have not affected the actual consumption [56]. III. Downstream Consumption - **3.1 Export drives galvanized consumption** - From January to October, China's cumulative net export of galvanized strips was 11.101 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 12.4%. The cumulative growth rate of excavator sales reached 17%, which is not in line with the growth rate of China's real estate and infrastructure, and is more due to the infrastructure demand in third - world countries driven by China's development. Therefore, in 2026, exports are expected to maintain a high - growth contribution to commodity consumption and may continue for many years. Considering the export of galvanized strips, angle steels, and automobile tires, it is estimated that exports will drive zinc consumption to increase by 120,000 tons in 2026 [64]. - **3.3 New energy power drives consumption growth** - From January to September, China's photovoltaic installed capacity was 240.4GW, a year-on-year increase of 49.4%. Affected by the policy, the installed capacity was pre - consumed, and the annual installed capacity is expected to be 280 - 290GW, with the year-on-year growth rate dropping to 3 - 5%. In 2026, the preliminary expected installed capacity is about 250GW, a year-on-year decrease of about 10%. Considering the increase in the proportion of centralized photovoltaics driving the demand for galvanizing, it is estimated that the zinc consumption in the photovoltaic sector will be 380,000 tons in 2026, a year-on-year decrease of 40,000 tons. - At the beginning of the 14th Five - Year Plan, there are clear goals for the power grid and new energy power. It is estimated that the cumulative incremental installed capacity in five years can reach 600GW, with an average annual incremental installed capacity of 120GW, and there is a possibility of accelerating the completion at the beginning. From January to October, China's wind power installed capacity was 70GW, and the annual installed capacity is expected to be 104GW, corresponding to a zinc consumption of 310,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 70,000 tons. In 2026, the expected installed capacity is 120GW, corresponding to a zinc consumption of 360,000 tons, contributing an incremental output of 50,000 tons. - From January to October, China's cumulative investment in power grid construction was 437.8 billion yuan, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 9.9%. In 2026, as the starting year of the 14th Five - Year Plan, UHV projects such as "Xinjiang Power to Sichuan" and "Gansu Power to Zhejiang" will be promoted, and rural power grid upgrading and transformation will be carried out. It is estimated that the average annual compound growth rate of the 14th Five - Year Plan power grid can reach 8%, and there is a possibility of accelerating in the first two years. It is estimated that the power grid towers, transformers, etc. will drive zinc consumption by 50,000 tons [67][68]. - **3.4 Halving of domestic purchase tax, and the growth of automobile output depends on exports** - From January to October, China's cumulative automobile production was 27.692 million vehicles, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 13.2%, among which the cumulative year-on-year increase in new energy vehicle production was 33.1%, and the cumulative year-on-year decrease in traditional vehicle production was 0.1%. The comprehensive data is much better than the initial expectations. It is estimated that the annual cumulative automobile production will be 33.5 million vehicles, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 10.3% (3.22 million vehicles). - In terms of exports, from January to October, China's cumulative automobile export volume was 5.615 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 15.7%. According to this data, the annual export is estimated to contribute an incremental output of 1.1 million vehicles. According to customs data, China's cumulative automobile exports (including chassis) were 6.51 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 23.3%. According to this data, the annual export is estimated to contribute an incremental output of 1.8 million vehicles. Although this includes second - hand car exports, it can also be seen that automobile exports have made a significant contribution to China's automobile production. In 2026, although the halving of the domestic automobile purchase tax may put pressure on automobile production, under the optimistic export expectations, it is estimated that the automobile production in 2026 can reach 37.2 million vehicles, with a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 7.8%, corresponding to an increase in zinc consumption of 60,000 - 70,000 tons [73]. - **3.5 Domestic consumption structural reform** - From January to October, China's cumulative infrastructure investment increased by only 1.5% year-on-year, the cumulative year-on-year decline in new real estate construction was 19.8%, the cumulative year-on-year decline in real estate construction was 9.4%, and the cumulative year-on-year decline in real estate completion was 16.9%. The traditional consumption sector has dragged down consumption. However, structural reform brings new hope. In addition to the automobile and power investment sectors mentioned above, attention should also be