瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.31」 沪锌市场周报 炼厂减产延续去库 预计锌价震荡偏强 研究员： 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 来源：瑞达期货研究院 「 期现市场」 本周沪锌期价上涨 沪伦比值震荡 图1、沪锌与伦锌期价 3 行情回顾：本周沪锌主力震荡上涨，周线涨跌幅为+0.45%，振幅2.03%。截止本周主力合约收盘报价23275 元/吨。 行情展望：宏观面，美联储会议纪要："大多数"官员预计12月后适合继续降息，部分主张"一段时间" 按兵不动。2026年第一批625亿元超长期特别国债支持消费品以旧换新资金计划已提前下达。基本面，上游 锌矿进口量下滑，因内外比价继续走差，中国进口锌精矿亏损扩大；国内炼厂原料冬季储备已经启动，更 倾向采购国产锌精矿，不过炼厂采购国产矿竞争加大，国内外加工费均明显下跌，国内炼厂利润收缩，预 计产量将明显下降。不过近期伦锌价格回调，沪伦比值回升，出口窗口存在重新关闭可能。需求端，下游 市场逐步转向 ...

锌周报 2025 年 12 月 8 日 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 宏观推波，供应助力 锌价强劲反弹 核心观点及策略 上周沪锌主力期价反弹。宏观面，近期公布的美国就业及通 胀数据均支持美联储降息，且特朗普发表下任美联储主席人 选的言论，也利好未来降息路径，美元弱势运行，利好风险 资产价格走势。国内临近中央政治局会议，政策预期回升， 市场情绪偏好，铜锡价格不断刷新高点，锌价跟随反弹。基 本面看，供应端供应端收缩态势突出，12 月国内外锌矿加 工费加速下行，其中国产矿加工费均值回落至 2000 元/金属 吨，基本回归年初水平，炼厂利润空间持续压缩，行业减停 产现象增多。SMM 数据显示，11 月国内精炼锌产量不及预期， 回落至 60 万吨下方，预计 12 月产量环比减少 2.4 万吨， 前期高供应压力得到明显缓解。同时，国内外现货升水均走 强，也助力期价偏强运行。不过，消费端仍处于传统淡季， 需求侧未能形成有效配合，初端企业开工率维持不 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, there is an expectation of tight supply at the mine end. Overseas mine supply growth is slowing, and domestic mines are affected by depletion. The Huoshaoyun Mine may not contribute significantly to the market due to poor market utilization. TC is unlikely to rise, and the Benchmark may remain below $100/ton, failing to stimulate overseas smelting growth. In China, smelters are also facing comprehensive cost losses. Therefore, with the expected tight supply at the mine end in 2026, the pressure on smelting supply is expected to weaken significantly. - At the beginning of the 14th Five-Year Plan and during the overseas interest rate cut cycle, there are positive expectations for the consumer end. Even if the production of the Huoshaoyun Mine is realized smoothly, the supply and demand will remain balanced in 2026, but there is still a possibility of the invisibility of visible inventory, resulting in a downward trend in social inventory. If the Huoshaoyun Mine fails to be put into production as expected, the supply and demand will be tight. - The report is not pessimistic about the zinc price in 2026 [5]. Summary by Directory I. Zinc Ore - **1.1 Overseas mines are growing as expected, but the supply pressure will significantly decline in 2026** - In Q3 2025, overseas mine production was 1.3 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 126,000 tons; the cumulative production of the sample from January to September was 3.755 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 326,000 tons. The increase mainly comes from new and复产 projects as expected. Kipushi has复产 as scheduled, with improved grade and recovery rate, and its production is expected to increase further. Its production is expected to increase by 60,000 tons year-on-year in 2026. Antamina is one of the main mines contributing to the increase overseas this year, with a year-on-year increase of 172,000 tons in zinc concentrate production from January to September. However, it will shift to copper production from 2026 - 2028, and its production is expected to be lower than in 2025, with a year-on-year decline of 150,000 tons in 2026. The复产 of the Tera Mine is slower than expected, with a production of 60,000 tons in the first three quarters. It is expected to contribute an incremental output of 10,000 - 20,000 tons in 2026. Gamsberg's production has increased significantly due to improved capacity utilization and a higher proportion of high-grade ore, and it is expected to contribute an incremental output of 50,000 tons in the second half of 2026. Grupo Mexico's production has increased due to improved mine grade, but its incremental output in 2026 is expected to be less than 10,000 tons. The OZ Mine is expected to contribute an incremental output of 100,000 tons in 2026. The Red Dog Mine's production has declined due to grade decline, and it is expected to continue to decline by 80,000 - 100,000 tons year-on-year in 2026 [11][12][13]. - It is estimated that the overseas zinc concentrate production will be 8.29 million tons in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 420,000 tons, and is expected to contribute an incremental output of 90,000 tons in 2026 [6]. - For domestic mines, from January to October, the domestic zinc ore production was 3.058 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 56,000 tons. Due to factors such as depletion of existing domestic mines, the production of old mines in the sample is showing a downward trend. The Huoshaoyun Mine has great uncertainties, and its impact on the market needs to be further observed. In 2025, without considering the Huoshaoyun Mine, the new and复产 capacities will contribute 50,000 tons, but considering the decline in the production of sample mines, the domestic ore supply will increase slightly by 30,000 tons year-on-year. In 2026, the new and复产 projects are expected to contribute an output of about 60,000 tons, and with the use of a small amount of ore sold by the Huoshaoyun Mine for blending, the domestic ore supply is expected to increase by 100,000 tons (excluding the contribution of the Huoshaoyun Mine's self - smelting into zinc ingots). At the same time, attention should be paid to the production decline of old sample mines due to depletion problems [14][15][16]. - From January to October, the import of zinc ore was 4.349 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 36.6%. Since June, zinc ore imports have been facing continuous losses, and the year-on-year growth rate of monthly zinc ore imports has dropped rapidly [16]. II. Refined Zinc - **2.1 High profit pressure at home and abroad, and the supply pressure will be alleviated quarter-on-quarter** - In China, the supply pressure began to appear in the second half of the year. From June, the daily average output increased significantly month-on-month, and from July, the year-on-year growth rate of monthly output exceeded 20%. The social inventory of zinc ingots began to accumulate rapidly from July, and the domestic spot market quickly changed from a premium structure to a discount structure under high supply pressure. In terms of