2025 年春节过后 ， D eep S eek的横空出世引领出了 A 股市场的科技主线 ， 而后被特朗普来回横跳的 关税政策猝不及防地打乱了节奏 。 关税博弈下 ， 市场到底走到哪一步了 ？ 对此 ， 联博基金副总经理 、 投资总监朱良用 "市场湿度" 这一概念进行了回答 ： "4 月 7 日 ， 我们的 湿度计指标达到了 81%， 是一个阶段性的高点 ； 在此之后 ， 则表现出向均值回归的状态 。 " 经常看到有人用 "温度"来描述市场 ， 而鲜少有人使用 "湿度"来注解投资情绪 。 朱良表示 ， "湿度计"指标源于联博集团的 "量化基本面"研究框架 ， 衡量的是 市场波动中有多大的比例 是由贝塔来解释的 。 可以理解为投资者群体性行为给市场带来了多大的影响 ， 是投资者能够直接体感到 的市场情绪 。 朱良补充道 ， "当贝塔解释市场波动的比例很高时 ， 市场情绪大概率是极悲或极乐 。 2018 年 10 月 ， 贸易战 1 . 0 时期 ， 湿度计指标达到了 83%； 去年 ' 9 . 24 行情 '中 ， 10 月 8 日的湿度指标达到了 87%， 都是阶段性的情绪峰值 —— 对比下来 ， 我们认为 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of tariff policies on the A-share market and highlights the investment opportunities arising from the current market conditions, particularly through the lens of the "humidity" concept introduced by Zhu Liang, the Deputy General Manager and Investment Director of Lianbo Fund [2][3]. Market Conditions - The "humidity" indicator reached a peak of 81% on April 7, indicating a high level of market sentiment, which has since shown signs of mean reversion [2]. - Historical comparisons show that during previous market turmoil, such as the trade war in October 2018 and the market fluctuations in September 2022, the humidity indicators reached even higher levels, suggesting that the negative impacts of the current tariff events may have largely been priced in [3]. Investment Strategy - Lianbo Fund's new public offering, Lianbo Zhiyuan Mixed Fund, aims to provide an "all-weather" investment solution through a balanced allocation strategy that combines both growth and value stocks [4]. - The fund seeks to minimize volatility by finding a "greatest common divisor" in style switching, ensuring a reasonable allocation between growth and value stocks [6][8]. Stock Selection - The fund emphasizes selecting stocks with "anti-fragile" characteristics, focusing on companies with predictable earnings models and stable cash flows, which are more likely to thrive across different economic cycles [10]. - Zhu Liang stresses the importance of buying high-quality companies during market lows, as valuation is seen as a dynamic expectation rather than a static number [11]. Historical Context - Lianbo's long-term commitment to the Chinese market is highlighted, with a history of over 30 years of investment and research in the region, demonstrating a deep understanding of local market dynamics [12][13]. - The article draws parallels between past market recoveries and the current situation, suggesting that sectors like consumer goods may emerge as leaders once the current turmoil subsides [15][16].