paid to the investment growth rate of water transportation, which was 9.4% from January to October. - From January to October, China's cumulative air - conditioner production increased by 3% year-on-year, the cumulative year-on-year decline in color TV production was 2.3%, the cumulative year-on-year increase in household refrigerator production was 0.9%, and the cumulative year-on-year increase in household washing machine production was 6.4%. The performance of the home appliance sector was mediocre [81]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2025, the actual apparent consumption growth rate is estimated to reach 7.1%, and there is a phenomenon of the invisibility of visible inventory into finished product inventories such as zinc alloys, which also indicates that zinc alloy enterprises are expanding production due to consumption growth. After the decline in the absolute price, it is estimated that downstream enterprises will shift from active inventory depletion to active inventory replenishment, and the actual consumption growth rate can reach 4.3%. - For 2026, the actual consumption growth rate is estimated to reach 2.8%, and there is a possibility that the apparent consumption growth rate will be greater than the actual due to continuous inventory replenishment by downstream enterprises. Regarding the supply side's attitude towards the Huoshaoyun Mine, without considering its production contribution, the smelting supply growth rate is expected to be 1.7%, and there will be a domestic supply shortage of 150,000 tons. Even if an optimistic expectation is given to the Huoshaoyun Mine, contributing an incremental output of

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that China's zinc ore and concentrate imports in October amounted to 340,863 tons, representing a month-on-month decrease of 32.48% but a year-on-year increase of 3.19% [1] - Peru's shipment volume increased significantly by 35% to 95,700 tons, reclaiming the top position in supply, while Australia's supply dropped sharply by 60%, falling below 50,000 tons [1] - The price disparity between domestic and international markets has worsened, leading to sustained losses in imported zinc concentrates, which has resulted in a decreased willingness of domestic smelters to purchase imported ores [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zinc prices are under pressure from above and supported from below, with no clear direction. The short - term is expected to maintain range consolidation. Unilateral strategies should focus on high - selling and low - buying, and arbitrage strategies can consider going long on the Shanghai - London ratio [3][65][66]. - The tight pattern of the zinc ore end is expected to continue until the first quarter of next year. The TC has changed from rising to falling, and the industrial chain profit has shifted from the smelter end to the ore end again. The inventory trends at home and abroad are diverging [2][62][63]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Total Overview - In August 2025, the global zinc market supply surplus expanded to 47,900 tons. From January to August 2025, the global refined zinc supply surplus was 154,000 tons. From July to August 2025, the global zinc concentrate cumulative output was 2.1712 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.57%. From January to August 2025, the global refined zinc output was 9.1482 million tons, basically the same as the cumulative output of last year [11]. - The statistical sample of this report shows that the zinc concentrate output in the third quarter of 2025 was 1.4424 million tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 0.95% and a year - on - year increase of 8.20%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 4.254 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.31% [11]. 3.2 Glencore - In 2025, Glencore's zinc concentrate production guidance was adjusted to 94 - 980,000 tons. In the third quarter, the zinc concentrate output was 244,200 tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 2.94% and a year - on - year increase of 7.86%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 709,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10.22% [19]. 3.3 Teck - In 2025, Teck's zinc concentrate production guidance was 525,000 - 575,000 tons. In the third quarter, the zinc concentrate output was 150,500 tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 10.68% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.59%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 456,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 2.81% [24]. 3.4 Boliden - In the third quarter of 2025, Boliden's zinc concentrate output was 108,000 tons, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 5.08% and a year - on - year increase of 17.75%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 317,600 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 21.12% [27]. 3.5 Vedanta - In the third quarter of 2025, Vedanta's zinc concentrate output was 262,000 tons, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 1.16% and a year - on - year increase of 8.26%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 785,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.65% [32]. 