absolute price, after the price dropped rapidly from a high of over 25,000 yuan/ton to 22,000 yuan/ton in the first half of the year due to supply pressure, in the second half of the year, after the supply pressure was realized, the absolute price fluctuated in the range of 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton, mainly supported by the macro - environment. Compared with copper and aluminum prices, the relative price of zinc is still declining [29]. - From January to October, the cumulative output of zinc ingots was 5.686 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 10.1%. It is estimated that the annual output will be 5.9 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 11.5%. From January to October, China's cumulative import of refined zinc was 277,000 tons, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 26.6%. In 2025, China's long - term import order of zinc ingots was about 15,000 - 20,000 tons per month. The import window closed in May, and the pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets continued, with the import loss expanding. The export window opened in October. It is expected that China's long - term import order of zinc ingots will significantly decrease in 2026 and may even approach zero, and the export window may open periodically, and China will become a net exporter of zinc ingots, which will effectively relieve the domestic supply pressure [29][30][31]. - Since September, the domestic mine TC has started to decline, and since October, the imported mine TC has also declined synchronously. The smelting losses of domestic smelters have expanded, from a minimum loss of 100 yuan/ton to a loss of 1,300 yuan/ton. Even with the continuous increase in the sulfuric acid price, the industry is currently at the break - even point, and high - cost areas are facing comprehensive cost losses. The daily average output of the supply side has dropped from a high of 20,200 tons to 19,900 tons. Although the overseas mine production is increasing as expected, the TC is showing a downward trend. From the perspective of mine supply, although the supply will still grow in 2026, the worst - expected period has ended. Therefore, considering the smelting profit, the current supply pressure still exists, but it is expected to be alleviated quarter - on - quarter [30][31]. - Overseas supply problems may still not be resolved. It is predicted that the overseas zinc ingot output will be 6.836 million tons in 2025, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 1.4%. The European region has contributed to the continuous decline, which is inevitably related to the power cost problem. Since the European energy crisis, the power cost has not returned to the pre - crisis level and is even higher than the domestic electricity price. In addition, regions such as Australia and the United States are also facing power cost problems. If the 2026 zinc ore Benchmark pricing does not improve significantly compared to this year, in the long run, the overseas supply side will not put pressure on the zinc price, and more attention should be paid to the sustainability of consumption [32]. - **2.2 The social inventory accumulation is lower than expected** - In the first half of the year, strong domestic demand and export - driven consumption, combined with the fact that the supply side had not yet released pressure, led to lower - than - expected inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival and inventory depletion to a historical low during the peak season. In the second half of the year, after the supply expectations were realized, the social inventory was originally expected to accumulate to 200,000 tons, but in fact, due to the unexpected growth of domestic demand and the overseas warehouse receipt risk, the export window opened. Since October, although the social inventory is at a historical high for the same period, it has shown a seasonal downward trend. The highest point of the social inventory this year was only 160,000 tons. The reasons for the lower - than - expected inventory accumulation include: consumption structural reform, which made us underestimate the actual consumption as the decline of traditional real estate and infrastructure offset by new consumption; the expansion of the alloying scale of intermediate processed products, resulting in the invisibility of visible inventory; the opening of the export window, which enabled traders and smelters to open up overseas sales channels. If the domestic supply side is compressed due to cost problems in the future, the inventory depletion rhythm is expected to accelerate, which will be a positive factor for the zinc price [53][54][56]. - The LME inventory has dropped from 230,000 tons at the beginning of the year to a minimum of 35,000 tons, and there has been a warehouse receipt risk with a rapid increase in the spot premium. Although there has been a slight increase subsequently, the absolute inventory level is still low, and the warehouse receipt risk has not been resolved. On the one hand, there has been an unexpected production cut on the overseas supply side, and on the other hand, consumption has been strong, and overseas tariff trade wars have not affected the actual consumption [56]. III. Downstream Consumption - **3.1 Export drives galvanized consumption** - From January to October, China's cumulative net export of galvanized strips was 11.101 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 12.4%. The cumulative growth rate of excavator sales reached 17%, which is not in line with the growth rate of China's real estate and infrastructure, and is more due to the infrastructure demand in third - world countries driven by China's development. Therefore, in 2026, exports are expected to maintain a high - growth contribution to commodity consumption and may continue for many years. Considering the export of galvanized strips, angle steels, and automobile tires, it is estimated that exports will drive zinc consumption to increase by 120,000 tons in 2026 [64]. - **3.3 New energy power drives consumption growth** - From January to