油价风云突变：10月13日调整或将搁浅？ 牵动万千车主神经的新一轮国内油价调整窗口，已确定将于10月13日24时开启。国庆节前，市场普遍预期油价将迎来大幅上调。然而，随着国际油价近期大 幅跳水，这一预期是否会落空，油价调整最终搁浅？有料财经将为您深度剖析这背后的复杂博弈。 国际油价"跌跌不休" 本周国际原油市场遭遇重挫，伦敦布伦特原油期货价格收报64.36美元/桶，周跌幅超过7%，创下近四个月来的新低。美国WTI原油期货价格也大幅下挫，跌 至60.35美元/桶。 三大因素联手打压油价 有料财经认为，国际油价此番大幅下跌，主要受到以下三大因素的影响： OPEC增产预期升温：华尔街国际金融机构的原油交易员普遍预计，欧佩克将在11月增加13.7万桶/日的原油产量。此外，沙特阿拉伯方面也表示，将根据市 场情况灵活调整原油产量，这进一步强化了市场对原油供应增加的预期。有料财经统计数据显示，欧佩克原油产量已连续五个月呈现增长态势。 | | 汽油(标准品) | 柴油(标准品) | | --- | --- | --- | | 一、实行一省一价的地区 | | | | 北京市 | 8860 | 7855 | | 十十八十 | | ...

邓正红软实力模型揭示，当前油价震荡的本质是石油权力体系从"供给主导"向"需求-风险双轮驱动"的范式转移。石油市场正处于全球能源软实力格局重构 的阵痛期，产油国需在资源整合、价值创新和势能积累三个维度同步突破，才能避免在规则软实力主导的能源秩序中被边缘化。当前油价波动反映了"军事- 能源-货币"三维软实力体系的再平衡过程。欧佩克联盟的增产决策暴露了传统产油国在规则软实力构建上的滞后性。石油市场正从依赖资源储量的硬实力向 掌控定价规则、技术标准和环境话语权的软实力转型。欧佩克连续增产稀释了2020-2023年减产构建的稀缺性势能，导致油价波动区间收窄至每桶10美元。 当前石油市场的软实力博弈。一是欧佩克的战略困境。机械增产策略削弱了其价值创新能力，日增产250万桶的决策受制于特朗普政府政治压力，呈现"被动 响应型"软实力缺陷。拟议的三个月分阶段增产，反映其试图通过"弹性控制"重建市场信任，但可能加剧"高产低价"的负向循环。二是供应端软实力重构。 美国页岩油产业通过数字技术如智能钻井系统实现成本优势，桶油成本降至26.94美元，形成技术主权软实力。伊拉克库尔德地区石油出口恢复暴露了产油 国联盟内部治理软实力的脆弱性 ...

邓正红软实力哲学的核心命题是"规则先于物质"，其理论体系包含三个关键维度：一是隐性知识驱动硬实力转化。将军事打击（如乌克兰无人机袭击）转化 为能源市场的规则制定能力，正是"非对称软实力投射"的典型案例。俄罗斯通过限制燃料出口，将地缘冲突的硬实力转化为全球能源市场的规则影响力。二 是非物质化能力激活硬资源。石油作为战略资源的软实力价值，不仅体现在物理储量，更在于其地缘政治溢价。当前每桶原油中7~9美元的地缘风险附加价 值，本质是市场对能源权力再分配的定价。三是动态适应的活性特征。俄罗斯从被动应对制裁到主动实施出口禁令的转变，展现了能源软实力"资源势能转 化为行为效能"的核心逻辑。 结构性矛盾中的软实力博弈。北约警告引发的制裁预期（可能针对俄石油技术服务领域），暴露出能源软实力的不对称性。一是俄罗斯的负向软实力，通过 供应收缩获得市场定价权；二是欧洲的防御性软实力，战略储备释放（9月日均60万桶）与清洁能源发展、风光发电占比首超化石能源的双重困境；三是乌 克兰的代理型软实力，能源设施袭击使俄原油日加工量降至905万桶，较战前下降12%，间接提升美国页岩油出口竞争力。 石油软实力的未来演化路径。邓正红软实力金字塔模 ...

