Group 1 - International oil prices declined due to geopolitical risks and macroeconomic data, with NYMEX light crude oil futures for September dropping by $1.16 to $62.80 per barrel, a decrease of 1.81%, and Brent crude for October falling by $0.99 to $65.85 per barrel, down 1.48% [1] - Analysts from Saxo Bank indicated that geopolitical risk premiums related to the US-Russia leaders' meeting are a significant driver of oil prices, suggesting that unless talks break down severely, macroeconomic factors may continue to limit oil price increases [1] - MUFG analysts noted that any changes in US sanctions on Russia could reshape the disrupted oil trade due to the Ukraine conflict, with Russia increasingly relying on discounted oil exports to China and India [1] Group 2 - UBS analysts highlighted that market focus is on the potential for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, with expectations shifting towards increased Russian production [2] - Even if a ceasefire is achieved, the relaxation of US sanctions on Russia may take longer due to the need for Congressional approval [2] - The US Department of Commerce reported that retail and food service sales in July amounted to $726.3 billion, a 0.5% month-over-month increase, which was in line with market expectations but lower than June's 0.9% increase [2] Group 3 - Market participants believe that macroeconomic data released by China on the same day contributed to the downward pressure on oil prices [3] - Baker Hughes reported that the number of active oil rigs in the US increased by one to 412, but this represents a year-over-year decrease of 71 rigs, while Canada saw an increase of four rigs to 126, also down 25 rigs year-over-year [3]

上周国际油价创下6月底以来最大单周跌幅 上周，市场等待美俄两国元首可能会晤的消息，令投资者关注俄乌达成和平协议，地缘政治风险溢价消 退，加之"欧佩克+"将于9月再次增产，国际油价下跌，美油上周累计下跌5.12%，布油累计下跌 4.42%，国际油价创下6月底以来最大单周跌幅。 上周国际金价累计上涨2.69% 上周，美国政府提名美联储空缺理事职务，令市场更加看好美联储年内降息前景，另外因受关税政策影 响，已有两家瑞士黄金精炼厂减少或暂停对美国的黄金出口，多个因素推高国际金价，上周国际金价累 计上涨2.69%。 ...

Group 1: Oil Price Trends - Short-term seasonal demand is strong, supported by concerns over Russian oil supply due to U.S. sanctions[2] - Brent crude oil price is expected to have a support level around $65 per barrel in Q3 2025, but may decline to below $60 after the peak season[7] - EIA predicts the average Brent crude oil price for 2025 to be $69 per barrel, up by $3 from the previous forecast[7] Group 2: OPEC+ Production and Supply - OPEC+ plans to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day starting August 2025, with a total recovery plan of 1.66 million barrels per day under consideration[4] - OPEC's June 2025 oil production was 27,237 thousand barrels per day, an increase of 219 thousand barrels per day from May[9] - Non-OPEC DoC countries' oil production increased by 129 thousand barrels per day in June 2025, with Kazakhstan showing a significant increase[16] Group 3: Global Oil Demand - Global oil demand is projected to reach 105.1 million barrels per day in 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 1.29 million barrels per day[23] - China's oil demand is expected to be 16.9 million barrels per day in 2025, with a slight decrease from the previous month but still showing a year-on-year increase[23] - The demand for gasoline, aviation kerosene, and diesel is expected to drive oil demand growth, despite potential declines in gasoline consumption in China[38]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2509 is expected to run weakly, with a short - term, medium - term, and intraday view of being volatile, and the intraday view is specifically volatile and weak [1][5]. - The geopolitical risk premium increase was the main driver for the recent oil price rebound, but after the digestion of previous positive factors, the contract 2509 closed significantly lower by 2.86% to 513.0 yuan/barrel on the night session of last Friday, and is expected to maintain a volatile and weak trend on Monday [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Time - cycle and View - For the crude oil 2509 contract, the short - term view is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is volatile and weak, with an overall view of weak operation [1]. Price Movement and Logic - Geopolitical risks, such as the Trump administration's tough stance on Russia and potential energy trade restrictions, along with OPEC+ maintaining the September production increase plan but with actual supply growth possibly falling short of expectations, and summer demand peak and tight inventory, were the reasons for the previous oil price rebound [5]. - After the digestion of previous positive factors, the domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract closed 2.86% lower to 513.0 yuan/barrel on the night session of last Friday, and is expected to be volatile and weak on Monday [5].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report [1][5] 2. Core View The report suggests that the domestic crude oil futures contract 2509 is expected to run weakly and maintain a volatile and slightly weak trend on Friday. In the short - term, it will be volatile, and in the medium - term, it will also be volatile [1][5] 3. Summary by Related Contents Price and Trend - The domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract slightly closed down 0.71% to 528.2 yuan/barrel on Thursday night. It is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly weak trend on Friday [5] Core Logic - Geopolitical risk premium increase is the main driving force for the recent oil price rebound. The Trump administration's tough stance on Russia may lead to restricted energy trade. While OPEC+ maintains the production increase plan for September, the actual supply growth may fall short of expectations. The peak summer demand season combined with tight inventories may support short - term oil prices [5] Time - cycle Views - For the crude oil 2509 contract, the short - term view is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is volatile and slightly weak with a reference view of weak operation [1][5]