September, China's photovoltaic installed capacity was 240.4GW, a year-on-year increase of 49.4%. Affected by the policy, the installed capacity was pre - consumed, and the annual installed capacity is expected to be 280 - 290GW, with the year-on-year growth rate dropping to 3 - 5%. In 2026, the preliminary expected installed capacity is about 250GW, a year-on-year decrease of about 10%. Considering the increase in the proportion of centralized photovoltaics driving the demand for galvanizing, it is estimated that the zinc consumption in the photovoltaic sector will be 380,000 tons in 2026, a year-on-year decrease of 40,000 tons. - At the beginning of the 14th Five - Year Plan, there are clear goals for the power grid and new energy power. It is estimated that the cumulative incremental installed capacity in five years can reach 600GW, with an average annual incremental installed capacity of 120GW, and there is a possibility of accelerating the completion at the beginning. From January to October, China's wind power installed capacity was 70GW, and the annual installed capacity is expected to be 104GW, corresponding to a zinc consumption of 310,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 70,000 tons. In 2026, the expected installed capacity is 120GW, corresponding to a zinc consumption of 360,000 tons, contributing an incremental output of 50,000 tons. - From January to October, China's cumulative investment in power grid construction was 437.8 billion yuan, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 9.9%. In 2026, as the starting year of the 14th Five - Year Plan, UHV projects such as "Xinjiang Power to Sichuan" and "Gansu Power to Zhejiang" will be promoted, and rural power grid upgrading and transformation will be carried out. It is estimated that the average annual compound growth rate of the 14th Five - Year Plan power grid can reach 8%, and there is a possibility of accelerating in the first two years. It is estimated that the power grid towers, transformers, etc. will drive zinc consumption by 50,000 tons [67][68]. - **3.4 Halving of domestic purchase tax, and the growth of automobile output depends on exports** - From January to October, China's cumulative automobile production was 27.692 million vehicles, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 13.2%, among which the cumulative year-on-year increase in new energy vehicle production was 33.1%, and the cumulative year-on-year decrease in traditional vehicle production was 0.1%. The comprehensive data is much better than the initial expectations. It is estimated that the annual cumulative automobile production will be 33.5 million vehicles, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 10.3% (3.22 million vehicles). - In terms of exports, from January to October, China's cumulative automobile export volume was 5.615 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 15.7%. According to this data, the annual export is estimated to contribute an incremental output of 1.1 million vehicles. According to customs data, China's cumulative automobile exports (including chassis) were 6.51 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 23.3%. According to this data, the annual export is estimated to contribute an incremental output of 1.8 million vehicles. Although this includes second - hand car exports, it can also be seen that automobile exports have made a significant contribution to China's automobile production. In 2026, although the halving of the domestic automobile purchase tax may put pressure on automobile production, under the optimistic export expectations, it is estimated that the automobile production in 2026 can reach 37.2 million vehicles, with a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 7.8%, corresponding to an increase in zinc consumption of 60,000 - 70,000 tons [73]. - **3.5 Domestic consumption structural reform** - From January to October, China's cumulative infrastructure investment increased by only 1.5% year-on-year, the cumulative year-on-year decline in new real estate construction was 19.8%, the cumulative year-on-year decline in real estate construction was 9.4%, and the cumulative year-on-year decline in real estate completion was 16.9%. The traditional consumption sector has dragged down consumption. However, structural reform brings new hope. In addition to the automobile and power investment sectors mentioned above, attention should also be paid to the investment growth rate of water transportation, which was 9.4% from January to October. - From January to October, China's cumulative air - conditioner production increased by 3% year-on-year, the cumulative year-on-year decline in color TV production was 2.3%, the cumulative year-on-year increase in household refrigerator production was 0.9%, and the cumulative year-on-year increase in household washing machine production was 6.4%. The performance of the home appliance sector was mediocre [81]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2025, the actual apparent consumption growth rate is estimated to reach 7.1%, and there is a phenomenon of the invisibility of visible inventory into finished product inventories such as zinc alloys, which also indicates that zinc alloy enterprises are expanding production due to consumption growth. After the decline in the absolute price, it is estimated that downstream enterprises will shift from active inventory depletion to active inventory replenishment, and the actual consumption growth rate can reach 4.3%. - For 2026, the actual consumption growth rate is estimated to reach 2.8%, and there is a possibility that the apparent consumption growth rate will be greater than the actual due to continuous inventory replenishment by downstream enterprises. Regarding the supply side's attitude towards the Huoshaoyun Mine, without considering its production contribution, the smelting supply growth rate is expected to be 1.7%, and there will be a domestic supply shortage of 150,000 tons. Even if an optimistic expectation is given to the Huoshaoyun Mine, contributing an incremental output of

