Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the cotton market comprehensively, concluding that the overall situation is neutral. The short - term futures are expected to fluctuate upwards due to factors such as the reduction of export tariffs to the US by 10%, the end of domestic new cotton picking, cost support, and the expectation of consumption recovery. The trading focus is shifting from the 01 contract to the 05 contract as the 01 contract approaches delivery [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Previous Day Review No relevant information provided. 2. Daily Hints - **Fundamentals**: Different institutions have different estimates for the 25/26 cotton production and consumption. For example, ICAC estimates production at 2540 tons and consumption at 2500 tons; USDA estimates production at 2614.5 tons and consumption at 2588.3 tons; Rural Ministry estimates production at 660 tons, import at 140 tons, consumption at 740 tons, and ending inventory at 845 tons. In October, textile and clothing exports decreased by 12.63% year - on - year, cotton imports decreased by 15.6% year - on - year, and yarn imports increased by 16.7% year - on - year [5]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b is 14882, with a basis of 1297 (05 contract), indicating a premium over futures, which is bullish [5]. - **Inventory**: The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture estimates the ending inventory for the 25/26 period in November to be 845 tons, which is bearish [5]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [5]. - **Main Position**: The net short position is decreasing, but the main trend is still bearish [5]. - **Expectation**: With a 10% reduction in export tariffs to the US, the end of domestic new cotton picking, cost support, and the peak inventory period passed, there is an expectation of consumption recovery. The futures are expected to fluctuate upwards in the short term [5]. 3. Today's Focus No relevant information provided. 4. Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: There are production, consumption, import, export, and ending inventory data for multiple countries in different years. For example, in 25/26, the total production is estimated to be 2614.5 tons, total consumption is 2588.3 tons, and total ending inventory is 1653.2 tons [13][14]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 25/26 period, the production is 2539.956 tons, consumption is 2500.778 tons, and ending inventory is 1622.785 tons [16]. - **China Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 25/26 period, the production is estimated to be 660 tons, import is 140 tons, consumption is 740 tons, and ending inventory is 845 tons [17]. 5. Position Data No relevant information provided.