【重要资讯】 受乌克兰8月以来对俄炼厂累计23次无人机袭击、北半球检修季临近及俄方酝酿出口管制叠加影响，全 球柴油供应紧张预期骤然升温：俄炼油量已降至日均不足500万桶，为2022年4月以来低点，较季节均值 低逾7%，且政府考虑禁止从国内采购后再转口的柴油（汽油出口已停）。供给阴云下，基金在ICE欧洲 柴油（gasoil）净多持仓攀至2022年2月以来最高，本月看涨期权成交创纪录，逾半集中在10月700-750 美元/吨区间，10月期货周二结算价705.75美元；美柴油期权亦录得2018年以来最活跃交易，市场整体 押注柴油裂差上行，对原油期货构成潜在支撑。 海关数据显示，8月标示自印尼抵华原油飙至270万吨、约63万桶/日，较7月翻三倍，远超印尼去年58万 桶/日产量且背离其长期净进口地位，凸显伊朗船货经第三地换单重报的新路径。与此同时，申报自马 来西亚的进口量两月内下滑逾30%。 马来西亚PRefChem炼厂正以FOB柔佛彭格朗条款招标出售约54万桶低硫直馏燃料油，装船期为10月2-3 日，投标截止9月24日 【行情回顾】 截至9月25日，俄乌冲突延续引发潜在供应风险，叠加美国商业原油库存下降，国际油价上涨 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have continued to rise, reaching new highs after a brief pullback following the recent Federal Reserve rate cut, supported by factors such as a weakening U.S. economy, global de-dollarization trends, and geopolitical risk premiums [1][6]. Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25% during the September FOMC meeting, with a vote of 11 in favor and 1 against [3]. - Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments were hawkish, acknowledging a cooling labor market while emphasizing that the rate cut was a risk management decision [3]. Economic Indicators - The Leading Economic Index for August fell by 0.5% to 98.4, marking the largest decline since April and indicating a continued slowdown in economic activity [6]. - Market expectations for future rate cuts appear to be higher than the Fed's projections, with current rate futures implying rates about 0.5% lower than the Fed's dot plot median for the end of next year [3]. De-dollarization Trends - Central banks, particularly the People's Bank of China, have been increasing gold reserves, with China adding gold for the tenth consecutive month as of August [6]. Geopolitical Risks - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the lack of progress in U.S. mediation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and escalating violence in Gaza, contribute to the risk premium in gold prices [6]. Investment Opportunities - The long-term outlook for gold prices remains strong, and investors are encouraged to consider opportunities in gold ETFs and gold stock ETFs during market pullbacks [7].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided reports do not mention any industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - **Equity Index Futures**: A-shares are experiencing an oscillating rebound with the technology sector leading the way. After a significant rally, A-shares may enter a high-level oscillating pattern. Wait for the volatility to further converge before confirming a better entry point [2][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market sentiment remains weak due to the tightening of funds. The short - term bond market may still be sensitive to negative news. Investors are advised to wait and see, paying attention to the movement of funds and the market's expectation of loose monetary policy [5][7]. - **Precious Metals**: Geopolitical events and interest - rate cut expectations have been digested. Precious metals are in a high - level oscillating state. Gold is recommended to be bought cautiously at low prices, and silver can be traded in a band within the range of $40 - 42 [8][9][10]. - **Container Shipping Futures**: The market is expected to be weakly oscillating. Consider shorting the October contract or engaging in a spread arbitrage between the December and October contracts [11][12]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: - **Copper**: The price is expected to oscillate. The short - term interest - rate cut boosts the financial attribute of copper, but the upside is limited. The long - term supply - demand contradiction provides bottom support [13][17]. - **Alumina**: The price is expected to oscillate weakly. Mid - term, consider shorting at high prices. The market is in a state of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand [18][20]. - **Aluminum**: The price is expected to oscillate widely around the actual fulfillment of peak - season demand. The macro - environment provides support, while the fundamental improvement is not strong [21][22]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price is expected to oscillate strongly. Pay attention to the supply of scrap aluminum and the inflection point of inventory [23][24]. - **Zinc**: The price is expected to oscillate. The supply is expected to be loose, and the price upside is limited, while the low inventory provides support [25][28]. - **Tin**: The price is expected to oscillate widely. The supply is tight, and the demand is weak. Pay attention to the import of tin ore from Myanmar [28][31]. - **Nickel**: The price is expected to adjust within a range. The macro - environment is generally stable, and the cost provides some support, but the mid - term supply is abundant [31][33]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price is expected to oscillate within a range. The