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that China's zinc ore and concentrate imports in October amounted to 340,863 tons, representing a month-on-month decrease of 32.48% but a year-on-year increase of 3.19% [1] - Peru's shipment volume increased significantly by 35% to 95,700 tons, reclaiming the top position in supply, while Australia's supply dropped sharply by 60%, falling below 50,000 tons [1] - The price disparity between domestic and international markets has worsened, leading to sustained losses in imported zinc concentrates, which has resulted in a decreased willingness of domestic smelters to purchase imported ores [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zinc prices are under pressure from above and supported from below, with no clear direction. The short - term is expected to maintain range consolidation. Unilateral strategies should focus on high - selling and low - buying, and arbitrage strategies can consider going long on the Shanghai - London ratio [3][65][66]. - The tight pattern of the zinc ore end is expected to continue until the first quarter of next year. The TC has changed from rising to falling, and the industrial chain profit has shifted from the smelter end to the ore end again. The inventory trends at home and abroad are diverging [2][62][63]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Total Overview - In August 2025, the global zinc market supply surplus expanded to 47,900 tons. From January to August 2025, the global refined zinc supply surplus was 154,000 tons. From July to August 2025, the global zinc concentrate cumulative output was 2.1712 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.57%. From January to August 2025, the global refined zinc output was 9.1482 million tons, basically the same as the cumulative output of last year [11]. - The statistical sample of this report shows that the zinc concentrate output in the third quarter of 2025 was 1.4424 million tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 0.95% and a year - on - year increase of 8.20%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 4.254 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.31% [11]. 3.2 Glencore - In 2025, Glencore's zinc concentrate production guidance was adjusted to 94 - 980,000 tons. In the third quarter, the zinc concentrate output was 244,200 tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 2.94% and a year - on - year increase of 7.86%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 709,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10.22% [19]. 3.3 Teck - In 2025, Teck's zinc concentrate production guidance was 525,000 - 575,000 tons. In the third quarter, the zinc concentrate output was 150,500 tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 10.68% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.59%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 456,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 2.81% [24]. 3.4 Boliden - In the third quarter of 2025, Boliden's zinc concentrate output was 108,000 tons, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 5.08% and a year - on - year increase of 17.75%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 317,600 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 21.12% [27]. 3.5 Vedanta - In the third quarter of 2025, Vedanta's zinc concentrate output was 262,000 tons, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 1.16% and a year - on - year increase of 8.26%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 785,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.65% [32]. 3.6 Nexa - In 2025, Nexa's zinc concentrate production guidance was 300,000 - 336,000 tons. In the third quarter, the zinc concentrate output was 83,700 tons, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 13.88% and a year - on - year increase of 1.21%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 224,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 11.05% [37]. 3.7 MMG - In 2025, MMG's zinc concentrate production guidance was 215,000 - 240,000 tons. In the third quarter, the zinc concentrate output was 58,700 tons, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 4.58% and a year - on - year increase of 26.49%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 166,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.85% [44]. 3.8 Newmont Goldcorp - In 2025, Newmont's zinc concentrate production guidance was 236,000 tons. In the third quarter, the zinc concentrate output was 59,000 tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 11.52% and a year - on - year increase of 2.42%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 184,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.30% [47][48]. 3.9 BHP - In the 2025 fiscal year, BHP's zinc concentrate production guidance was 90,000 - 110,000 tons. In the third quarter, the zinc concentrate output was 36,000 tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 10.95% and a year - on - year increase of 85.77%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 102,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 91.03% [49]. 3.10 South32 - In the 2026 fiscal year, South32's zinc concentrate production guidance was 40,000 tons, a decrease compared with the 2025 fiscal year. In the third quarter of 2025, the zinc concentrate output was 8,300 tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 21.70% and a year - on - year decrease of 31.40%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 29,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 31.74% [50][51]. 3.11 Grupo Mexico - SCC - In 2025, SCC's zinc concentrate production guidance was 174,700 tons, a slight increase compared with the previous period. In the third quarter, the zinc concentrate output was 45,500 tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 0.89% and a year - on - year increase of 46.42%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 130,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 50.55% [52]. 