证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 01 日│中国香港 互联网 天立国际控股公布 FY25 业绩：收入 35.89 亿元，yoy+8.1%；净利润 6.48 亿元，yoy+16.5%，符合业绩预告；调整后归母净利润约 6.34 亿元，不及 我们预期的 7.71 亿元。FY25 公司在"质量优先"战略下加强了生源优化和 对优质师资、餐饮后勤、AI 业务的投入，导致短期财务表现略逊预期。FY26 起公司将加强教育质量和短期财务表现的再平衡，推动利润逐渐重回增长。 公司全年派息总额约 2 亿元，派息率维持在 30%左右，股东回报稳健。当 前估值具备较高性价比，维持"买入"评级。 各板块收入稳健增长，升学成果再创新高 FY25 综合教育服务/产品销售/综合后勤服务/管理及特许经营收入分别同比 增长 7%/8%/2.7%/93.9%。公司升学成绩硕果累累，2025 高考成熟校区本 科率达 90%，一本率达 58%；成长期校区本科率达 32%，一本率达 14%； 国际升学、强基竞赛亦取得亮眼成绩。作为第二曲线的托管业务持续发展， 截至 25 年秋季已签约 23 所学校、40 个学段。 "质量优先"导向下招生及利润略逊预 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][4][6] Core Views - The company reported FY25H1 revenue of 1.876 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 14%, and a net profit of 390 million RMB, up 36.3% year-on-year, indicating performance in line with expectations [1][2] - The mid-term dividend payout ratio remains at 30%, reflecting stable shareholder returns, and the company is expected to benefit from the relatively inelastic demand for private higher education degrees and a stable policy environment [1][3] - The company has significant potential for improving the utilization of existing schools and expanding into diversified new businesses such as management and franchising, which could further enhance growth opportunities [1][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For FY25H1, the comprehensive education services segment generated revenue of 1.013 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 18.9%, driven primarily by a 46.8% year-on-year growth in high school student enrollment [2] - The management and franchising (custodial) business achieved revenue of 56 million RMB, a remarkable year-on-year increase of 116.3%, with the number of managed schools reaching 18, an increase of 8 schools year-on-year [2] - The gross profit margin for FY25H1 reached 37.6%, up 2.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin improved to 20.8%, up 3.4 percentage points year-on-year [3] Valuation and Forecast - The adjusted net profit forecasts for FY25, FY26, and FY27 are 771 million RMB, 995 million RMB, and 1.132 billion RMB respectively, with a target price adjusted slightly to 5.89 HKD, corresponding to an adjusted FY25 PE of approximately 14.8x [4][11] - The report employs a DCF valuation method with a WACC of 10.76% and a perpetual growth rate of 1% [4][10]