raw material cost provides support, but the demand is weak [34][37]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is expected to oscillate and consolidate. The supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the market is affected by news [38][41]. - **Black Metals**: - **Steel**: The steel price is weak. The rebar and hot - rolled coil should pay attention to the support levels around 3100 and 3300 respectively. The steel supply and demand have not deteriorated to the negative feedback stage [41][43]. - **Iron Ore**: The price is expected to oscillate and be bullish. The supply is expected to recover, and the demand will increase. The low - level port inventory provides support [45][46]. - **Coking Coal**: The price is expected to oscillate. The coal mines are resuming production, and the supply and demand are easing. The price may continue to decline in September [47][49]. - **Coke**: The price is expected to oscillate. The first round of price cuts has been implemented, and there is still room for further cuts. The supply will gradually become loose [50][52]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Meal Products**: The high - yield expectation of US soybeans suppresses the price, but the domestic cost provides support. The downside of domestic meal products is limited [53][55]. - **Live Pigs**: The market supply - demand contradiction is limited. The price has limited room to fall, but the overall supply - demand pressure is still large [56][57]. - **Corn**: The short - term supply and demand of corn are weak, and the price is under pressure. The mid - term trend is weak [58][59]. 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - **Financial Futures**: - **Equity Index Futures**: A-shares showed an oscillating rebound on Wednesday. The TMT sector was strong, while the chemical sector corrected. The four major equity index futures contracts had mixed performances. The market is affected by domestic and overseas news, and the monetary policy in the second half of the year is crucial for the equity market [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The yield of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market rose. The capital is tightening, and the bond market sentiment is weak. Pay attention to the central bank's subsequent attitude [5][6][7]. - **Precious Metals**: US 8 - month PPI data was lower than expected, and the demand for the 10 - year Treasury bond auction was strong. Gold and silver prices showed a high - level oscillation. The Fed's policy path and geopolitical events affect the price. Gold is recommended to be bought cautiously at low prices, and silver can be traded in a band [8][9][10]. - **Container Shipping Futures**: The spot price of container shipping continued to decline slowly. The SCFIS European line index and the SCFI composite index showed different trends. The supply of container ships increased, and the demand was affected by the PMI of different regions. The futures price is expected to be weakly oscillating [11][12]. Commodity Futures - **Non - ferrous Metals**: - **Copper**: The spot price of copper declined slightly. The US 8 - month PPI data boosted the interest - rate cut expectation. The supply of copper concentrate was tight, and the demand was marginally improved. The inventory situation was mixed. The copper price is affected by the macro - environment and fundamentals, and is expected to oscillate [13][15][17]. - **Alumina**: The spot price of alumina declined. The supply was high, the demand was weak, and the inventory was increasing. The price is expected to oscillate weakly, and consider shorting at high prices in the mid - term [18][20]. - **Aluminum**: The spot price of aluminum declined slightly. The supply of electrolytic aluminum was high, and the demand was marginally improved. The inventory situation was mixed. The aluminum price is affected by the macro - environment and fundamentals, and is expected to oscillate around the peak - season demand [20][21][22]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The spot price of aluminum alloy was stable. The supply was affected by the season, and the demand was marginally improved. The inventory was increasing. The price is expected to oscillate strongly, and pay attention to the supply of scrap aluminum [23][24]. - **Zinc**: The spot price of zinc declined. The supply of zinc ore was loose, and the demand was about to enter the peak season. The inventory situation was mixed. The zinc price is expected to oscillate, and the upside is limited [25][27][28]. - **Tin**: The spot price of tin declined slightly. The supply of tin ore was tight, and the demand was weak. The price is expected to oscillate widely, and pay attention to the import of tin ore from Myanmar [28][30][31]. - **Nickel**: The spot price of nickel declined. The supply of refined nickel was high, and the demand was stable in