3.12 Industrials Pelones - In the third quarter of 2025, Pelones' zinc concentrate output was 63,200 tons, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 5.02% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.33%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 181,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 13.68% [54]. 3.13 Fresnillo plc - In 2025, Fresnillo plc's zinc concentrate production guidance was 93,000 - 103,000 tons. In the third quarter, the zinc concentrate output was 24,700 tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 12.91% and a year - on - year decrease of 23.41%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 78,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 10.61% [57]. 3.14 Market Outlook - The tight pattern of the ore end is expected to continue until the first quarter of next year. The TC has changed from rising to falling, and the industrial chain profit has shifted from the smelter end to the ore end again. The domestic and foreign inventory trends are diverging. Zinc prices are under pressure from above and supported from below, with no clear direction [62][63][65].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a zinc special report dated November 10, 2025, focusing on the Q3 financial reports of overseas zinc mines [4][8][12] Group 2: Overseas Mine Production Overseas Part - Mine Output Aggregation - The report provides a detailed table of the production of overseas mining enterprises from 2021Q1 to 2025Q3, including Vedanta, Glencore, TECK, etc. The total production shows fluctuations over different quarters and years, with varying year - on - year growth rates [16] Global Zinc Concentrate Annual Output - The annual output and year - on - year growth rate of global zinc concentrate from 2017 to 2025E are presented. The output in 2025E is expected to be 1262.05 million tons, with a year - on - year growth of 5.90% [70] Zinc Concentrate Production Change Forecast - In 2025, overseas mines are expected to have a net increase of 59.49 million tons in production, with new mines, production increases, restarts, and some mines reducing production or shutting down. Domestic mines are expected to have a new production increase of 10.80 million tons, with a total global net increase of 70.29 million tons [73] - Forecasts for production changes from 2026 - 2030 are also provided, with a total net increase of 23.27 million tons in 2026, 5.60 million tons in 2027, 12.10 million tons in 2028, 6.30 million tons in 2029, and 0.70 million tons in 2030 [75]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic zinc fundamentals have not changed significantly recently. Although the zinc concentrate processing fee has been adjusted down, smelters are still profitable, and the supply of refined zinc continues to increase. The overseas inventory has slightly increased but remains at a relatively low level. Coupled with the impact of the capital side, the LME zinc price is strong. The pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets has further intensified, and the export profit has further widened. The zinc price in Shanghai is likely to rise rather than fall, and one can try to go long at low prices. [4] - The traditional peak season for zinc consumption is coming to an end, and domestic zinc consumption is expected to gradually weaken. However, attention should still be paid to the boosting effect of domestic policies on consumption. [4] - The export window has opened, and some domestic zinc ingots have been delivered to warehouses in Southeast Asia. The export volume and frequency need to be monitored. If there is a large - scale delivery overseas, one should stop profit in time for the previous operation of shorting SHFE and going long LME, and change the strategy to go long SHFE and short LME in advance. [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Trading Logic - In the mining end, domestic smelters have been continuously snapping up domestic zinc concentrates, leading to a continuous decline in domestic zinc concentrate processing fees. Imported ore is still at a loss, but due to the continuous decline in domestic zinc concentrate processing fees, imported zinc concentrate traders have also reduced their quotes. [4] - At the smelting end, the recent decline in zinc prices and domestic TC has narrowed smelting profits. However, the by - product revenue is still considerable, and smelters' profits are still around 1,000 yuan/ton, with the smelting start - up rate remaining high. In October, although some domestic smelters carried out maintenance, some previously - maintained smelters resumed production, and the overall domestic refined zinc output may increase significantly. [4] - In terms of consumption, the traditional peak season for zinc consumption is passing, and domestic zinc consumption is expected to gradually weaken. [4] - Inventory data shows that as of October 23, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 162,100 tons, a decrease of 3,200 tons compared with October 20 and a decrease of 600 tons compared with October 16. The LME zinc inventory on October 23 was 37,600 tons, an increase of 275 tons compared with October 17. [4] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: One can try to go long on zinc in Shanghai at low prices. [4] - Arbitrage: One can pre - arrange the operation of going long SHFE and shorting LME according to the export situation. [4] Chapter 2: Market Data - No specific data analysis content provided in the given text, only some market data indicators such as spot premium, absolute price and monthly spread, trading volume and open interest of Shanghai zinc, social inventory, etc. are listed. [6][12][15] Chapter 3: Fundamental Data Zinc Ore Supply - Global zinc concentrate production from January to August 2025 was 8.2907 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 593,700 tons or 7.71%. In July, global zinc concentrate production was 1.0976 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 127,500 tons or 13.14%. [28] - In September 2025, SMM's domestic zinc concentrate production was 314,500 metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.79% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.99%. In