Market Overview - On July 30, US stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones down 0.38%, S&P 500 down 0.12%, and Nasdaq up 0.15% [1] - Major technology stocks experienced varied performance, with Nvidia rising over 2% and Apple falling more than 1% [3] Gold and Precious Metals - Gold stocks fell across the board, with notable declines including US Gold down over 7%, AngloGold down over 5%, and Kinross Gold down over 3% [5] - International precious metal futures saw a general decline, with COMEX gold futures down 1.58% to $3327.9 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 2.90% to $37.175 per ounce [12][13] Copper Sector - Copper mining stocks experienced significant drops, with Freeport-McMoRan down nearly 10% and a cumulative decline of 13% over the last five trading days [8] - Hudbay Minerals fell nearly 7%, and Southern Copper dropped over 6% [8] Economic Indicators - The US Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50% following a two-day monetary policy meeting [1] - The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported a 3.0% annual growth rate for real GDP in Q2 2025, reversing a previous contraction of -0.5% in Q1 [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the geopolitical risk premium related to the Middle East tension fading, oil prices dropped significantly this week. The market is shifting its focus to OPEC+'s production policy and Trump's decision on reciprocal tariffs, and the US will hold talks with Iran next week. Fundamentally, global oil products were de-stocked in late June, with the de-stocking slope slightly exceeding expectations. The US commercial crude oil inventory reached the lowest level in the same period in history. The WTI fundamentals are positive, while domestic refinery profits rebounded. However, OPEC+ is preparing to significantly increase production again in August, and the expected acceleration of non-OPEC production in the fourth quarter limits the upside space of absolute prices. A positive spread trading strategy is recommended for the price difference, and attention should be paid to the impact of tariff policies on absolute prices [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Data - From June 27 to July 3, WTI decreased by $0.45, BRENT decreased by $0.31, and DUBAI decreased by $0.35. SC increased by 8.10 yuan, and OMAN decreased by $1.16. Japanese naphtha CFR and Singapore fuel oil 380CST also showed certain price changes [3] 3.2 News - Trump's "Big and Beautiful Bill" ends long - term support for solar and wind energy, creates a friendly environment for oil, gas, and coal production, and gradually cancels tax credits for clean power investment and production in wind and solar energy [3] - OPEC+ is discussing an 8 - month production increase of 41.1 barrels per day, and the decision will be further discussed at the online meeting this weekend [4] - Iran's deputy foreign minister said that Iran does not intend to stop uranium enrichment activities and will not take further retaliatory actions against the US [4] 3.3 Regional Fundamentals - In the week of June 27, US crude oil exports decreased by 1.965 million barrels per day, domestic production decreased by 0.2 million barrels, commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 3.845 million barrels, and strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 0.239 million barrels. The average supply of US crude oil products in four weeks decreased by 1.12% year - on - year [4][5] - This week, the operating rate of major refineries in China increased, while that of Shandong local refineries decreased. The production of gasoline and diesel in China increased, and the sales - to - production ratio of local refineries for gasoline and diesel increased. Gasoline and diesel inventories accumulated this week. The comprehensive profit of major refineries rebounded, and that of local refineries recovered [5]

Group 1 - OPEC+ is discussing a production increase of 411,000 barrels per day for August, following similar increases in May, June, and July to regain market share [1] - The additional production may exacerbate global oil oversupply and put downward pressure on prices [1] - Brent crude oil futures are currently trading around $68 per barrel, which aligns with U.S. President Trump's calls to lower fuel prices [1] Group 2 - Barclays Bank has raised its Brent crude oil price forecasts for 2025 and 2026, citing improved demand outlook [1][2] - The bank's report indicates that global oil inventories decreased in Q2, driven by stronger demand growth and weak non-OPEC supply growth [2] - Barclays has increased its global demand growth forecast by 260,000 barrels per day, primarily from OECD countries, with U.S. oil demand expected to grow by 130,000 barrels per day this year [3] Group 3 - Despite OPEC+ accelerating production growth, actual output may lag due to pressures on some member countries to limit production [3] - OPEC+'s target production increased by 548,000 barrels per day from March to May 2025, but overall output remained stable, improving compliance rates [3]