some sectors and weak in others. The inventory situation was mixed. The price is expected to adjust within a range [31][32][33]. - **Stainless Steel**: The spot price of stainless steel was stable. The supply was expected to increase, and the demand was weak. The inventory was slowly decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate within a range, and pay attention to the raw material and demand [34][36][37]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot price of lithium carbonate declined. The supply was affected by various factors, and the demand was stable. The inventory was decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate and consolidate, and pay attention to the news [38][39][41]. - **Black Metals**: - **Steel**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil showed different trends. The cost and profit situation of steel changed. The supply was affected by production restrictions and was expected to recover. The demand was in the off - season and was expected to improve seasonally. The inventory was increasing. The steel price is expected to be affected by the supply of coking coal [41][42][43]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot price of iron ore declined slightly. The futures price was stable. The supply decreased significantly, and the demand was expected to increase. The inventory situation was mixed. The price is expected to oscillate and be bullish [45][46]. - **Coking Coal**: The futures price of coking coal declined. The supply was affected by production restrictions and was expected to recover. The demand was expected to increase. The inventory was decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate and decline in September [47][48][49]. - **Coke**: The futures price of coke had a mixed performance. The first - round price cut was implemented, and there was still room for further cuts. The supply was expected to increase, and the demand was expected to recover. The inventory situation was mixed. The price is expected to oscillate [50][51][52]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Meal Products**: The domestic spot price of soybean meal declined slightly, and the trading volume increased. The spot price of rapeseed meal was stable, and the trading volume was zero. The high - yield expectation of US soybeans and various supply - demand factors affected the price. The domestic cost provides support [53][54][55]. - **Live Pigs**: The spot price of live pigs declined slightly. The inventory of breeding sows increased slightly, and the profit of different breeding modes changed. The supply - demand contradiction is limited, and the price has limited room to fall [56][57]. - **Corn**: The spot price of corn had different trends in different regions. The inventory of old - season corn was tight, and the new - season corn was about to be listed. The demand was weak. The short - term supply and demand are weak, and the mid - term trend is weak [58][59].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Chlor - Alkali Industry - The caustic soda futures price may have limited downside space. The spot price may remain firm in the short - term due to low inventory pressure on caustic soda enterprises and expected supply decline. Attention should be paid to the alumina plant's purchasing rhythm and device fluctuations [2]. - The PVC futures price will continue to be weakly volatile. The supply - demand pressure increases, and the demand has not improved. Although in the traditional peak season, the demand remains sluggish. The cost side provides some support [2]. Methanol Industry - On the supply side, inland maintenance devices are expected to gradually resume in early September, and the import volume will still be large. On the demand side, traditional downstream sectors are still weak. The port has been significantly accumulating inventory, and the basis is weak. The key is to focus on the inventory digestion rhythm [5]. Urea Industry - The urea futures price is running weakly due to the short - term imbalance of domestic supply - demand fundamentals. The supply is abundant, while the demand is weak, leading to inventory accumulation in factories [11]. Crude Oil Industry - The overnight oil price continued to fluctuate widely. The current oil price is supported by geopolitical premiums, but the upside space is restricted by the loose fundamentals. It is recommended to mainly observe on the long - short side and wait for opportunities to expand the spread on the options side [44]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: The supply is gradually increasing to a relatively high level, and the mid - term supply - demand is expected to be tight. The price has support at the low level, but the upside space of the rebound is limited. It is recommended to treat PX11 as a short - term shock between 6600 - 6900 [39]. - PTA: The supply - demand in