Core Viewpoint - The company, Guangzheng Education, anticipates a significant decline in net profit for the fiscal year ending August 31, 2025, projecting an unaudited consolidated net profit of approximately RMB 37.7 million, compared to an audited consolidated net profit of about RMB 96.4 million for the fiscal year ending August 31, 2024 [1] Financial Performance - The projected decline in net profit is primarily attributed to a substantial decrease in revenue from school-related supply chain operations and comprehensive educational services, with reductions of approximately RMB 37 million and RMB 14.1 million, respectively [1] - Additionally, the company expects a decrease of about RMB 34.9 million in other income and losses related to anticipated credit losses from financial guarantee contracts [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tianli International Holdings (01773) with a target price not specified [4] Core Viewpoints - The company reported FY25H1 revenue of 1.9 billion RMB, a 14% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 390 million RMB, reflecting a 36% year-on-year growth. The earnings per share (EPS) reached 0.1928 RMB, up 39% [1] - Tianli has established a strong presence in Sichuan Province and operates schools across 36 cities in China, providing comprehensive educational services to students [1] - The company has seen significant success in student admissions, with 272 high school graduates receiving offers from the world's top 50 universities in 2024, an increase of 145 from 2023 [2] - The company aims to expand its profitable high school business and enhance its service offerings, including online campus shopping, logistics services, and international education consulting [2] - Adjusted revenue forecasts for FY25-27 are 4.32 billion RMB, 5.64 billion RMB, and 7.39 billion RMB, with net profits of 770 million RMB, 1.02 billion RMB, and 1.35 billion RMB respectively [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - FY25H1 revenue was 1.9 billion RMB, net profit was 390 million RMB, and EPS was 0.1928 RMB, showing significant growth compared to the previous year [1] Educational Achievements - Tianli students excelled in various academic competitions, with 17 students winning provincial first prizes and 272 high school graduates receiving offers from prestigious universities [2] Business Strategy - The company plans to strengthen its high school operations and diversify its service offerings to support student development [2] Revenue Projections - Revised revenue estimates for FY25-27 are 4.32 billion RMB, 5.64 billion RMB, and 7.39 billion RMB, with adjusted net profits of 770 million RMB, 1.02 billion RMB, and 1.35 billion RMB [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][4][6] Core Views - The company reported FY25H1 revenue of 1.876 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 14%, and a net profit of 390 million RMB, up 36.3% year-on-year, indicating performance in line with expectations [1][2] - The mid-term dividend payout ratio remains at 30%, reflecting stable shareholder returns, and the company is expected to benefit from the relatively inelastic demand for private higher education degrees and a stable policy environment [1][3] - The company has significant potential for improving the utilization of existing schools and expanding into diversified new businesses such as management and franchising, which could further enhance growth opportunities [1][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For FY25H1, the comprehensive education services segment generated revenue of 1.013 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 18.9%, driven primarily by a 46.8% year-on-year growth in high school student enrollment [2] - The management and franchising (custodial) business achieved revenue of 56 million RMB, a remarkable year-on-year increase of 116.3%, with the number of managed schools reaching 18, an increase of 8 schools year-on-year [2] - The gross profit margin for FY25H1 reached 37.6%, up 2.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin improved to 20.8%, up 3.4 percentage points year-on-year [3] Valuation and Forecast - The adjusted net profit forecasts for FY25, FY26, and FY27 are 771 million RMB, 995 million RMB, and 1.132 billion RMB respectively, with a target price adjusted slightly to 5.89 HKD, corresponding to an adjusted FY25 PE of approximately 14.8x [4][11] - The report employs a DCF valuation method with a WACC of 10.76% and a perpetual growth rate of 1% [4][10]