October, it is expected to be 300,900 metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.32%. [28] - As of September, domestic smelter raw material inventory increased by 10.63 days to 26.3 days compared with the same period last year. Recently, although the raw material inventory of smelters has decreased month - on - month, it is still above the safety production margin. [28][42] - The inventory of zinc concentrates at major domestic ports increased by 10,800 tons to 391,400 tons month - on - month. [4][28] Zinc Ore Import - From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume of zinc concentrates was 4.008 million tons (physical tons), a cumulative year - on - year increase of 40.49%. In September, the import volume of zinc concentrates was 505,400 tons (physical tons), a month - on - month increase of 8.15% and a year - on - year increase of 24.94%. [38] - In October, considering the seasonal reduction of mines in the fourth quarter and the strong production enthusiasm of smelters driven by profits, the demand for zinc ore is high. However, the loss of imported zinc ore in October has further expanded compared with September, and domestic smelters are actively buying domestic zinc ore instead of imported ones. The spot import of imported zinc ore is light, and the import volume in October is expected to have no further room for growth. [30] Domestic Ore Total Supply - Overall, the supply of domestic ore has decreased, and there is an expected reduction in imported zinc concentrates. The domestic zinc concentrate supply in October is expected to decrease. [41] Zinc Ore Processing Fee - The monthly processing fee for Zn50 domestic zinc concentrates in November is 3,000 yuan/ton; on October 24, the weekly processing fee for Zn50 domestic zinc concentrates was reduced by 150 yuan to 3,250 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index decreased by $8.5/ton dry to $110.25/ton dry month - on - month. [46] - Currently, the profit of domestic mines is about 4,220 yuan/ton, and domestic smelters' production loss is about 700 yuan/ton (excluding by - product revenue). Including by - product revenue, smelters' profit is about 1,000 yuan/ton. [47] Global Refined Zinc Production - From January to August 2025, global refined zinc production was 9.1482 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12,700 tons or 0.14%; global refined zinc consumption was 8.9683 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16,800 tons or 0.19%. From January to August 2025, the global refined zinc surplus was 179,900 tons. [51] - In August 2025, global refined zinc production was 1.2269 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.35%. The global refined zinc demand was 1.179 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.12%. The global refined zinc surplus was 47,900 tons. [51] Domestic Refined Zinc Supply - In September 2025, the operating rate of domestic refined zinc enterprises was 92.32%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.02%. By scale, the operating rate of large - scale refined zinc enterprises was 93.15%, a month - on - month increase of 0.06%; that of medium - scale refined zinc enterprises was 94.31%, a month - on - month decrease of 10.23%; and that of small - scale refined zinc enterprises was 84.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.45%. [54] - According to SMM data, the SMM China refined zinc output in September decreased by 26,100 tons or 4.17% month - on - month to 600,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.19%. The cumulative output from January to September was 5.069 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.85%. It is expected that the domestic refined zinc output in October 2025 will be 622,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 22,600 tons or 3.77%, and a year - on - year increase of 22.54%. The cumulative output from January to October 2025 is expected to be 5.692 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.2%. [54] Zinc Ingot Import and Export - From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume of refined zinc was 258,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 19.27%. In September, the import volume of refined zinc was 22,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3,000 tons or 11.61%, and a year - on - year decrease of 57.03%. In September, the export volume of refined zinc was 2,500 tons, with a net import of 20,200 tons. [57] - In October, the domestic refined zinc output is expected to increase, but considering that the import window is basically closed, the import of zinc may decrease. The domestic refined zinc supply may increase slightly month - on - month, and attention should be paid to the export situation. [58]

Group 1: Overall Information - Report Title: "Zinc: Export Window Opens, Ratio May Return" [1] - Researcher: Chen Hansong [1] - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F03129697 [1] - Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0020351 [1] Group 2: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Industrial Supply and Demand - **Mine End**: This week, the loss of imported zinc ore continued to widen compared to last week. Smelters mainly purchased domestic zinc ore, and the import trading volume remained light. The processing fee for imported zinc ore remained high, but with the decline of domestic processing fees, some offers for imported zinc ore have been reduced. If the price ratio is repaired later, it may suppress the processing fee of imported zinc ore. The average weekly TC of SMM Zn50 domestic zinc ore decreased by 100 yuan/metal ton to 3400 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index increased by 0.25 US dollars/dry ton to 118.75 US dollars/dry ton. The total inventory of major domestic ports increased by 4.13 tons to 38.06 tons this week [4]. - **Smelting End**: Recently, the zinc price has declined and the domestic TC has decreased, narrowing the smelting profit. However, the by - product revenue is still considerable, and the smelter's profit remains above 1000 yuan/ton, with high enthusiasm for production. In