September is expected to be tight, but the basis and processing fee repair drive are limited. It is recommended to treat TA as a short - term shock between 4600 - 4800 and mainly conduct TA1 - 5 rolling reverse spreads [39]. - Ethylene glycol: The supply - demand pattern is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term. It is expected to slightly reduce inventory in September and enter the inventory accumulation channel in the fourth quarter. Attention should be paid to the support of EG01 at around 4300 and the EG1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity [39]. - Short - fiber: The short - term supply - demand pattern is still weak, following the raw material fluctuations. The unilateral strategy is the same as that of PTA, and the processing fee on the disk fluctuates between 800 - 1000 [39]. - Bottle chips: In September, the supply and demand may both decrease, and the inventory is expected to increase. PR follows the cost fluctuations, and the processing fee has limited upside space [39]. Polyolefin Industry - For PP, the loss of PDH is intensifying, and the basis has weakened rapidly. For PE, the current maintenance is still at a relatively high level, and the supply pressure is relatively limited in the short - term. The overall market will present a pattern of "decreasing supply and increasing demand" [49][51]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - Pure benzene: The supply in September is lower than expected, and the demand support is weakening. The supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the price is driven by the strong oil price. BZ2603 is expected to follow styrene and fluctuate strongly [57]. - Styrene: The short - term drive is weak, but the supply - demand is expected to improve in the future. The price is supported by the oil price, but the rebound space is limited by high inventory. EB10 can be treated with low - buying on a rolling basis, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 7200 and the spread expansion between EB11 - BZ11 [57]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Prices**: The spot prices of caustic soda and PVC remained stable on September 10, while the futures prices showed different degrees of changes. For example, SH2509 of caustic soda increased by 7.0%, and V2509 of PVC increased by 0.1% [2]. - **Supply**: The caustic soda industry's operating rate is expected to decline next week due to maintenance. The PVC supply has an upward expectation as some device maintenance is restored [2]. - **Demand**: The demand for caustic soda is expected to weaken, especially from the alumina industry. The PVC demand has not improved, and downstream product enterprises maintain a low operating rate [2]. - **Inventory**: The liquid caustic soda inventory in East China factories decreased, while the PVC upstream factory inventory and total social inventory increased slightly [2]. Methanol Industry - **Prices**: On September 10, the methanol futures and spot prices showed different degrees of increase. For example, MA2601 increased by 0.38%, and the spot price in Inner Mongolia's northern line increased by 1.31% [4]. - **Inventory**: The methanol enterprise inventory, port inventory, and social inventory all increased. The port inventory increased by 8.59% [4]. - **Operating Rate**: The upstream domestic and overseas enterprise operating rates increased, while some downstream operating rates decreased, such as the formaldehyde and glacial acetic acid operating rates [5]. Urea Industry - **Prices**: The urea futures price is running weakly. The spot prices in different regions showed little change on September 10 [11]. - **Supply**: The daily output of urea remains at a high level, and some maintenance devices are expected to resume production [11]. - **Demand**: The agricultural demand is in the off - season, and the industrial demand is for rigid procurement, resulting in insufficient total demand [11]. - **Inventory**: The domestic urea factory inventory increased, while the port inventory remained unchanged [11]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices**: On September 11, the prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil increased slightly. The spreads between different contracts and regions also changed [44]. - **Supply - Demand Data**: According to EIA data, the U.S. crude oil production, refinery operating rate, and various inventory changes are shown in the report [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices**: On September 10, the prices of upstream crude oil, naphtha, and PX increased slightly, while the prices of some downstream polyester products decreased, such as the polyester bottle chip price [39]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester products showed different degrees of changes. For example, the Asian PX operating rate increased by 0.9% [39]. - **Inventory**: The MEG port