Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the volatility of global assets and identifies the best-performing safe-haven assets based on historical data analysis over the past 20 years, emphasizing the importance of risk-adjusted returns in investment strategies [4][21]. Group 1: Market Volatility - The recent market fluctuations have been more significant compared to previous years, with the A-share market performing relatively well, while the US stock market has experienced a notable decline of over 20% in the last two months [4][6]. - Long-term investors may view recent downturns as mere corrections, but those who entered the market in January may feel the impact of a 2.6%+ decline over a month [6]. Group 2: Key Metrics for Safe-Haven Assets - Important metrics for evaluating safe-haven assets include maximum drawdown, recovery time from drawdowns, and the probability of positive returns over various holding periods [11][12][13]. - The analysis includes various global stock markets, bond markets, commodities, and cash-like investments to determine their performance as safe-haven assets [14][15]. Group 3: Performance of Safe-Haven Assets - The analysis reveals that Chinese money market funds are the top-performing safe-haven asset, with only a 0.03% maximum drawdown and a 100% probability of positive returns over one year [19][21]. - In contrast, US short-term government bonds have a lower positive return probability of only 40% during low-interest periods, indicating their limited effectiveness as a safe haven [21]. Group 4: Comparison of Bonds and Gold - Chinese bonds exhibit a maximum drawdown of 14.52% with a high probability of positive returns over five years, while US bonds have a maximum drawdown of 51.76% and a less than 50% probability of positive returns annually [24]. - Gold has shown significant price increases recently but has also experienced substantial drawdowns in the past, highlighting the need for caution regarding its volatility [25]. Group 5: Stock Market Performance - The Indian stock market demonstrates the highest risk-return efficiency, with a 97.89% probability of positive returns over five years, outperforming US and Chinese markets [26][28]. - Emerging markets, such as Vietnam, show extreme volatility, with a maximum drawdown of 79.35%, indicating high risk for investors [29][30]. Group 6: Multi-Asset Strategy - A balanced risk parity strategy combining A-shares, Taiwanese stocks, US bonds, gold, and Chinese money market funds yields a Sharpe ratio of 1.134, indicating superior risk-adjusted returns compared to individual assets [34][35]. - This multi-asset approach provides stability and a high probability of positive returns over various holding periods, making it a viable long-term investment strategy [35].