3.6 Nexa - In 2025, Nexa's zinc concentrate production guidance was 300,000 - 336,000 tons. In the third quarter, the zinc concentrate output was 83,700 tons, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 13.88% and a year - on - year increase of 1.21%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 224,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 11.05% [37]. 3.7 MMG - In 2025, MMG's zinc concentrate production guidance was 215,000 - 240,000 tons. In the third quarter, the zinc concentrate output was 58,700 tons, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 4.58% and a year - on - year increase of 26.49%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 166,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.85% [44]. 3.8 Newmont Goldcorp - In 2025, Newmont's zinc concentrate production guidance was 236,000 tons. In the third quarter, the zinc concentrate output was 59,000 tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 11.52% and a year - on - year increase of 2.42%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 184,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.30% [47][48]. 3.9 BHP - In the 2025 fiscal year, BHP's zinc concentrate production guidance was 90,000 - 110,000 tons. In the third quarter, the zinc concentrate output was 36,000 tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 10.95% and a year - on - year increase of 85.77%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 102,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 91.03% [49]. 3.10 South32 - In the 2026 fiscal year, South32's zinc concentrate production guidance was 40,000 tons, a decrease compared with the 2025 fiscal year. In the third quarter of 2025, the zinc concentrate output was 8,300 tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 21.70% and a year - on - year decrease of 31.40%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 29,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 31.74% [50][51]. 3.11 Grupo Mexico - SCC - In 2025, SCC's zinc concentrate production guidance was 174,700 tons, a slight increase compared with the previous period. In the third quarter, the zinc concentrate output was 45,500 tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 0.89% and a year - on - year increase of 46.42%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 130,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 50.55% [52]. 3.12 Industrials Pelones - In the third quarter of 2025, Pelones' zinc concentrate output was 63,200 tons, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 5.02% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.33%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 181,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 13.68% [54]. 3.13 Fresnillo plc - In 2025, Fresnillo plc's zinc concentrate production guidance was 93,000 - 103,000 tons. In the third quarter, the zinc concentrate output was 24,700 tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 12.91% and a year - on - year decrease of 23.41%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 78,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 10.61% [57]. 3.14 Market Outlook - The tight pattern of the ore end is expected to continue until the first quarter of next year. The TC has changed from rising to falling, and the industrial chain profit has shifted from the smelter end to the ore end again. The domestic and foreign inventory trends are diverging. Zinc prices are under pressure from above and supported from below, with no clear direction [62][63][65].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a zinc special report dated November 10, 2025, focusing on the Q3 financial reports of overseas zinc mines [4][8][12] Group 2: Overseas Mine Production Overseas Part - Mine Output Aggregation - The report provides a detailed table of the production of overseas mining enterprises from 2021Q1 to 2025Q3, including Vedanta, Glencore, TECK, etc. The total production shows fluctuations over different quarters and years, with varying year - on - year growth rates [16] Global Zinc Concentrate Annual Output - The annual output and year - on - year growth rate of global zinc concentrate from 2017 to 2025E are presented. The output in 2025E is expected to be 1262.05 million tons, with a year - on - year growth of 5.90% [70] Zinc Concentrate Production Change Forecast - In 2025, overseas mines are expected to have a net increase of 59.49 million tons in production, with new mines, production increases, restarts, and some mines reducing production or shutting down. Domestic mines are expected to have a new production increase of 10.80 million tons, with a total global net increase of 70.29 million tons [73] - Forecasts for production changes from 2026 - 2030 are also provided, with a total net increase of 23.27 million tons in 2026, 5.60 million tons in 2027, 12.10 million tons in 2028, 6.30 million tons in 2029, and 0.70 million tons in 2030 [75]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic zinc fundamentals have not changed significantly recently. Although the zinc concentrate processing fee has been adjusted down, smelters are still profitable, and the supply of refined zinc continues to increase. The overseas inventory has slightly increased but remains at a relatively low level. Coupled with the impact of the capital side, the LME zinc price is strong. The pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets has further intensified, and the export profit has further widened. The zinc price in Shanghai is likely to rise rather than fall, and one can try to go long at low prices. [4] - The traditional peak season for zinc consumption is coming to an end, and domestic zinc consumption is expected to gradually weaken. However, attention should still be paid to the boosting effect of domestic policies on consumption. [4] - The export window has opened, and some domestic zinc ingots have been delivered to warehouses in Southeast Asia. The export volume and frequency need to be monitored. If there is a large - scale delivery overseas, one should stop profit in time for the previous operation of shorting SHFE and going long LME, and change the strategy to go long SHFE and short LME in advance. [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Trading Logic - In the mining end, domestic smelters have been continuously snapping up domestic zinc concentrates, leading to a continuous decline in domestic zinc concentrate processing fees. Imported ore is still at a loss, but due to the continuous decline in domestic zinc concentrate processing fees, imported zinc concentrate traders have also reduced their quotes. [4] - At the smelting end, the recent decline in zinc prices and domestic TC has narrowed smelting profits. However, the by - product revenue is still considerable, and smelters' profits are still around 1,000 yuan/ton, with the smelting start - up rate remaining high. In October, although some domestic smelters carried out maintenance, some previously - maintained smelters resumed production, and the overall domestic refined zinc output may increase significantly. [4] - In terms of consumption, the traditional peak season for zinc consumption is passing, and domestic zinc consumption is expected to gradually weaken. [4] - Inventory data shows that as of October 23, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 162,100 tons, a decrease of 3,200 tons compared with October 20 and a decrease of 600 tons compared with October 16. The LME zinc inventory on October 23 was 37,600 tons, an increase of 275 tons compared with October 17. [4] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: One can try to go long on zinc in Shanghai at low prices. [4] - Arbitrage: One can pre - arrange the operation of going long SHFE and shorting LME according to the export situation. [4] Chapter 2: Market Data - No specific data analysis content provided in the given text, only some market data indicators such as spot premium, absolute price and monthly spread, trading volume and open interest of Shanghai zinc, social inventory, etc. are listed. [6][12][15] Chapter 3: Fundamental Data Zinc Ore Supply - Global zinc concentrate production from January to August 2025 was 8.2907 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 593,700 tons or 7.71%. In July, global zinc concentrate production was 1.0976 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 127,500 tons or 13.14%. [28] - In September 2025, SMM's domestic zinc concentrate production was 314,500 metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.79% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.99%. In October, it is expected to be 300,900 metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.32%. [28] - As of September, domestic smelter raw material inventory increased by 10.63 days to 26.3 days compared with the same period last year. Recently, although the raw material inventory of smelters has decreased month - on - month, it is still above the safety production margin. [28][42] - The inventory of zinc concentrates at major domestic ports increased by 10,800 tons to 391,400 tons month - on - month. [4][28] Zinc Ore Import - From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume of zinc concentrates was 4.008 million tons (physical tons), a cumulative year - on - year increase of 40.49%. In September, the import volume of zinc concentrates was 505,400 tons (physical tons), a month - on - month increase of 8.15% and a year - on - year increase of 24.94%. [38] - In October, considering the seasonal reduction of mines in the fourth quarter and the strong production enthusiasm of smelters driven by profits, the demand for zinc ore is high. However, the loss of imported zinc ore in October has further expanded compared with September, and domestic smelters are actively buying domestic zinc ore instead of imported ones. The spot import of imported zinc ore is light, and the import volume in October is expected to have no further room for growth. [30] Domestic Ore Total Supply - Overall, the supply of domestic ore has decreased, and there is an expected reduction in imported zinc concentrates. The domestic zinc concentrate supply in October is expected to decrease. [41] Zinc Ore Processing Fee - The monthly processing fee for Zn50 domestic zinc concentrates in November is 3,000 yuan/ton; on October 24, the weekly processing fee for Zn50 domestic zinc concentrates was reduced by 150 yuan to 3,250 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index decreased by $8.5/ton dry to $110.25/ton dry month - on - month. [46] - Currently, the profit of domestic mines is about 4,220 yuan/ton, and domestic smelters' production loss is about 700 yuan/ton (excluding by - product