inventory is at a low level, and the arrival volume in early September is moderately low [39]. Polyolefin Industry - **Prices**: On September 10, the futures prices of LLDPE and PP showed small changes, and the spot prices remained stable [49]. - **Operating Rate**: The PE device operating rate decreased slightly, and the PP device operating rate increased. The downstream weighted operating rates of both increased slightly [49]. - **Inventory**: The PE enterprise inventory increased, and the PP enterprise inventory decreased. The PP trader inventory increased [49]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Prices**: On September 10, the prices of upstream crude oil, naphtha, and pure benzene increased slightly, while the price of styrene remained stable [57]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of some pure benzene and styrene downstream products decreased, while the styrene operating rate increased [57]. - **Inventory**: The pure benzene and styrene inventories in Jiangsu ports decreased [57].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that oil prices are unlikely to see significant upward momentum this year due to increased domestic production and the threat of U.S. tariffs suppressing demand growth [1][2] - A Reuters survey of 31 economists and analysts predicts that the average price of Brent crude oil will be $67.65 per barrel in 2025, which is similar to the July forecast of $67.84 [1] - WTI crude oil is expected to average $64.65 per barrel, slightly up from the previous estimate of $64.61 [1] Group 2 - OPEC+ has agreed to increase oil production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, with expectations that they may continue to raise output [2] - Analysts suggest that the focus on market share over higher oil prices could lead to significant oversupply in the oil market in 2025 and 2026, which would depress prices [2] - The geopolitical risks, particularly related to the U.S. and Russia, are expected to provide some support for oil prices despite the anticipated oversupply [2][3] Group 3 - Global oil demand is projected to grow by 500,000 to 1.1 million barrels per day by 2025, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasting a growth of 680,000 barrels per day [2] - OPEC has raised its forecast for global oil demand growth for next year while lowering estimates for supply growth from the U.S. and other non-OPEC+ producers [2]

Group 1 - International oil prices declined due to geopolitical risks and macroeconomic data, with NYMEX light crude oil futures for September dropping by $1.16 to $62.80 per barrel, a decrease of 1.81%, and Brent crude for October falling by $0.99 to $65.85 per barrel, down 1.48% [1] - Analysts from Saxo Bank indicated that geopolitical risk premiums related to the US-Russia leaders' meeting are a significant driver of oil prices, suggesting that unless talks break down severely, macroeconomic factors may continue to limit oil price increases [1] - MUFG analysts noted that any changes in US sanctions on Russia could reshape the disrupted oil trade due to the Ukraine conflict, with Russia increasingly relying on discounted oil exports to China and India [1] Group 2 - UBS analysts highlighted that market focus is on the potential for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, with expectations shifting towards increased Russian production [2] - Even if a ceasefire is achieved, the relaxation of US sanctions on Russia may take longer due to the need for Congressional approval [2] - The US Department of Commerce reported that retail and food service sales in July amounted to $726.3 billion, a 0.5% month-over-month increase, which was in line with market expectations but lower than June's 0.9% increase [2] Group 3 - Market participants believe that macroeconomic data released by China on the same day contributed to the downward pressure on oil prices [3] - Baker Hughes reported that the number of active oil rigs in the US increased by one to 412, but this represents a year-over-year decrease of 71 rigs, while Canada saw an increase of four rigs to 126, also down 25 rigs year-over-year [3]

Group 1 - International oil prices experienced the largest weekly decline since late June, with US oil dropping by 5.12% and Brent oil by 4.42% [1][3] - The decline in oil prices is attributed to geopolitical risk premium easing as the market anticipates a potential meeting between US and Russian leaders regarding a peace agreement in Ukraine, along with OPEC+ planning to increase production in September [3] Group 2 - International gold prices rose by 2.69% last week, driven by market optimism regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve following the nomination of a new board member [3] - The increase in gold prices is also influenced by trade policy impacts, as two Swiss gold refineries have reduced or suspended gold exports to the US [3]