October, although some smelters in China carried out maintenance, the overall refined zinc production in China may increase significantly due to the resumption of production of previously maintained smelters. Recently, the price ratio has worsened, the loss of refined zinc imports has widened, and the spot export window has opened, but there is still a loss for warehouse delivery. If the export warehouse - delivery window opens, attention should be paid to the volume and frequency of exports [4]. - **Consumption**: The traditional peak season for zinc consumption is coming to an end, and domestic zinc consumption is expected to gradually weaken. However, the boosting effect of domestic policies on consumption still needs to be monitored [4]. - **Inventory Data**: As of October 16, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven major regions monitored by SMM was 16.27 tons, a decrease of 0.04 tons from October 12 and an increase of 1.25 tons from October 9. The LME zinc inventory on October 16 was 3.8 tons, a decrease of 550 tons from October 10 [4]. - **Market Outlook**: In October, domestic smelters resumed and increased production, with a significant increase in supply. However, the consumption side did not improve significantly, and the domestic social inventory continued to accumulate, putting pressure on the Shanghai zinc price. Overseas, due to low inventory, the Back structure continued, and affected by the capital side, the LME zinc price was relatively strong. The pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic is expected to continue. Attention should be paid to the opening time of the export window. If the price ratio continues to worsen, an arbitrage strategy of selling LME zinc and buying Shanghai zinc can be pre - arranged [4]. Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Part of the profitable short positions can be liquidated, and short positions can be re - established at high prices [4]. - **Arbitrage**: According to the export situation, a strategy of buying SHFE zinc and selling LME zinc can be pre - arranged [4]. Group 3: Market Data - The report mentions information such as spot premiums, basis of mainstream consumption bases, absolute prices, monthly spreads, trading volume and open interest of Shanghai zinc, social inventory, bonded area inventory, LME inventory, LME cancelled warrant ratio, warrants, and LME inventory by region, but no specific data analysis is provided in the given text [6][12][15][16] Group 4: Fundamental Data Zinc Ore Supply - **Global and Domestic Production**: From January to July 2025, the global zinc concentrate production was 7.1918 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.4649 million tons or 6.91%. Among them, overseas production was 4.8518 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.3559 million tons or 7.92%, and China's production was 2.231 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.109 million tons or 4.89%. In July, the global zinc concentrate production was 1.0762 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.1003 million tons or 10.28%. In September, the domestic zinc concentrate production was 0.3145 million metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.79% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.99%. In October, the expected production is 0.3009 million metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.32% [29]. - **Zinc Ore Imports**: From January to August, the cumulative import volume of zinc concentrate was 3.5027 million tons (physical tons), a cumulative year - on - year increase of 43.06%. In October, the price ratio worsened, and the loss of imported zinc concentrate continued to widen. Although some previously locked - price zinc concentrates and long - term contract goods arrived at ports, the import volume may decrease due to losses [38]. - **Total Domestic Ore Supply**: Overall, the supply of domestic ore has decreased, and the imported zinc concentrate is expected to decrease. In October, the domestic zinc concentrate supply may decrease. Attention should be paid to the change of imported TC. Considering that domestic smelters are about to start winter storage, the demand for ore increases significantly. If the imported TC is further adjusted upwards, the inflow of imported ore may increase [41]. - **Zinc Ore Processing Fees**: In October, the monthly processing fee for domestic Zn50 zinc concentrate was 3650 yuan/ton. On October 17, the weekly processing fee for domestic Zn50 zinc concentrate decreased by 100 yuan to 3400 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index increased by 0.25 US dollars/dry ton to 118.75 US dollars/dry ton [45]. Global and Domestic Refined Zinc Supply - **Global Refined Zinc**: From January to July 2025, the global refined zinc production was 7.9109 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.0923 million tons or 1.15%; the global refined zinc consumption was 7.7945 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.0206 million tons or 0.26%. The global refined zinc had a cumulative surplus of 0.1164 million tons. In July, the global refined zinc production was 1.1993 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%, and the demand was 1.1691 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.87%, with a surplus of 0.0302 million tons [50]. - **Domestic Refined Zinc Supply**: In September, the operating rate of domestic refined zinc enterprises was 92.32%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.02%. The production of SMM China's refined zinc in September was 0.6001 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.0261 million tons or 4.17%, and a year - on - year increase of 20.19%. It is expected that the production in October will be 0.6227 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.0226 million tons or 3.77%, and a year - on - year increase of 22.54%. From January to August, the cumulative import volume of refined zinc was 0.2355 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 11.81%. In September and October, the import window remained closed, and if the export window