根据全美房地产经纪人协会（NAR）周五公布的数据，美国11月成屋销售环比上涨0.5%，预期为上涨1.2%，前值为上涨1.2%。11月成屋销售同 比下降1%。11月成屋销售总数年化413万户，不及预期的415万户，前值为410万户。 高企的房价、居高不下的按揭贷款利率，再加上如今房源供应减少，都在对潜在购房者形成压力。 成屋销售约占美国房地产市场销售量的90%，在过户时计算。通常在过户前的一两个月，签订合同，因此10月份的销售数据主要反映了10月和9 月的购买决定。当时按揭贷款利率一度小幅回落，但随后维持在相对狭窄的区间内波动。 美国的房源供应在今年大部分时间持续回升后，于11月出现回落。数据显示，截至11月底，待售房屋数量为143万套，较10月下降5.9%，但同比 仍增长7.5%。按当前销售速度计算，这相当于4.2个月的供应量。通常认为6个月的供应才是买卖双方相对均衡的状态。 与此同时，已挂牌的卖家下架房源的比例也高于往常。卖家在进入冬季前撤下未售房源本属常态，但今年这一现象明显更为突出。 这进一步推高了房价压力。11月成交的成屋住宅的中位价为40.92万美元，同比上涨1.2%，创下历年11月的最高纪录。 全 ...

Core Insights - The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported a slight increase in existing home sales in the U.S. for September, reaching an annualized rate of 4.06 million units, the highest level in seven months, attributed to lower mortgage rates and a slowdown in home price increases [1][3] - The chief economist of NAR, Dr. Lawrence Yun, indicated that the decline in mortgage rates is boosting housing sales, and improving housing affordability is also contributing to the increase [3] Group 1 - Existing home sales in September reached the highest level since February, indicating a potential thaw in the real estate market after a prolonged freeze [1] - The increase in sales is linked to slightly lower mortgage rates, suggesting a positive shift in buyer sentiment [1][3] - Despite the positive trends, some economists believe that mortgage rates need to drop below 6% (closer to 5.5%) to stimulate a stronger rebound in the market [3] Group 2 - The moderate recovery in sales and an increase in available housing inventory suggest a gradual normalization of the second-hand housing market after nearly three years of stagnation [3] - Concerns remain regarding the potential impact of a weak labor market and uncertainties from a possible federal government shutdown on future demand [3]

Core Insights - The pending home sales in the U.S. experienced the largest decline since September 2022, indicating a sluggish spring sales season due to high prices and borrowing costs [1] - The current housing market is heavily influenced by mortgage rates, with a need for rates to decrease from around 7% to closer to 6% to attract buyers back [1] - Although more homeowners are listing their properties, many are waiting for more affordable financing options before selling [1] Summary by Category Market Performance - Pending home sales fell significantly, marking the largest drop in nearly two years, reflecting a weak performance in the spring selling season [1] - The decline in sales is attributed to potential buyers being deterred by high asking prices and borrowing costs [1] Economic Indicators - The National Association of Realtors (NAR) chief economist, Lawrence Yun, emphasized that the market is currently "completely dominated by mortgage rates" [1] - An increase in housing inventory has not translated into higher sales, indicating a disconnect between supply and demand [1] Future Outlook - The housing market is expected to remain subdued until home prices decrease from record levels and mortgage rates become more favorable [1] - Lower mortgage rates are identified as a critical factor for enticing buyers back into the market [1]