Core Viewpoint - The ongoing military conflict between Iran and Israel is significantly impacting the oil market, leading to increased speculation and investment in oil prices due to geopolitical risks [1][2]. Group 1: Oil Market Reactions - Following the escalation of the Iran-Israel conflict, global funds have surged into the oil market, with a total trading volume of 681,000 options contracts on June 13, including a large number of $80 call options [2][4]. - On June 13, WTI crude oil prices spiked over 14% before settling with a 7.5% increase, reaching $73.18 per barrel, marking the largest single-day gain since March 2022 [3]. - According to JPMorgan's latest report, current oil prices reflect a geopolitical risk premium, with a 7% probability assigned to a worst-case scenario where oil prices could rise exponentially, potentially exceeding a reduction of 2.1 million barrels per day from Iranian exports [3][4]. Group 2: Speculative Positions and ETF Performance - Speculative positions in the NYMEX WTI crude oil market have increased, with net long positions rising to 179,134 contracts, the highest in 19 weeks, while Brent crude net long positions reached 196,922 contracts, a 10-week high [4]. - The A-share oil and gas sector ETFs have also seen significant gains, with the S&P Oil & Gas ETF rising over 6% and the domestic energy chemical ETF initially increasing by 7% before settling at a 3.25% gain [5]. Group 3: Shipping and Transportation Costs - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) rose by 3.36% to 1968 points on June 13, reflecting concerns over potential disruptions in oil supply from the Middle East, with a cumulative increase of 54% over the past month [5]. - Forward freight agreements for transporting Middle Eastern oil to Asia saw a spike of 15% on July contracts, indicating rising shipping costs due to geopolitical tensions [6]. - Historical context suggests that if the Strait of Hormuz were to be closed, the impact on oil prices and shipping rates could be comparable to the effects seen during the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with potential increases in shipping costs of 50%-100% due to war risk premiums and rerouting costs [6].