opens later, domestic refined zinc may be exported. In October, the domestic refined zinc supply may increase slightly month - on - month [53][63] Downstream Demand - The report also mentions data related to the primary processing of zinc, including the operating rate and inventory of downstream enterprises, as well as data on real estate construction, land transaction premium rates, infrastructure investment, automobile production, and white - goods production, but no specific data analysis is provided in the given text [66][72][83][87][90]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zinc supply pressure persists, and the inflection point of inventory reduction remains to be confirmed, with a neutral - weak strength analysis [2][5] - The Fed's interest - rate cut has been finalized, and the market focus has returned to fundamentals. The domestic supply - demand imbalance is prominent, and the pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic zinc prices is more obvious. There is a chance for the export window to open in the fourth quarter. During the period of strong domestic supply and weak demand, SHFE zinc may be relatively weaker, and short - to medium - term (within a quarter) positive spread positions can be cautiously held [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Price**: Last week, the closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 21,980 yuan, with a weekly decline of 0.29%; the closing price of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 2,886.5 dollars, with a weekly decline of 0.41%. The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract in the night session was 21,705 yuan, with a decline of 1.25% [6] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract last Friday was 126,716 lots, an increase of 49,318 lots compared with the previous week; the open interest was 126,086 lots, an increase of 64,242 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 8,163 lots, a decrease of 1,704 lots; the open interest was 219,399 lots, an increase of 2,338 lots [6] - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc warehouse - receipt inventory increased by 5,042 tons to 57,573 tons; SHFE zinc total inventory increased by 1,229 tons to 100,544 tons; social inventory decreased by 8,100 tons to 150,400 tons; LME zinc inventory decreased by 5,050 tons to 42,775 tons; bonded - area inventory remained unchanged at 8,000 tons [6] 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison 3.2.1 Inventory - Zinc ore and smelter finished - product inventories have risen to high levels, while zinc ingot visible inventories have declined [9] 3.2.2 Profit - Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are at a historical median level. Mining enterprise profits are stable in the short term, smelting profits have declined, and galvanized pipe enterprise profits are stable at a medium - to - low level in the same period [11][12] 3.2.3 Operating Rate - The zinc smelting operating rate has recovered to a high level, while the downstream operating rate is at a historically low level. Zinc concentrate operating rate has declined, refined zinc operating rate has increased, and downstream galvanizing, die - casting zinc, and zinc oxide operating rates are generally at a low level [13][14] 3.3 Trading Aspects 3.3.1 Spot - Spot prices are continuously at a discount. Overseas premiums are relatively stable, with a slight decline in Antwerp, and the LME CASH - 3M structure has changed significantly [17][20] 3.3.2 Spread - SHFE zinc shows a C - structure [22] 3.3.3 Inventory - Inventory reduction has occurred, but the inflection point remains to be confirmed, and the open - interest - to - inventory ratio continues to decline. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore, with a short - term slight decline and at a historical low in the same period. CASH - 3M is related to LME off - warrant inventory. Bonded - area inventory is stable, and the total global zinc visible inventory has declined slightly [28][34][37] 3.3.4 Futures - The domestic open interest is at a historical median level in the same period [38] 3.4 Supply 3.4.1 Zinc Concentrate - Zinc concentrate imports have rebounded significantly, domestic zinc ore production is at a historical median level, import ore processing fees continue to rise, and domestic ore processing fees have decreased. Ore arrival volume is at a median level, and smelter raw - material inventory is abundant, at a historical high in the same period [41][42] 3.4.2 Refined Zinc - Smelting output has increased and is at a historical high in the same period. Smelter finished - product inventory has increased and is at a historical high in the same period. Zinc alloy output is at a high level. Refined zinc imports are at a historical median level [49][51] 3.4.3 Recycled Zinc Raw Materials - No significant summary information provided 3.5 Zinc Demand - Refined zinc consumption growth rate is positive. The downstream monthly operating rate has declined slightly and is mostly at a medium - to - low level in the same period. The real - estate market remains at a low level, and the power grid shows structural increments [61][63][75] 3.6 Overseas Factors - No significant summary information provided regarding the impact on the zinc market, only data on natural gas, carbon, and electricity prices are presented [76]

Core Insights - Rosh Pinah Zinc Company (RPZ) has secured $150 million in debt financing from Standard Bank for its expansion project in Namibia [1] - The expansion will modernize the infrastructure of the Rosh Pinah mine and nearly double its zinc production capacity to 170 million pounds per year [1] - The project is over 80% complete, remains within budget, and is expected to be finished by Q3 2026, leading to an increase in output [1] Financing Details - The financing will cover the remaining construction costs of the mine expansion [1] Project Scope - The expansion includes further development of underground mining and the construction of new surface facilities, such as a new concentrator, a water treatment plant, and a newly developed entrance [1]