Group 1: U.S. Employment Data and Economic Outlook - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, significantly exceeding the expected 110,000, with the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropping to 4.1% [3] - This strong employment data indicates the resilience of the U.S. economy, leading to a reassessment of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path [3] - Initial jobless claims fell to 233,000, marking a six-week low, which reflects ongoing tightness in the labor market [3] Group 2: Dollar Strength and Oil Prices - The robust employment data has led to a rebound in the U.S. dollar index, which is now around 97, providing cost support for oil priced in dollars [2][3] - The market's expectations for a rate cut in July have diminished, with the probability of a September rate cut dropping to around 80% [2] Group 3: OPEC+ Production and Geopolitical Risks - OPEC+ is set to discuss a plan to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in August during their meeting on July 6, marking the fourth consecutive month of exceeding production expectations [4] - Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports rose by 450,000 barrels per day in June compared to May, reaching a new high in over a year, indicating a proactive approach to releasing production capacity [4] - The geopolitical risk premium has significantly decreased following a ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel, reducing concerns over supply disruptions in the Middle East [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the geopolitical risk premium related to the tense situation in the Middle East fading, oil prices dropped significantly this week. The market is turning to OPEC+ production policy formulation and Trump's decision on reciprocal tariffs, and the US will hold talks with Iran next week. Fundamentally, global oil products were destocked in late June, with the destocking slope slightly exceeding expectations and the inventory being overall neutral to high. The US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 5.836 million barrels per day in the week of June 20th, currently at the lowest level in the same period of history. The WTI fundamentals are improving, while domestic refinery profits are rebounding and the Dubai monthly spread has strengthened recently. However, OPEC+ is preparing to significantly increase production by 414,000 barrels per day again in August. Overall, the fundamentals are still in the summer peak season, the supply - demand contradiction in the US market is large, and the upward space for absolute prices is limited. Maintain a positive spread trading strategy and pay attention to the impact of tariff policies on absolute prices [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily News - Saudi Arabia is exporting crude oil at the fastest pace in over a year, with exports increasing by 441,000 barrels per day to 6.36 million barrels per day in June, an increase of about 7%. - US President Trump said he will fill the strategic petroleum reserve when market conditions are right. - Mexico's oil production has dropped to the level of the late 1970s, with exports in June dropping to a record low of 529,000 barrels per day. - Iran was reported to have loaded mines onto ships in the Persian Gulf last month, preparing to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz. - The API crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending June 28th was 680,000 barrels, compared with an expected - 2.257 million barrels and a previous value of - 4.277 million barrels [3][4] 2. Regional Fundamentals - In the week of June 20th, US crude oil exports decreased by 91,000 barrels per day to 4.27 million barrels per day, while domestic production increased by 400 barrels to 13.435 million barrels per day. - The commercial crude oil inventory excluding strategic reserves decreased by 5.836 million barrels to 415 million barrels, a decrease of 1.39%. - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.049 million barrels per day, a 1.6% decrease compared to the same period last year. - The US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 237,000 barrels to 402.5 million barrels, an increase of 0.06%. - The import of commercial crude oil excluding strategic reserves in the US was 5.944 million barrels per day, an increase of 440,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week. - This week, the operating rate of major refineries in China increased, while that of Shandong local refineries decreased. The production of gasoline and diesel in China both increased, and the sales - to - production ratio of local refineries for both gasoline and diesel increased. Gasoline and diesel inventories accumulated this week, and the comprehensive profits of major refineries and local refineries rebounded [4] 3. Weekly Viewpoints - As the geopolitical risk premium related to the Middle East situation fades, oil prices dropped significantly this week. The market focuses on OPEC+ production policy and Trump's tariff decision, and the US - Iran talks are upcoming. - In late June, global oil products were destocked, with the US commercial crude oil inventory at a historical low in the same period. The WTI fundamentals are improving, and domestic refinery profits are rebounding. - OPEC+ plans to increase production by 414,000 barrels per day in August. The upward space for absolute oil prices is limited, and a positive spread trading strategy is recommended. Attention should be paid to the impact of tariff policies on absolute prices [5]