revenue). Including by - product revenue, smelters' profit is about 1,000 yuan/ton. [47] Global Refined Zinc Production - From January to August 2025, global refined zinc production was 9.1482 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12,700 tons or 0.14%; global refined zinc consumption was 8.9683 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16,800 tons or 0.19%. From January to August 2025, the global refined zinc surplus was 179,900 tons. [51] - In August 2025, global refined zinc production was 1.2269 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.35%. The global refined zinc demand was 1.179 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.12%. The global refined zinc surplus was 47,900 tons. [51] Domestic Refined Zinc Supply - In September 2025, the operating rate of domestic refined zinc enterprises was 92.32%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.02%. By scale, the operating rate of large - scale refined zinc enterprises was 93.15%, a month - on - month increase of 0.06%; that of medium - scale refined zinc enterprises was 94.31%, a month - on - month decrease of 10.23%; and that of small - scale refined zinc enterprises was 84.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.45%. [54] - According to SMM data, the SMM China refined zinc output in September decreased by 26,100 tons or 4.17% month - on - month to 600,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.19%. The cumulative output from January to September was 5.069 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.85%. It is expected that the domestic refined zinc output in October 2025 will be 622,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 22,600 tons or 3.77%, and a year - on - year increase of 22.54%. The cumulative output from January to October 2025 is expected to be 5.692 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.2%. [54] Zinc Ingot Import and Export - From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume of refined zinc was 258,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 19.27%. In September, the import volume of refined zinc was 22,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3,000 tons or 11.61%, and a year - on - year decrease of 57.03%. In September, the export volume of refined zinc was 2,500 tons, with a net import of 20,200 tons. [57] - In October, the domestic refined zinc output is expected to increase, but considering that the import window is basically closed, the import of zinc may decrease. The domestic refined zinc supply may increase slightly month - on - month, and attention should be paid to the export situation. [58]

Group 1: Overall Information - Report Title: "Zinc: Export Window Opens, Ratio May Return" [1] - Researcher: Chen Hansong [1] - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F03129697 [1] - Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0020351 [1] Group 2: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Industrial Supply and Demand - **Mine End**: This week, the loss of imported zinc ore continued to widen compared to last week. Smelters mainly purchased domestic zinc ore, and the import trading volume remained light. The processing fee for imported zinc ore remained high, but with the decline of domestic processing fees, some offers for imported zinc ore have been reduced. If the price ratio is repaired later, it may suppress the processing fee of imported zinc ore. The average weekly TC of SMM Zn50 domestic zinc ore decreased by 100 yuan/metal ton to 3400 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index increased by 0.25 US dollars/dry ton to 118.75 US dollars/dry ton. The total inventory of major domestic ports increased by 4.13 tons to 38.06 tons this week [4]. - **Smelting End**: Recently, the zinc price has declined and the domestic TC has decreased, narrowing the smelting profit. However, the by - product revenue is still considerable, and the smelter's profit remains above 1000 yuan/ton, with high enthusiasm for production. In October, although some smelters in China carried out maintenance, the overall refined zinc production in China may increase significantly due to the resumption of production of previously maintained smelters. Recently, the price ratio has worsened, the loss of refined zinc imports has widened, and the spot export window has opened, but there is still a loss for warehouse delivery. If the export warehouse - delivery window opens, attention should be paid to the volume and frequency of exports [4]. - **Consumption**: The traditional peak season for zinc consumption is coming to an end, and domestic zinc consumption is expected to gradually weaken. However, the boosting effect of domestic policies on consumption still needs to be monitored [4]. - **Inventory Data**: As of October 16, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven major regions monitored by SMM was 16.27 tons, a decrease of 0.04 tons from October 12 and an increase of 1.25 tons from October 9. The LME zinc inventory on October 16 was 3.8 tons, a decrease of 550 tons from October 10 [4]. - **Market Outlook**: In October, domestic smelters resumed and increased production, with a significant increase in supply. However, the consumption side did not improve significantly, and the domestic social inventory continued to accumulate, putting pressure on the Shanghai zinc price. Overseas, due to low inventory, the Back structure continued, and affected by the capital side, the LME zinc price was relatively strong. The pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic is expected to continue. Attention should be paid to the opening time of the export window. If the price ratio continues to worsen, an arbitrage strategy of selling LME zinc and buying Shanghai zinc can be pre - arranged [4]. Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Part of the profitable short positions can be liquidated, and short positions can be re - established at high prices [4]. - **Arbitrage**: According to the export situation, a strategy of buying SHFE zinc and selling LME zinc can be pre - arranged [4]. Group 3: Market Data - The report mentions information such as spot premiums, basis of mainstream consumption bases, absolute prices, monthly spreads, trading volume and open interest of Shanghai zinc, social inventory, bonded area inventory, LME inventory, LME cancelled warrant ratio, warrants, and LME inventory by region, but no specific data analysis is provided in the given text [6][12][15][16] Group 4: Fundamental Data Zinc Ore Supply - **Global and Domestic Production**: From January to July 2025, the global zinc concentrate production was 7.1918 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.4649 million tons or 6.91%. Among them, overseas production was 4.8518 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.3559 million tons or 7.92%, and China's production was 2.231 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.109 million tons or 4.89%. In July, the global zinc concentrate production was 1.0762 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.1003 million tons or 10.28%. In September, the domestic zinc concentrate production was 0.3145 million metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.79% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.99%. In October, the expected production is 0.3009 million metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.32% [29]. - **Zinc Ore Imports**: From January to August, the cumulative import volume of zinc concentrate was 3.5027 million tons (physical tons), a cumulative year - on - year increase of 43.06%. In October, the price ratio worsened, and the loss of imported zinc concentrate continued to widen. Although some previously locked - price zinc concentrates and long - term contract goods arrived at ports, the import volume may decrease due to losses [38]. - **Total Domestic Ore Supply**: Overall, the supply of domestic ore has decreased, and the imported zinc concentrate is expected to decrease. In October, the domestic zinc concentrate supply may decrease. Attention should be paid to the change of imported TC. Considering that domestic smelters are about to start winter storage, the demand for ore increases significantly. If the imported TC is further adjusted upwards, the inflow of imported ore may increase [41]. - **Zinc Ore Processing Fees**: In October, the monthly processing fee for domestic Zn50 zinc concentrate was 3650 yuan/ton. On October 17, the weekly processing fee for domestic Zn50 zinc concentrate decreased by 100 yuan to 3400 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index increased by 0.25 US dollars/dry ton to 118.75 US dollars/dry ton [45]. Global and Domestic Refined Zinc Supply - **Global Refined Zinc**: From January to July 2025, the global refined zinc production was 7.9109 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.0923 million tons or 1.15%; the global refined zinc consumption was 7.7945 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.0206 million tons or 0.26%. The global refined zinc had a cumulative surplus of 0.1164 million tons. In July, the global refined zinc production was 1.1993 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%, and the demand was 1.1691 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.87%, with a surplus of 0.0302 million tons [50]. - **Domestic Refined Zinc Supply**: In September, the operating rate of domestic refined zinc enterprises was 92.32%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.02%. The production of SMM China's refined zinc in September was 0.6001 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.0261 million tons or 4.17%, and a year - on - year increase of 20.19%. It is expected that the production in October will be 0.6227 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.0226 million tons or 3.77%, and a year - on - year increase of 22.54%. From January to August, the cumulative import volume of refined zinc was 0.2355 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 11.81%. In September and October, the import window remained closed, and if the export window opens later, domestic refined zinc may be exported. In October, the domestic refined zinc supply may increase slightly month - on - month [53][63] Downstream Demand - The report also mentions data related to the primary processing of zinc, including the operating rate and inventory of downstream enterprises, as well as data on real estate construction, land transaction premium rates, infrastructure investment, automobile production, and white - goods production, but no specific data analysis is provided in the given text [66][72][83][87][90]